GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 532
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/24/2007 5:00:24 PM | message detail |
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The "No More Noble Nine!" edition! I'm assuming it's either the Elite
Eight or.... [Something] Ten. Vincent has only lost to Crono and Sonic,
soooo.... join the club? =p *Creativename's websites* Everything you could ever imagine: http://www.GameFAQsContests.com http://www.sc2k5.com http://www.sc2k4.com Sortable Table for Every Contest Match: http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19 *Extrapolated Standings* Explanation of Extrapolated Standings: http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11 Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings: A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left): http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/ *Solarshadow's Sites* Summer 2002 Contest: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com Summer 2003 Contest: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating) http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html *Old Stats topics* Summer 2002 Contest: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html Summer 2003 Contest: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note) 2003-2004 Off-Season: http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note) Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL. Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them): http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them): http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm *Match Pictures* All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones! http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php *Miscellaneous* Creativename's Page of Links: http://sc2k4.com/links.php UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language): http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language): http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches: http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm All Time Top 10 Lists: http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2002stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2003stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2004stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2004stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2005stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2005stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/july2006stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2006stats.htm RPguy's Hourly Poll Updates: www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/contest.html HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 TRE's poll listing (every poll!): http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html Aprosenf's Poll Script: http://adamrose.mit.edu/allpolls.txt GameFAQs' Top 100 Games http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/top10 Manual Poll Updater: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php ~*ST*~ |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/24/2007 5:02:32 PM | message detail |
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From Naomi_Diamond Posted 10/24/2007 7:49:30 PM #170 See? This is what I'm getting at. We have people on one end saying that "this" is what determines the NN, while on the other hand we have people saying that "that" is what determines the NN... and it just appears to be going back and forth, with metaphors, comparisons, and all that other unnecessary junk somewhere in between. I am calling dibs on the Tenacious Ten. Tenacious Ten has my vote! ~*ST*~ --- Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=37308859 |
| creativename | Posted 10/24/2007 7:58:16 PM | message detail |
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Top Ten is the most obvious. You can also do "Top Ten Reasons why suck-and-such..." with it. I doubt any Tx Ten will catch on though. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 10/24/2007 7:59:34 PM | message detail |
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Need some input on which graph format people like. Just cumulative and just update separate, like it is now. Or - both cumulative and updates, e.g. http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2914&type=2 How do people want it? --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 10/24/2007 8:01:50 PM | message detail |
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And the Noble Nine comes to a close. Good job Crono! --- Play clean. Play hard. Play to win. Play for the game. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/24/2007 8:03:16 PM | message detail |
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lol @ people not understanding the concept that we ourselves made At any rate, Zero lost, and lost bad. This will be my last stats topic post until next contest. In short, lol bt TuRtLe ~~~ 245/304 in the contest. Next pick: Link > ZERO BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/24/2007 8:05:12 PM | message detail |
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I like combining them. Makes it easier to figure out. ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/24/2007 8:05:31 PM | message detail |
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oh god this is too good to be true. ^ --- ~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ Arsenal FC: 8-0-1. Pts: 25. Position: 1st L5: W-W-W-W-W |
| Haste_2 | Posted 10/24/2007 8:06:20 PM | message detail |
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This one's tough to beat. http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=1660&type=1 --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/24/2007 8:07:58 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2874&type=1 I win. ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2007 8:08:38 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2084&type=1 I win. --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/24/2007 8:09:30 PM | message detail |
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While symmetrical, it isn't epic at all. =/ ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| creativename | Posted 10/24/2007 8:09:44 PM | message detail |
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Also, on the 2-character polls, there's the option of either having the
per update and cumulative the same color, or having them different
colors (something that happened originally by accident). I think in 4-way polls, having 8 colors would get way too confusing; but having 4 colors in 2-way polls might not be so bad. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/24/2007 8:09:54 PM | message detail |
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...Wait, that kindof looks like a sword. Nevermind. <_< ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/24/2007 8:10:11 PM | message detail |
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I like them separate, but that's because I definitely like there being curves instead of spikes. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/24/2007 8:10:22 PM | message detail |
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If you are going to add Vincent, you have to add Tifa =/ --- Feel my truth. |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/24/2007 8:11:12 PM | message detail |
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yeah let's add tifa she's doing great this contest imho ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2007 8:12:38 PM | message detail |
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The Alucard/Liquid/Ness/Zidane and Bomberman/Crash/Phoenix/Magus ones
are the best. All those colors mixed together looked awesome Some of the other ones are funny though. --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Link/Vincent/Crono/Zero - Bracket: Link > Vincent - Vote: Link (263/314) |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/24/2007 8:12:56 PM | message detail |
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Match LIII: Ganondorf vs Luigi vs Master Chief vs Yuna Past Matches Round 2 Ganondorf - 31.06% Luigi - 28.11% Mudkip - 24.97% Vergil - 15.86% Master Chief - 43.78% Yuna - 23.96% Alucard - 19.22% Liquid Snake - 13.04% Analysis Last round we saw Ganondorf and Luigi split the votes between each other letting Mudkip have a lead on both for a few hours before the morning vote eventually slowed him down to a crawl. With the newly released Halo 3 Master Chief barely dropped in a poll where the competition was much stronger while it was Yuna who took a lot of the percent hit. After last round’s performance and the fact that his strongest opponent is bound by a fanbase overlap Master Chief is the favorite to take first. With one game Master Chief went from strong near-elite to noble nine breaker and with no one from that category showing up until round five Master Chief has to prove to us that the boost will last for a week longer and it wasn’t a boost because Halo 3 just came out. If he struggles here we may have overrated him again. Ganondorf is the favorite to take second. Even though I had Ganondorf winning this poll I wasn’t expecting Luigi to hold him back this much. At the time of writing this analysis I haven’t seen the match picture though keeping up with the format this round Ganondorf will probably get Legend of Zelda Ganon which won’t be the most helpful thing to him. When most people think of Ganondorf they think of the warlock version not the pig version and if they never played a LoZ game before Ocarina of Time it could be hard to distinguish who that character is in the picture. With this being the first appearance round Luigi has a great chance at upsetting Ganondorf. His picture isn’t anything great, but it is much better than Ganondorf and with him getting pig Ganon Luigi could sneak the upset. Last round he was only three percent away from Ganondorf so it wouldn’t be a stretch though he would have to hope for a big enough picture factor to change the results, plus we have no idea who Mudkip voters favor. If Luigi somehow comes in second it will be pretty funny that he’ll outlive Mario by a day. Yuna also has a chance at coming in second in this match. Strength-wise she is weaker than both of them, but with them in the same poll they could weaken each other enough to let her slip by. It isn’t like Yuna is that much weaker than Ganondorf/Luigi though hoping for not one, but two characters to cancel each other out is a stretch. Along with Luigi and the picture Master Chief will get first and because of the picture Ganondorf getting second isn’t entirely confirmed. Both Luigi and Yuna have reasons to come in second so it should be a good match to watch. charmander6000’s Bracket: Ganondorf > Master Chief charmander6000’s Prediction: Master Chief - 37.48%, Ganondorf - 23.25%, Luigi - 22.52%, Yuna - 16.75% --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Match 52: Link > Crono Points: 213/304 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2007 8:13:20 PM | message detail |
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Division 5: Round 3 - Match 53 – Ganondorf vs. Luigi vs. Master Chief vs. Yuna Moltar’s Analysis Ganondorf Round 1 – 49.10% vs. Vergil, Thrall and Ratchet Round 2 – 31.06% vs. Luigi, Mudkip and Vergil Another domniating performance from everyone’s favorite character. Luigi Round 1 – 45.96% vs. Mudkip, Pit and Tingle Round 2 – 28.11% vs. Ganondorf, Mudkip and Vergil Almost let Mudkip beat him laff. Master Chief Round 1 – 45.69% vs. Yuna, Tommy and PaRappa Round 2 – 43.78% vs. Yuna, Alucard and Liquid Snake Master Clinkeroth becoming a reality? Yuna Round 1 – 30.18% vs. MC, Tommy and PaRappa Round 2 – 23.96% vs. MC, Alucard and Liquid Snake Chief : Yuna :: Snake : Samus (you know its true) After coming off a hot, hot, hot match, the heat remains high for this one. This is one of those rare “any combination of the four could make it” situations. Ganon and Luigi are near-elites going after the same audience, Chief is a midcarder whose strength is tripled in this format, and Yuna’s in ur match, captilizin’ on ur weaknez. Now, this may be a surprise to you, but I am a fan of Ganondorf. I had him taking first in this match even though I kind of figured Chief would be stronger in this format. However, after last round, I’m changing my tune a little. Luigi hurt Ganondorf a lot more that I initially thought he would. Yeah, Mudkip may have messed some things up too, but the point is that the Ganon/Luigi Nintendo split is harsher than I expected. Then there’s Chief, who’s got his can of GAME FUEL ready to kick some ass. The guy looked beastly in Round 1 and 2, but here’s he got two characters who are indirectly stronger than him. With names like Ganondorf and Luigi in the poll, does Chief suffer? A little, but not enough to lose this. The split between Ganon and Luigi should hurt to the point where Yuna may be looking good to take 2nd. I’m not counting her out, but she definitely has the least likely chance in my mind. So what am I predicting now? Chief > Ganon. Yeah, I can’t COMPLETELY go against Ganondorf here because he’s got a good chance. He won the split with Luigi last round, and I think he can do it again. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Ganon > MC Moltar’s Prediction is: MC: 35% - Ganon: 24% - Luigi: 21% - Yuna: 20% Ultimaterializer’s Analysis Two GREAT match in a row. Sorry in advance for this writeup being short; really happy about Vincent and working on an English paper, sooo.... Master Chief has been a beast all contest, and Ganondorf and Luigi should screw each other over enough to allow Chief to get into first place. As for second, I actually Yuna making the final eight. So much for that plan! The entire female half of the 2006 bracket can safely be thrown out. Yuna's underperformed all contest, and she might actually come in last place. We've already seen Ganon > Luigi once. Unless like 90% of Mudkip's votes were displaced Luigi votes, Ganon should be able to do it again. No matter what, we could be prime for another Alucard/Liquid/Ness situation. Here's hoping for a great match! Ulti's Prediction: Chief [28.00%] Ganondorf [27.00%] Luigi [26.00%] Yuna [19.00%] Heroic Mario’s Analysis Time for an upset! There’s probably not too many people even considering Yuna for an upset here, but I think she’s got a great shot at doing it. Much like what happened with Pikachu/Vivi/Tidus, Yuna’s going to be relying on Ganon and Luigi splitting the fanbase again. Given that the competition here is much stronger than Mudkip and Vergil, I think it’s possible that Yuna gets just enough percentage to slip by in a close one. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2007 8:13:41 PM | message detail |
| First place is pretty much a foregone conclusion
at this point – Master Chief will easily take it. He’s looking like an
absolute beast this year, and with the two Nintendo guys not being at
their optimal strength, there’s no way they can compete with him. They
might not even be able to compete with him when
they aren’t hurt by each other – he’s looking that strong. I did
undershoot him last time, and I have a feeling I may be doing it again,
but I think the Chief is good for at least 30% here, probably a fair bit more depending. That leaves Yuna, the sole Square character in this pack, to fight with the two Nintendo guys. Before the contest, I bought into the idea that Nintendo is such a force on this site, that Ganon and Luigi could split the vote and still manage to come out on top. Clearly, that’s changed! “LFF” has been big during this contest, usually allowing for an undoubtedly weaker character to advance. I think Yuna can really take advantage of that here. She’s hardly weak herself – although she’s not nearly as high as last year’s female bracket would indicate – and being the most independent next to the Chief has to have some perks. As for what happens with Luigi and Ganon, there’s really no telling. Normally, I would have said that Ganon beats Luigi again, but the votes Mudkip got last round could end up going anywhere. Between that and Ganon’s horrendous picture, I’m giving Luigi the advantage over Ganon by a smidge, although something tells me he might end up dominating the SFF for some reason. Master Chief – 30% Yuna – 24% Luigi -- 23% Ganondorf – 23% Bracket: Ganon > Luigi Vote: Yuna Yoblazer’s Analysis Well, here it is - the match my bracket depends on. I could be wrong, but I think this is one of only two big upsets that sets my bracket apart from most others. I'm obviously excited that it's finally here, and boy, did it take its sweetass time. This was arguably the most debated match during the prediction period, so I can safely say that others are also giddy with anticipation. Let's analyze this puppy and see if this old Arab still has a shot. This match is notable for combining Nintendo, Square, and a rabid "outsider" fanbase in one pretty package. The competitors are Master Chief, Ganondorf, Luigi, and Yuna. In most cases, I'd like the Nintendo rep's chances, but things are complicated here because there are, in fact, two Nintendo reps. Ganon and Luigi, while not the most intertwined couple in the Nintendo kingdom, certainly have some significant overlap, and this will allow Master Chief to run away with yet another impressive win. Chief has practically everything going for him today: the picture, the recent gaming world news and hype, and the big fanbase split are all spelling good things for the Halo star, so don't be surprised if he makes all three of these guys look like jobbers. While Chief wasn't the favorite among Board 8 bracket makers, he's proven that he should have been with two incredible performances. Anyone who had Ganondorf, Luigi, or Yuna winning this match has basically given up all hopes of receiving full points and will now be relegated to hoping their representative makes it through. And that, my friends, is where all the super-happy-fun-time action is. Who will accompany Chief? Your guess is as good as mine. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2007 8:14:24 PM | message detail |
| The mini-match between Ganon, Luigi, and Yuna is
one full of advantages and disadvantages, and the key to predicting it
correctly is figuring out which ones will actually matter most. Yuna
has a big disadvantage by being clearly weaker than the two Nintendo
characters, but she is advantaged because she won't have to endure a
fanbase split. Ganondorf is advantaged by being the strongest of the
three, but disadvantaged because his performance against Luigi in the
last round wasn't very impressive and because his picture completely
sucks ass (Yuna also has a pretty bad picture, by the way). Luigi's
disadvantage is that he's coming into the match with a loss to
Ganondorf (albeit a respectable one), but he is advantaged by having a
much more appealing old school sprite picture. As many of you know, I have Luigi in my bracket, and I feel that his advantages and potential advantages can definitely pull him through. He's got a great iconic sprite going for him, and his loss to Ganondorf last round wasn't really that bad. The picture alone may be enough to make that up, as could the possibility of Mudkip hurting Luigi slightly more (something I've long since speculated with nothing to back it up but my gut, so please make fun! I have no proofs, you see!) in his last match. Apart from his 2005 win against Auron, Ganondorf has a history of dropping the big one, and I could see him folding today, especially with that picture, but I still reluctantly give him the status of "favorite." Yuna, conversely, can also take advantage of the fanbase split and ride it into the next round, but I think her overall lack of strength and poor picture will hold her back. What it basically boils down to is that I can see these three finishing in any order, and I'll just be hoping like crazy for WEE GEE TIME. OH YA. OH YA. to pull it off. Good analysis, huh. Master Chief - 36% Luigi - 23% Ganondorf - 21% Yuna - 20% Lopen’s Analysis Match of the round right here. I'm actively watching first and second place. Nono, child, not because Master Chief is in any danger of losing, but because it's time his hardcore fanbase theory really gets put to the test. We saw it last round... surely PafreakinRappa alone being replaced would guarantee MC losing more than a paltry 2%. But nay, it did not. Why? Why didn't it? Some say that it's because of Halo 3. Of course, those same people were saying Halo 3 wouldn't give a significant boost, but let's ignore that for a moment. Yes, I think it was partially Halo 3... but mainly? Mainly Master Chief's hyper-resiliant fanbase... we do not fold easily! And now it's time for a healthy dose of believe. MASTER CHIEF IS INVINCIBLE! Okay... Master Chief aside... there are other people in this match. I didn't see because I voted so fast... but as for second place... quite debatable. As for me, I'm thinking the odds go Luigi > Yuna > Pigman. WHAAAATTT!?, you say? Yeah, you read it right. Let me tell ya why. Round 2... Pigman barely edged out Luigi. But results would dictate that Pigman is clearly stronger than Luigi, right? Indeed, they would. Here's where my theory on Pigman comes in... I just don't think he's the type to do well in this format... especially with Luigi here. I figure, among the more loyal sects of the Nintendo fanbase, Luigi is more likely to have the support. Pigman has a lot more outliers, but with MC and Yuna here they've mostly been weeded out. We saw Luigi almost uproot Pigman last round where the only non-Nintendo alternative was Vergil, who sadly was too weak to make much of a difference. Now, with Master Chief and Yuna here to pick off the outliers, Luigi's rSFF is going to hurt that much more. Oh, and also, as gravy for Luigi's chances... Pigman is actually Pigman this round. GG THX NUB Bacondorf. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2007 8:14:51 PM | message detail |
| Now, my concern lies in this... even if Luigi can
rSFF Pigman, where does that leave Yuna? While Luigi's the favorite
1v1, Yuna's no pushover. Her being able to capitalize on a weakened
Luigi seems a very real possibility to me. Especially considering that
because she was so comfortably ahead of Alucard her numbers from last
year might not be totally absurd. But I dunno... I just don't think
Weej gets hurt enough for her to sneak in, especially after seeing how
Weej and MC dominate the pic. Keep in mind though, Nintendo is a pretty
large
fanbase. "Fanbase split" doesn't mean as much as when comparing say...
Kingdom Hearts. While Luigi is hurt a bit, it's not as if he's running
out of vote reserves. Lopen's Prediction: Master Chief - 41.37% Luigi - 22.51% Yuna - 21.13% PIGMAN COMETH - 14.99% Now let's chug some GAME FUEL in preparation for the match. Karma Hunter’s Analysis The first of the Noble Nine falls (but not for real lolz ARGH), and with this the next batch of prospective contenders comes up to bat. Ganondorf A strange underwhelming match characterizes Ganondorf's performance last round as he pulls out a closer than expected win against Luigi. With him getting stuck with one of the worst pictures he's ever had, can he still advance here with Yuna lurking to take advantage of SFF and the threat of Luigi? Luigi A potential loss to Mudkip turns into quite an impressive performance from Luigi, about the best he could have hoped for without winning. Now he looks to advance here, blah blah same thing I just said for ol' Ganny w/out the crap pic Master Chief What was once a hotly debated match where MC could have been seen as the underdog has become a near-lock for the SPARTAN hero of Halo. Master Chief has been DOMINANT on the level of the Noble Nine, and he'll be looking to prove himself once again - this time, being truly tested against heavy-hitting Nintendo forces. He should almost certainly advance, but will it be dominating enough to give faith against a clearly boosted Sonic powerhouse? Yuna Doing as expected, maybe a bit better, maybe a bit worse (well, if you throw out any expectations to hang with MC). Yuna is pretty much just hoping to take advantage of some serious fanbase splitting and slip in once again with MC. Can she continue to cling to the big man, or has her luck run out? Hey, here's the analysis - and I think it has! Yuna is strong, but I don't think the split between Ganondorf and Luigi will be enough to let her through into second. She's certainly not out of it, but I'm just not feeling the pick here. Let's move on to my more debated result, which is between Ganondorf and Luigi. Ganondorf definitely disappointed last round against Luigi. That being said, he still won. More than that, we've seen close margins become much more pronounced in later rounds for whatever reason, though that could be a minus as much as a plus for Ganny. The problem for him seems to come in the form of the picture, because Luigi has his great recognizable sprite while Ganondorf has... that thing. It's not exactly **** Boss, but it's not exactly good. Mudkip being gone puts some unpredictability there as well. Discounting all the stuffed votes, where do the people that voted for him last time throw their support? Luigi is definitely the more 'kiddy' character, and that seems to me where those votes will tend. That and the MC/Yuna dynamic... Luigi just comes off a lot better to me, is what I'm trying to say. And I never have faith in Luigi... but I'm picking him here in a debated match, for probably the first time ever (I *really* don't count KOS-MOS... but I never have faith in her either :/). Even though Ganondorf's the only one I can see upending MC down the line out of this grouping, I'm just feeling the Luigi vibe here. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2007 8:16:12 PM | message detail |
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...it's worked as well as any other method this contest! Karma Hunter's Vote: Master Chief. I've been playing Halo 3 lately, lol Halo 3 boost lolololol GAME FUEL Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Master Chief with 36.5%, Luigi with 25%, Ganondorf with 24%, Yuna with 16.5% ...for some reason this percentage was really hard for me, even considering that it's me. Maybe I should compare with other people's predictions before I do writeups... Upset Probability: 70% We've got Ganondorf primed and ready, and if he comes out storming (and we've seen that happen for seemingly no reason, ph33r teh Mudkipz - Bidoof parallel) we could see Luigi easily lose. Maybe even MC given a scare... okay, so the bulk of that remaining probability is Yuna surviving again. She's got a great chance, but I don't like to linger on it geez alright lol look at that picture wtf Auron Transience’s Analysis here we are -- the most debated match of the entire bracket pre-contest. there were tons of arguments to be made pre-contest, but a lot of them have gone away after seeing these characters in a couple of rounds. but hey, second place is still up for grabs! Ganondorf xstat-wise, the strongest character among the four and the most impressive in previous contests. once thought to be the guy to break the Noble Nine (augh let's not go there), Ganon is still an elite character that belongs in the conversation with the Vincents and Squalls of the world. unfortunately, he has two things working against him here: heavy overlap with Luigi and that awful picture. Luigi the least likely to place? maybe. round 2 proved that Nintendo fans prefer Ganondorf to him, but he has two things working for him: his picture and Ganondorf's. Luigi's picture, while still not good (who the hell decided this round was a good idea?), is still a fairly classic, iconic picture of the Green Mario. that's gotta count for something... right? Master Chief star of the contest, L-Block notwithstanding. a lock to place first. he's got hype, the biggest release of the year, that weird fanbase of his, and the best picture of the four on his side. what more needs to be said? this is more of a measuring stick for Sonic than anything at this point. the main thing we get to test in this round is how MC holds up against legends -- Luigi, specifically. Yuna the weakest character of the four. the most independent? maybe. the overlap + the bad pictures have her getting a bit of hype to place here, and it's fairly warranted. she has as good a chance as anyone. so, who gets second here? there are arguments to be made for all three. let's start with the pictures. I don't think the picture hurts Ganon much. it's not like people don't know who Ganondorf is; freaking everyone has played Zelda and everyone knows he's been around since the beginning of time. honestly, I think Luigi's picture helps him more than Ganon's hurts him. besides, Yuna's picture is bad, too. everyone is bad here! I think all the bad pictures kind of cancel themselves out here. on the other hand, the overlap between Ganondorf and Luigi is a huge factor. it split pretty hard in round 2, meaning that Yuna has a great chance here. I want to take Yuna pretty badly here just based on the circumstances, but I'm skeptical of her getting a lot of votes. she may be independent, but that doesn't mean that Square fans automatically like her more than the Nintendo guys. she's just not the favourite character that people want to make her out to be. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2007 8:16:32 PM | message detail |
| that leaves Ganondorf and Luigi.. and for whatever
reason, I'm taking Luigi. I think Mudkip hurts Luigi more than
Ganondorf. why? I have no idea, it just feels right to me. add in the
two pictures and I think he has that slight edge. this is such a huge
tossup between the three guys here, but I'll throw my pick to Luigi. I
think his fans care more about him than Ganondorf's do about him. I
think Ganondorf's fans abandon him for Master Chief more than Luigi's
will. I have no good feeling about this match and I'm not even
anticipating it all that much, but WOO LUIGI Yuna's pic is bad Ganondorf looks like a pig Luigi's is best transience's prediction: Master Chief with 40.45%, Luigi with 21.48%, Yuna with 19.45%, Ganondorf with 18.62% Guest’s Analysis - Luis_Sera89 This is something I wish I could be writing for a little more hindsight, but Liverpool are playing tonight! Which coupled with a night out and a 7 o clock start tomorrow, isn’t Aunt Bessie’s great recipe for an awesome analysis. But what’s this? This next match is Ganon/Luigi/Chief/Yuna? The one match singled out as the most unpredictable later round match of the entire contest? Well then hindsight be damned! I’ll get on the best I can! To recap our heroes journeys to this point, Ganon looked half decent blowing away pithy fodder, likewise Luigi apart from NO THERE IS A MUDKIP IN THE WAY, and travel buddies Chief and Yuna have never looked in much trouble, but it’s hard not to notice just how far away MC’s been blowing Yunes out of the water. And to throw a further metaphorical spanner in the works SFFleechingfactor is turning out to be more damaging than most of us could have anticipated pre-contest, so one of Ganon and Luigi are by no means out of the woods, and the summoner could quite easily slip through the backdoor once again with the Nintendo duo splitting votes. Which, by the way, Mudkipz be damned, they did so impeccably last round. A 3% difference added to the unpredictability of where Mudkip’s votes will go means quite literally anything could happen. And of course by anything I mean Chief > Luigi/Ganon/Yuna (delete as applicable). GAME FUEL has looked divine so far this contest, no-one in his two matches has come close to touching him and he’s been putting up figure’s in the mid-40s against characters who are no mugs at all (except Parappa lolz). His Hardcore X-Box Voting Block ™, isn’t showing any signs of deserting him, and as has been said countless times, that + difficulty in anti-voting + apparent drop in anti-voting anyway + Halo 3 = good timez for MC. Now though he’s entering an entirely different league to the largely lower-midcarders at best range he’s faced so far, and up to the realm of the higher midcarder/near elite/elite >_> So, uh, yeah a very chump-free zone. Don’t be expecting him to retain figures in the 40s unless you’re still harbouring hope of him reaching the final. But enough of the all but locked up 1st place. Who in this jumble of unpredictability will emerge unscathed? |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2007 8:17:12 PM | message detail |
| Surprising as I would have found this pre-contest,
things are conspiring more than ever against Ganon, and I’m finding it
hard to take him. He wasn’t nearly dominant enough last match for me to
feel ‘safe’ about this match, and I’m finding it much easier seeing the
majority of Mudkip’s votes going to Luigi, and with 25% to go around,
for just over 3% to vote again, preferring Weegee to Pigman isn’t out
of the realms of possibility by any means. And speaking of Pigman,
whilst Luigi certainly isn’t going to be looking his best, surprises
aside, Ganon’s getting his LoZ sprite, which is entering an all new
world of questionable recognisability. It’s not the prettiest picture
to begin with, but combine that with the fact that you never see Ganon
until the final battle, and you’re relying a lot on name-recognition.
Of course this could all be irrelevant come match time, but when
there’s this much uncertainty surrounding a match, the smallest detail
could prove costly. Luigi’s finally getting a match without Mudkip now, so maybe he could be getting a Link-esque coming out party. The leeching in the last match brought Luigi up closer to Ganon than he likely would be in a 1 on 1, and I think this could make the difference. And finally, Yuna? Well like Chief her fanbase kind if sticks out here, and with no potential Playstation screwy business going on, I can see her jumping from her Round 2 votals to something closer to her original Round 1 amount. Her, and the two Nintendo boys are going to end up quite close to each other, but I see it as a fight between her and Ganon for 3rd place, as I’m siding with the Green Missile on this one. GO WEEGEE TIME! Ganondorf: 21.41% Luigi: 23.1% Master Chief: 33.44% Yuna: 21.74% Crew Consensus: Chief > Luigi is the favorite, but Chief > Ganon and Chief > Yuna are represented! |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/24/2007 8:18:01 PM | message detail |
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So I'm off to play PW3 while waiting for Luigi to potentially reach the Fourth Round for the first year ever Today rules --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/24/2007 8:19:25 PM | message detail |
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I gotta say I'm feeling MC > Luigi, MC > Yuna, MC > Ganon right now in terms of likeliness. come on yuna --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/24/2007 8:21:37 PM | message detail |
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From PortugalTheMann Posted 10/24/2007 11:19:25 PM #028 I gotta say I'm feeling MC > Luigi, MC > Yuna, MC > Ganon right now in terms of likeliness. come on yuna this. ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2007 8:26:17 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=1733&type=1 --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/24/2007 8:26:50 PM | message detail |
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tranny wins --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2007 8:29:02 PM | message detail |
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i'm seeing some tanner spikes there hardcore driv3r fans cheating confirmed --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Ganon/Luigi/MC/Yuna - Bracket: Ganon > MC - Vote: Ganon (279/330) |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/24/2007 8:29:34 PM | message detail |
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darn you romero --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| creativename | Posted 10/24/2007 8:33:31 PM | message detail |
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To clarify on the 2-way poll 2 colors vs. 4 colors, the Link to the Past vs. Chrono Trigger poll that transcience posted. http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=1658&type=2 vs. http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=1658&type=2&colors=all Which do people prefer? I think in this one match the latter is better, though this match is a very extreme case. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2007 8:35:18 PM | message detail |
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the latter is a ton better. http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2914&type=2&colors=all even with that, it's a lot better. --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| Keno316 | Posted 10/24/2007 8:35:54 PM | message detail |
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Multi colors works better there. --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| greatone10 | Posted 10/24/2007 8:37:07 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2882&type=1 I like that one spike at the end for Snake. --- Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest. This line waiting for Guru results, because not enough people have played the Mario RPGs. |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 10/24/2007 8:48:55 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, I'm partial to the latter style as well. --- Mustache...and green... www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/24/2007 8:49:31 PM | message detail |
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Latter style is much better. Also, I don't think I've commented on how much the graphs kick ass. Cause they do. Nice job, creativename. --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg |
| creativename | Posted 10/24/2007 8:50:51 PM | message detail |
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even with that, it's a lot better. For 4 characters, 4 colors is the default - same colors for cumulative and per update. I want to know, is extra colors for the cumulative better when there are two characters only? --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/24/2007 8:52:59 PM | message detail |
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I like the overlap style a lot. HaRRicH Posted 10/24/2007 10:13:15 PM message detail #478 That's like giving Cloud four wins last year...I can't agree with that. For the BR, I gave wins to all the non-last place characters for each match, who obviously got losses. Not that it matters too much. ~*ST*~ --- Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=37308859 |
| creativename | Posted 10/24/2007 8:55:15 PM | message detail |
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OK, 4 colors for 2-way polls with simultaneous it is. So - which graphs do people want? Cumulative and Per Update, or Both? Also, I don't think I've commented on how much the graphs kick ass. Cause they do. Nice job, creativename. Thanks :) http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2882&type=1 Whoa. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Haste_2 | Posted 10/24/2007 8:58:30 PM | message detail |
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*holds up Luigi flag* Luigi, number...!... 2, I guess. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 10/24/2007 8:59:32 PM | message detail |
| Mustache...and green... |
| creativename | Posted 10/24/2007 8:59:46 PM | message detail |
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For now I've decided to give people a 3-way choice. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/24/2007 8:59:54 PM | message detail |
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I'm the Green Thunder...Mr. L! --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2007 9:00:13 PM | message detail |
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Ganondorf 45.45% 5 Luigi 18.18% 2 Master Chief 27.27% 3 Yuna 9.09% 1 TOTAL VOTES 11 YES --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Ganon/Luigi/MC/Yuna - Bracket: Ganon > MC - Vote: Ganon (279/330) |
| Gaddswell | Posted 10/24/2007 9:00:25 PM | message detail |
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Ganondorf 27.12% 16 Luigi 38.98% 23 Master Chief 18.64% 11 Yuna 15.25% 9 TOTAL VOTES 59 LUIGI --- Finally a damn bracket! http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y69/unown_pnoi/brawlhypeclubheader.jpg |
| Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/24/2007 9:00:25 PM | message detail |
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Ganondorf 57.14% 4 Luigi 14.29% 1 Master Chief 14.29% 1 Yuna 14.29% 1 TOTAL VOTES 7 --- Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination. The cream of Chocobo fanboyism. |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/24/2007 9:00:25 PM | message detail |
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Ganondorf 34.29% 12 Luigi 28.57% 10 Master Chief 20% 7 Yuna 17.14% 6 TOTAL VOTES 35 GO YUNA! --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
