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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 530

Keno316 | Posted 10/23/2007 10:11:28 PM | message detail
Zero is just dying here.

So is BT's bracket.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Xuxon | Posted 10/23/2007 10:12:58 PM | message detail
If you ignore Bidoof altogether, Link increased about 1.5% from 1 hour in until the end. I'd say that's pretty reasonable, ending at 45.5 or so. Of course, Crono probably helps Link's day vote more than Zero hurts it, so maybe 46.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
transience | Posted 10/23/2007 10:13:25 PM | message detail
his bracket is still better than most everyone's here, sans EC and Moltar's.. which are both losing the same amount of points today, I think.

don't sink to his level.
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"i go by statisticss put them all in an arena sepphroth="why arent your hair and mustache the same color?!" BAM dead mario" -Rathalownage
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/23/2007 10:13:43 PM | message detail
Lol at all those people who doubted Crono.

Please. This match is not over. Call me when my bold prediction is wrong.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/23/2007 10:14:12 PM | message detail
This match is so over
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Janus5000 | Posted 10/23/2007 10:14:53 PM | message detail
don't sink to his level.

Can we still sink to Zero's level?
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
transience | Posted 10/23/2007 10:15:19 PM | message detail
I dunno, I think I could get 12% in a poll

also I'm glad people have picked up on the fact that this isn't over
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"i go by statisticss put them all in an arena sepphroth="why arent your hair and mustache the same color?!" BAM dead mario" -Rathalownage
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/23/2007 10:19:41 PM | message detail
Whoa! What happened to Link? He's looking to dip under 43!
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Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory
Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest
Haste_2 | Posted 10/23/2007 10:19:47 PM | message detail
In defense of Link this round, Vincent only rose 3% between hour 1 and the end despite Bidoof's presence, and Zelda actually finished lower from that time. He rose 8% last round. I think rising up to 48% isn't out of the question.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Iubaris | Posted 10/23/2007 10:20:37 PM | message detail
What the hell, Crono?
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It's iubaris, not Lubaris.
Bracket: 214/304; Oracle: 70th
Janus5000 | Posted 10/23/2007 10:20:45 PM | message detail
You can't kill the noble
The noble will live on
Magus tried to kill the noble
But he failed, as he was smote to the Knuckles
Ganondorf tried to kill the noble
But he failed, as he was stricken down to the CATS
Vincent tried to kill the noble Ha,hahahahaha
He failed, as he was thrown to the Bidoof
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/23/2007 10:22:27 PM | message detail
A lead change now would take a collapse that would break the contest history scale. I can't see such a collapse coming from a Noble Niner, no sir.
---
yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
red sox 777 | Posted 10/23/2007 10:22:58 PM | message detail
Crono's percentage of Crono/Vincent votes: 56.62%
Crono's percentage in Crono/Sonic at this time: 54.41%
Vincent's percentage in Sonic/Vincent at this time: 46.60%
Vincent's final percentage in Sonic/Vincent: 47.91%
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 179/256 -- T-474 (42 way)
Bracket: Samus > Megaman -- Vote: Megaman
Haste_2 | Posted 10/23/2007 10:23:18 PM | message detail
Well, if bring Bidoof down to Earth in the first hour, Link has 48%, which means a gain of 3%... so I guess Link might end up at more like 47% here if he's lucky.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/23/2007 10:24:09 PM | message detail
^5 for Tenacious D lyrics, Janus.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/23/2007 10:24:55 PM | message detail
Last year's Crono could still lose this match. But this year's Crono has showed no signs of last year's straight out collapse after 3-4 hours into a match
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/23/2007 10:24:58 PM | message detail
Link is not going to get 47%. You guys are dense. Zero and Vincent are going to drop maybe 1% together in the day and Crono about 2%. They aren't going to drop 10% like Bidoff, fools. Considering Link's pace (drop), he'll end up at about 45%. So he met expectations. big whoop wanna fight about it?
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Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory
Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest
creativename | Posted 10/23/2007 10:25:16 PM | message detail
Go Crono!

I hope he can stay above 21.5% by the finish. 22% I don't think he can manage, but that would be even better.

Doesn't look like Vincent will make it to 20%, though he'll probably start rocking everyone a few hours from now.
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creativename | Posted 10/23/2007 10:26:26 PM | message detail
I think expectations for Link were about 43%, though I could be off. Pretty sure it was significantly under 45% though.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/23/2007 10:27:04 PM | message detail
Link is not going to get 47%. You guys are dense. Zero and Vincent are going to drop maybe 1% together in the day and Crono about 2%.

But 3+44=47?

<_<
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/23/2007 10:27:21 PM | message detail
I had him pegged at 43%. Then again, I forgot that Zero is a low-end midcarder
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Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory
Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/23/2007 10:29:13 PM | message detail
And another Vincent stall. Again, people, this isn't over yet.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
BDawg | Posted 10/23/2007 10:31:25 PM | message detail
I guess I'll wait to see what it's like in the morning, but if Crono holds up he really deserves a slow clap with board 8 rising out of their chairs.
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Should I start running now?
smitelf | Posted 10/23/2007 10:32:34 PM | message detail
This is so over.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21
Who Cares? | Posted 10/23/2007 10:36:43 PM | message detail
Bleh, I'm sick of stalls, I want to see cuts! I'll call it a night & see what happens in the morning, even though I know I'm seriously deluding myself...and I was feeling really good about my bracket until now! >:( *shakes fist at Vincent & Crono*
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Current Points: 247 -- 4th on Leaderboard
11/17/07: The day Street Fighter 4 became a reality!
MasterOfHunters | Posted 10/23/2007 10:36:55 PM | message detail
Link pretty much increased his % from start to finish with Bidoof around on both rounds. I thought the presence of Crono would at least stop that trend during the night, but it looks like Link is at it again. I would be shocked if Link doesn't hit 48% by end of the match.
red sox 777 | Posted 10/23/2007 10:38:10 PM | message detail
Crono's percentage change on Sonic from here to the end: -5.11%
Vincent's percentage change on Sonic from here to the end: +1.22%
Crono's current percentage of Crono/Vincent votes: 56.21%

It might not be over yet......but I do think Vincent probably did a little better with the first hour today than against Sonic, owing to all the anticipation that this would be a close match.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 179/256 -- T-474 (42 way)
Bracket: Samus > Megaman -- Vote: Megaman
wavedash101 | Posted 10/23/2007 10:38:29 PM | message detail
Zero is no low end midcarder

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Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash! [no u cru]
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/23/2007 10:40:03 PM | message detail
Sonic won his first update at 2, and his second nearly an hour later. It might go better for Vince, since he's closer than Sonic was, but don't expect much of a serious change for a while.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
Seginustemple | Posted 10/23/2007 10:41:17 PM | message detail
Link is not going to get 47%. You guys are dense. Zero and Vincent are going to drop maybe 1% together in the day and Crono about 2%.

Umm....lesse, this might get into some high-end math but just follow me. 1% + 2% = 3%. 3% + 44% (This is Link's current percent) = 47%. These are numbers that YOU are using, hochi.

They aren't going to drop 10% like Bidoff, fools. Considering Link's pace (drop), he'll end up at about 45%. So he met expectations. big whoop wanna fight about it?

Is...is that a tear?

:D
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If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/23/2007 10:45:54 PM | message detail
IB hyping of Vincent cut
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
red sox 777 | Posted 10/23/2007 10:45:55 PM | message detail
Ouch, Vincent wins his first update on Crono.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 179/256 -- T-474 (42 way)
Bracket: Samus > Megaman -- Vote: Megaman
Keno316 | Posted 10/23/2007 10:46:05 PM | message detail
Well...there's your Vincent Cut...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 10:46:47 PM | message detail
it begins
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Link/Vincent/Crono/Zero - Bracket: Link > Vincent - Vote: Link (263/314)
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/23/2007 10:48:14 PM | message detail
How many times does "three is a trend" have to be repeated?
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
MasterOfHunters | Posted 10/23/2007 10:48:54 PM | message detail
Vincent in damage control mode. Expect him to win an update or two soon... this isn't over yet. I would love to see another Crono collapse, especially after what happened last year.
red sox 777 | Posted 10/23/2007 10:50:47 PM | message detail
Oh, and: Crono's lead on Zero now: 2029

Crono's lead on Zero at this time last round: 1168
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 179/256 -- T-474 (42 way)
Bracket: Samus > Megaman -- Vote: Megaman
Keno316 | Posted 10/23/2007 10:50:57 PM | message detail
And Crono makes up for that..
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/23/2007 10:50:59 PM | message detail
Well I can't say that wasn't expected
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
chocoboslayer | Posted 10/23/2007 10:55:39 PM | message detail
crono will not lose
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Xuxon | Posted 10/23/2007 10:55:55 PM | message detail
Hochi assumed Link would be dropping all night. I still kind of think he will, he dropped significantly relative to Vincent and Zelda after 2 hours.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/23/2007 10:56:30 PM | message detail
Heh, Crono won't let Vincent have anything.
---
yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
red sox 777 | Posted 10/23/2007 10:57:40 PM | message detail
Hmm......on this next update, Sonic cut Crono, and Vincent cut Sonic. Let's see if Vincent can get another cut here. Go Crono!
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 179/256 -- T-474 (42 way)
Bracket: Samus > Megaman -- Vote: Megaman
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/23/2007 10:59:45 PM | message detail
We can hope, but after the hour mark, trends started to diverge a little. There have been a similar number of stalls/big gains, but they've mostly been off by an update or two.

Heh, Crono won't let Vincent have anything.

A 14 vote cut is nothing impressive. The last fifteen minutes were Vincent's best yet.
---
Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
Seginustemple | Posted 10/23/2007 11:01:54 PM | message detail
Vincent's starting to keep Link's edge off. I wonder how long this will keep up...
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If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/23/2007 11:02:46 PM | message detail
Time | Link . . . . | Vincent | Crono . | Zero
00:00 | 39.82% | 18.15% | 29.24% | 12.79%
00:15 | 45.65% | 16.79% | 23.65% | 13.91%
00:30 | 43.65% | 19.11% | 23.42% | 13.83%
00:45 | 43.15% | 19.49% | 24.30% | 13.06%
01:00 | 44.91% | 19.24% | 23.92% | 11.94%
01:15 | 44.77% | 18.99% | 23.62% | 12.62%
01:30 | 44.54% | 19.20% | 23.66% | 12.60%
01:45 | 43.01% | 20.56% | 23.77% | 12.66%
02:00 | 42.42% | 20.84% | 25.36% | 11.38%

The night vote beginneth.
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
red sox 777 | Posted 10/23/2007 11:02:59 PM | message detail
Link falls under 43%, Vincent breaks 19%, and Crono extends his lead to 985.

Crono's percentage change on Sonic from here to the end: -5.02%
Vincent's percentage change on Sonic from here to the end: +0.84%
Crono's current percentage of Crono/Vincent votes: 55.89%

Vincent's fallen a little off his previous pace.

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Character Battle VI -- Points: 179/256 -- T-474 (42 way)
Bracket: Samus > Megaman -- Vote: Megaman
Twilight Swift | Posted 10/23/2007 11:06:22 PM | message detail
When people have to reassure themselves over and over while looking like a dunce is when they're wrong. It's nice to see Hochi worried. =D Go get 'em Link, and yay Crono!
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*~Swift~*
Giants: (5-2)
greatone10 | Posted 10/23/2007 11:07:01 PM | message detail
And we are over 1000.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line waiting for Guru results, because not enough people have played the Mario RPGs.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/23/2007 11:17:00 PM | message detail
What, nobody's gonna flip out?
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
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