GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 529
| Kaxon | Posted 10/23/2007 1:14:21 PM | message detail |
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He's going to finish a percentage point or two higher than the
average prediction, but so will Mario. Aside from Fox sucking more than
anyone predicted, this is as expected as can be. The average prediction today for Sephiroth was 40.18%... he's doing a lot better than that. --- I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/23/2007 1:19:07 PM | message detail |
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Well then, the average predictor for today wasn't all that bright.
Comparing this to how they're expected to do one-on-one makes this a
much more expected result. --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/23/2007 1:21:22 PM | message detail |
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The consensus for Seph is 40.18% ?? 0__o ... What's the consensus for the other three? --- Oracle Prediction: ~ Selphie Goth 43.69% - Murphy 34.31% - Foxy Cleopatra 11.26% - Big **** 10.74% ~ Status: OK |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/23/2007 1:22:59 PM | message detail |
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I heard someone talking about Gilgamesh. --- CB6 - 210/288; Oracle - 35th http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/23/2007 1:24:00 PM | message detail |
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Gilgamesh vs. Cecil who do you pick? gogogogo --- Oracle Prediction: ~ Selphie Goth 43.69% - Murphy 34.31% - Foxy Cleopatra 11.26% - Big **** 10.74% ~ Status: OK |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/23/2007 1:24:28 PM | message detail |
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Gilgamesh --- CB6 - 210/288; Oracle - 35th http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/23/2007 1:25:16 PM | message detail |
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Woops, guess I was way off. Most of the predictions I had seen had him from 43-45. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Keno316 | Posted 10/23/2007 1:30:03 PM | message detail |
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Gilgamesh would probably do horrible here. Most of his popularity comes from FF5 and that game would just do abysmal. His other appearances are "sidequest in FF12" (hello Vaan level) and random summon in FF8 which I'm willing to bet a lot of people missed in the first place. ...Well, he might actually do better than Vaan since he's at least likeable. And has a kickass theme. But otherwise...he's probably stink up the place. On another note. We keep saying FF8's strength is really "just Squall" but we haven't really seen anyone else from that game perform, have we? I'm certainly curious what some other characters like Seifer or Irvine could possible pull... --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/23/2007 1:31:16 PM | message detail |
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"probably" being the key word there. He might do decently, and damned
if I'm not going to keep rallying for him until he finally gets into
one of these contests. --- CB6 - 210/288; Oracle - 35th http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg |
| Kaxon | Posted 10/23/2007 1:35:00 PM | message detail |
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Well then, the average predictor for today wasn't all that bright.
Comparing this to how they're expected to do one-on-one makes this a
much more expected result. Mostly it's that people weren't expecting Fox and BB to do so terribly (especially Fox)... although people did have Mario doing better relative to Sephiroth. The consensus was Seph - 40.18, Mario - 33.87, BB - 13.62, Fox - 12.46 --- I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/23/2007 1:37:32 PM | message detail |
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Gilgamesh really has no legitimate chance of doing well. I mean.. what's his ceiling? Ultros? --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| Kaxon | Posted 10/23/2007 1:38:43 PM | message detail |
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Gilgamesh would be as strong as Butz and Vaan combined. Awwwww yeah --- I made a living on time trial blowing myself off to cross the finish line at ludicrous speed. -transience |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 10/23/2007 1:39:51 PM | message detail |
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Gilgamesh would be fodder but he still deserves a shot in. Bahamut could do decently on the other hand --- Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/23/2007 1:40:03 PM | message detail |
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I'd be willing to accept 10% in a match with Rikku, Yoshi and Knuckles! --- CB6 - 210/288; Oracle - 35th http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg |
| Keno316 | Posted 10/23/2007 1:41:20 PM | message detail |
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Gil would probably do better than the whole FF5 cast combined... --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/23/2007 1:43:16 PM | message detail |
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Gilgamesh Bartz ExDeath Galuf Mmm...best 4-pack ever. --- CB6 - 210/288; Oracle - 35th http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/23/2007 1:44:30 PM | message detail |
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Balthier vs. Chocobo who do you pick? gogogogo --- Oracle Prediction: ~ Selphie Goth 43.69% - Murphy 34.31% - Foxy Cleopatra 11.26% - Big **** 10.74% ~ Status: OK |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/23/2007 1:51:05 PM | message detail |
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Biiiiiiiiig matches coming up. These next 2 days will make or break my
bracket (knowing what Ganondorf gets for his picture makes break more
likely). TuRtLe ~~~ 221/272 in the contest. Next pick: Cloud > Bowser (lol) BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| ZFS | Posted 10/23/2007 2:34:46 PM | message detail |
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If Balthier lost to a Chocobo... --- "Ha! No spoony bard could spin a sweeter tale!" |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/23/2007 2:35:55 PM | message detail |
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Man, I can't wait to do my writeup for this match. It's going to be longwinded and awesome. TuRtLe ~~~ 245/304 in the contest. Next pick: Link > ZERO BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| armitage999 | Posted 10/23/2007 2:39:05 PM | message detail |
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Where did all this newfound Cloud/Sephiroth power come from? They
haven't really had anything new since the last contest, but there
probably isn't much of a way that they're going to lose in this
contest. I don't think I've seen them this strong. --- Insert sig here |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/23/2007 2:39:50 PM | message detail |
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newfound? the only thing that's new is that you're seeing them take on regular characters for the first time since 2004. --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| armitage999 | Posted 10/23/2007 2:43:22 PM | message detail |
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I figured they'd decrease slightly over the years, but this year
Sephiroth is making Mario look like fodder if they'd have to go one on
one. --- Insert sig here |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/23/2007 2:45:13 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1363 --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| satai_delenn | Posted 10/23/2007 2:46:02 PM | message detail |
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At least Gilgamesh would be a better joke entrant than Bidoof. >_> --- My Contest Hero: Riku Currently playing: Aria of Sorrow, Silent Hill 2, Super Mario RPG |
| wavedash101 | Posted 10/23/2007 2:47:15 PM | message detail |
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Gilgamesh is no joke...damn you satai *shakes fist* --- Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude! Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash! [no u cru] |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/23/2007 2:47:29 PM | message detail |
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My math may be off here, but doesn't this current performance translate
into a very similar percentage from the Seph/Mario 2005 match? --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| ZFS | Posted 10/23/2007 2:47:35 PM | message detail |
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If they can hold up this well over a decade after the original release,
you have to figure that speaks highly of the staying power of FF7. I'm
surprised they look stronger
than last year without a whole lot of reason to, but them being strong
should be expected. No reason to expect to see them dropping, at the
least. --- "Ha! No spoony bard could spin a sweeter tale!" |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/23/2007 2:51:52 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, that's the one thing that makes me most skeptical of Cloud and
Sephiroth's 'power' that I've seen so far. We haven't seen them take on
normal competition since 2004 (well, Sephy had the Villains, but really
now), and even that was a SFF-fest of epic proportions for most of
their matches. Which leaves 2003... four years ago. Even considering
the format, which I find hard to trust anyway, you've got very little
to go on and make assessments with even from that perspective. Meanwhile, Link has been bidOOF'd twice before to screw up how dominant he could look and looks to be pegged with his LoZ sprite tomorrow. I'm not even going to take this round seriously for evaluating his favorite status unless he gets something stupid low (talking the 30s here). It's next round that he'll be able to test his unfettered mettle - and Cloud will have some actual Noble competition as well that will see if he can keep his pace up in the face of TRUELY elite opponents. --- Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package. |
| ZFS | Posted 10/23/2007 2:53:57 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/23/2007 2:54:46 PM | message detail |
| Last year Vincent and Squall solidified their
position as potential NN breakers. The only reason Cloud/Sephiroth
looked like crap was because they were up against Link less than a week
before his incredibly hyped game came out. Seems to me that Mario/Sephiroth are doing as expected in relation to eachother, counting Fox's leeching hurting Mario a tad. It's just that BB and Fox are doing way worse than most expected. TuRtLe ~~~ 245/304 in the contest. Next pick: Link > ZERO BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| ZFS | Posted 10/23/2007 2:56:39 PM | message detail |
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I think some people are making far too big a deal out of the possible
Bible Link picture. I'm sorry, but that certainly is not going to cause
any reason to not take anything away from this round -- if anything
that almost sounds like pre-match damage control. It's Link
for crying out loud -- that one match with Magus summed up that
particular year in 2003; it wasn't the picture that made Link
underperform that significantly. Samus certainly comes away looking far worse and she still handily beat Mega Man. I'm not putting much stock in to the pic factor when time and again it's proven to be that big of a deal. --- "Ha! No spoony bard could spin a sweeter tale!" |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/23/2007 2:59:02 PM | message detail |
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Seeing as how he lost to Cloud because of a picture, I have to disagree. OoT Link = undefeated in contest action. Our savior! --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/23/2007 3:01:49 PM | message detail |
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Didn't he get his OoT pic for the Solano match? Or was that his Smash sprite? TuRtLe ~~~ 245/304 in the contest. Next pick: Link > ZERO BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/23/2007 3:02:43 PM | message detail |
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It's not pre-match damage control, it's just that Link doesn't have to
necessarily go out and annihilate on the level of the pre-match
expectations many have set for him to win this thing. The fact is that
we've only seen Bible Link in that Magus match of infamy, and so it
leaves room for doubt. To put it another way, I fully expect Snake to
look like crap in his match in a few days. It's not the same situation,
but it's always good to keep in mind. Now if Link goes out in something like a Sephiroth/Mario/Link/Vincent poll and lets Sephiroth get close to him? Yeah, I'd be calling for his head then, like everyone else would. --- Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package. |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/23/2007 3:04:52 PM | message detail |
| I can get behind KH's line of thinking, but I
don't think Bible Link is going to hurt him very much. I mean, it *is*
Link. Wheelchair Cloud wouldn't hold Cloud back much, either! --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| armitage999 | Posted 10/23/2007 3:06:33 PM | message detail |
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Unless Link does well tomorrow, I'm having my doubts that Link will
outdo Sephiroth in the next round. I used to think that Cloud would be
the only one that could compete with Link, and this year I think Cloud
is going to win, but now Sephiroth has a shot at beating Link. It's true that Cloud and Sephiroth haven't really taken on normal competition for the most part, the closest is probably Mario and he's not overwhelmingly popular on GameFAQs to begin with. --- Insert sig here |
| ZFS | Posted 10/23/2007 3:11:14 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/23/2007 3:11:29 PM | message detail |
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well, to each their own... but I think your expectations are a mile and a half off. --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/23/2007 3:12:04 PM | message detail |
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You never know. People have been calling foul on that 2k3 match
forEVER, and if something as little as WW Link can make such a
significant difference (though I've never quite been sure how much
people thought Link should have won by in 2k3 - the idea that he
boosted from TP hype/trailers in 2k4 implies that it would be minimal
at best), you've got to think his most unflattering sprite at least has
potential for a slight underperformance. Again, not trying to make excuses ahead of time. If Link underperforms significantly, that's somewhat indicative of his strength. It makes NO sense and shouldn't happen at all, but that's how it is. --- Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package. |
| ZFS | Posted 10/23/2007 3:13:09 PM | message detail |
| Well, I don't think Link has to necessarily hit
the expectations that are laid out for him (most people have him at
something like 45%, I think, or think he needs to hit that to be good),
but I hardly think that nothing can be taken away from this. This
situation isn't too different than the Battle Royale last year --
there's two Square characters and one "independent" character. If Link
looks merely decent here, that doesn't mean he loses, but it would
certainly be just one more reason to believe that Cloud has a very real
shot. Given that Cloud has impressed not once but three times this contest, it's certainly on Link's shoulders to come out and show he can whip legit competition pretty good. I'm not sure what he needs to hit for me to think he's a "lock," but if he does underperform, I think it would be a mistake to point to something like the picture or it being a "hyped match" as the reason he did. To me, that's trying to cover up a bad performance with a what are very likely meaningless factors. The winner of these contests has never given a reason to doubt their doing so. Cloud has answered the call every time he's been in a match. Link's gotta do the same, I think. --- "Ha! No spoony bard could spin a sweeter tale!" |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/23/2007 3:15:22 PM | message detail |
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Once again, Mario is doing exactly as expected given Fox being in the
poll. Cloud has been somewhat impressive, but I think that's more
people looking for the upset than anything else. Link really hasn't had
the best competition to gauge his strength with, with Bidoof and Zelda,
and now getting Bible Link (which let Magus get 35% on him in 2003).
For me to even consider Cloud, he has to really come out to play next
round against his first group of legitimate opponents. TuRtLe ~~~ 245/304 in the contest. Next pick: Link > ZERO BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/23/2007 3:16:32 PM | message detail |
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Samus Samus Samus Samus Samus --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| ZFS | Posted 10/23/2007 3:18:11 PM | message detail |
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female bracket does not count --- "Ha! No spoony bard could spin a sweeter tale!" |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/23/2007 3:18:53 PM | message detail |
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Yup we're gonna have to retcon 2k6 to being the year Snake won to make the logic stick --- Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package. |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/23/2007 3:18:57 PM | message detail |
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uhhh Sephiroth then --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| ZFS | Posted 10/23/2007 3:19:28 PM | message detail |
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villains contest remember the lavos --- "Ha! No spoony bard could spin a sweeter tale!" |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 10/23/2007 3:20:26 PM | message detail |
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Well, if you didn't think FF7 was going to impress in this format, then you weren't thinking very hard. I mean, consider Is Final Fantasy VII really the Best. Game. Ever? Yes, the tournament is correct 28.09% 25275 Not quite, but it's in the Top 10 38.56% 34693 It's good, but not nearly that good 16.35% 14711 It's all hype for an average game 10.54% 9481 Not at all, it's just terrible 6.47% 5821 TOTAL VOTES 89981 Yes, that was back in 2004, and the numbers have probably come down a little now, but that's still one heck of a harcore voting block to have to contend with. Yeah, they won't be pushovers, but I think Link is going to do some eye-opening of his own tomorrow, now that he finally doesn't have joke votes limiting his casual support. --- The 2007 Guru Rankings! thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 10/23/2007 3:21:30 PM | message detail |
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If Link can't hit 45% tomorrow then he loses to Seph in the round after IF Crono advances. Mario IS going to drain Link --- Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest |
| Draco1214 | Posted 10/23/2007 3:24:50 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, Yoshi sure screwed Samus out of first place a couple matches ago. --- Currently Playing: Fire Emblem Path of Raidance (replay), Wild Arms 3, Persona 3 |
