GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 528
| BDawg | Posted 10/22/2007 11:47:09 AM | message detail |
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I'm totally fine with Cloud impressing, it makes the Link victory that
much sweeter. But damn Auron I know this was expected but it's
disappointing all the same. --- Should I start running now? |
| MnMZero | Posted 10/22/2007 11:48:48 AM | message detail |
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Kaxon is correct, Zero really doesn't have much of a shot here. He might have a remote shot at 3rd due to some funkiness, but 2nd? Not really. Don't be too surprised to see him struggle to get 15%. He still has a slight chance. It all depends on how dedicated that core Mega Man/Zero fanbase is. If Link dominates the votes, and there's a core Zero fanbase that won't budge, he still has a slight shot. It's not like Zero is weak or anything. His fanbase is large enough that he could potentially draw a small core voter base that can get him 15-18%. Yeah we've seen Mega Man get SFF'd by Link and Zero succumb to the Mario Bros., but we don't know how large the group of dedicated voters that DID vote for Mega Man/Zero is in those instances. If Link draws close to 50% as Cloud is today, then that's 50% of the vote left for Vincent/Crono/Zero. With that little of the vote, anything is fair game. Zero most likely won't take advantage of that, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if he pulled it off. --- Proud Supporter of Zero |
| transience | Posted 10/22/2007 11:53:06 AM | message detail |
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I'm with mnm on that one. --- xyzzy |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/22/2007 11:55:57 AM | message detail |
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I'm not... I mean I guess it's possible,
but I'd give it less than a 5% chance of happening. Vincent and Crono
are just too much for Zero to handle, and I don't think they share
anywhere near enough of a fanbase to let Zero advance, even if Link
wasn't in the poll. --- Explicit Content. I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/22/2007 12:15:37 PM | message detail |
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Come now, I think you're forgetting how close Zero was to Crono last round. Zero doesn't need much LFF to win. --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/22/2007 12:21:47 PM | message detail |
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Did Ryu even drop with the morning vote? --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg |
| ZFS | Posted 10/22/2007 12:22:09 PM | message detail |
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I don't even consider Zero to be a contender to advance in that one.
He's just not up to Crono and Vincent's level, and Link is certainly
not going to get anywhere close to something like 50% in that match. --- "Ha! No spoony bard could spin a sweeter tale!" |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/22/2007 12:23:19 PM | message detail |
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Come now, I think you're forgetting how close Zero was to Crono last round. Zero doesn't need much LFF to win. Crono's coming in 3rd, not 2nd. --- Explicit Content. I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken |
| BDawg | Posted 10/22/2007 12:57:44 PM | message detail |
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Zero didn't look elite against the Jak-pack, so as far as I'm concerned
his position against Crono just makes things look better for Vincent. --- Should I start running now? |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 10/22/2007 1:35:53 PM | message detail |
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Crono and Vincent have seperate fanbases. Screw the "Square LFF" thoery. It ain't happening. Also, Link COULD SFF Zero. --- Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 10/22/2007 1:36:09 PM | message detail |
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Also looks like Cloud will fall short of 50%. Damnit --- Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest |
| SPFactor | Posted 10/22/2007 1:36:35 PM | message detail |
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master hochi says cloud>link it must be true trust him we will not be disappointed in 2 weeks when link drops 60% on him |
| smitelf | Posted 10/22/2007 2:03:05 PM | message detail |
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I don't think Zero has a great chance of getting second, but he
definitely has a chance. We've seen weirder things happen. I think it
would depend on Crono > Vincent, though...if Vincent > Crono, as
seems likely at this point, Zero's probably too far behind to nab
second. His chance of getting third is extremely good, though. Link: 43% Vincent: 20% Crono: 21% Zero: 16% Link looks a little low to me there. Look at how Cloud is doing - if Link doesn't manage > 44% at minimum, I'm going to really start doubting him. I'd really have to see Link at 45% to be comfortable with his result. And Crono is too high. I don't think Crono would get 21% even without LFF. --- Official Queen ***** of the Universe! Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21 |
| smitelf | Posted 10/22/2007 2:05:53 PM | message detail |
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lol, I just realized that those percentages came from hochi, never mind then :) --- Official Queen ***** of the Universe! Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/22/2007 2:15:21 PM | message detail |
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Go Zero bandwagon! It's gone from "lol BT" to "outside chance" TuRtLe ~~~ 221/272 in the contest. Next pick: Cloud > Bowser (lol) BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| MnMZero | Posted 10/22/2007 2:16:27 PM | message detail |
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pfft bandwagon, I'm the original Zero mark around these parts fool --- Proud Supporter of Zero |
| MnMZero | Posted 10/22/2007 2:21:55 PM | message detail |
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And I like how everyone is talking about Zero's direct strength relation to Crono and Vincent when we've already seen multiple
times in this contest where results are nowhere near what individual
strengths would indicate. Zero doesn't have to be "up to Vincent and
Crono's level" if Link is in the poll pushing everyone down.
Not saying that it's likely to happen, but it's certainly a
possibility. It just matters on how much of Zero's voter base can he
hold on to after everyone gets beat down by Link. --- Proud Supporter of Zero |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/22/2007 2:22:58 PM | message detail |
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Considering Zero has the biggest reason to get pushed down to Link
relative to the other characters in the poll from what we've seen
before, I don't know how good of an argument that is. --- Explicit Content. I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken |
| Haste_2 | Posted 10/22/2007 2:25:55 PM | message detail |
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Yoshi supposedly resisted SFF against Mega Man in a 4-way poll,
suggesting Mega Man might avoid the same against Link. I think the
chances are greater that Zero resists SFF in this format... besides
that, Zero isn't the iconic Mega Man and Zero appeared to resist the
SFF against Mario. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| Haste_2 | Posted 10/22/2007 2:41:02 PM | message detail |
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Thanks, creative. It appears my download with Open Office was successful a couple weeks back... I thought I didn't have the space, and that it failed. But, I downloaded that xls file and it opened right up for me to work with. Now, I'll just have to experiment... what is this "solver"? --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 10/22/2007 3:17:37 PM | message detail |
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In OO.o Calc, you can find Solver under Tools -> Solver. --- Mustache...and green... www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| therealmnm | Posted 10/22/2007 3:18:09 PM | message detail |
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Considering Zero has the biggest reason to get pushed down to Link
relative to the other characters in the poll from what we've seen
before, I don't know how good of an argument that is. You're looking at it wrong. EVERYONE is going to get pushed down due to Link regardless of who they are. I know you're bringing up Zero getting SFF'd by Link, but what of the votes that Zero gets AFTER being SFF'd? Link/Zero SFF has nothing to do with that. Let's use an extreme example and say that Link triples Zero in a direct matchup. lol Zero yada yada. But we still don't know what that 25% that he got consists of. There could be an extremely dedicated voter base that could get Zero out of a four-way matchup with Link in the poll. Zero's core fanbase simply hasn't been tested to that limit yet. I mean, look at Yoshi. We saw him get trashed by Mega Man one-on-one, yet he thrives in multi-polls (19% with Mega Man AND Samus beating him down isn't THAT bad <_<;). We don't know how much of a favorite Zero would be in a similar situation. Basically Zero could come out of that match looking like Ryu with a steadfast, dedicated fanbase, or he could end up looking like Shadow and straight up folding. His second round match seems to indicate that he is closer to Ryu than to Shadow in that regard. Someone brought up Zero not looking so hot in the first round, but all that means is that Zero doesn't have as much blowout power anymore, and his peak strength has probably dropped. It says nothing about his core base. And note, I still don't think Zero has much of a chance. I'm just saying I wouldn't be surprised if he did make a match out of it. I don't think that the Link SFF will play as big a role as I thought it would after seeing some other matches. Link doesn't take everything away from Zero in the same way as Link/Zelda and Mario/Pac-Man. I think he just SFFs Zero down from his peak strength. The dedication of what remains is still up in the air. --- Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/22/2007 3:24:57 PM | message detail |
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Looking at the last match, Yoshi ended with 38.60% of the Megaman/Yoshi
votes, a good deal better than his 2005 performance, and a little worse
than his 42.81% in round 2. Interesting enough, Yoshi got 19.13%
against MM/Samus/Scorpion, which is better than the 18.26% he got on
Link alone back in 2004! --- Character Battle VI -- Points: 179/256 -- T-474 (42 way) Bracket: Samus > Megaman -- Vote: Megaman |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/22/2007 3:41:46 PM | message detail |
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I don't think I'm looking at it wrong at all... Vincent and Crono have
just as good of a chance as having that hardcore fanbase that will
stick by them as Zero does. The point is Zero is going to be starting
so far behind them, even if his fanbase is more loyal than Vincent and
Crono's there's still a very good chance he doesn't place in 2nd. --- Explicit Content. I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken |
| creativename | Posted 10/22/2007 4:00:52 PM | message detail |
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Haste2 what is this "solver"? Solver is an optimization thing, where you can minimize/maximize a certain cell value by changing other cell values. I use it to minimize the sum of squared difference between the actual match results, and the strength inputs for Morgoth's sheet. This gives the x-stat for each character based on a match result. I actually couldn't find Solver in my OO Calc, but I use Excel. therealmnm EVERYONE is going to get pushed down due to Link regardless of who they are. From what we've seen so far, the weakest character usually seems to get pushed down worse in non-linear fashion. King Morgoth's non-linear x-stat model is the best anyone has come up with, but this particular aspect of the non-linearity doesn't seem to be handled very well. Matches are usually more top-heavy than his model estimates. In other words, could be bad news for Zero in the next match. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/22/2007 4:16:56 PM | message detail |
| Oh yeah, that reminds me. On the Cloud/Link discussion, Snake was beaten much worse than expected in his final match against those two. At the time, we put it down to him being 3rd in a 3-way match pushing him down, but perhaps Cloud and Link were simply that much stronger than usual due to TP and Wii coming out in days/AC and KH2. |
| Haste_2 | Posted 10/22/2007 4:38:07 PM | message detail |
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Thanks, RPGuy. With that, and if I figure it out, I'll repost my PRECISE stats soon enough... =p Soon after this contest started I figured the BR numbers were bologna... though I guess it's still not for sure. From what we've seen so far, the weakest character usually seems to get pushed down worse in non-linear fashion. Only sometimes. I see no pattern or consistancies mathematically to tell when they'll actually happen. I can see one sorta logical reason for Zero to underperform besides being SFFed by Link: Zero only faced Crono as a real strong contender last round. Now replace two high fodders with Link and Vincent. Likewise, compare the situation with Marcus, who's underperforming today... Marcus faced Cloud and two low-carders last round, and now he's facing Cloud and two near-elites. There was kind of a similar situation with Scorpion, too. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/22/2007 4:44:02 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-51.jpg And there's our Big **** picture. :( |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/22/2007 4:44:48 PM | message detail |
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looks like Solid Snake to me~ --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/22/2007 4:45:27 PM | message detail |
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I like the Donkey Kong background for Mario. --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/22/2007 4:45:41 PM | message detail |
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BB for last place- ... Fox for last place? --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg |
| Gaddswell | Posted 10/22/2007 4:46:23 PM | message detail |
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Haha, Solid **** #1! Can't wait for Solid **** #2 vs L-Block! --- Finally a damn bracket! http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y69/unown_pnoi/brawlhypeclubheader.jpg |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/22/2007 4:47:22 PM | message detail |
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BB or Fox for last place... I don't know anymore --- Oracle Prediction: ~ Baby Eater 45.21% - Ryu 22.29% - Alcoholic 21.91% - Marcus 10.59% ~ Status: Meh |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/22/2007 4:48:25 PM | message detail |
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Wow, that might be the worst picture we've ever seen any contest entrant receive. Also, it's now a practical guarantee that Ganon will get his awful LoZ sprite. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/22/2007 4:49:34 PM | message detail |
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Ganon and Leon should be the main concerns right now. not that I think it matters much -- remember when Samus was going to bomb and Auron was going to win? -- but eh. --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/22/2007 4:52:16 PM | message detail |
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Umm.... Pikachu FTW! KB |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/22/2007 4:53:04 PM | message detail |
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*looks at match pic* ... what --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Cloud/Marcus/Auron/Ryu - Bracket: Cloud > Ryu - Vote: Auron (231/272) |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/22/2007 4:56:56 PM | message detail |
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not that I think it matters much -- remember when Samus was going to bomb and Auron was going to win? -- but eh. Samus was recognizable and Ryu doesn't look bad. This is awesome news for my MC > Yuna pick... go home pigboy! --- Explicit Content. I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/22/2007 4:59:04 PM | message detail |
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Luigi has a waaaaay better chance of getting 2nd than Yuna. --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg |
| Janus5000 | Posted 10/22/2007 5:00:06 PM | message detail |
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augh another snake picture Mario is so screwed --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin |
| creativename | Posted 10/22/2007 5:00:22 PM | message detail |
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I literally bust out laughing when I saw that :) Wow, that might be the worst picture we've ever seen any contest entrant receive. Could well be. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/22/2007 5:02:07 PM | message detail |
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Too bad Snake doesnt have any competition other than L-block. I would love to see him get put out here. Anyway, lets play pretend. Lblock > Snake just happened. KB |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/22/2007 5:05:24 PM | message detail |
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Luigi has a waaaaay better chance of getting 2nd than Yuna. Sure he does. --- Explicit Content. I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken |
| Janus5000 | Posted 10/22/2007 5:10:45 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, if Luigi could rSFF Ganon enough to take second, he would've done
so last round, unless you think Mudkip hurts Luigi a good deal more
than Ganon (which isn't impossible, but I wouldn't count on it). --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin |
| Keno316 | Posted 10/22/2007 5:11:18 PM | message detail |
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Wow...that pic is HORRIBLE! Too bad the 1st and 2nd place are so clear cut already...Could have been interesting otherwise... --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| smitelf | Posted 10/22/2007 5:11:49 PM | message detail |
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*looks at pic* Eh, I don't think it'll matter too much for Big Boss. He'll probably still get 3rd, if only because Fox will be LFFed to death. I'd forgotten how much cooler Sephiroth's sprite was compared to Cloud's :) --- Official Queen ***** of the Universe! Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21 |
| greatone10 | Posted 10/22/2007 5:13:36 PM | message detail |
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*looks at next match pic* If Seph and Jumpman don't account for 85% of the votes tomorrow, I will be utterly shocked. If he needed SNES Fox so bad, he could have used what is in the background. And I am utterly mortified to see Naked Turd after that Snake/Frog debacle. Good thing Boss wasn't going to advance anyway. --- Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest. This line waiting for Guru results, because not enough people have played the Mario RPGs. |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/22/2007 5:14:30 PM | message detail |
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That wasn't only in regards to Luigi either... I wouldn't say Ganon has
a waaaaaaaaaaaay better shot at 2nd than Yuna. I think you'd have to be
pretty naive to think that. No problem with people calling him the
favorite, but I still say Yuna has a very good chance. --- Explicit Content. I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/22/2007 5:16:14 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, if Luigi could rSFF Ganon enough to take second, he would've
done so last round, unless you think Mudkip hurts Luigi a good deal
more than Ganon (which isn't impossible, but I wouldn't count on it). Luigi finished within 3% of Ganondorf, so I doubt Mudkip needed to have hurt him a "great deal" more. If he was handicapping Luigi only slightly more, I'd say the plumber has a very realistic chance, especially when coupled with the probable picture advantage he'll end up with. Throwing Chief and Yuna in the mix also throws everything on its ear, so we really don't know what will happen. I think creative said Ganon/Luigi/Yuna can finish in any order, and I agree. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/22/2007 5:23:50 PM | message detail |
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You know what's scary about Big Boss's picture? Solid **** has been
seen in matches against Yoshi, Bowser, Frog, Ryu, Aeris, and Fire
Emblem yet has still managed to beat them; though it was only as a
background to Aeris and had a normal faded headshot behind him against
Ryu and Yoshi, it is certainly not a good thing to be associated with.
One could argue that Solid **** underperformed against all of them
except Ryu, too... ...then factor in how Big Boss is NOT Solid Snake. Factor in how much Big Boss jumped from just his artwork to him in MGS3. Factor in that Big Boss cannot beat any of his opponents without a shot from MGS3 (and would only beat Fox with one, maybe). Imagine how much his MG sprite will hurt him... ...Big Boss is going to be ****ing demolished tomorrow. The only thing that would make it worse would be if Mario didn't SFF Fox. Goodbye 23%-26% -- Big Boss is going to be made into an example. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
