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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 531

Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/24/2007 11:30:12 AM | message detail
Oh, and the reason that there's a question is the influence of FFIVA/FFVIA.

ie, none.
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RockMFR 5 | Posted 10/24/2007 11:30:47 AM | message detail
Goodbye Crono. Hello ASV!
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/24/2007 11:32:11 AM | message detail
You're not the only one, KH. I was tempted to make a topic asking for the link to this one but decided it might be a bit too childish. <_<
Shinra Reborn | Posted 10/24/2007 11:37:52 AM | message detail
....wtf.
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transience | Posted 10/24/2007 11:38:54 AM | message detail
Was that a knock at me? Hey, I didn't say he definitely DID have a core fanbase! I just said we didn't know yet! Besides, I'm all the core fanbase Zero needs! (Actually, no I'm not and I hate everyone for not liking Zero more).

nah, I don't take shots at people for being fans! I was just saying that I thought Zero should be able to get something -- at least 15%. Zero = Bidoof confirmed!
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"i go by statisticss put them all in an arena sepphroth="why arent your hair and mustache the same color?!" BAM dead mario" -Rathalownage
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/24/2007 11:39:17 AM | message detail
And yeah I don't like the Link percentage bleed either.

I do. I find it quite funny.

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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/24/2007 11:42:36 AM | message detail
We're 2000+ votes behind Cloud's match. What gives?
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/24/2007 11:43:49 AM | message detail
We're 2000+ votes behind Cloud's match. What gives?


lol Link.


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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/24/2007 11:44:54 AM | message detail
lmfao
Warsola | Posted 10/24/2007 11:45:34 AM | message detail
Make up your damn mind Crono >_>
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And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes!
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/24/2007 11:46:00 AM | message detail
After school in 15 minutes. Say goodbye to Crono, the noble nine, Link and your brackets.

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Shinra Reborn | Posted 10/24/2007 11:50:48 AM | message detail
Crono is seriously pissing me off now with this match. Either he should go ahead and kick Vincent's ass into next year, or...well, no, that's the only option. >_>
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transience | Posted 10/24/2007 11:51:19 AM | message detail
hochi is making a bad result entertaining please don't stop

"Cloud is down 5000 votes but just wait for the afterschool vote"
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"i go by statisticss put them all in an arena sepphroth="why arent your hair and mustache the same color?!" BAM dead mario" -Rathalownage
Lugia2 | Posted 10/24/2007 11:51:53 AM | message detail
After school in 15 minutes. Say goodbye to Crono, the noble nine, Link and your brackets.

Cut out those last two, and you might be right. May I be the first to remind you all that VINCENT IS NOT IN KH? The KH people tend to be kids and people who've already played Final Fantasy. The first will vote for the one they recognize- Link- and the second must have voted for the last two.

Besides: Crono is still Noble Nine, and Vinny is really close to N9 levels. Besides: If you were really that excellent, then Bowser will have already gone to Round 4 :P.
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__hiei__ | Posted 10/24/2007 11:52:17 AM | message detail
BTW

Vincent started to fall (from 28.xx%) exactly when the ASV hit in Link/Vincent/Bidoof/Zelda

let's see what happens here
MnMZero | Posted 10/24/2007 11:54:45 AM | message detail
Vincent started to fall (from 28.xx%) exactly when the ASV hit in Link/Vincent/Bidoof/Zelda

Errr.... I think those opponents all have something in common...
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MnMZero | Posted 10/24/2007 11:57:06 AM | message detail
And wow, looking at this board, I never realized people took stats topic coinages so seriously.
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Keno316 | Posted 10/24/2007 11:57:10 AM | message detail
Crono being a Noble Niner really won't ever disappear. Even if he loses in a 1 on 1 format and they're disbanded, its hard to just completely omit the term.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/24/2007 11:57:19 AM | message detail
Link is gradually signaling the after school vote. Don't fall behind, Vinnie.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/24/2007 11:58:10 AM | message detail
And wow, looking at this board, I never realized people took stats topic coinages so seriously.

Dude, it's the Noble Nine.
transience | Posted 10/24/2007 12:00:43 PM | message detail
half the board lurks this topic. why do you think we get blamed every time something goes wrong? :)

25 vote gain -- here we go
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"i go by statisticss put them all in an arena sepphroth="why arent your hair and mustache the same color?!" BAM dead mario" -Rathalownage
Shinra Reborn | Posted 10/24/2007 12:01:12 PM | message detail
IT'S GO TIME NOW
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/24/2007 12:01:25 PM | message detail
Like clockwork. Last time I'll be checking this for over two hours. Looks like the last time I'll be seeing Crono with anything near this percentage, too.
Ed Bellis | Posted 10/24/2007 12:03:37 PM | message detail
The board takes stats topics things more seriously than most people would like to admit. It's the stats topic's fault whenever something goes wrong, so naturally people have to be reading! I always think it's funny that people seem reluctant to admit that the stats topic has influence over things, yet they freely toss around terms like the Noble Nine, Xstats, etc. Where do you think those terms came from?
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MnMZero | Posted 10/24/2007 12:04:21 PM | message detail
Seriously though, that whole rule that the Noble Nine only losing to themselves wasn't made when we first called them that. It was just an observation we made about that group. Noble Nine stemmed from the Elite Eight in 2003 and Crono being there with him since he was Mario's equal for two years straight. Everything else added with the term (only lose to themselves, must have been in all summer contests, etc.) were observations added on after the fact. I just fail to see why people are making such a big deal over the term. To me, those characters are what make up that term, not the arbitrary rules added on after the fact.
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transience | Posted 10/24/2007 12:05:41 PM | message detail
yeah, I can't say I care. I'd probably call them the Noble Nine after they fall just for ease's sake -- everyone knows exactly what you're talking about. better than having to explain yourself every line.
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"i go by statisticss put them all in an arena sepphroth="why arent your hair and mustache the same color?!" BAM dead mario" -Rathalownage
Keno316 | Posted 10/24/2007 12:06:00 PM | message detail
And Link starts the 50% updates. ASV is here. GG Crono. You're still Noble Nine to me.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Heroic_Vyers | Posted 10/24/2007 12:06:21 PM | message detail
Link is now ripping Crono's heart out.

-SC
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Ed Bellis | Posted 10/24/2007 12:07:26 PM | message detail
From MnMZero Posted 10/24/2007 3:04:21 PM #225
Seriously though, that whole rule that the Noble Nine only losing to themselves wasn't made when we first called them that. It was just an observation we made about that group. Noble Nine stemmed from the Elite Eight in 2003 and Crono being there with him since he was Mario's equal for two years straight. Everything else added with the term (only lose to themselves, must have been in all summer contests, etc.) were observations added on after the fact. I just fail to see why people are making such a big deal over the term. To me, those characters are what make up that term, not the arbitrary rules added on after the fact.

This should be its own separate topic and stickied. =P
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"OoT doesn't have "the magic" because it has no Tingle." - onethousandfingers
Warsola | Posted 10/24/2007 12:07:57 PM | message detail
And Link's climb to heaven begins...
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And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes!
Keno316 | Posted 10/24/2007 12:17:08 PM | message detail
This match would have been more interesting if Crono hadn't gone and squander off all his lead in the morning...Vinny's comeback would be going right now.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
DpObliVion | Posted 10/24/2007 12:20:01 PM | message detail
Ahhh, a safe getaway from all the ridiculous NN topics on the board.

Crono still has a decent shot of coming back, right?

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Keno316 | Posted 10/24/2007 12:21:00 PM | message detail
If by a good shot you mean a hardy laugh and a few tears....then maybe...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
DpObliVion | Posted 10/24/2007 12:24:01 PM | message detail
This should be its own separate topic and stickied. =P

Agreed 100%.

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket *LETS GO GIANTS*
consolefreak | Posted 10/24/2007 12:27:11 PM | message detail
Vincent's increasing considerably now. I seriously doubt Crono will recover from whatever lead Vincent builds up, which is awesome. I just hope my alt can stay on the leaderboard :p
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linkhatesganon | Posted 10/24/2007 12:30:54 PM | message detail
It seems over for Crono! =)
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paraboxx | Posted 10/24/2007 12:32:08 PM | message detail
*sigh*

It never fails.

When a match looks over (Crono/Vincent), I call it, and they tell me I'm a fool for calling a match one hour in.

When I think there's a chance for a turnaround (Ryu/Auron), I say so, and they call me foolish for thinking a 500 vote lead can be overcome.

Naturally they end up being right every time.

Why do I even bother....
ZFS | Posted 10/24/2007 12:39:25 PM | message detail
Vincent looks really good to keep this lead going. It's awesome seeing him win this.

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red sox 777 | Posted 10/24/2007 12:43:32 PM | message detail
Why, Crono, why? And why isn't Vincent falling yet before the day vote of Link? If Crono can't come back from this, the only thing that can redeem this contest now is Cloud > Link. And probably not even that.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 211/304 -- T-792 (53 way)
Bracket: Link > Crono -- Vote: Crono!
BDawg | Posted 10/24/2007 12:43:50 PM | message detail
It doesn't even look like the afterschool is gonna let Zero crawl out of the gutter.
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creativename | Posted 10/24/2007 12:46:26 PM | message detail
Poor Crono :( I was really hoping he'd win here.

Vincent is one of the people I actually least mind him losing too, but still, it's Crono.

So much for any chances of Sephiroth>Link. They were quite slim to begin with, but the LFF between Sephiroth and Vincent should be way higher than Sephiroth/Crono.


Haste2
if you do the math, there's no way Crono and Vincent aren't LFFing each other... either that, or Link is absolutely off the scale in strength in this format (around 65% on BL).

You're math is waaay off :)

Link/Vincent/Crono are more or less expected math-wise, with Link doing a couple points better, most likely due to slight non-linearity above and beyond what Morgoth's model instrinsically estimates.


MnMZero
man, so much for Zero having a core fanbase.

Was that a knock at me? Hey, I didn't say he definitely DID have a core fanbase! I just said we didn't know yet! Besides, I'm all the core fanbase Zero needs! (Actually, no I'm not and I hate everyone for not liking Zero more).


No one has a core fanbase (barring stuffing) the way people mean it, in the context of this format.

If you are the weakest character by a decent margin, you will very likely be killed by non-linearity (unless LFF of some form saves you). We've seen this many times. There was no reason to believe Zero would be different, which is why everyone had him in the 14%-16% range for this match. Everyone knew he'd be much worse relative to Crono than last round (though, as usual, the degree of 4th place suckitude was generally underestimated).
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/24/2007 12:49:04 PM | message detail
I noticed most oracles seem to have Ganondorf beating Luigi by a greater margin than last round.

Can someone explain the logic to me? Personally I think Luigi might even do better in comparison to Ganondorf this round....
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creativename | Posted 10/24/2007 12:49:39 PM | message detail
I think the Noble Nine breaking not counting was right when it had one school of thought - that in a potential SFF match (e.g., Link/Mario/Samus vs., say, Vincent or Master Chief, or Link/Cloud/Sephiroth/Snake with Clinkeroth non-breakage last year), it wouldn't count.

However, I think if Vincent wins here, he'd probably beat Crono 1-on-1. Vincent was already close, and we have every reason to believe that Crono has now dropped under him.

I think people will still talk about the Noble Nine due to inertia and being accustomed to it, but if Vincent wins here, there would be a very legit reason to say it's broken.

I'm not sure why people care so much about the concept though. I was never a fan of it when it originated, because I thought there were a number of characters who were capable of beating a Noble Niner (e.g. SF Ryu), but that never materialized so I began to accept it as a legit concept. It's no big deal though.

And what's this "been in every contest rule" anyway? What wise guy came up with this? That was never there before. That's unnecessary.
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creativename | Posted 10/24/2007 12:51:08 PM | message detail
I noticed most oracles seem to have Ganondorf beating Luigi by a greater margin than last round.

Can someone explain the logic to me? Personally I think Luigi might even do better in comparison to Ganondorf this round....


I too find this strange. Though I spend much time looking at picks, but I guess that sample was representative from what you're saying.

Maybe when the actual picture comes out, there will be a pick-changing stampede.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/24/2007 12:51:25 PM | message detail
1:00 | 56.57%
2:00 | 54.83%
3:00 | 52.08%
4:00 | 51.40% || 4:00 | 58.33%
5:00 | 43.78% || 5:00 | 53.96%
6:00 | 41.43% || 6:00 | 51.51%
7:00 | 43.06% || 7:00 | 55.12%
8:00 | 44.04% || 8:00 | 54.27%
9:00 | 47.66% || 9:00 | 55.70%
10:00 | 47.54% || 10:00 | 56.35%
11:00 | 49.90% || 11:00 | 56.55%
12:00 | 50.15% || 12:00 | 56.97%
13:00 | 49.07% || 13:00 | 55.69%
14:00 | 49.06% || 14:00 | 57.33%
15:00 | 49.34% || 15:00 | 55.44%

Looks like this current hour is not going to follow the 2005 trends unfortunately.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 211/304 -- T-792 (53 way)
Bracket: Link > Crono -- Vote: Crono!
creativename | Posted 10/24/2007 12:54:31 PM | message detail
I see people maybe talking about a Top Ten - obviously a very common term, and also more flexible than the Noble Nine concept.

Though I still still "Noble Nine" being the most popular among these terms, again due to inertia.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/24/2007 12:56:28 PM | message detail
I think there's way too much volatility in a top 10. It's not like people like Squall are too far from Vincent. Even the noble nine was kind of pushing it

I'm more of a fan of Clinkeroth.
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
red sox 777 | Posted 10/24/2007 12:57:07 PM | message detail
Aw yeah Crono cuts the lead! It's over Vincent, Crono is taking the day vote!
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 211/304 -- T-792 (53 way)
Bracket: Link > Crono -- Vote: Crono!
MasterOfHunters | Posted 10/24/2007 12:57:49 PM | message detail
Vincent vs. Tifa, winner meets Crono?
creativename | Posted 10/24/2007 12:58:01 PM | message detail
Yes, I always liked Clinkeroth, but not the Noble Nine. Clinkeroth had much higher separation.
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