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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 528

The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/21/2007 9:35:38 PM | message detail
Oh noes Cloud drop wut is goin on herez
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Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2007 9:35:40 PM | message detail
EXPLOSIVE Ryu update. No chance for Cloud now. Oh well, it was good while it lasted.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Cloud/Marcus/Auron/Ryu - Bracket: Cloud > Ryu - Vote: Auron (231/272)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/21/2007 9:35:45 PM | message detail
Oh, add Ryu and Bowser to that list.

TuRtLe
~~~
221/272 in the contest. Next pick: Cloud > Bowser (lol)
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
creativename | Posted 10/21/2007 9:35:46 PM | message detail
Pretty much every single thing in this contest so far has foreshadowed Cloud>Link.

Maybe Cloud decided "If I'm going down, I'm going down in flames baby! I'll lose while I'm the favorite!"
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smitelf | Posted 10/21/2007 9:35:49 PM | message detail
Damn Auron...damn. I knew you'd lose, but...damn :(
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ZFS | Posted 10/21/2007 9:36:31 PM | message detail
It's not as though it's unwarranted hype. Unless you have some rather absurd expectations of where Cloud needs to be, it's worth the discussion to consider Cloud over Link. If we say that Cloud ends up with 50% here, which is more impressive -- 51% against Vincent/Bidoof/Zelda or 50% against Auron/Ryu/Fenix?

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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/21/2007 9:37:12 PM | message detail
Given that Zelda might as well count as a second Bidoof in that poll, I'm going to lean towards this current one. <_<
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
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creativename | Posted 10/21/2007 9:37:26 PM | message detail
Man, mah boy Auron is looking bad right now.

But hey, on the bright side, if anyone can blow this it's Ryu.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/21/2007 9:38:13 PM | message detail
Auron blew it with that picture. Come on man
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Seginustemple | Posted 10/21/2007 9:38:27 PM | message detail
Bidoof>Auron IMHO
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transience | Posted 10/21/2007 9:38:38 PM | message detail
you know as well as anyone that a "joke character" makes a character's percentage suffer. look at Sephiroth's first round match, for example.

put another way, Crono/Vincent/Zero > Auron/Ryu/Marcus by quite a bit. if Link pushes 45% next round, I'd say a lot of this Cloud > Link talk goes away, and I think he gets that.
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xyzzy
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/21/2007 9:39:34 PM | message detail
The fact that Cloud has been able to deliver this amount of SFF to Auron while Link failed to SFF Bidoof means one thing. Cloud is the new King of SFF and will probably SFF Snake more than last year. Also he might SFF Sonic too at this rate.
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transience | Posted 10/21/2007 9:39:38 PM | message detail
and, um, I think this is over. Ryu's going to extend this bigtime overnight, and I highly doubt Auron's going to be able to turn this around. if he were some kind of day vote god, then maybe, but he's not. he's getting beat pretty hard here.

there's still a chance for Auron here, but I'll be really surprised if he turns it around.
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xyzzy
smitelf | Posted 10/21/2007 9:40:40 PM | message detail
put another way, Crono/Vincent/Zero > Auron/Ryu/Marcus by quite a bit. if Link pushes 45% next round, I'd say a lot of this Cloud > Link talk goes away, and I think he gets that.

To be fair, Crono and Vincent may SFF each other a little. I don't think Cloud > Link looks like the most likely option right now, but the odds have gone up a notch for Cloud tonight.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/21/2007 9:40:54 PM | message detail
Ryu crashes pretty hard with the day vote. I wouldn't count Auron out completely until we see just how badly Ryu clobbers him in the night. Things don't look very good though
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/21/2007 9:41:08 PM | message detail
Wow... Auron is getting slaughtered now.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/21/2007 9:41:22 PM | message detail
Woah, Ryu just killed Auron with that update. This definitely is getting out of hand fast.
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/21/2007 9:41:27 PM | message detail
Why the hell would Cloud SFF Sonic?
~~~
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ZFS | Posted 10/21/2007 9:41:27 PM | message detail
Oh, certainly. If Link comes out and responds with an impressive performance of his own this round, there won't be much reason to give it a whole lot of consideration. But for the time being, based on what we're seeing here, it's not crazy to think about it. Cloud getting 50% doesn't make him a lock, but does he have a real shot at winning? Certainly; don't see how that can be denied -- unless, of course, Link comes out and gets blows us away later this round.

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Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2007 9:41:35 PM | message detail
Fenix is going to pass up Auron with the day vote at this rate.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Cloud/Marcus/Auron/Ryu - Bracket: Cloud > Ryu - Vote: Auron (231/272)
creativename | Posted 10/21/2007 9:41:43 PM | message detail
you know as well as anyone that a "joke character" makes a character's percentage suffer. look at Sephiroth's first round match, for example.

You are really reaching here. Sephiroth's improvement was because the LFF between his opponents got kicked up a coupe notches. Joke characters would only do this if their votes were stuffed.

put another way, Crono/Vincent/Zero > Auron/Ryu/Marcus by quite a bit. if Link pushes 45% next round, I'd say a lot of this Cloud > Link talk goes away, and I think he gets that.

Yes, Link getting 45% there would counter a 50% performance by Cloud here. But that's because 45% would be *really* good. People aren't expecting that.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/21/2007 9:41:48 PM | message detail
Link is going to look like crap if he gets his LoZ sprite.

TuRtLe
~~~
221/272 in the contest. Next pick: Cloud > Bowser (lol)
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
red sox 777 | Posted 10/21/2007 9:42:01 PM | message detail
Going by their matches with Crono last year, Auron's day vote is on par with Sonic's.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/21/2007 9:42:11 PM | message detail
Well I think I take back my last comment. Geez Auron what the hell
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This story is not an end yet.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/21/2007 9:42:13 PM | message detail
Ryu's GOT to drop more -- he got 26.16% last round, there's no way this lasts with him at ~23.5% or Auron at ~19.5%. He's Street Fighter, and Auron's new-age FF/KH2. Ryu better build while he can if he wants this to last...but he's doing a terrific job so far.
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Seginustemple | Posted 10/21/2007 9:42:19 PM | message detail
Damn, Auron under 20 already? I didn't think the SFF would go this bad....
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/21/2007 9:42:40 PM | message detail
I figure Cloud will be heading into the finals as the favorite. You guys want it so bad, huh.
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Keno316 | Posted 10/21/2007 9:42:42 PM | message detail
The problem is gonna be that once morning hit, most of the support is going to go overwhelmingly to Cloud.

So even with Ryu's collapse, Auron's not gonna get all that much of it.

Marcus isn't even registering on the radar...
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transience | Posted 10/21/2007 9:43:10 PM | message detail
nothing wrong with thinking about it -- we've been thinking about it for five years now and I hope it happens -- but I will not call it likely until I see an absolutely crazy performance. a Cloud/Sonic 2k3 performance, if you will.
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xyzzy
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/21/2007 9:43:39 PM | message detail
Ryu's got the night and the during school vote to build a lead, and Auron's only the third best character with the day here. The fighter's looking really good to advance.
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hochiminh155 | Posted 10/21/2007 9:44:34 PM | message detail
I figure Cloud will be heading into the finals as the favorite. You guys want it so bad, huh.


Yes, everyone here wants Cloud to beat Link for two reasons


1. Everyone here likes Cloud better and are sick of a joke character like Link winning
2. They all want to see me win
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/21/2007 9:45:11 PM | message detail
Actually, we want to see you lose despite getting Cloud > Link right. <_<
~~~
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Keno316 | Posted 10/21/2007 9:46:09 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/21/2007 9:46:14 PM | message detail
I'd much rather Link win, but I would like to see hoch win, too. It would be epic.
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ZFS | Posted 10/21/2007 9:46:23 PM | message detail
nothing wrong with thinking about it -- we've been thinking about it for five years now and I hope it happens -- but I will not call it likely until I see an absolutely crazy performance. a Cloud/Sonic 2k3 performance, if you will.

Well, it becomes a lot more of a possibility than it was before the contest started. Even if Cloud doesn't win, I think it's going to end up being a lot closer than one might expect a Link/Cloud match to go.

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Keno316 | Posted 10/21/2007 9:46:39 PM | message detail
...Er...I mean Cloud at 46 not even an hour in. >_>


Freuding slip!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2007 9:46:51 PM | message detail
Wait, Link's in this match??? Well no wonder he's doing so well!
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/21/2007 9:47:02 PM | message detail
Vincent/Auron is a tossup.
Ryu > overrated Zelda
Marcus > Bidoof

Cloud pulling 46-48% is more impressive than 51% on those 3 tbhimho
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creativename | Posted 10/21/2007 9:47:13 PM | message detail
Cloud is the new King of SFF

Looks like someone else's (Harrich's?) theory (which I bought into) of being reduced to core fanbase, used to explain Mega Man not SFFing Yoshi much in this format, is failing for Auron here. But for Cloud to SFF Auron, who looked so dominant until this match, this much...that's godly impressive by Cloud.


but the odds have gone up a notch for Cloud tonight.

Heh I just used the word notch too :) An omen.


Link is going to look like crap if he gets his LoZ sprite.

Possible.

That would fall in line with my "Cloud wants to lose to Link as the favorite" thing.
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BDawg | Posted 10/21/2007 9:47:22 PM | message detail
Bacon should've just put Link and Cloud in the same pack in round 1 and just let them go at it every round.
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Keno316 | Posted 10/21/2007 9:47:23 PM | message detail
...


Freudian* even. -_-
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/21/2007 9:48:54 PM | message detail
Actually, we want to see you lose despite getting Cloud > Link right. <_<

Actually, I want to see him rank but it turns out he's not eligible for prizes.


Ryu > overrated Zelda

Really? ...really...?
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smitelf | Posted 10/21/2007 9:48:59 PM | message detail
Marcus > Bidoof

No, I think Bidoof holds up better in this format against stronger competition.
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ZFS | Posted 10/21/2007 9:49:26 PM | message detail
Marcus > Bidoof

I actually doubt that.

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creativename | Posted 10/21/2007 9:49:49 PM | message detail
1. Everyone here likes Cloud better and are sick of a joke character like Link winning

I actually like Link better outside these contests, Link is just awesome. However I want Cloud to win.

2. They all want to see me win

LET'S GO HO-CHI! *clap, clap, clap-clap-clap* LET'S GO HO-CHI! *clap, clap, clap-clap-clap*
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hochiminh155 | Posted 10/21/2007 9:50:19 PM | message detail
Actually, I want to see him rank but it turns out he's not eligible for prizes.


What? Of course I am. When I win and get prizes, I'm not sharing with you.


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mr_BRIAN | Posted 10/21/2007 9:50:20 PM | message detail
When Zelda's getting pasted by SFF (which probably makes Link overperform), Ryu is definitely > her.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2007 9:51:19 PM | message detail
49% update

...

Why is this happening
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
Keno316 | Posted 10/21/2007 9:51:24 PM | message detail
And 49% updates now...HahahaHAAAAA! This is gonna be fun...
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transience | Posted 10/21/2007 9:51:54 PM | message detail
I think it's not as close as others in here do, actually. this place seems to be struck with Cloudmania out of desperation to have a good match and/or because they want Cloud to win. I'm just not seeing it. it goes against all reason. maybe I have Linkfear, but it's certainly justified.

really, the *only* reasoning I can come up with is that Cloud's fanbase is more dedicated than Link's, and that just doesn't make any sense to me, not when Snake is going to be in the poll. he's going to hurt Cloud more than Link (BR confirms this). I realllllllly don't think Sonic being there hurts Link significantly, certainly not more than Cloud/Snake, and Cloud's already fighting an uphill battle being the weaker character for three years running. if the fourth guy is Master Chief, that line of reasoning gets thrown out the window anyway.
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xyzzy