GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 526
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/18/2007 9:40:40 PM | message detail |
|
Oh this is so freaking awesome, GO SORA AND LOL AERIS. *Creativename's websites* Everything you could ever imagine: http://www.GameFAQsContests.com http://www.sc2k5.com http://www.sc2k4.com Sortable Table for Every Contest Match: http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19 *Extrapolated Standings* Explanation of Extrapolated Standings: http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11 Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings: A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left): http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/ *Solarshadow's Sites* Summer 2002 Contest: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com Summer 2003 Contest: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating) http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html *Old Stats topics* Summer 2002 Contest: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html Summer 2003 Contest: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note) 2003-2004 Off-Season: http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note) Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL. Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them): http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them): http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm *Match Pictures* All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones! http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php *Miscellaneous* Creativename's Page of Links: http://sc2k4.com/links.php UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language): http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language): http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches: http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm All Time Top 10 Lists: http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2002stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2003stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2004stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2004stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2005stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2005stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/july2006stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2006stats.htm RPguy's Hourly Poll Updates: www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/contest.html HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 TRE's poll listing (every poll!): http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html Aprosenf's Poll Script: http://adamrose.mit.edu/allpolls.txt GameFAQs' Top 100 Games http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/top10 Manual Poll Updater: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php ~*ST*~ |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/18/2007 9:41:26 PM | message detail |
|
wtf too early --- CB6 - 170/240; Oracle - 31st http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2007 9:42:07 PM | message detail |
|
lol aeris indeed And to think, I was actually worried that she would take second here. TuRtLe ~~~ 189/240 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Sora BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/18/2007 9:46:03 PM | message detail |
|
I have her second in my bracket, but I hate her and rooted for Sora from day one. ~*ST*~ --- Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=37308859 |
| voltch | Posted 10/18/2007 11:39:55 PM | message detail |
|
wow other topic hasn't even got 450 posts yet! --- Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest. |
| creativename | Posted 10/19/2007 2:26:15 PM | message detail |
|
Compare Lara Croft and Sora today, and then compare them in Round 1. Sora's barely being affected by LFF, if at all. Could be the non-linearity that seems to be crushing the weakest character. Also, I think Sora would've done at least 5-6% better today if it was done last year... That's a massive difference. I cannot see that at all. Sora seems to be similar to last year in strength I think. The one thing I think you're right about is that this is SFF reversal between Aeris and Sora. I guess the lesson is that when there is overlap with a clear preference, there can remain overlap with a clear preference. If the weaker character becomes the stronger though, the direction the SFF takes can easily flip. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/19/2007 2:27:22 PM | message detail |
|
tag --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/19/2007 2:39:10 PM | message detail |
|
Aeris below 20%. --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 10/19/2007 2:40:43 PM | message detail |
|
I guess KH really does have a hardcore fanbase. It's a shame that Sora
is so strong. He really shouldn't be until he gets his fruity booty
stars into a game that's actually playable --- Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest |
| Haste_2 | Posted 10/19/2007 2:42:18 PM | message detail |
|
5-6% isn't a massive difference. Or, at least, Sora beating Squall
would not be a massive diffence. Turn Squall/Sora into a direct match,
and Squall's beating Sora with 54.35%... might even up more like 53%
when it's all said and done. That's not a very big difference at all. I
don't see what's so wrong with saying Sora could've beaten Squall had
this match taken place last year. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 10/19/2007 2:43:50 PM | message detail |
|
45% on MM vs 42.5% on Super Snake. I'll take Squall, thanks. Sora isn't
going to get weaker than last year. If anything, he's stronger --- Hochiminh155's Trail to Victory Future winner of the Summer 2007 Contest |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/19/2007 2:44:37 PM | message detail |
|
omg Lara comeback >_> --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg |
| Nemesis12 | Posted 10/19/2007 2:46:33 PM | message detail |
|
Squall is a pwnzor. --- weeee |
| Haste_2 | Posted 10/19/2007 2:55:54 PM | message detail |
|
You will all see when Squall crushed Sora next round! Sora 35 41.88% Lara 25.5 25.99% Wesker 24 24.04% Daxter 9.25 8.08% No way. Sora 33 41.82% Lara 24 25.9% Wesker 22.75 24.17% Daxter 8.75 8.1% Still no way. Sora 29 41.85% Lara 21 25.77% Wesker 20 24.2% Daxter 7.75 8.18% That's more like it! 2K4/2K5 level! For that matter... Snake 45 47.8% Riku 24 19.4% Ryu Hayabusa 23.5 18.92% Nightmare 18 13.89% Riku's also at his 2K5 level! And Hayabusa hasn't grown in strength! Huzzah! I didn't even really mean to calculate them that way... --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| creativename | Posted 10/19/2007 2:58:14 PM | message detail |
|
You lost me. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Haste_2 | Posted 10/19/2007 3:01:56 PM | message detail |
|
That was using the results generator at your site, creative. The first
number is the x-stat, and the second number is the result. I made
hypothetical strength values for Sora to determine how strong the other
characters were. I'm afraid I don't have the tools or the time to make
the results exact, heh. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| creativename | Posted 10/19/2007 3:25:35 PM | message detail |
|
OK I see. Setting Sora to the same as last year (30.64%, based off Samus=40%), the strength values are Sora 30.64% Lara 22.23% Wesker 21.07% Daxter 8.18% (used Morgoth's spreadsheet+Excel solver to get this) Seems reasonable to me. With the format difference, you can't really try to pinpoint things or be overly accurate. Based on the current results with that value for Sora, Squall ends up around 34%. Last year he was 31.8%. So if you think Squall should be the same as last year, Sora's probably lower than that 30%, but it doesn't necessarily mean Sora's weaker this year, as the format difference makes things a lot more variable from match to match. Also it could be due to a couple points of SFF. Really there's nothing remotely definitive that can be said. I don't get this Sora getting 5 more points stuff though. Again, that's massive. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 10/19/2007 3:27:59 PM | message detail |
|
Also the Snake/Riku match to me seems like the format most likely
coming into play and our x-stat formula not working out for whatever
reason, making Riku look worse than he would get 1-on-1 vs. Snake. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/19/2007 3:49:05 PM | message detail |
| tag . KB |
| Haste_2 | Posted 10/19/2007 5:04:35 PM | message detail |
|
Ah, okay. Sora doing 5% better is a little bit larger amount than i
thought, since I failed to remember that that would mean the others
would have to drop in percentage, too. I think my point of Sora
possibly winning last year, though, should still stand, as it doesn't
take much of a difference at this rate. For that matter, I take back
the good chance of Aeris beating Sora now... Sora is just killing Aeris
now. I used more than the 4-way calculation to reason that Sora is at his 2K5, though... just compare Lara's 26% to Sora's 42%, and keeping in mind Lara shouldn't do well in a 4-way poll. That was just mind-boggling bad to me. And this was a Lara who struggled to beat Wesker, so it's hard to imagine Lara doing good in this format. Even Zero just about doubled HK-47 in the first round, and I'd have a hard time envision it to lose to Wesker. There's more reason to believe Riku fell to his 2K5 value more than just doing the math, too... Hayabusa falls into place. Nobody expected Hayabusa to boost much, if any at all. With that in mind, Riku being close to his projected pre-KH2 strength falls right in line with Sora's (who also happens to be beating Lara by practically the identical amount this round, suggesting lack of LFF, contrary to reasoning). Finally, there is reason to say that Sora and Riku falling down down to earth isn't out of the question... KH2 was only a few months old, and was still generating heavy FAQ hits (most "new" games were out at least 7 months before that game's character appeared in the next contest). Sora even got a 1-seed that year. Anyway, I expect some of you to argue against individual points I've made that are flawed, but the whole idea still stands! --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/19/2007 5:14:30 PM | message detail |
|
First time I've looked at this match since last night, and holy crap @ this spanking. A sad, sad performance from Aeris. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Who Cares? | Posted 10/19/2007 6:37:27 PM | message detail |
|
Just noticed how much Sora's hacked into Squall's lead since roughly
the 16th hour. Not a whole lot, but perhaps something to keep in the
back of your mind next round? *shrug* --- Current Points: 183 -- 47th on Leaderboard 11/17/07: The day Street Fighter 4 became a reality! |
| Big Bob | Posted 10/19/2007 6:39:08 PM | message detail |
|
Er, what's wrong with Aeris? --- "You're slowing going from Nixon to Mr. Burns." -Jon Stewart on Bush |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/19/2007 6:39:23 PM | message detail |
|
I had some justification for Sora coming in second next round, but it's a bit silly. <_< ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| Merc25 | Posted 10/19/2007 7:31:35 PM | message detail |
|
Er, what's wrong with Aeris? Do you want me to answer to logically or illogically? Logical Answer: She's a freaking corpse for crying out load! Hell, by merely participating in the contest she is legally a zombie. I don't know about you, but do you want to see a zombie advance and possibly eat the brains of Sonic? Well, to be fair there hasn't been much evidence that indicates he has one, but trivial details aside. Illogical Answer: YaoiFAQs <3 slash-fanfics, involving brooding dark tall quiet emo types and young innocent hyperactive prepubescent boys. Playing some BDSM games on a rose petal covered pink heart shaped bed. --- If you read this signature, then you have wasted your time. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BEsZMvrq-I |
| Keno316 | Posted 10/19/2007 7:33:10 PM | message detail |
|
I don't know about you, but do you want to see a zombie advance and possibly eat the brains of Sonic? I wish I'd voted for her now... --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/19/2007 7:42:15 PM | message detail |
|
That would make for some character development from her, at least. Compare Lara Croft and Sora today, and then compare them in Round 1. Sora's barely being affected by LFF, if at all. Also, I think Sora would've done at least 5-6% better today if it was done last year... Not saying you're wrong, but does LFF really need to be mentioned when the fanbase in question owns 82.5% of the poll? --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/19/2007 7:50:02 PM | message detail |
|
You know, the vote totals today aren't as low as you'd expect for a match that should have massive amounts of LFF. Today's poll at 22:44: 114778 Snake/Ryu/Riku/Nightmare at 22:44: 122224 --- Character Battle VI -- Points: 167/240 -- T-460 (55 way) Bracket: Squall > Aeris -- Vote: Aeris |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/19/2007 7:58:51 PM | message detail |
|
Just for kicks...if Squall was replaced by Yuna today, how would the match go aside from Sora taking first? --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/19/2007 8:03:57 PM | message detail |
|
Match XLVIII: Duke Nukem vs Gordon Freeman vs Sonic vs Sub-Zero Past Matches Round 1 Duke Nukem - 30.18% Gordon Freeman - 29.57% Ike - 28.76% Guybrush Threepwood - 11.49% Sonic the Hedgehog - 39.64% Sub-Zero - 32.89% Prince of Persia - 17.97% Viewtiful Joe - 9.50% Analysis Last round we saw Duke, Gordon and Ike having the closest three-way battle so far with unlikely choice Duke taking first. Also last round we saw Sonic getting the lowest percent for a noble nine of the round and Sub-Zero not wanting to be showed up by Scorpion performs much better than expected in this match, or is Sonic in trouble? Sonic shouldn’t have too much trouble taking first in this match since Sub-Zero is probably his toughest opponent and if Sub-Zero somehow pulls a win I’ll eat my hat. Sonic’s performance last round wasn’t the greatest and if Duke or Freeman get anywhere close to Sub-Zero (who also maintains a similar distance to Sonic last round) Sonic could be in for an early exit; as early as round three if he does bad enough. Due to the weakness of the other two opponents Sub-Zero almost has a free win into the nest round. Sub-Zero did great last round and if this was more of a boost than a Sonic drop then he may have a chance at making it to round four especially with the Square overlap. I’m still shocked that despite Scorpion being in it since 2k2 it took Sub-Zero until 2k6 and help from the board to make it one of these contests. The battle for third between Duke and Gordon should be interesting. Last round we saw Freeman disappoint in a match where some people were calling it a lock for him. Since the last match Freeman has had a new game released for his series, The Orange Box and since Duke only beat Freeman by about 700 votes last round I think Freeman has a chance at winning. However there is still one factor that should be brought up and that is the picture. The theory goes that Freeman performs better when you can see the Half-Life symbol in the picture because even some Half-Life fans don’t even knows who Freeman is. However the first time we had a close-up on Freeman is the first contest after HL2 came out and ever since we’ve never had a full body picture of him so the theory hasn’t really been tested. That could’ve been all a HL2 boost. Last match of the round, though I’m really excited of next round since this will be the first time the noble nine will be put to the test since Snake/Bowser and to some people it is only a matter of days before it is broken. Also the one match that has been keeping me alive in the guru for so long is also put to the test next round. charmander6000’s Bracket: Sonic > Sub-Zero charmander6000’s Prediction: Sonic - 34.73%, Sub-Zero - 28.27%, Gordon Freeman - 19.73%, Duke Nukem - 17.27% --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Match 47: Squall > Aeris Points: 169/240 |
| paraboxx | Posted 10/19/2007 8:04:08 PM | message detail |
| Were the boards down for part of the day or something? This topic's still on the same page it was when I left it, twenty hours ago. First time that's happened in, um, ever. |
| paraboxx | Posted 10/19/2007 8:08:15 PM | message detail |
|
...on closer inspection, what few posts there are seem to be fairly evenly spaced. Guess there just wasn't much to talk about. Wasn't this one of the most anticipated matches of the round? Shame it got so boring so quickly. |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/19/2007 8:09:38 PM | message detail |
|
Not really, no. You either knew it was going to be Squall > Aeris or
Squall > Sora, and didn't even consider the other possibility. ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/19/2007 8:13:34 PM | message detail |
|
So, 5 more days until the biggest match of the contest. I can't wait. TuRtLe ~~~ 189/240 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Sora BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| creativename | Posted 10/19/2007 8:16:18 PM | message detail |
|
Er, what's wrong with Aeris? Nothing, I voted for her. Not saying you're wrong, but does LFF really need to be mentioned when the fanbase in question owns 82.5% of the poll? LFF is probably playing some role here, though we don't know to what extent. Given the collapses we've seen from characters who went from 2nd to 4th place (Shadow, Nightmare), it's possible LFF is the only thing keeping Lara from an utter collapse here. But we really can't be sure about anything. Lara's doing about what I expected here, because I figured the LFF would keep her from sucking, but it wouldn't be enough to put her in contention because of "4th place factor" or whatever. But obviously, this isn't remotely close to Riku/Roxas LFF. Now it would make no sense if it was anything close to that, but I'd still expect more than there apparently is. I guess FF7/FF8/KH cover a large majority of the site, in terms of having a voter be a fan of at least one of them. Also, a non-4th place/fodder factor character like SF Ryu might be able to make the LFF here far more obvious. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Gaddswell | Posted 10/19/2007 8:16:45 PM | message detail |
|
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-49.jpg http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-50.jpg Not sure if these were posted yet. Sprite Round! --- Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__ |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 10/19/2007 8:17:22 PM | message detail |
|
L-Block for the win! --- Mustache...and green... www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/19/2007 8:17:31 PM | message detail |
|
Awesome! --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/19/2007 8:18:12 PM | message detail |
|
augh snake won't even make it to round four ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| LordOfDabu | Posted 10/19/2007 8:19:11 PM | message detail |
|
Uh oh, Samus underperformance coming up! --- Hello world |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/19/2007 8:20:07 PM | message detail |
|
Loving that Auron sprite, by the way! Ryu looks stupid while Auron looks as badass as always. =D ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| The Real Truth | Posted 10/19/2007 8:20:13 PM | message detail |
|
Duke is gonna get closer to 12% this round with Sub Zero in the picture. --- GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/19/2007 8:20:29 PM | message detail |
|
I think that's the best picture Auron will ever have --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| ZFS | Posted 10/19/2007 8:21:13 PM | message detail |
|
Heh. Talk about dominating a picture. Great pic for Auron. --- "Ha! No spoony bard could spin a sweeter tale!" |
| transience | Posted 10/19/2007 8:22:01 PM | message detail |
|
aww man. I wanted to see the sprite round in round 4. Mega Man wins that picture, as he should. Crono will get his sprite vs. Vincent, again. L will be in good shape vs. Snake, who will probably look to suck. maybe that will help Kratos, who knows. Luigi probably looks good, Ganon not so much. what's Leon got for a sprite? RE2? if so, uh, not good. Sub-Zero will probably look great, judging by Scorpion's pic. --- xyzzy |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 10/19/2007 8:22:16 PM | message detail |
|
Also, it looks like this is the earliest possible sprite/appearance
round, so we'll probably see Bible Link and the like. Probably helps
Crono and L-Block the most, and it might hurt Ganondorf if we get LoZ
"Gannon." Same with Dante and Viewtiful Dante, though that's not really
a sprite... --- Mustache...and green... www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| LordOfDabu | Posted 10/19/2007 8:22:59 PM | message detail |
|
Looks more like "first appearance" than sprite. --- Hello world |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/19/2007 8:23:30 PM | message detail |
|
hey guys what does big boss look like. ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| transience | Posted 10/19/2007 8:24:04 PM | message detail |
|
actually, Scorpion wins that picture. can't mess with classic Scorpion. --- xyzzy |
| Gaddswell | Posted 10/19/2007 8:24:17 PM | message detail |
|
Big Boss vs Snake in the sprite round. Percentages? --- Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__ |
