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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 530

Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/23/2007 9:22:28 PM | message detail
Crono's lead on Sonic at this time: 387
Crono's lead on Vincent: 353
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/23/2007 9:22:35 PM | message detail
I would say it's much more likely Vincent catch up to Crono than for Zero to catch up to Vincent.

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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/23/2007 9:22:36 PM | message detail
How likely/unlikely is it for Zero to be able to come back and take third?

Less than 1%. Crono is light years ahead already, and this is Vincent's worst time.
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transience | Posted 10/23/2007 9:23:02 PM | message detail
There were also twice as many votes in Crono/Sonic as Crono/Vincent, making the lead half as big in a relative sense.

I agree, but look at Frog/Axel.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/23/2007 9:23:41 PM | message detail
Yeah, Vincent may make this look better, but I'd be stunned at Crono if he dropped it after this. That would be Frog-esque (and sure, same game, but Vincent's no Axel/Sonic).
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/23/2007 9:23:46 PM | message detail
Crono's lead on Sonic 20 minutes in: 387
Crono's lead on Vincent 20 minutes in: 353

The difference?

Crono/Sonic votes at 20 minutes: 4307
Crono/Vincent votes at 20 minutes: 2059
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 179/256 -- T-474 (42 way)
Bracket: Samus > Megaman -- Vote: Megaman
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/23/2007 9:24:05 PM | message detail
There were also twice as many votes in Crono/Sonic as Crono/Vincent, making the lead half as big in a relative sense.

1. Frog/Axel implies that comebacks in this format can be just as big as in a one-on-one.
2. This has a much bigger vote total than Crono/Sonic
3. Sonic won by 2000 votes. Vincent doesn't need to do that much.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/23/2007 9:24:14 PM | message detail
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/24/2007 12:20:49 AM | message detail
Link dropped. Power hour over. lol Link. His best time and he still can't meet expectations of 45%

hochiminh155 | Posted 10/24/2007 12:15:27 AM | message detail
This... is bad.



Nu-uh, don't play that. You've seen and acknowledged this is legit and scary, no more of this "cloud owned him this round" malarkey.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/23/2007 9:24:16 PM | message detail
tranny needs to stop being such a goddamn vincent fanboy
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creativename | Posted 10/23/2007 9:24:18 PM | message detail
which means link could be benefiting from the split.explaining his performance.

Yes, the people who called LFF here were right. I didn't think it would happen this match. But despite that, Link is still looking good against Cloud, this is a very good performance so far.


umm.. not to rain on everyone's "GAME" posts, but Crono had this kind of lead on Sonic too

The relative %age lead is much higher here.

It should get much tighter, as both should do well overnight and Vincent wins the day, but Crono isn't quite as bad as front-loaded as Frog, and he'd have to be something approaching that to lose.
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ZFS | Posted 10/23/2007 9:24:31 PM | message detail
It'd be nice if Vincent could start making a few cuts here soon. He probably won't, though.

But this should end up looking a lot more respectable the further we get away from this starting hour, even if Vincent doesn't manage to come back.

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__hiei__ | Posted 10/23/2007 9:24:33 PM | message detail
this can't be compared to Crono/Sonic

1 - Sonic is stronger than vincent

2 - Sonic is MUCH better with the day vote

3- it is harder to recover in this format

4- Link is on the match,making it EVEN harder
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/23/2007 9:24:34 PM | message detail
Vincent is hardly Axel with the day vote.
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wavedash101 | Posted 10/23/2007 9:24:37 PM | message detail
oh hochi dont you ever quit being wut you be now

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creativename | Posted 10/23/2007 9:24:58 PM | message detail
For some reason though, this result has me worried about MC's chances to even have a prayer of upending Sonic/Snake.

Probably the whole "The status quo keeps re-establishing itself with authority" thing.
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transience | Posted 10/23/2007 9:25:38 PM | message detail
Vincent is damn good with the day vote. he might not be Axel, but he is no joke. and Crono? he's a joke.

that said, WOO LINK EATING UP VOTES IN THE DAY
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"i go by statisticss put them all in an arena sepphroth="why arent your hair and mustache the same color?!" BAM dead mario" -Rathalownage
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/23/2007 9:25:39 PM | message detail
Link is deflating like a balloon!
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/23/2007 9:25:46 PM | message detail
god damnit crono.

if mc > yuna happens tomorrow i am going to inflict bodily harm upon myself. ****ing hell. =/
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Iubaris | Posted 10/23/2007 9:25:51 PM | message detail
Uh oh.
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Bracket: 214/304; Oracle: 70th
Keno316 | Posted 10/23/2007 9:25:59 PM | message detail
Well...Vincent is certainly fighting for it. Zero gave up though....and Link's come back down to Earth a bit.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/23/2007 9:26:07 PM | message detail
Vincent is doing better now, without the FF7 anti-vote, though.
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chaosarcher07 | Posted 10/23/2007 9:26:39 PM | message detail
Crono's beginning to slow down, but not by a lot.
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 9:26:43 PM | message detail
Vincent's getting ready to make his move. Link's letting him borrow percentage and soon...

soon..
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Link/Vincent/Crono/Zero - Bracket: Link > Vincent - Vote: Link (263/314)
TexasAggie | Posted 10/23/2007 9:26:50 PM | message detail
Crono's marginal gains are decreasing at least.
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chocoboslayer | Posted 10/23/2007 9:27:27 PM | message detail
Don't try it, Vincent.
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__hiei__ | Posted 10/23/2007 9:27:48 PM | message detail
Crono isn't slowing down

he is actualy increasing his update % little by little.vincent got a 20.% update though,so it looked like Crono fell
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/23/2007 9:27:48 PM | message detail
When you're happy about 37 vote gains, you know you're desperate.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/23/2007 9:27:51 PM | message detail
Crono's lead on Sonic at this time: 496
Crono's lead on Vincent: 390

AUGH! How can you say Vincent is worse with the day vote than Sonic when they had a direct match, and Vincent improved on Sonic after the first hour!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/23/2007 9:27:57 PM | message detail
Okay, *maybe* Link doesn't hit 50% at this rate (never count this stuff out!), but yeah. Way to reestablish yourself as the heavy favorite, you juggernaut of a characterless shell. <<
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smitelf | Posted 10/23/2007 9:28:38 PM | message detail
Yes, the people who called LFF here were right. I didn't think it would happen this match.

Really? Not to be one of those after-the-fact "this was obvious" people, but when have we NOT seen two Square RPG characters SFF/LFF each other?
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 9:28:46 PM | message detail
desperate like a fox
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Link/Vincent/Crono/Zero - Bracket: Link > Vincent - Vote: Link (263/314)
swirIdude | Posted 10/23/2007 9:29:10 PM | message detail
...Vincent/Squall? Vincent/Crono? Weren't those close?
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Tarrot | Posted 10/23/2007 9:29:15 PM | message detail
So is this another instance of "LOL, Noble 10" or should we wait to see if Vincent can make things interesting?
Keno316 | Posted 10/23/2007 9:29:23 PM | message detail
Crono is still getting the same size gains, Vincent just stole a bit from Link and Zero's pie.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/23/2007 9:30:06 PM | message detail
AUGH! How can you say Vincent is worse with the day vote than Sonic when they had a direct match, and Vincent improved on Sonic after the first hour!

That just shows Sonic has a better Power Hour than Vincent...which is definitely worth noting, sure, but don't label the other twenty-three hours as the day-vote.
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creativename | Posted 10/23/2007 9:30:34 PM | message detail
AUGH! How can you say Vincent is worse with the day vote than Sonic when they had a direct match, and Vincent improved on Sonic after the first hour!

That's because of Vincent's great overnight vote.

In terms of raw %age swings, the overnight vote is often the most important.

But yeah, the difference between Vincent and Sonic in the day isn't as big as people are making it out to be.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/23/2007 9:31:16 PM | message detail
Crono's lead on Sonic at this time: 545
Crono's lead on Vincent: 429

Seriously folks, Vincent has a much worse first hour than Sonic does.
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ZFS | Posted 10/23/2007 9:31:36 PM | message detail
I think completely counting out Vincent here is a bit premature. Crono is out to a good lead right now, but the amount he's increasing his lead by is getting smaller and smaller. If Vincent starts making cuts in the first hour, and Crono's lead is something like 500, he wouldn't need to be an Axel to turn that around.

That said, it's probably not too likely that it happens, but it's a bit early to be completely dooming Vincent, especially knowing the anti-FF7 vote is always present for a good while early on.

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__hiei__ | Posted 10/23/2007 9:32:13 PM | message detail
Link just stole from everyone but crono there
paraboxx | Posted 10/23/2007 9:32:22 PM | message detail
...Vincent/Squall? Vincent/Crono? Weren't those close?

I was thinking about those earlier, actually. But then I remembered Cloud/Sephiroth '03. They were neck and neck back then, and still pretty close in later matches. But in last year's Battle Royale, Cloud dropped Sephiroth enough for him to lose to Solid Snake.

Just because they're close one-on-one doesn't mean much here, I don't think.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/23/2007 9:32:36 PM | message detail
Link is not characterless. He actually had every character in the world stuffed into him, but then his true, silent badass character told them all to shut it.

I wish we were back in 2002 when the board actually liked Link. =(
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/23/2007 9:33:06 PM | message detail
The thing is Crono/Vincent are getting less than half the total votes that Crono/Sonic got, so that lead means a lot more.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 179/256 -- T-474 (42 way)
Bracket: Samus > Megaman -- Vote: Megaman
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/23/2007 9:33:08 PM | message detail
Time | Link . . . | Bidoof . . | Vincent | Zelda
01:00 | 43.36% | 24.48% | 24.21% | 07.94%
02:00 | 44.59% | 22.26% | 25.44% | 07.71%
03:00 | 45.58% | 16.43% | 29.46% | 08.53%
04:00 | 47.54% | 14.44% | 29.74% | 08.29%
05:00 | 46.31% | 11.84% | 33.18% | 08.67%
06:00 | 47.70% | 09.77% | 33.22% | 09.30%
07:00 | 50.23% | 12.72% | 29.14% | 07.90%
08:00 | 52.59% | 11.60% | 27.84% | 07.97%
09:00 | 52.79% | 11.22% | 27.32% | 08.67%
10:00 | 51.73% | 11.24% | 29.00% | 08.04%
11:00 | 51.90% | 10.13% | 29.67% | 08.30%
12:00 | 53.34% | 10.22% | 28.82% | 07.62%
13:00 | 51.05% | 11.33% | 29.68% | 07.94%
14:00 | 52.28% | 09.93% | 29.80% | 07.99%
15:00 | 53.16% | 09.78% | 29.03% | 08.04%
16:00 | 54.72% | 11.85% | 26.57% | 06.86%
17:00 | 55.13% | 11.51% | 26.56% | 06.80%
18:00 | 54.99% | 11.68% | 26.07% | 07.26%
19:00 | 54.27% | 10.92% | 26.95% | 07.86%
20:00 | 55.10% | 11.15% | 26.26% | 07.49%
21:00 | 54.62% | 11.47% | 27.19% | 06.72%
22:00 | 54.03% | 11.39% | 26.81% | 07.77%
23:00 | 53.50% | 11.19% | 27.51% | 07.80%
00:00 | 51.32% | 10.03% | 31.37% | 07.28%

Bidoof's hours can be safely ignored.

Vincent is a night character.
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Seginustemple | Posted 10/23/2007 9:33:21 PM | message detail
I still like Link, Yoblazer.
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creativename | Posted 10/23/2007 9:33:28 PM | message detail
Really? Not to be one of those after-the-fact "this was obvious" people, but when have we NOT seen two Square RPG characters SFF/LFF each other?

Well you're certainly not after-the-fact, I think it was you that I was discussing this with where you expected LFF :)

I didn't think it would happen, though of course I'm not shocked or anything. I just figured Vincent/Crono had pretty non-overlapping fanbases, and that Link/Crono would overlap almost as much.
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th3l3fty | Posted 10/23/2007 9:33:39 PM | message detail
From ZFS Posted 10/24/2007 12:31:36 AM #138
Crono is out to a good lead right now, but the amount he's increasing his lead by is getting smaller and smaller.

Please explain how 39 is less than 37!
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/23/2007 9:33:53 PM | message detail
You are a good man.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/23/2007 9:34:02 PM | message detail
hey guys remember when dante was doing really good against vincent in the first hour, and im pretty sure he was leading him for a little while before losing like 53-47.

i do

i hate building myself up with false hope
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/23/2007 9:34:04 PM | message detail
That just shows Sonic has a better Power Hour than Vincent...which is definitely worth noting, sure, but don't label the other twenty-three hours as the day-vote.

Well, yeah. I was mainly talking about the first hour, since obviously we can't make judgments on the night/day transition yet.
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/23/2007 9:34:15 PM | message detail
This match took way too long to come. Now BT can shut the hell up about Zero.
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Today's Pick: Mega Man > Knux (whoops)
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