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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 529

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/23/2007 3:25:01 PM | message detail
People love that FF7 poll to give them faith in the game against so much, but as far as I'm concerned it got eclipsed and then some more than awhile back:

Poll 2458 (08/02/2006)
Is The Legend of Zelda really the best game series of all time?

53680 39.16% Yes, and the votes proved it
13750 10.03% Maybe, it depends on Twilight Princess
38693 28.23% No, Final Fantasy got robbed
10938 7.98% No, Super Mario Bros. could have beaten it
20017 14.60% No, I can think of a much better series

TOTAL VOTES: 137078

Against FF, Mario, and ANY OTHER SERIES YOU COULD THINK OF Zelda brings in at least 39% tot the fold, and bolsters up to near 50% if TP lived up to the hype like many people were hoping... if they wouldn't have already voted it over FF/SMB to begin with.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/23/2007 3:26:21 PM | message detail
You know hochi, Link was damn close to beating Cloud/Sephy combined even with Mario in the poll.

TuRtLe
~~~
245/304 in the contest. Next pick: Link > ZERO
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ZFS | Posted 10/23/2007 3:40:56 PM | message detail
I think Link is going to do some eye-opening of his own tomorrow, now that he finally doesn't have joke votes limiting his casual support.

I'm feeling a good performance from Link tomorrow, too. I could see him hitting ending up in the mid-40s.

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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/23/2007 3:44:53 PM | message detail
From BlAcK TuRtLe Posted 10/23/2007 6:26:21 PM #252
You know hochi, Link was damn close to beating Cloud/Sephy combined even with Mario in the poll.

TuRtLe


You know, Ryu H...
~~~
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/23/2007 3:59:31 PM | message detail
Link is going to disappoint tomorrow unless he gets like 60% or something. That's how high people's expectations are.

Personally, I think it will be a 40/20/20/20 split.

TuRtLe
~~~
245/304 in the contest. Next pick: Link > ZERO
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
creativename | Posted 10/23/2007 4:17:44 PM | message detail
Heroic...Squario
I'm sorry, but that certainly is not going to cause any reason to not take anything away from this round -- if anything that almost sounds like pre-match damage control. It's Link for crying out loud -- that one match with Magus summed up that particular year in 2003; it wasn't the picture that made Link underperform that significantly.

Yes, I think the overratedness for Magus in that match is overrated.


YoAriel
Seeing as how he lost to Cloud because of a picture, I have to disagree.

The stats that year predicted Cloud winning with 52% though. (I know, because that was my Oracle prediction :) - though they also predicted Cloud with 52% in the final and I still picked Seph out of favoritism)

The pic might have made a difference, but Cloud would probably have won anyway.


KH
it's just that Link doesn't have to necessarily go out and annihilate on the level of the pre-match expectations many have set for him to win this thing. The fact is that we've only seen Bible Link in that Magus match of infamy, and so it leaves room for doubt.

This is true. And yes, there is some room for doubt on NES Link.

To put it another way, I fully expect Snake to look like crap in his match in a few days. It's not the same situation, but it's always good to keep in mind.

Well yeah it's not the same, but we already know Snake is pic-sensitive.

Anybody else get the feeling that he's going to be less pic-sensitive now due to the Brawl boost though? I'm thinking he's still going to impress here even with a crap picture.

Now if Link goes out in something like a Sephiroth/Mario/Link/Vincent poll and lets Sephiroth get close to him? Yeah, I'd be calling for his head then, like everyone else would.

The craziest thing that could possibly happen is that Sephiroth edges out Link due to Mario LFF...but then Link edges out Cloud in the final anyway. And since this contest likes crazy things... :) Of course, I really have difficulty seeing Sephiroth>Link happening.

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trannyscience | Posted 10/23/2007 4:19:43 PM | message detail
Link/Mario/Zero/Sephiroth gogogo
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creativename | Posted 10/23/2007 4:20:14 PM | message detail
Draco
Yeah, Yoshi sure screwed Samus out of first place a couple matches ago.

I think he screwed Mega Man if anything. I never entirely understood why he'd hurt Samus more. Most likely though his impact wasn't one-sided.


BT
Personally, I think it will be a 40/20/20/20 split.

If this happened, that would mean LFF was hurting Vincent and Crono quite a bit, and yet Link still only managed 40%. Sephiroth would be favored over him if this happened, I think. There's just no way. Zero's going to do a lot worse than that.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/23/2007 4:22:37 PM | message detail
I think he screwed Mega Man if anything. I never entirely understood why he'd hurt Samus more.

Because most Samus fans have never seen that sprite and almost all Mega Man fans have seen his sprite.
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Keno316 | Posted 10/23/2007 4:29:19 PM | message detail
The thing about Link is just that he's just so good at resisting LFF or SFF or whatever...


Look at his closest opponents in Cloud and Sephiroth and they seemed to hurt each other during the BR. However, you leave Link alone there with Mario and Samus, his closest Nintendo peers, and he's likely to make them look like pure crap.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/23/2007 4:32:05 PM | message detail
Mega Man draws 90% of his support from the original series and the SNES X games.

Samus draws 90% of hers from Metroid Prime and Smash, and the other 10% from Super Metroid.

TuRtLe
~~~
245/304 in the contest. Next pick: Link > ZERO
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Haste_2 | Posted 10/23/2007 4:50:30 PM | message detail
Link/Mario/Zero/Sephiroth gogogo
Sephiroth could possibly win in this. I don't think Mario would be SFFed very much. LFF could be pretty severe between these two, between the two top dogs of Nintendo. On the contrary, the BR suggests the format causes Link to destroy any and all Nintendo characters.

I think he screwed Mega Man if anything. I never entirely understood why he'd hurt Samus more. Most likely though his impact wasn't one-sided.

If you raise Yoshi up a few points to get a proportion equal to Mega Man the previous round, and then raise Samus up to the same level.... Samus beats Mega Man by an amount you'd expect. The evidence more strongly suggests Samus/Yoshi LFF than (character)/Mega Man, aside from the fact that Samus and Yoshi are both Nintendo, and featured in the SSB series.

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Kaxon | Posted 10/23/2007 5:00:55 PM | message detail
Link/Mario/Zero/Sephiroth gogogo

Link - 45%, Sephiroth - 40%, Mario - 12%, Zero - 3%
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creativename | Posted 10/23/2007 5:01:39 PM | message detail
Because most Samus fans have never seen that sprite and almost all Mega Man fans have seen his sprite.

I was talking about Yoshi, not the picture.


Samus draws 90% of hers from Metroid Prime and Smash, and the other 10% from Super Metroid.

Oh please.

She draws lots of her strength from Smash and Prime, but this is ridiculous.


If you raise Yoshi up a few points to get a proportion equal to Mega Man the previous round

The non-linearity we've seen suggests that Yoshi did fine for being the 3rd strongest character I think. And yes, Yoshi/Samus are in the same game, but for instance Mega Man got SFFed by Link (though maybe the pic played a role). I think maybe Mega Man has more of an SFF weakness to Nintendo.
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trannyscience | Posted 10/23/2007 5:02:54 PM | message detail
Samus was Noble Nine worthy before Prime even came out. :)
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greatone10 | Posted 10/23/2007 5:04:05 PM | message detail
Samus beat Sonic before MP even came out.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/23/2007 5:04:29 PM | message detail
90% is ridiculous, but I'm guessing she'd be significantly, significantly weaker without Smash Bros. and Prime. She might struggle with Donkey Kong.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/23/2007 5:05:40 PM | message detail
Hmmm... looks like I'm still being a bit extreme, but it's hard to imagine doing well in relation to other Nintendo characters with just a few old games that are so far down the Nintendo SFF ladder.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/23/2007 5:27:00 PM | message detail
Link- 40%, Sephiroth 35%, Zero 12.6%, Mario 12.4%

TuRtLe
~~~
245/304 in the contest. Next pick: Link > ZERO
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/23/2007 5:35:16 PM | message detail
The only argument someone could make is over Smash Bros... we saw Samus before and after MP, and she was kicking ass both times. Why wouldn't Samus get a lot of strength from her early 2D games, it's where MM gets his strength from, and it's not like any of those games sold extraordinarily well or they're extremely popular here.

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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/23/2007 5:42:23 PM | message detail
Well, Mega Man is a face of the industry, and he had a TON of games. Not counting Smash Bros., Samus had three games until late 2002. The Prime series has propelled her from being likely the weakest Noble 9er (she needed one hell of a good rally, if not outright cheating, to beat Sonic in 2002) to firmly in the middle of the pack. Without Smash, it stands to reason that she'd be nowhere near the Noble 9, and I think she'd look way worse in SFF matches.
trannyscience | Posted 10/23/2007 5:43:24 PM | message detail
and Link is a lot weaker without the 3d Zelda games. I don't really see the point here.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
trannyscience | Posted 10/23/2007 5:44:04 PM | message detail
oh, and Samus has always been a "face of the industry", irregardless of how many games she has/had. she's no Sonic of course, but probably comparable to Mega Man.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/23/2007 5:46:25 PM | message detail
yeah i dont really get it either. take away SM64 and is Mario as strong as he is? The only N9 characters where you can take away their 3d games and they'd probably still be N9 material is Sonic and MM.

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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/23/2007 5:47:29 PM | message detail
She is? I always figured Mega Man was miles ahead of her in the early stages of their gaming careers (in terms of exposure and recognition, anyway). His games sold way more collectively, and he had the show and stuff.
FFDragon | Posted 10/23/2007 5:48:47 PM | message detail
I can't wait to see if we get to lol at BT all day tomorrow or congratulate him on a great upset pick. Should be fun either way.
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Seginustemple | Posted 10/23/2007 5:49:08 PM | message detail
The only N9 characters where you can take away their 3d games and they'd probably still be N9 material is Sonic and MM.

Cloud still top tier IMO
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trannyscience | Posted 10/23/2007 5:50:17 PM | message detail
either he gloats all day or everyone else gloats at his expense all day - it's lose-lose.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
Lugia2 | Posted 10/23/2007 5:50:45 PM | message detail
Considering that CT used to be so big- and still is, until Crono loses to a non-N9er- I can see Samus having 1994 as a big base.

After all, Earthbound is also a series that gets relatively little love (compared to most N9ers) and is in Smash. But Samus's main game didn't bomb in America >_>...
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/23/2007 5:51:43 PM | message detail
Samus and Mega Man were both pretty absent from my gaming childhood, the only 2D experience I actually had with them around the time they were released was MM2, and I always used to watch the MM cartoon. I still knew of the existence of Samus somehow, though I'm not really sure how. Still, I don't think I'm that good of an indicator for stuff like that (Final Fantasy what?). I'd say MM > Samus without SSB, but she's still damn strong either way.

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HaRRicH | Posted 10/23/2007 5:51:46 PM | message detail
Until last generation, there was no way Samus was as big of a gaming face as Mega Man. Now...it's probably the case. Mega Man's not done anything important in too long while the Metroid Prime series are very well received. This wouldn't even be in question if Metroid would have had a N64 game -- that's a HUGE generation to miss out on, even if Samus was in SSB.

It's really a shame how long ago Mega's prime was though.....
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/23/2007 5:52:46 PM | message detail
I'm fully prepared to brag at full force if I'm right.

I'm also prepared to leave the stats topic as promised if I'm not

TuRtLe
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245/304 in the contest. Next pick: Link > ZERO
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
HaRRicH | Posted 10/23/2007 5:53:06 PM | message detail
I'm not talking about contest-strength, by the way.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/23/2007 5:54:42 PM | message detail
Mega Man could still make for a totally badass current-gen game. I've pretty much given up on Sonic, but if Capcom ever decides to rehaul the series like it did with RE, they could have 3 absolutely killer series going strong.

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GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/23/2007 5:55:27 PM | message detail
out-of-nowhere four-pack

Ryu vs. Sora vs. Ken Masters vs. Riku

Who takes 1st and who takes 3rd?
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/23/2007 5:56:01 PM | message detail
From PortugalTheMann Posted 10/23/2007 8:54:42 PM #284
Mega Man could still make for a totally badass current-gen game.

just so you know it shipped today and is out tomorrow might wanna go check it out goty and all that
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Lugia2 | Posted 10/23/2007 5:56:42 PM | message detail
To be frank, I only got a SNES in 1994 and didn't get into gaming until the N64. I knew nothing of much outside of Mario, Kirby, and Mega Man. CT completely passed me by. I refused to play Zelda for some reason. I never heard of Metroid until SSB...

Now that I think about it...HOW DID CT BECOME SO BIG? Why is Metroid still so large that she was somewhat close to SEPHIROTH pre-Metroid Prime? Magus in 2003 may not be legit anymore but it was THEN...

Does anyone bother to ask these questions?
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ZFS | Posted 10/23/2007 5:57:04 PM | message detail
mega man does not do goty

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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/23/2007 5:57:23 PM | message detail
Ryu > Sora > Riku > Ken

I have a feeling Riku would do a better job resisting SFF.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/23/2007 5:57:24 PM | message detail
Ryu > Sora

TuRtLe
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245/304 in the contest. Next pick: Link > ZERO
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Who Cares? | Posted 10/23/2007 5:58:01 PM | message detail
Ryu > Sora > Riku > Ken
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/23/2007 5:58:55 PM | message detail
I've always said Mega Man needs a Metroid Prime-like FPS game to revive the series.

TuRtLe
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245/304 in the contest. Next pick: Link > ZERO
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/23/2007 5:59:11 PM | message detail
CT is a combination of illegal activities and word of mouth.

Like a Phoenix Wright that people don't just laugh and say "lol text adventures" to. <_<
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/23/2007 6:00:58 PM | message detail
Sora > Ryu > Ken > Riku

Ryu/Ken split favoring Ryu, Sora SFF's Riku. imho
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wavedash101 | Posted 10/23/2007 6:04:57 PM | message detail
MM will never get the budget to make a big epic 3-d prime type game...just like CV except CV has a reason to never get 3-d games since all the previous ones sucked

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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/23/2007 6:07:50 PM | message detail
Who thought they'd do what they did with RE4? Sure it's not likely, but it's plenty possible.

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red sox 777 | Posted 10/23/2007 6:08:27 PM | message detail
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/23/2007 6:08:58 PM | message detail
link with 2% confirmed
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Keno316 | Posted 10/23/2007 6:09:07 PM | message detail
Pic Advantage: Anyone not named Link...
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/23/2007 6:09:37 PM | message detail
oh and uh crono > vincent maybe confirmed (which makes no sense at all)
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