GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 529
| LordOfDabu | Posted 10/23/2007 7:00:45 PM | message detail |
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Three swordsmen, yet the picture lacks swords! (I realize Zero didn't use his Z-saber in the first game) --- Hello world |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/23/2007 7:03:52 PM | message detail |
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Once again, the only CT sprite overperformances were Frog/Snake, Magus/Link and Crono/Mario 2k4. The first 2 can be explained by their opponents getting screwed with bad pics and the last is explained by the drop off in votals in 2004. TuRtLe ~~~ 245/304 in the contest. Next pick: Link > ZERO BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/23/2007 7:04:13 PM | message detail |
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I think that only confirms Vincent's upcoming dominance! --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/23/2007 7:05:34 PM | message detail |
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So if MC > Yuna occurs, MC > Dante is a (virtual) lock for the next round, right? ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/23/2007 7:05:42 PM | message detail |
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There's a limit to how much just one person's bad pic can bring you
down. It certainly helped, but I doubt one bad pic purely no Solid's
end would bring him down to Liquid's level. And Link only getting 65%
on Magus... come on now. Although personally I don't think there was ever any implication of Crono overperforming with a sprite. Which is understandable considering his name recognition. I mean his name is in the game --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/23/2007 7:06:36 PM | message detail |
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Also, when Crono isn't getting a sprite he IS getting DBZ factor. The others, not really so much... --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/23/2007 7:07:03 PM | message detail |
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MC > _____ is a virtual lock. Pick Dante or Leon for the blank. I'll take Dante, but Leon is more than capable. --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/23/2007 7:08:29 PM | message detail |
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Anyway, the pic factor should be minimized in this format anyway.
Chances are if you're voting for someone in this format, it's because
you actually like them over the other 3, instead of maybe just some
arbitrary reason in a 1v1 match. --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/23/2007 7:09:10 PM | message detail |
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I'm taking Leon...but, yeah, anybody's game there. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| cyko | Posted 10/23/2007 7:09:40 PM | message detail |
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come on, now. Crono's Toriyama pic has WAY more casual appeal than his
sprite. looking like a well known Dragon Ball Z character AND wielding
a sword is gonna help Crono a lot more than his mediocre sprite. if
anything, Crono's sprite pic is going to help Vincent's chances even
more. --- I support the following SC2K6 characters: L-Block, Phoenix Wright, Magus, Agent J, Vincent Valentine, Miles Edgeworth, HK-47, Zero, Kefka |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/23/2007 7:09:41 PM | message detail |
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*taking Leon now that we've seen the situation Ganon's in. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| cyko | Posted 10/23/2007 7:11:47 PM | message detail |
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MC > _____ is a virtual lock. Pick Dante or Leon for the blank. I'll take Dante, but Leon is more than capable. if Dante and Leon both make it to Round 4, i'm taking Yuna over those two. they're similar enough to slow each other down. --- I support the following SC2K6 characters: L-Block, Phoenix Wright, Magus, Agent J, Vincent Valentine, Miles Edgeworth, HK-47, Zero, Kefka |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/23/2007 7:15:05 PM | message detail |
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I don't think so... DMC and RE are pretty different style games.
Granted they're both Capcom games, and "mature" but the game play is
significantly different. Plus Leon is probably getting most of his
strength from the GC/Wii versions. The PS2 version definitely
contributes to it, but I don't know how much. --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/23/2007 7:15:41 PM | message detail |
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If Ganon doesn't advance, I hope Yuna beats Dante/Leon. The bracket percentages are going to be sooooooooooo low..... --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/23/2007 7:16:10 PM | message detail |
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I can't wait to see RE2 Leon potentially ruin Dante/Leon. --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| __hiei__ | Posted 10/23/2007 7:16:29 PM | message detail |
| i'm gonna just assume that if there is any meaningful "dbz fanbase" supporting crono,his sprite STILL looks "dbzish" enough to get him those votes. |
| Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/23/2007 7:17:02 PM | message detail |
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So if MC > Yuna occurs, MC > Dante is a (virtual) lock for the next round, right? You're in pretty good shape with Leon as well, as far as the Gurus are concerned. If Vincent wins, you'd be two up on Moltar and tied with me, except with probably a better tiebreaker. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/23/2007 7:19:11 PM | message detail |
| Why is RE2-Leon going to ruin him? RE2 was the #1
RE game before RE4 came, and I don't remember him being revamped for
RE4. Are the graphics for RE2 worse than I remember or something? --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/23/2007 7:19:28 PM | message detail |
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Well better to get RE2 Leon in this round when he's probably guaranteed
to advance rather than the next round where it should be a pretty good
fight for 2nd --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/23/2007 7:19:30 PM | message detail |
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If Luigi tanks, I'll be cheering for Yuna to make it as far as possible. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/23/2007 7:24:52 PM | message detail |
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I hope Leon gets a Resident Evil: Gaiden sprite. --- Explicit Content. hungry like the wolf |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/23/2007 7:25:21 PM | message detail |
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Here's what Leon will probably look like: http://image.com.com/gamespot/images/2003/news/01/17/re2_screen008.jpg Sure, it isn't RE4, but it isn't terrible. He shouldn't lose to Pikachu, at least. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| smitelf | Posted 10/23/2007 7:26:52 PM | message detail |
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Looking at the match pic, I don't see any big problems. Link is Link -
I don't think a character of his status can be hurt too much by a pic.
Vincent is the one who pops to me because he's the only one with a
(dark) 3D sprite. My favorite pic is probably Zero's though. --- Official Queen ***** of the Universe! Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/23/2007 7:27:00 PM | message detail |
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Round 3- Division 4 Finals Previous Matches: Round 1 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2869 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2870 Round 2 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2899 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2900 Characters Involved: Link Last round, Link looked unimpressive against the combination of Zelda leeching and Bidoof. And despite him getting the same pic that let Magus get 35% on him in 2003, Link should have no trouble dominating here. If he can pull in 40% against Cloud, Sephiroth and Snake, he should be able to get at least that here. Vincent He actually looked somewhat unimpressive last round, but his first round victory was decisive enough that he has a great shot at advancing here. Crono Crono has performed exactly to expectations in both his matches. Which means despite Frog and Magus, he's looking to be at the same place he was last year, which is a clear enough step above Vincent that he should be considered the favourite here. Zero Ah Zero. Despite his match against Luigi last year, Zero is looking to be back at his 2005 numbers with his victory against the Jak pack going exactly to the numbers based off of Zero/Lloyd, and his performance against Crono lining up with what Zero would be projected against Sonic in 2005. A huge underdog here, but certainly not out of the running. Predictions: Here it is, what will probably be the biggest match of the contest barring Cloud > Link happening. We have Link who should have no trouble getting first, Crono and Vincent who should be close enough to eachother that this is a tossup, and Zero, a highcarder that could squeeze by through Square SFF alone. First, let's look at Vincent. Last year, he's projected to get about 48% on Crono through Sonic. He's clearly the strongest non-Noble Niner after taking down Squall and Ganondorf in 2005/2006. Secondly, despite Frog and Magus looking like crap, Crono has actually done pretty good for himself so far this year. The fact that he already beat Vincent decisively in an SFF match is good news for Link > Crono backers. Finally, we come to my dark horse Zero. So far this contest, it has looked as though Zero is back where he was in 2005, and his match against Luigi was the result of some fluke that didn't carry over to Luigi/Sonic, making Zero really underrated in the stats. Zero has a lot going for him in this match though. For starters, Link has the LoZ sprite which resulted in Magus being a massively overrated turd, which should shut up any "Link/Zero SFF" arguments. Secondly, his competition for second, despite being a clear step above him in strength, will be SFFing eachother, making this match a close 3-way battle. Lastly, Zero has fan favourite status, which will certainly help him out here if Link gets too carried away. For those that question Vincent/Crono SFF, I direct you to the votals for 2005. Crono/Vincent total votes: 95360 Mario/Samus total votes: 97519 Vincent/Squall total votes: 97743 Clearly there was some degree of SFF in that match, as aside from Mega Man/Yoshi (an SFF beat-down) Crono/Vincent was the lowest scoring match in that round. Of course, the 3-way race for second is only one thing that will be discussed today, the other being Link's inevitable underperformance, which should get the Cloud > Link upset train running. It will be hilarious to see it crash and burn. TuRtLe's Prediction: Link - 42%, Zero 20%, Vincent 19%, Crono 19% TuRtLe's Bracket: Link > Zero TuRtLe's Vote: Zero TuRtLe ~~~ 245/304 in the contest. Next pick: Link > ZERO BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/23/2007 7:27:10 PM | message detail |
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He will look like Dante's *****, however. Which is just fine in my book. ^_^ ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/23/2007 7:27:48 PM | message detail |
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http://www.resoldat.com/files/re2_1.jpg Aw yeah cutscene Leon --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/23/2007 7:34:16 PM | message detail |
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If Yuna advances, Ashe probably wins barring any major upsets. TuRtLe ~~~ 245/304 in the contest. Next pick: Link > ZERO BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/23/2007 7:35:24 PM | message detail |
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I can't come up with a good comparison for this.. I guess Gannon works.
Leon is far more known in RE4 than RE2, he looks a bit different, and I
don't think he has the same recognition as the other elites. he seems a
bit more pic-sensitive than the others, and given that Dante/Leon
should be looked at as a tossup.. yeah. --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 7:42:10 PM | message detail |
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Division 4: Round 3 - Match 52 – Link vs. Vincent Valentine vs. Crono vs. Zero Moltar’s Analysis Link Round 1 – 70.50% vs. Bidoof, Miles and Agent J Round 2 – 51.19% vs. Vincent, Bidoof and Zelda Oh Link, you crazy beast you. Vincent Round 1 – 38.68% vs. Zelda, The Boss and Tails Round 2 – 27.75% vs. Link, Bidoof and Zelda Vincent does pretty well for himself. Crono Round 1 – 48.18% vs. Raiden, Sam and Simon Round 2 – 36.65% vs. Zero, Raiden and HK-47 Noble Niner, huh? Zero Round 1 – 39.56% vs. HK-47, Lloyd and Jak Round 2 – 32.64% vs. Crono, Raiden and HK-47 Well, that’s quite the turnaround from Round 1! Previously, Link ran into the powerful character Vincent on his path to the 6th Character Battle. With Vincent holding Zelda hostage, Link could do nothing to stop him. That is, until Bidoof took a blast from Vincent and saved Link. This caused Vincent to retreat, but swore to return to stop Link. The Setting - A grassy field with trees and bushes nearby. Link: This sure is a beautiful day! Clear skies, nice weather. I just wish I could relax. But, I have no time to stop. Gotta get to the Character Battle! *A bullet then whizzes past Link’s head* Link: What was that?! Vincent: Hello again, Link. Link: You! This time you won’t escape! Vincent: I plan to fight you until the death this time. Link: Then let’s go! *Link starts to charge towards Vincent, but another figure appears from out of nowhere in front of Link* ???: … Link: Is that…the red hair, the sword, the Toriyama art-style…Crono! Vincent: Crono… Crono: … Link: What? Are you saying that I should go on ahead to the Character Battle stadium while you fight Vincent? Crono: … Vincent: Ha! You might have beaten me before, but I’m stronger this time. You’re getting older though, time hasn’t been kind to you. Crono: … Link: Time is on your side? Whatever, bro! Are you sure you can handle him though? Crono: … Link: Yeah, you’re right. Us old-school silent adventure heroes have to stick together! Thanks for this Crono! *Link takes off, while Crono readies his sword to take on Vincent. Meanwhile, another character is hiding behind a tree nearby* Zero:This is my chance! Once Vincent and Crono tire each other out, I’ll be able to just walk in and finish both off. What an awesome plan. Once I defeat those two, everyone will show me the respect I deserve! *Zero then pulls out a heart-shaped locket and opens it* This one is for you, Turtle, my love *smooch smooch*. Vincent: CRRRROOONNNOOOO!!!! *fires a blast from his guns at him* Crono: …!!!!!!!!!! *fires an energy blast from his sword* Zero: This is it! *Zero jumps out as the two blasts collide, and he is blasted into the sky just from the sheer force of the blasts. Vincent and Crono are unaffected.* Vincent: He’s still strong…but there’s no way he stands up to my ultimate attack. Crono: … *He began to prepare for a powerful attack* Vincent: Die! Death Penalty! *transforms and charges after Crono* Crono: …! *Crono sends off a Luminare at close range, and the two attacks collide, causing a massive explosion. Smoke heavily obscures the battlefield, and after a few minutes, it begins to clear, leaving only one man left standing.* ~*Part 3: Fin*~ You already know how important this match is, so I’ll try and keep it short. Link takes first, but with three fan-favorites here, it would be a real feat to break 50% again. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 7:42:28 PM | message detail |
| Zero has the least chance of taking second. Yeah
yeah, Vincent and Crono hurt each other enough to the point where blah
blah we know. I just don’t see it happening. Zero has collapsed to
Mario and Luigi in the past, and now he’s got Link here. I just don’t
see him holding up well. I’ve had Vincent in second sice Day 1 and I’m only feeling better about it. Crono’s decent performance in Round 1 and poor showing in Round 2 haven’t convinced me that he’ll take second. Combine that with the fact Link beat him down before, CT’s overall decline, and Vincent holding up well last round, and the Vincent train keeps on chugging! Moltar’s Bracket Says: Link > Vincent Moltar’s Prediction is: Link: 46% - Vincent: 21% - Crono: 19% - Zero: 14% Ultimaterializer’s Analysis This seems to be everyone's upset special. How many times has BT told us that he has Zero advancing through this? OVER 9000?? The problem there is that Zero is a non-Square, non-Nintendo wonder. Great character until he faces one of those two companies, so he's out. Link is a lock for first throughout the entire contest. Crono vs Vincent however should be a load of fun. In 2005, Crono won a direct match between the two 55-45. In 2006, Crono completely collapsed against Sonic and confirmed the downward trend of CT that has gone on since 2004. Between Magus and Frog's utter embarrassments over the last three years (including this one; Frog relying on 25th-hour cheating to beat Axel is pathetic, and his true colors came out in the second round), it's only a matter of time before Crono follows suit. CT is falling pretty fast, and Vincent has been on a big upswing. Very few people had him winning his division in 2005 or beating Ganon in 2006 (followed by a pretty damn good performance against Sonic), but he did it. This year, he killed Zelda in the first round and managed nearly 28% in a four-way poll with Link in it. He made up 4% on Crono in the LOL, X-STATS between 2005 and 2006. And on top of that 4% increase, I'm 99% sure that Snake's match with Sonic is anomalous. Who in the hell watched that entire contest last year and honestly believes Mega Man and Sonic are still near-equals? Something weird happened in that match. For all we know, Vincent could *already* be stronger than Crono and we just haven't seen it yet. There's also the SFF to consider, of which we're far more likely to see Vincent > Crono than Crono > Vincent. A good deal of CT's performance in 2004 came from FF7 anti-votes and CT still being relavent. Either Crono or Mega Man will break the Noble Nine eventually. Given CT's recent history, might as well call it now. This is the best opportunity yet to see it happen. Well, that and Jay Solano's beatdown of Link last year. Ulti's Prediction: Link [43.00%] Vincent [23.00%] Crono [21.00%] Zero [13.00%] Heroic Mario’s Analysis With the exception of the finals, I think this may be my most anticipated match of the entire contest. For two years now, Vincent’s been looking like he’d be the guy who’d finally fell the noble nine. He started out with 45% on Crono, then returned the next year to get 48% on Sonic and, statistically, was near even with Crono. We’ve seen both of their performances for two rounds now – and Vincent looks like he has a definite edge heading in. This contest – and format – hasn’t been kind to Chrono Trigger characters. Frog nearly got ousted by Axel; Magus got beat by Big Boss; and Crono couldn’t manage 40% in round 2, despite nearly every other noble niner doing so. Nothing looks very good for him heading into this one, other than the fact that he’s a part of the infallible “noble nine.” That may well be the only advantage he has for this match. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 7:43:18 PM | message detail |
| FF7, on the other hand, has been performing
amazingly so far. Cloud is looking like he has an actual shot at the
championship again, and Sephiroth has been looking great since round 2.
One would think that would also extend over to Vincent, and that may be
one of the things that propels him ahead today. If you take the CT
fanbase against the FF7 fanbase, I think there’s no question which of
the two comes out on top, just going by the performances in this
contest alone. I think this one could go either way between Vincent and Crono, but I’m not all that sure this ends up being too close. Vincent has looked like he has had a clear edge for a while now, and with him already having faced Link, there’s no question about what kind of performance he’s capable of putting up. There shouldn’t be much in the way of “SFF” here either. I think you’ve got two equally strong characters who aren’t going to steal a whole lot from the other. It doesn’t matter a whole lot in their match for second, but I think it puts Zero out of contention, since he’s relying on some noticeable SFF or “LFF” or whatever. As for Link, what he does today will get a lot of people talking about the finals. If he fails to impress, or even do decently, there’s going to be a whole lot more people jumping on the Cloud > Link bandwagon. The expectations seem to be set right around 45% for him to come away looking good. I could easily see Link hitting that today, despite my prediction being only 40%. This will be Link’s first match without any joke characters (‘doof ‘doof ‘doof) and that could make a difference – it’s also his first match against notable competition. This is looking to be one of the most entertaining matches of the contest. This is the first real chance we’ve had to see the noble nine finally get beaten, and with Crono sporting his sprite and having no real detrimental factors at play, he doesn’t have a whole lot of excuses for losing this one. Three FF7 characters in the top 9? BELIEVE Link – 40% Vincent – 24% Crono – 21% Zero – 17% Bracket: Link > Crono Vote: Vincent Yoblazer’s Analysis Ah, we've finally arrived! After two days of boredom, we have reached the two best, most anticipated matches of the round, and we get them back-to-back! Excited? I know I am, and that's without a hint of my crappy sarcasm, so let's set the small talk aside and analyze this thing! Today's match features Link, Crono, Vincent, and Zero. While Link's victory is assured, there can still be some attention diverted to the Zelda star. Cloud Strife, his nemesis of four years running, has looked unbelievably stellar thus far, as if he's sending a message to Link. The last time he did this was in 2003, and we all know the terrible result that contest year produced. It's up to Link to show that he's still the most dominant character on this site, but can he do it today? Personally, I have my doubts. Link is cursed with what is easily the worst picture of the bunch, his infamous "Christian Crusader/Bible Link" persona. More closely resembling a dwarf Jehovah's Witness than the Hero of Time, this is easily Link at his weakest, as evidenced by his 2003 match against Magus, in which he drew the same picture and put up the worst (percentage-wise) performance of his career. In addition to his picture woes, Link's opponents are all being hyped as having a shot at second place. This could lead to intense bracket voting and rallying, which, in turn, would undervalue Link. Sadly, I see an underperformance looming today, and I see the Cloud > Link hype train picking up a few more patrons. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 7:43:43 PM | message detail |
| Setting our defending champ aside, the REAL fun
today is in the battle for second place. Vincent and Crono are the
heavy favorites, but that hasn't stopped some support from being thrown
Vincent's way. While I won't call it impossible, I will call it
extremely improbable. Sure, Zero might benefit from the potential
Crono/Vincent SFF, but he's still easily the weakest of the three, and
he'll also likely feel Link's Christian wrath the most. That doesn't
spell success - not in my book, anyway. I'd sooner expect to Zero
languishing in a distant fourth place before I see him in contention to
move on. I gave Zero a pity paragraph, but the true fight is between Vincent and Crono. The aging Noble Niner versus the guy who has been lauded as the Noble Nine's biggest threat for two years. These two met once before in 2005, and it was Crono who came away with the surprisingly narrow 55/45 margin of victory. Logically, that would put him as the favorite here, but things have changed in the last two years. Vincent Valentine has been on a roll. Since the Crono loss, he has starred in his own game, made an appearance in the wildly popular FFVII movie, and had a magnificent 2006 contest, easily beating Ganon in the first round's biggest match before giving Sonic quite the scare. This year, he's easily looked more impressive than his SNES counterpart, destroying Zelda before holding up relatively well to a Link on an SFF rampage. Crono, on the other hand, is coming off a very lackluster performance in which he let Zero finish within 4% of him. It's hard to imagine Vincent doing that poorly. Vincent's fan favorite and FFVII status could help him, and he has the added advantage of almost assuredly having the smallest overlap with Link. If Link hurts Crono just a teeny bit more, it's over. Crono might still have the advantage of traditional SFF, but he sure hasn't looked capable of that these past few years. Either way, expect a great one! Link - 44% Vincent Valentine - 22% Crono - 21% Zero - 13% Lopen’s Analysis Oooh, one of the most debated matches in the bracket... alright, my gloves are off, here. I've heard tales that Zero is going to win because of the split square vote... that Crono is going to win because he's friggin noble nine, or Vincent is gonna win because he barely lost to Sonic and Crono is declining. So I said... which do I believe? None of the above, maybe? Well, based offa 2005 and really, just what I think... I don't buy any sort of severe split in the square vote between Crono and Vincent. Two different generations, not from the same series. Yeah, there'll be some... but you know what other pairs have the potential to overlap? Link->Crono: Old school SNES split. Link->Zero: Mega Man behaves like a nintendo character, Zero might too... his match against Mario in 2005 was a bit suspect if you ask me. Crono->Zero: Old school SNES split. Zero->Vincent: My first two games for the PS were FF7 and MMX4... this should be obvious! Basically I'm saying... the splits should be ignored. Every competior has a case to split with at least one character... and none of them make much worse a case than the Crono/Vincent argument if you ask me. (Okay maybe Zero/Vincent but shut up!) So me... I'm taking Vincent. Vincent's looked good every round... and I do think Crono is on the decline. Zero has a case if you believe in weighted fanbase splits here... he came within 5% of Crono last round, but I don't think he'll be helped. Some might be ringing the Cloud > Link upset bells... but even if my low Link % happens... I'm not. Let me just say that this four pack is way stronger than Cloud's. Vincent > Ryu easily, Zero is probably about the equal of SFFed Auron. Oh and then we've got Marcus Fenix who gets to compare himself with Crono... OHOHO... yeah, right. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 7:44:29 PM | message detail |
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Lopen's Prediction Link - 38.92% Vincent - 22.89% Crono - 19.99% Zero - 18.00% Karma Hunter’s Analysis Well, let's get it over with. Link Pulverizes Vincent and some jokes in yet another dominating performance. Seeing as how Cloud is actually entertaining the thought of perhaps challenging him again, Link may very well come out pasting this grouping despite being the strongest threepack we've seen yet. ...well, that's what Link does. *sigh* How much am I supposed to write more than a paragraph for the guy? <.< Crono Not an especially good performance last round from Crono, as Zero gets eerily closer than many expect. Sealing the deal on Vincent progressing to the next round, or Zero recovering some from his 2k6 flop? Vincent Valentine Yeah, a guy who let Bidoof lead him for an hour may very well be considered the favorite here. Vincent still looked sharp in the end, and his dominating first-round performance isn't exactly something to ignore. Zero The wild card here, the only thing stopping Zero from taking advantage of Crono and Vincent sharing a fanbase is 1.) more and more it doesn't seem that they do and 2.) Nintendo has obliterated Mega and him in the past. Oh, and being a great deal weaker than 'em both, but minor details. So how does this epic battle for second go? Let's break it down, shoving annoyances out of the way for a second. As far as this contest goes, Vincent's looked just plain, flat-out better than Crono. Him crushing Zelda and the rest of that not-too-bad pack, holding up against Link well, as opposed to Crono's ho-hum performances have him riding high on an upset bandwagon so loud it could be argued he's not even the underdog anymore. To compound Crono's problems, Vincent is easily the most independent character in the match as far as consoles go - Link, Crono, and Zero all hold a heavy presence on the SNES, while Vincent has been a Sony-exclusive phenomenon. They're both technically Square, yes, but old and new Square haven't shown significant overlap in the past, and that doesn't really help him considering we already saw Vincent/Crono, and Crono got no disproportionate advantage whatsoever. ...however, it's worth noting that Vincent has looked flat-out BETTER than Crono as well when considering his match pictures. Not that it's an aberration or anything - you'd be hard-pressed to find many characters more photogenic than Vincent - but it does kind of matter when Vincent is stuck with one of his worst pictures to date. Meanwhile, Crono was saddled with a decent enough picture first round, but that second round picture - on the match that had people calling for his head - was an abomination. And now we see Crono in full-on sprite glory, and with my pick for best picture of the match. Call it coincidence or not, but we've seen Chrono Trigger perform with sprites before, and four out of five times the results have been: Magus scoring high enough on Link to outrank Sonic, Frog giving Solid Snake a scare, Crono barely losing to Mario in a match that Mario had to perform perhaps the most blatant cheating ever to win, and Crono beating the piss out of Mario. ...the problem there? Sprite #5 was, again, during Vincent/Crono #1, and Vincent held up like a freakin' champ. Crono's got the advantage here, but he should have had it LAST time. So that brings us to our little guy we haven't been able to stop hearing about the last few months - Zero. Does he have a chance? Well, sure - anyone has a chance in most debatable matches given the format. Okay, does he have a REALISTIC chance? Well, yeah - it's gone over PLENTY of times in the stats topic, but everyone being reduced so low, especially by Link, throws a lot of things up in the air. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 7:45:00 PM | message detail |
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...that being said, it's not a particularly good one, and certainly not
reasonable enough for masses to have been subjected to nonstop
blathering for the past few months. Which is a shame, because I may
even like Zero more than anyone else in this match, and him moving on
would at least spark temporary hope and interest in a Sephiroth upset
down the line while Link is being double-drained by Mario/Zero. But as it stands? Go for 5%, Zero (not that I'm predicting him there...! all the way...) Oh, and if you haven't figured it out, I'm sticking with Vincent here. Crono's got a lot of arguments, but they've all got a share of flaws, I trust in Vincent's fan-favoritism... and frankly, I think he could beat Crono one-on-one if you hold the match today. This won't prove anything like that, but it could be a start... Karma Hunter's Vote: Vincent Valentine. Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Link with 44%, Vincent Valentine with 22%, Crono with 20%, Zero with 14% Upset Probability: 45% A very good chance for Crono, and heck, why not even throw in a little for Zero? I'm nothing if not generous. Transience’s Analysis here it is -- the match most of us have been dying for. the end of the Noble Nine. I'm sure everyone's looking forward to the death of one of the silliest terms we've coined. Ulti probably took three shots at Crono, all within his requisite two line analysis where he apologizes for being brief for the 14th time this contest. Heroic Mario's probably got 7 uses of ! in his analysis, along with some "yo I want Vincent Valentine's nuts" going on. yoblazer's probably all YO LINK WHO CARES BOUT THESE BUMS. Moltar's all "yeahhh I'm gon' win this contest". we're looking at history here. before I get to that, though: Link. I've spent the last week defending Link pretty hard, so I should probably write about him here. obviously, he takes first, but I think he impresses here. yeah, even with Bible Link potentially holding him back. as we've seen in other matches, "joke characters" can really murder percentages. Sephiroth's round 1 and 2 matches are the best example -- take CATS out and Sephiroth does even better. I expect the same to be true of Link here, and I think people will be like "...damn." I'm looking for Link to get near 45%, which is really impressive when you consider his formidable competition: a former Noble Nine killer, a modern Noble Nine killer and a Noble Nine guy. now that's a fourpack. anyway. Vincent has every conceivable advantage here: - he's projected to lose to Crono 51.5/48.5 based on last year's stats, but with everything CT-related in a crazy tailspin, not to mention how good FF7 has looked this year, he has a great shot at being stronger. - he's the most unique character in the poll; Link, Crono and Zero all share the SNES, and you can make the argument that Link and Crono are the same guy. meanwhile, Vincent is the only guy without Nintendo ties. - Vincent is the textbook definition of "fan-favourite", a character type that does extremely well in these kinds of polls. he did great in that old FF7 "who is your favourite character" poll, and he did all right vs. Link. not great, not bad, just all right -- what was expected, basically. Vincent has shown no weakness in three years and it's tough to see him flopping now. Crono's advantages, meanwhile: - HE'S NOBLE NINE LOL |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 7:45:36 PM | message detail |
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I can't come up with anything else. pre-contest I thought that this
contest was tailor-made for CT -- it seems like the ultimate
fan-favourite title, but Frog and Magus have bombed pretty hard so far
in this setting. a vote for Crono, in my opinion, is a vote for Chrono
Trigger, but that hasn't played out so well either. Crono hasn't bombed
yet, but he hasn't done anything good yet either. he's been
disappointing by a couple percentage points each round, and if he does
that here, Vincent probably advances. - he's got a sprite. there's been talk for years that CT is helped out by sprites. Magus did great on -- whaddya know -- Bible Link in 2003, Frog put up that crazy percentage on Snake in 2004. both of those are probably the opponent's fault, though, especially in Snake's case. Magus could have just been legitimately strong in 2003, which looks even probable. also, Crono's had some sprites before -- including against Vincent in 2005 -- and not done anything special. people point to Crono/Mario 2004, but that doesn't have anything to do with anything. Crono (and Chrono Trigger) was flat out at his peak in 2004. the sprite isn't going to help him. but you know what? I'm not abandoning Crono. part of it is because I always pick against Vincent. it's tradition, he always burns me, and I end up losing lots of points. me picking Crono should probably make Vincent a lock. but I just trust Crono to bring in that small percentage necessary for whatever reason. I don't have any good reasoning for it other than "it's Crono, noble nine guy, beat Mario, blah blah blah", but I just don't want to abandon him here. lastly, there's Zero. put another neutral character in place of Link -- maybe Solid Snake -- and I take Zero for second. I think he has a small chance of taking second here, too. Link really thwomped Mega Man in 2004 though and I don't see any reason why that would change. plus, I don't even think Crono and Vincent are that close fanbase-wise. Crono's had matches with Vincent, Auron and Zidane, and every one of them looks fairly legit so far. maybe they've simply all lined up number-wise and there's significant overlap there, but it sure doesn't look like it. Zero needs to resist Link *and* have a serious SFF split in order to take second. actually, that might not even be enough - he needs Link to dominate. he might be able to get to third place, but second is out of his grasp. biggest Noble Nine test yet. not that it would count in this weird format. transience's prediction: Link with 45.11%, Crono with 19.80%, Vincent with 19.53%, Zero with 15.56% Guest’s Analysis - Zylo the Wolf Hi Board 8. This is Zylo the Wolf trying to beat the ”crue” on how the upcoming match with Link, Vincent, Crono and Zero. I feel like an ass for stealing this from Black Turtle, but hey everyone already knows that he believes in Zero. Just like everyone else, I’ll analyze what every character have done so far in the contest Link: Getting 70% in this format was impressive for Link, but then again his opponents in round 1 wasn’t strong characters. In fact just calling them fodder is an understatment, no matter how awesome Edgeworth is. In his second match however, I’m not sure if Link did as expected or dissappointed. Anyway with another Zelda character, and a joke Pokémon in the same poll, I don’t think it was impressive for Link to barely break 50%, but he’s still a lock to make it to the finals so who cares? Vincent: Vincent is another character who have had his ups and downs this year. His first match was very impressive, but he allowed Bidoof to get the lead on him for a long time. Then again Vincent ended it pretty good. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 7:46:13 PM | message detail |
| Crono: Eh... Crono have seen better days won’t get
any stronger for awhile, unless a Vc/Remake release of his game would
help him. But no matter what I think it’s quite a performance for what
Crono have done, consider how old his game is. It’s not like he’s any
kind of icon like Cloud or Sephiroth either. None of his matches have
been impressive, but I guess you shouldn’t expect characters from games
on a SNES RPG to be able to dominate other characters in this format
(Hello Kefka). Zero: Zero looked impressive if you go by the percent, but not if you looks at the opponents he have had. 32% in a poll with Crono is no joke, but come on that match had a Raiden who looked nothing like the MGS2 guy, and HK. The fact that HK advanced in Zero’s first match shows how weak his opponents where. Prediction: Hmmm... Last year Link almost got 43% against Cloud, Seph and Snake, so he has to match at least match that. As for the second place it will come down to who has the most loyal fanbase, and I think we can all agree on who has that. This match will be over in the first 30 minutes, Crono will do the same thing as Ryu did yesterday and get a quick lead, and while I expected Vincent to do something against it. Link and Zero will stop him from getting the strong dayvote that he needs. There’s no reason for Zero to go on, but he’s fighting foooooooooorrr the third place with Vincent. Vincent is mostly getting votes for his badass looks and few looks more badass than Zero. Link: 45% Crono: 20% Vincent: 17% Zero: 18% I dunno it feels odd that Crono and Zero won’t steal more than 6% more than what SFFZelda and Bidoof can do, but this is what Link has to do if he wants to beat Cloud in the finals. By the way if Link doesn’t get above 44%, then a Sephiroth and him looks about equal, and throw in that Mario will be in Link’s match to SFF each other, Sephiroth > Link is looking like a really sexy upset. To bad it wouldn’t matter, but this the important thing in tomorrow’s match isn’t who will advance with Link, instead the main focus should be on how Link can handle 3 characters who all has a big fanbase. Crew Consensus: Whew! In case you can't get through all that, Link > Vincent is the majority! |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/23/2007 7:59:21 PM | message detail |
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Ugh. Figures the guest takes a totally crappy pick that has no chance
of happening. Zero over Vincent but not Crono? Link at 45%? TuRtLe ~~~ 245/304 in the contest. Next pick: Link > ZERO BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| FinalFantasyTactics | Posted 10/23/2007 8:10:15 PM | message detail |
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Oh, how I pity thee Crono, from being Mario's greatest rival to losing to Sonic. Your fall comes soon once and for all. --- Counter Strike: Source Ownz!! |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/23/2007 8:15:59 PM | message detail |
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With any luck, he'll lose to who lost to Sonic! --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/23/2007 8:17:17 PM | message detail |
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and next year he'll lose to someone who lost to Vincent augh Ganondorf > Crono --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/23/2007 8:18:04 PM | message detail |
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anyway, Crono absolutely needs to dominate the opening vote. if he's
not up 50 votes after five minutes, I'll think Vincent has the match.
seriously. Crono/Vincent could look like Frog/Axel as far as trends go. --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/23/2007 8:18:24 PM | message detail |
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aww yeah brawl boost --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/23/2007 8:18:37 PM | message detail |
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Ganondorf > Crono I want to believe! --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Link/Vincent/Crono/Zero - Bracket: Link > Vincent - Vote: Link (263/314) |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/23/2007 8:19:26 PM | message detail |
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Knuckles > Magus > Ganondorf > Crono --- CB6 - 210/288; Oracle - 35th http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/23/2007 8:20:45 PM | message detail |
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From trannyscience Posted 10/23/2007 11:18:04 PM #391 Crono/Vincent could look like Frog/Axel as far as trends go. Except every single after school vote will go to Link, while the other three will just get the same exact amount of votes each update. =/ ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| FinalFantasyTactics | Posted 10/23/2007 8:21:55 PM | message detail |
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In theory, Crono could be fodder as soon as 5 years from now. --- Counter Strike: Source Ownz!! |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/23/2007 8:23:00 PM | message detail |
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How popular is the VC? (Unique users as opposed to total games purchased, if possible) ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| paraboxx | Posted 10/23/2007 8:24:51 PM | message detail |
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Return Of paraboxx' Worthless Writeups: Link / Vincent / Crono / Zero This match is decidedly epic, and has a very real shot of making contest history. So forgive me if I get caught up in the epicocity of it all and write more of the same damn crap you've no doubt been reading all day. Link - Some say that Link has failed to outdo expectations in this contest thus far, while Cloud has succeeded. And they're right, in a way...but I think it's just because of the stratospheric expectations we all have for Link after all the victories he's managed. Anybody else nearing 75% on three competitors at once would just seem cuckoo labanza (and if anyone can guess where I got that reference, please tell me, as maybe then I'll be able to rightfully erase it from my brain). In short, Link is still the man around here, and he'll prove it again with this match. Vincent - Now here's where the real fun starts. Vincent is kind of the reverse of Link, I believe - on the surface he's been impressive, but when you look at him closely something's fishy. On the one hand, he beat out Zelda by 10% in Round 1 and avoided getting doubled by Link in Round 2. On the other, Zelda's '06 results were almost certainly misleading...and in a poll featuring Link, Vincent just barely doubled Bidoof. In short, Vincent hasn't fared quite as well as his higher-tiered FF7 bretheren, and that may come into play here. Crono - If you really want to talk about characters faring poorly, though, one need only turn to Crono, or at least to Crono's cohorts. The decline of Chrono Trigger is in full force this year, as Frog and Magus suffered embarrassing defeats in Round 2. Some say that Chrono characters fare best with sprites, though, and after Big Boss I'll never doubt the power of the pic again. In short, things are looking bad for Crono, but not nearly bad enough to count him out. Zero - And then there's the wild card. We all know all the Zero hype has been coming from one source - but even so, it kind of makes sense if you think about it. As anticipated, SFF has been the biggest factor by far in this contest, and Crono and Vincent are just related enough to give Zero room to squeak by. Zero still may be too far out of Crono's league to make it happen, of course...but he looked pretty good last round. In short, Zero is facing an uphill battle, but he's definitely got a shot. Analysis: - So, basically, we have a clear first place winner and a three-way race for second. Been a while since we've had one of those, hasn't it? There's all sorts of logic trains you could follow in this match, so I'm just going to hitch on with the one that agrees with my gut. And my gut feeling is that Crono scrapes by with the win. Zero wasn't quite impressive enough for me to get behind him, and Vincent's already logged 45% against Crono fairly recently. Chrono Trigger may have fallen hard, but I don't think it's quite enough for this upset to work out. In short? The Noble Nine holds true. But it'll still be epic. Prediction - Link 39%, Crono 22%, Vincent 21%, Zero 18% |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/23/2007 8:25:29 PM | message detail |
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I believe its total games sold is now... ...wait for it... ...OVER NINE MILLIOOOOOOOOOOOOON!! lolololol --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/23/2007 8:30:37 PM | message detail |
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If the Noble Nine was to be broken I'm glad it was Crono who loses. I
mean his game is great, but I never understood why he was so strong.
Too bad it's someone like Vincent who is going to break it. I mean he's
just an optional character. >_> --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Match 51: Sephiroth > Mario Points: 197/288 |
