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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 525

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2007 9:53:57 PM | message detail
People thought he got SFF'd by Snake last year, but they were kinda proven wrong when Snake beat Mega Man and Sonic by only 2% less.

TuRtLe
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189/240 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Sora
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 9:54:18 PM | message detail
Not really sure why Ryu is being considered for Turd here. Sure he didn't win, but he was never a lock to win in the first place, and it's not like the loss was even by a lot.

He's a better candidate than anyone else, really. You have to weight things by importance, so Shadow isn't a great choice, though he bombed harder. And again, Magus was actually the underdog going into his match.

Though this is far more debatable than star of the round. The turd choices this round really aren't so great (or maybe "bad", rather).
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ZFS | Posted 10/18/2007 9:55:15 PM | message detail
I mean, there's always Balthier again.

Balthier wins turd of the round for the 2nd round in a row IMO


it wounds

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transience | Posted 10/18/2007 9:57:41 PM | message detail
Balthier did better in round 2 than round 1, no? I'd consider Ada to be the turd before Balthier, at least relative to expectations.
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creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 9:58:08 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 9:58:42 PM | message detail
BTW, I just remember hochi's prediction for the last match. I said how if he switched Riku and Ryu it would be a solid pick (I think it would've been very close to the Oracle consensus then actually). Turns out his pick was better than that :)

People thought he got SFF'd by Snake last year, but they were kinda proven wrong when Snake beat Mega Man and Sonic by only 2% less.

Yeah, I was never a fan of the MGS/FF8 SFF idea. I was glad to see it disproven later.

I think a lot of people actually thought Squall could beat Snake there and were disappointed, but Squall looked awesome in retrospect.

If this format really does hurt Sonic, Squall would have a great shot here, pre-Brawl.

Come to think of it, Brawl messed up that Snake match where he was a popular upset choice. And now Brawl might screw him out of a 2nd potential huge upset! Interesting.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/18/2007 9:59:35 PM | message detail
pikachu for star of the round imo
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hochiminh155 | Posted 10/18/2007 10:01:48 PM | message detail
So, how does everyone think Gordon will do tomorrow? EVERYONE is talking about The Orange Box. The Orange Box is the biggest thing since Halo 3. Remember, HL2 turned Gordon from fodder into a lower mid-carder. Expect Orange Box to give him another massive boost.
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paraboxx | Posted 10/18/2007 10:02:53 PM | message detail
People are mainly talking about Orange Box for Portal, though.

Is Gordon in Portal? *hasn't played it, wishes he could*
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/18/2007 10:03:57 PM | message detail
GLaDOS > Gordon
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/18/2007 10:05:00 PM | message detail
companion cube for sc2k8
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Squall/Aeris/Sora/Lara - Bracket: Squall > Sora - Vote: Squall (199/240)
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/18/2007 10:07:10 PM | message detail
If it wasn't for Sora's presence and Brawl hype, I think a lot of people would be discussing Squall>Sonic right now.

While I dont believe Squall had a shot at him regardless... Sonic is still going to have to beat out Squall in a match that wont feature Sora.


KB
TexasAggie | Posted 10/18/2007 10:11:19 PM | message detail
Squall has certainly outperformed sonic so far. We'll have to see how big of an effect brawl hype has tho.
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Today: Snake>Riku
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/18/2007 10:15:39 PM | message detail
Is Gordon in Portal? *hasn't played it, wishes he could*

You play as an older Asian woman.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2007 10:16:32 PM | message detail
Sonic beat Vincent comfortably enough last year that I'm not too worried about him.

TuRtLe
~~~
189/240 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Sora
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 10:16:46 PM | message detail
pikachu for star of the round imo

Pikachu was a star in the 1st round though, and compared to his performance there didn't do anything particularly outstanding here. There was no flip-flop or anything.

You have to judge each round based on what's come before, otherwise you might just keep giving the star to the same people, because they showed enough strength early to carry them late. Someone like Chief and L-Block deserve star nods each round, because they did great relative to expectations each round. Pikachu did great in the 1st round, but expected in the 2nd round.


While I dont believe Squall had a shot at him regardless... Sonic is still going to have to beat out Squall in a match that wont feature Sora.

I hadn't even thought of that. Good point. Though with Brawl, it seems unlikely for Squall to place there.


Squall has certainly outperformed sonic so far. We'll have to see how big of an effect brawl hype has tho.

You are right, we have to see if Sonic shows any signs of hype failure.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/18/2007 10:17:23 PM | message detail
I was just taking a shot at HM with the PIkachu comment. :)
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creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 10:17:47 PM | message detail
Sonic did not beat Vincent comfortably at all. Year to year variation would make that difference mean a lot less, let alone format difference.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/18/2007 10:18:22 PM | message detail
We should have noble niners as Stars of the Round more often. Solid Snake for Star of the Round!
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creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 10:19:14 PM | message detail
I was just taking a shot at HM with the PIkachu comment. :)

Cure you then. Pikachu is filth, filth I say!! :)
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greatone10 | Posted 10/18/2007 10:21:07 PM | message detail
L-Block is star of the round, no doubt. No one expected him (it?) to beat Kirby at all.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2007 10:23:14 PM | message detail
Which is why I italicized the too.

TuRtLe
~~~
189/240 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Sora
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Who Cares? | Posted 10/18/2007 10:23:20 PM | message detail
How is L-Block NOT a unanimous choice for Star of the Round?!
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creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 10:29:27 PM | message detail
How is L-Block NOT a unanimous choice for Star of the Round?!

I don't get it either. Chief and Snake, maybe Ammy and (if you want to stretch it) Big Boss and SF Ryu and Riku, deserve honorable mentions. But L-Block is far and away the star of the round.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2007 10:33:28 PM | message detail
L-block needed Nintendo SFF to advance. If anybody is the star, it's SF Ryu. He totally redeemed his 2k5 performance by beating the crap out of Bowser.

TuRtLe
~~~
189/240 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Sora
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lopen | Posted 10/18/2007 10:36:50 PM | message detail
The Half-Life 2 boost is a myth. Gordon just does better against stronger opponents. I swear if people say "Orange Box boost" tomorrow when he beats Duke easily I'm gonna go uh... smack something.
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Draco1214 | Posted 10/18/2007 10:37:53 PM | message detail
Gordon Freeman lost to Duke Nukem. I will eat my wang if he beats Sub-Zero
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Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/18/2007 10:42:08 PM | message detail
Aeris cut.


KB
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/18/2007 10:43:30 PM | message detail
Oh, Gordon's definitely going to get an increase from The Orange Box. But after his performance against Duke, there's no way he's beating Subby.

And Lopen, it's pretty clear that Gordon did get a boost from HL2. He just overperformed in 2k6 thanks to Sora antivotes, just like Tingle.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/18/2007 10:44:41 PM | message detail
L-Block is undoubtedly the star of the round. Not only did he beat Kirby after losing by 14% the round before, he dominated the puffball en route to a 3.5% victory. He also stayed close enough to Kratos to have an excellent shot at the fourth round - this from a character many picked to lose in the first round. Unlike jokes like Mudkip or Bidoof, he went even with Kirby in the day and only lost a percent to Kratos. To top it all off, L-Block in round three was the second least predicted occurrence ever, topped only by Cloud winning 2003. You can't argue with that even if you thought he had a good shot of placing.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2007 10:46:46 PM | message detail
Looks like Aeris is going to try something with the night vote. Looks like we might have 2 ASV Kingdom Hearts comebacks in 2 days.

TuRtLe
~~~
189/240 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Sora
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lopen | Posted 10/18/2007 10:57:38 PM | message detail
Oh sure, Gordon probably gained from Half Life 2, but nothing near what people were saying. And no, it wasn't all or even mostly Sora anti-votes either... even the Gordon who lost to Leon is way too strong:

Duke Nukem (2003c) VS Gordon Freeman (2005c)

Duke Nukem has a strength of 18.46.
Gordon Freeman has a strength of 22.78.

Gordon Freeman wins with 59.48% of the vote!
A win of 18,159 with 95,754 total votes cast.
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Lopen | Posted 10/18/2007 11:01:22 PM | message detail
Aeris sure is looking to try something, to fail even harder.

Hell yes, Sora, kick her ass.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2007 11:06:02 PM | message detail
So, next round, most anticipated matches? I would imagine Link's and Snake's will be highest on the list. Cloud's has potential to be interesting.

TuRtLe
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189/240 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Sora
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lopen | Posted 10/18/2007 11:08:25 PM | message detail
Master Chief's for me. Not only do I want to see how well MC can hold up, but I think second place is pretty much a crapshoot at this point.
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Keno316 | Posted 10/18/2007 11:08:29 PM | message detail
I'm looking forward to L-Block.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2007 11:33:46 PM | message detail
Man, I'm really glad I have Squall > Sora...but it kills me that Hayabusa didn't advance -- I would almost certainly break the Top Ten for my first time like that, but bah. At least I'm still on the leaderboard.....
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/18/2007 11:40:55 PM | message detail
I agree that L-Block should be the star of the round. He got much closer to Kratos than to Kirby the round before, and I'm not so sure that Kirby could even beat Kratos. It was more than just LFF aiding L-Block.

Today's match... wow, I was caught off-guard. If it was 2K6 Sora I would've expected Sora to evade any SFF from anyway.. however, Sora's more-or-less proven to be much closer to his 2K4/2K5 strength, judging from Round 1, and also from today's match (note how the Sora/Lara proportion is almost identical between this round and last round). Considering I expected 2K3 Sora to be the same way, I expected at least Squall to SFF Sora a good amount. At the very least I'm glad that the silly idea that someone like Aeris or Sora has to SFF Sora no matter how strong Sora may be... is finally done away! ...I'm just surprised that Sora's not getting SFFed here, and he hardly seems affected by LFF at all. Looks like Squall is pretty safe beating out Sub-Zero next round, then (though I figure Subby still has a chance).

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HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2007 11:50:17 PM | message detail
Sora VS Aeris, who wins today head-to-head?
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/18/2007 11:52:14 PM | message detail
I'd probably take Aeris in a nailbiter... and no, she wouldn't take advantage of SFF.

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greatone10 | Posted 10/18/2007 11:53:09 PM | message detail
Sora.

That 2003 match means absolutely nothing. Kingdom Hearts has grown as a series exponentially and time has not been kind to Aeris at all.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/18/2007 11:56:22 PM | message detail
The only way Aeris would stand a chance against Sora is if some funky weird fanbase thing happened to let the weaker character win. And after today I think I can safely discount that
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/19/2007 12:08:19 AM | message detail
You know something's up when Lara is impressing more than Aeris
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/19/2007 12:09:13 AM | message detail
Looks like Squall will end up near his 1st round performance yet Aeris looks like she'll fall nearly 3 points short of hers. Sora hurting her and not Squall?
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/19/2007 12:09:32 AM | message detail
Or, that Aeris could just be stronger than Sora. Yes, I believe it's possible.

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/19/2007 12:14:18 AM | message detail
I guess I was being generous by saying 3 points. Given Sora's monstrous day presence in the poll she could fall as short as 5 points of her 1st round performance
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/19/2007 2:12:21 AM | message detail
JSYK guys, Lara cut Aeris.

Heh. Yeah, that "boobs on legs", personality-less bint is truly awful, isn't she?


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WhakkoJacko | Posted 10/19/2007 3:12:51 AM | message detail
Cool, Lara is chewing percentage and even catching up on Aeris in the occasional update. She could reach 19% if this continues.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/19/2007 3:24:22 AM | message detail
this 2nd round has been more than kind to me.

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Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/19/2007 3:29:10 AM | message detail
huh, the morning votes has started and Aeris is dying here... the ASV will bury her alive! but some due credits to her for stalling Sora for about three hours in the night. hope she can stay above 20% when all said and done (and not get beaten by Lara).
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