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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 531

Forceful Dragon | Posted 10/24/2007 5:04:42 PM | message detail
Wow I just saw tomorrows match pic.

Ganon looks terrible

Works for me though, I have MC taking 1st.

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Eff Dee
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/24/2007 5:04:52 PM | message detail
I hate bringing back up the whole Noble Nine thing again, but I was called out before for saying that the concept originated with them all having to have been in every contest since 2K2. If that wasn't true, Bowser's never lost to anyone outside of them either, but he's never been considered a part of the group.

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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
Keno316 | Posted 10/24/2007 5:06:15 PM | message detail
That's cause the NN are the Elite 8 from the 2003 Plus Crono who was pretty much = to Mario back then. Bowser wasn't really anything impressive in these things til 2005...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/24/2007 5:07:14 PM | message detail
Vincent hasn't been anything special since 2K5 either.

ok im really done
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hungry like the wolf
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/24/2007 5:07:40 PM | message detail
From PortugalTheMann Posted 10/24/2007 8:04:52 PM #402

ignored
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/24/2007 5:07:44 PM | message detail
Square needs to put Crono in the FFVII remake to balance out his voting pattern. And that's a reason why I don't think there's much Crono/Vincent LFF here- totally opposite voting patterns. Some Link/Crono LFF is possible though.

As for Cloud, I think he can get 45% there- he's the only Square character in that poll- but I'd still call Link the favorite even with 45%. Link is getting over that right now, and if there is significant Megaman/Samus SFF, then Crono/Vincent/Zero are comparable to Megaman/Samus/Ryu.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 211/304 -- T-792 (53 way)
Bracket: Link > Crono -- Vote: Crono!
red sox 777 | Posted 10/24/2007 5:09:32 PM | message detail
Oh, and if Crono wants to have any chance whatsoever at coming back, he needs to start now- this is when Axel ran out of steam against Frog.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 211/304 -- T-792 (53 way)
Bracket: Link > Crono -- Vote: Crono!
Forceful Dragon | Posted 10/24/2007 5:09:52 PM | message detail
Bowser doesn't count because he's never *beaten* a NN character.

Every other character has beaten at least one other character from the NN, but has never lost to anyone but the NN.


I think the "been in every contest" requirement is ridiculously stupid though. Eventually there will be a video game character that sweeps the nation again. More powerful than both Link and Cloud. Are we supposed to not include this new character simply because he didn't exist back in 2002?
I'm not saying this will happen soon, but its got to happen eventually, and we cant consider characters weaker just because they weren't around as long ago as other characters.

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Eff Dee
Dilated Chemist | Posted 10/24/2007 5:11:12 PM | message detail
The N9 is dead and Vincent Valentine killed it. The irony.

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Our life is short and our days run; as fast away as does the sun. And as a vapour or a drop of rain; once lost can ne'er be found again.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/24/2007 5:11:46 PM | message detail
If we assume that Ryu's legendary consistency will hold, Cloud will pretty much need to outdo Samus and Mega Man combined if he wants to end up in the mid 40's. With the potential overlap between those two and Cloud's earlier dominance, I wouldn't call that impossible.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/24/2007 5:11:49 PM | message detail
Up until last year, Snake and Sonic had never beaten another Noble Niner. And Megaman and Samus had never beaten, or beaten someone who had beaten, someone in the group Link/Cloud/Sephiroth/Mario/Crono.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 211/304 -- T-792 (53 way)
Bracket: Link > Crono -- Vote: Crono!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/24/2007 5:12:10 PM | message detail
Every other character has beaten at least one other character from the NN, but has never lost to anyone but the NN.

Oh right, that makes sense. I remember back in 2K5 when everyone was like "LOL Solid Snake Noble Nine? More like Noble Fail! lololol"

wate

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hungry like the wolf
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/24/2007 5:14:22 PM | message detail
If we assume that Ryu's legendary consistency will hold, Cloud will pretty much need to outdo Samus and Mega Man combined if he wants to end up in the mid 40's. With the potential overlap between those two and Cloud's earlier dominance, I wouldn't call that impossible.

Samus/MM LFF = Cloud > Ryu imho.

I actually had that in my bracket for a little while, before getting scared and just having Ryu lose after beating out Auron.

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hungry like the wolf
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/24/2007 5:16:06 PM | message detail
I'm going to laugh so hard if this ends up being MC > Ganon anyway.

Um, seriously, it's not that unlikely.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/24/2007 5:17:19 PM | message detail
yeah MC > Ganon still has a really good chance at happening... I actually feel terrible about my MC > Yuna pick.

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hungry like the wolf
creativename | Posted 10/24/2007 5:17:21 PM | message detail
Adding graphing for poll updates.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/24/2007 5:19:52 PM | message detail
OLD
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hungry like the wolf
Haste_2 | Posted 10/24/2007 5:20:35 PM | message detail
Good to see that Link should fail to hit 46%. I'm still worried Crono might catch up at the end and pull a Frog, even though odds should be abysmal...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
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creativename | Posted 10/24/2007 5:20:42 PM | message detail
*Added

Ngamer
creative, every stats topic ever can still be found at

thengamer.com/stats

Yes, even back to #1!


Wow, awesome stuff!

I don't know if I've ever read the first stats topic before, might do that at some point.


MasterOfHunters
Hah! The old stats topic was preserved! I remember the consensus being Snake > Link in the finals in just about every board 8 poll before the contest started..

I didn't make a bracket back then, because I didn't know about the contest until midway through, but I think I would've had either Sephiroth or Link in the finals, don't know who I would've picked in the other half...but on looking at the bracket, I almost certainly would've had Snake going out in the 1st round to Squall, unless I noticed and paid attention to the seeding.

fluffyflyingpig
Hmm, gut tells me yoda and vader would do better in this contest setting than Solo. Maybe R2-D2 as well.

Vader and Yoda would, but probably not R2. Though R2 might be stronger than I initially thought...he's not badass, but he's still R2. He's R2-badass in his own way :) He wouldn't be anything beyond midcarder though I think. But hey, even HK-47 is at the top of the fodder line, R2 would trash him I would think.

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creativename | Posted 10/24/2007 5:24:17 PM | message detail
Ulti
creativename kicks so much ass. He just added graphs to the pull update sections.

:)


n00b Avenger
It's a nice feature but it'd be much more interesting if it measured the amount of votes they got in each specific time period.

Don't quite follow. You mean percent per update?


TRE
Am I the only person who sees the curves at the bottom of the graph as Weedle?

What is that?

I'm using the PEAR Image_Graph package, that's how the legend looks.


Lady Ashe
Yeah, I have to agree with this. We can see the overall percentages normally, but we can't see percentage per update. While this is certainly neat, it would be nice if we could have a graph for that as well. =/

Greedy mofos :) I guess I'll work on that at some point.


Dilated Chemist
The N9 is dead and Vincent Valentine killed it. The irony.

Why is this ironic?
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creativename | Posted 10/24/2007 5:26:25 PM | message detail
Re: Match pic (man I almost wrote 'match pig'!): That LoZ background for Ganon is awesome. Just thinking about the music on that title screen makes me so nostalgic. I actually think Piganon will OK for himself here.

He's still the favorite for 2nd anyway right? Though I'd love for Luigi to get it. (though because of the title screen this picture makes me like Ganon more than I ever have)

Master Chief looks terrific, I'm almost tempted to vote for him - but Luigi's in there.
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/24/2007 5:26:51 PM | message detail
Sorry! =/
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/24/2007 5:30:50 PM | message detail
Going by direct comparisons, Ganon gets 71.7% on Vergil in R1, and 66.3% on Vergil in Round 2, for a picture of how much LFF hurt Ganon between rounds. Going by that, he should still be the favorite over Yuna, I'd think...depending on what happens with the picture, and Yuna's terrible picture makes that not such a big deal. And if Mudkip contributed to the LFF, Ganon looks even better.

Does anyone (Haste? Creative?) have a better way of showing how much LFF hurt Ganon there?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/24/2007 5:37:17 PM | message detail
Vincent just keeps on going up...

~*ST*~
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/24/2007 5:38:12 PM | message detail
Board 8 consensus in 2002, at least before that contest started, was Sephiroth > Snake in the final. Funny how things have come full circle with regards to Snake.

~*ST*~
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/24/2007 5:40:02 PM | message detail
From Dilated Chemist Posted 10/24/2007 8:11:12 PM #409
The N9 is dead and Vincent Valentine killed it. The irony.

Ignoring the fact that nobody gives a damn... Where is the irony? <_<
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2007 5:40:03 PM | message detail
As bad as Crono blew this match, he held up a bit better during the day than I thought he would.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/24/2007 5:43:46 PM | message detail
The Sonic comparison really was ideal. Vincent gained percentage on him for the last 4 hours of the poll, Crono for the final 30 minutes. So I doubt Crono is going to be able to make up much, if anything, here.
LordOfDabu | Posted 10/24/2007 5:46:33 PM | message detail
About 2002: I remember once I saw the contest board had him as an overwhelming favorite I actually went and changed my winner to Sephiroth (I forgot who I originally had taking it... I know it wasn't Link. Might have been Mega Man). The board had a hold on people even then! It didn't cause me to change my winner for the top half though (I had Sephiroth > Crono... as bad as that may sound I actually had the final four correct). Interestingly enough, the board consensus then didn't match up with the brackets. The bracket favorite was Mario (1:5 odds or something like that) followed by Link.
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Hello world
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/24/2007 5:46:41 PM | message detail
Link's after school was very disappointing. He didn't even gain a full percentage point. You were all calling for him to get 47% but he has failed you all. In fact, Donkey Kong could probably do better.


Also, Crono is no longer barely losing. He's losing pretty badly now. We should have seen this coming. Vincent has had two great performances while Crono failed to break 50% against Sam Fisher, somebody who struggled with Sam Fisher and some other loser that I don't even remember. Then, in Round 2, he barely beats a high-end fodder in Zero. Considering Crono is only going to drop further, expect him to have the fight of his life against characters like Squall, Auron, Tifa and Barret
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Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory
Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest
Seginustemple | Posted 10/24/2007 5:47:21 PM | message detail
Hochimihn155: XD Link's dropping like a rock now! Say goodbye to your brackets!
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If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula
trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2007 5:48:27 PM | message detail
I didn't make a bracket, but I thought Cloud > Link would be the final.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/24/2007 5:48:59 PM | message detail
Actually, I was calling for him to get 45%

Man, what an ignorant tool I am.
~~~
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/24/2007 5:49:28 PM | message detail
i didn't make a bracket but if i did i would have got every match right
~~~
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Seginustemple | Posted 10/24/2007 5:49:41 PM | message detail
Oh man Hochi in RIGHT before I mock him. I know you too well, you shrewd devil, you.
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If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/24/2007 5:49:50 PM | message detail
lol hochiminh. Cloud isn't beating Link in the final, you can stop dreaming now.

We should have seen this coming.

Who is this "we"? I've had Link > Vincent from day one. I'm just a more uber-bracketeer than you are.

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/24/2007 5:50:53 PM | message detail
Another small gain by Vincent. Small is better than nothing, and it's five less minutes that Crono has to mount any counter-charge. Crono would need a Samus > Sonic 2002 miracle to pull this thing off.

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LordOfDabu | Posted 10/24/2007 5:52:03 PM | message detail
Also about the Noble Nine: I'm pretty sure it didn't have anything to do with them not losing to anyone outside of their group or anything like that. It was just the last 8 remaining in 2003, but since so many people felt Crono > Mario due to the controversy he was put in as well. Then in 2004 the last 8 remaining were also the exact same characters, except with Mario and Crono switched, just confirming what was determined the year before. All the other facts about them were post hoc.
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Hello world
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2007 5:52:23 PM | message detail
Wait, people are still thinking Crono might come back?

1400 votes in 3 hours? <_<
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Keno316 | Posted 10/24/2007 5:52:27 PM | message detail
Ulti...you're rather paranoid over what's most likely a done deal.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/24/2007 5:52:27 PM | message detail
I'm finding endless enjoyment out of you being the only one worried about this match.

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Explicit Content.
hungry like the wolf
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/24/2007 5:52:28 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/24/2007 5:53:20 PM | message detail
Ulti had Axel > Frog. I don't exactly blame him for being paranoid, but yes, this is done. Crono has lost.
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Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory
Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/24/2007 5:54:25 PM | message detail
Don't blame the pic when Ganon loses tomorrow FYI.

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Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory
Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest
trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2007 5:54:29 PM | message detail
this was over by 7am.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/24/2007 5:54:40 PM | message detail
...did hochi just pull a voltch
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/24/2007 5:54:55 PM | message detail
so was my anal virginity
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hungry like the wolf
Keno316 | Posted 10/24/2007 5:56:12 PM | message detail
Well, now that BT has most likely humbled uped, guess someone had to fill the shoes of the crazy upset logic train...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/24/2007 5:56:46 PM | message detail
MC > Link. believe.
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hungry like the wolf
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2007 5:57:14 PM | message detail
Isn't that Lopen's thing?
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