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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 528

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/21/2007 10:15:00 PM | message detail
Auron is practically a Kingdom Hearts character. Look at what he did to Crono. He'll be making massive gains. The question is, will it be enough?

TuRtLe
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/21/2007 10:15:13 PM | message detail
I'm sure it's been brought up numerous times. It's too big a point to just go unnoticed.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/21/2007 10:15:39 PM | message detail
There's also a Cloud/Auron match in the way here. It doesn't take a genius to figure out who's befitting from Auron/Ryu going from an Auron beatdown to a Ryu victory.
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ZFS | Posted 10/21/2007 10:15:56 PM | message detail
Do you guys think it's possible that the gap between Link and Cloud was smaller than Link's win 54/46 win dictated, and he only received such a comfortable win due to the Wii and Twilight Princess launch?

I've thought that for a good while now. If there was ever a Twilight Princess boost, I think that was it right there. There's no way to confirm it or anything, but I figure if you held Link/Cloud in a one-on-one match today, Cloud makes that a good bit closer. It still closes pretty easy, but it's closer to a 52 - 53% for Link than what he got there, I think.

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transience | Posted 10/21/2007 10:15:59 PM | message detail
eh, Ryu was up 400 votes on Bowser at this time and ended up winning by 2800. there were a lot more votes to go around then, too.

Ryu's currently up 600 votes. I'll be flat-out shocked if Auron even comes close to making a match of this.
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xyzzy
Keno316 | Posted 10/21/2007 10:16:33 PM | message detail
Well, if the TP/Wii hype boosting Link IS a factor, then it could potentially go as far back as 2005 and 2004, where the TP hype and new Link hype first really started.


I doubt it goes that far, though...
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/21/2007 10:16:35 PM | message detail
It doesn't seem too illogical, either. Twilight Princess was the most hyped Zelda game since Ocarina. Wii was the most hyped console since the PS2. The match occurred one day before their respective launches.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/21/2007 10:17:59 PM | message detail
Heh, how hilarious would that be. Link loses his superhuman edge because his second most hyped game ever actually comes out.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/21/2007 10:18:50 PM | message detail
What? I thought that match was end of November. At least a week before the TP launch.

TuRtLe
~~~
221/272 in the contest. Next pick: Cloud > Bowser (lol)
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/21/2007 10:19:02 PM | message detail
Okay, I know I can't spell benefiting for whatever reason, but why was befitting the first thing FireFox suggested?
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transience | Posted 10/21/2007 10:20:01 PM | message detail
I find it hard to believe that hype > the actual game.. but maybe. if that's the case, Snake's not going to be boosting at all from Brawl actually being out. same goes for Pit or any of those guys.

I guess you could argue that because it's Zelda 10 and Link is already a known quantity that the game isn't going to help him much at all.. but that's bad logic that we've seen refuted before. EVERYONE boosts from new releases.
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xyzzy
HaRRicH | Posted 10/21/2007 10:20:10 PM | message detail
Yeah, but people had to rally for Link against Jay Solano on the day of its release!


More seriously, it's been on my mind a lot, but it's hard to imagine Link not gaining from not only having another GotY in the series and being on both the Wii and Gamecube, but also shedding the Wink Waker image/aftertaste.
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ZFS | Posted 10/21/2007 10:20:31 PM | message detail
Yeah. The big thing about that was when it took place in relation to TP and the Wii coming out. People were going to be able to get the system the next day. It's not too crazy to think Link got a bit more support there than he usually might due to the hype -- which was at its peak during that time. Nothing that even comes close to reversing the result, but enough to put that match back in line with a normal Link/Cloud match -- 52/48ish.

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HaRRicH | Posted 10/21/2007 10:21:41 PM | message detail
Heh, how hilarious would that be. Link loses his superhuman edge because his second most hyped game ever actually comes out.

Imagine how much Duke could drop if DNF ever came out...!
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creativename | Posted 10/21/2007 10:22:26 PM | message detail
It doesn't take a genius to figure out who's befitting from Auron/Ryu going from an Auron beatdown to a Ryu victory.

Not entirely comparable to Link/Zelda.

But then, maybe Zelda LFFs more from Link than Auron does to Cloud as well. There's uncertainty here. But just comparing strength, SFFed Auron>>>SFFed Zelda.


eh, Ryu was up 400 votes on Bowser at this time and ended up winning by 2800. there were a lot more votes to go around then, too. Ryu's currently up 600 votes. I'll be flat-out shocked if Auron even comes close to making a match of this.

Unfortunately I think you're right.
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ZFS | Posted 10/21/2007 10:23:26 PM | message detail
I find it hard to believe that hype > the actual game.. but maybe. if that's the case, Snake's not going to be boosting at all from Brawl actually being out. same goes for Pit or any of those guys.

Well, I don't think it necessarily applies to every case of hype and the game release. People could've picked it up the game the next day as opposed to the game being months, or even a year away.

Not that it matters much at this point, though, and there's not a whole lot to really prove it happened.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/21/2007 10:24:05 PM | message detail
Meh, the TP hype theory lost all relevance after Master Chief's second match, IMO.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/21/2007 10:24:45 PM | message detail
Other than Cloud beating Link.....
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creativename | Posted 10/21/2007 10:24:47 PM | message detail
Imagine how much Duke could drop if DNF ever came out...!

Heh :)

You know, I think a new Duke Nukem game will eventually come out someday...but it won't end up being called Duke Nukem Forever. Which would suck :(
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/21/2007 10:25:47 PM | message detail
We never saw LoZ:TP right after its release...the closest we saw were the GotY polls, which it decimated.
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transience | Posted 10/21/2007 10:27:49 PM | message detail
by the way, I hope you're all planning on making final match pics with WW Link. I plan to try and get the board to do this en masse!
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Keno316 | Posted 10/21/2007 10:28:08 PM | message detail
Geez tranny. Its all just harmless speculation and/or hype. No reason to shoot it down so hard.
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transience | Posted 10/21/2007 10:29:00 PM | message detail
actually, PH Link would do just fine!

http://www.ganonstower.com/images/ph1.jpg

Link is so screwed

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xyzzy
ZFS | Posted 10/21/2007 10:29:17 PM | message detail
If Cloud beats Link this year, one would hard pressed to find the one factor that made it happen. Even if the hype boosted Link in the match last year, Cloud still overturned a pretty decent deficit between the two with no release at all to help him do it, and Link still had another game to his game more recently than Cloud has. To that extent, I can understand where tran was saying it goes against all reason for it to happen.

but who needs reason not me suck it link woohoo cloud

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transience | Posted 10/21/2007 10:29:22 PM | message detail
it's my job to kill dreams -- especially aitch emm's
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/21/2007 10:31:10 PM | message detail
then youre useless hms bracket already kills his dreams
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ZFS | Posted 10/21/2007 10:31:15 PM | message detail
Wait.

I completely forgot about -- FFT BOOST I BELIEVE

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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/21/2007 10:31:30 PM | message detail
For what it's worth, Zelda characters have looked poor so far from what I expected. Zelda losing so badly to Vincent and Ganon being that close to Luigi. I thought they would overperform with TP out.

Still, can't say much about Link yet. Destroyed the competition in the first round and we have nothing to compare that to in terms of a 4-way blowout. Then Bidoof/Zelda screw up round two. The next match should tell us a lot more.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/21/2007 10:31:51 PM | message detail
Link beats Cloud and Sephiroth combined (again) in the semis.

Book it!
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creativename | Posted 10/21/2007 10:34:47 PM | message detail
by the way, I hope you're all planning on making final match pics with WW Link. I plan to try and get the board to do this en masse!
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actually, PH Link would do just fine! http://www.ganonstower.com/images/ph1.jpg Link is so screwed


Switching sides now eh...heel turn?

Bash Link with that chair!


To that extent, I can understand where tran was saying it goes against all reason for it to happen.

It goes against all pre-contest reason. Everything in contest has been the aforementioned AVALANCHE
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transience | Posted 10/21/2007 10:35:56 PM | message detail
I thought Ganondorf looked fine in both of his matches, especially the first one. tough to say anything about anything Zelda characters thanks to unknowns/joke characters though. the only thing we have is the Zelda/Vincent match, and that's not much to go on.

if you want to go that route, every Mario character sans Yoshi has looked somewhat bad, every Sonic character has looked bad, and a lot of Square characters have looked mediocre.
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xyzzy
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/21/2007 10:36:11 PM | message detail
Link beats Cloud and Sephiroth combined (again) in the semis.

I'd probably be the only one here not cursing!
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transience | Posted 10/21/2007 10:36:45 PM | message detail
most people here know that I like Cloud a lot more than Link. it's no heel turn!
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ZFS | Posted 10/21/2007 10:37:59 PM | message detail
Well, I mean that to say what reason is there for Cloud to have boosted? His performances are certainly indicative of being able to at least compete with Link, but the reason behind why he's doing so well in comparison to, say, last year is a bit hard to pin down. It's not a site wide Square boost; he hasn't had any release within the past year; there's nothing receiving a lot of hype that's on the horizon... just not a whole lot of reason for him to be doing better despite the fact that he is.

This is clearly the work of the delayed second playthrough factor KH2 boost

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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/21/2007 10:38:07 PM | message detail
So Wind Waker design will screw Link agian.

This could be epic.
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smitelf | Posted 10/21/2007 10:38:58 PM | message detail
Up until now, Auron looked = Vincent in this contest.
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smitelf | Posted 10/21/2007 10:40:22 PM | message detail
Well, I mean that to say what reason is there for Cloud to have boosted?

Maybe those FFVII games that have been coming out lately? Delayed AC boost? <_<
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transience | Posted 10/21/2007 10:41:08 PM | message detail
I wonder how much we would have hyped Cloud > Link if they were in the main bracket the last two years.
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xyzzy
Kaxon | Posted 10/21/2007 10:42:27 PM | message detail
The hype and speculation is definitely the best part about having them in the main bracket.
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ZFS | Posted 10/21/2007 10:44:49 PM | message detail
Probably not a whole lot. I recall Link pulling a Cloud in that he was impressing far more in each match he was in -- if not by percent, then the amount of votes or something.

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ZFS | Posted 10/21/2007 10:45:02 PM | message detail
Link in 2004, that is.

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Keno316 | Posted 10/21/2007 10:46:16 PM | message detail
2004 was just crazy as far as Link was concerned. He was just completely demolishing everything in his path.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/21/2007 10:49:47 PM | message detail
That 2004 match against Yoshi was one of the most dominating performances I think we'll ever see.
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transience | Posted 10/21/2007 10:51:02 PM | message detail
Link basically SFFed the entire bracket sans Crono. today, we'd be hesitant to draw conclusions based off that!

funny how time changes.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 10/21/2007 10:53:48 PM | message detail
then again, so did Cloud sans Samus.

man, 2004 sucked.
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ZFS | Posted 10/21/2007 10:55:36 PM | message detail
We got the games contest at least!

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transience | Posted 10/21/2007 10:56:06 PM | message detail
aww yeah division 128
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xyzzy
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/21/2007 11:12:44 PM | message detail
Well, I mean that to say what reason is there for Cloud to have boosted?

Not much since last year. We did only see him in 1 match last year without Sephiroth leeching off of him though, so he very well could have boosted with KH2/AC and simply not been noticeable due to weirdness in the final match.
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/21/2007 11:13:38 PM | message detail
Er, final 2 matches. I still forget that Snake won that.
smitelf | Posted 10/21/2007 11:15:22 PM | message detail
This match is over, and the next one is obvious. How about Link/Vincent/Crono/Zero? Link is first, but I can envision any of the others taking second - I'd say it's about a 60% chance that this is the breaking of the N9. The more I look at it, the more Vincent seems stronger than Crono this year (yes, I know I stated otherwise just a few hours ago <_<). Zero also has a big opening here - if Vincent and Crono LFF each other enough, he could slip through just over the wire into second place.
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