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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 525

Lady Ashe | Posted 10/18/2007 9:27:52 PM | message detail
From BlAcK TuRtLe Posted 10/19/2007 12:25:39 AM #344
Here's all the differences between my bracket and Moltar's. I'm currently 10 points behind him. (his picks in brackets)

Cloud > Bowser (Cloud > Ryu) - d'oh
Link > Zero (Link > Vincent)
Master Chief > Ganondorf (Ganondorf > Master Chief)
Snake > Kratos (Snake > Kirby)
Cloud > Mega Man (Cloud > Samus) - d'oh
Ganondorf > Master Chief (Ganondorf > Dante)

TuRtLe


Cloud > Ryu or Cloud > Auron.
Link > Vincent or Link > Crono
MC > Ganondorf or MC > Yuna
Snake > L-Block
Cloud > Samus
Master Chief > Dante.

Yeah, you have no chance.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2007 9:27:55 PM | message detail
All I need is for Auron, Zero and Kratos to take second in their matches, and for MC > Ganon and Ganon > MC to pan out.

TuRtLe
~~~
189/240 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Sora
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2007 9:29:58 PM | message detail
I beat Moltar if Sonic > Snake the first time around I think. I'm not liking my chances.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2007 9:30:13 PM | message detail
Holy crap, Snake > Riku made me jump 10 places on the leaderboard?

That's nuts.

TuRtLe
~~~
189/240 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Sora
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
transience | Posted 10/18/2007 9:30:30 PM | message detail
game.
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xyzzy
Master Moltar | Posted 10/18/2007 9:30:50 PM | message detail
set.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Squall/Aeris/Sora/Lara - Bracket: Squall > Sora - Vote: Squall (199/240)
therealmnm | Posted 10/18/2007 9:30:58 PM | message detail
Yeah, I always figured Sora had a chance when I made my bracket. The natural thing to think is that Sora gets double SFF'd with Squall and Aeris in the poll, but I thought otherwise. Squall alone being in the poll already probably SFF's Sora pretty badly (given how Squall trumps Sora in his own game and is bound to take away from that fanbase). Anything left after that is Sora's "hardcore" fanbase. Aeris in the poll doesn't automatically take more away from Sora. Anything she might have taken already is taken by Squall. Or at least it is shared with Squall. But not enough to prevent Sora from still getting his share of votes from his "pure" fanbase.
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TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/18/2007 9:30:59 PM | message detail
lara gobble gobble that one
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ZFS | Posted 10/18/2007 9:31:01 PM | message detail
So much for that!

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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2007 9:31:08 PM | message detail
hike
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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/18/2007 9:31:08 PM | message detail
Lara to beat Aeris confirmed.
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CB6 - 170/240; Oracle - 31st
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/18/2007 9:31:53 PM | message detail
From BlAcK TuRtLe Posted 10/19/2007 12:30:13 AM #354
Holy crap, Snake > Riku made me jump 10 places on the leaderboard?

That's nuts.

TuRtLe


Given that my brackets are all the same until Round 3(Because splitting up picks all over the place is silly when you can get them all right instead), and that you submitted earlier than me, it really isn't. o.O
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
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paraboxx | Posted 10/18/2007 9:32:21 PM | message detail
Sorry if I missed this discussion earlier in the topics, but...does Ryu get Turd of the Round after this? So many people gave him a Star last round, and this round he kind of collapsed. Or does he have a good enough excuse for it?
swirIdude | Posted 10/18/2007 9:33:08 PM | message detail
Pretty sure he has a good enough excuse for it unless there isn't anyone who hasn't completely bombed this round.

I mean, there's always Balthier again.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/18/2007 9:33:20 PM | message detail
Balthier wins turd of the round for the 2nd round in a row IMO, unless something crazy happens tomorrow.
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therealmnm | Posted 10/18/2007 9:34:23 PM | message detail
How is Ryu a turd for barely losing to Riku? With Snake taking so many votes, nothing was a lock from last round...
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transience | Posted 10/18/2007 9:35:34 PM | message detail
I'll probably do a writeup this weekend on that. suffice to say that Ryu is in no way in danger of getting anything even resembling turd of the round.
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xyzzy
TexasAggie | Posted 10/18/2007 9:36:08 PM | message detail
I beat everyone if Ganon goes to the finals.
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Contest pts: 179
Today: Squall>Sora
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2007 9:37:49 PM | message detail
Turd = Balthier easily. The only other characters I can think of to be in contention are Knuckles, Magus or Bowser

TuRtLe
~~~
189/240 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Sora
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Keno316 | Posted 10/18/2007 9:38:05 PM | message detail
So...L-block star of the round, right?
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creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 9:38:19 PM | message detail
For this main bracket contest, people are highly underestimating the volatility it seems to me. Later round matches are worth so many more points that a mistake there could easily cause someone who's comfortably on the leader board now to not even finish within 10 points of the final leaderboard. It'll still take a large amount of luck to win.

Sorry if I missed this discussion earlier in the topics, but...does Ryu get Turd of the Round after this? So many people gave him a Star last round, and this round he kind of collapsed. Or does he have a good enough excuse for it?

That's a good point.

In terms of expectations relative to post-1st round expectations (Balthier had none), it could well be Ryu. Many said Riku had a shot at him, but most actually laughingly dismissed the idea, because Ryu>Riku+Roxas made the notion seem absurd to them.
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swirIdude | Posted 10/18/2007 9:38:25 PM | message detail
I dont have the results in front of me, but MC and Balthier could take Star and Turd once again. I wouldn't be fond of keeping the same winners, but they have put up strong cases.
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Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle
FFDragon | Posted 10/18/2007 9:38:39 PM | message detail
After Round 1, we all knew Balthier was going to do this in Round 2. I think that fact alone saves him from being the turd.
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swirIdude | Posted 10/18/2007 9:39:20 PM | message detail
Yeah that's what I'm thinking.

Maybe Ammy could win it, that was a shocking win to say the least.
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/18/2007 9:39:37 PM | message detail
From transience Posted 10/19/2007 12:35:34 AM #367
I'll probably do a writeup this weekend on that. suffice to say that Ryu is in no way in danger of getting anything even resembling turd of the round.

Lara or Bowser?
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/18/2007 9:39:43 PM | message detail
Master Chief gets the star again for me. Ammy comes close, though.
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creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 9:39:44 PM | message detail
Star is L-Block, honorable mentions Chief and Snake so far.

Also there's no way Balthier should be considered a turd again, nobody expected jack from him.

Hayabusa seems to be the clear choice right now, actually.
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therealmnm | Posted 10/18/2007 9:40:13 PM | message detail
I don't see how L-Block doesn't win Star of the Round... joke entry be damned.
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swirIdude | Posted 10/18/2007 9:40:51 PM | message detail
Wait what, tranny wants to take over the Star/Turd write ups now?
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Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle
creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 9:41:32 PM | message detail
but most actually laughingly dismissed the idea, because Ryu>Riku+Roxas made the notion seem absurd to them.

BTW, just to note, I don't blame those people much for considering the idea absurd. But a heavy Roxas/Riku overlap should have been expected.

Ammy's a good honorable mention too. Only problem is that she isn't actually all that strong, she won more by her opponents disappointing.
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/18/2007 9:41:39 PM | message detail
From swirIdude Posted 10/19/2007 12:40:51 AM #379
Wait what, tranny wants to take over the Star/Turd write ups now?

Uhhh, why can't multiple people do it? o.O
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2007 9:41:43 PM | message detail
Kirby seems like a round little turd.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2007 9:41:51 PM | message detail
I'd give it to Shadow, Magus, or Kirby before Ryu.

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
therealmnm | Posted 10/18/2007 9:42:51 PM | message detail
Shadow's actually a pretty huge turd this round, methinks.
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paraboxx | Posted 10/18/2007 9:42:55 PM | message detail
Ugh. Yeah, Balthier did what was expected after Round 1...but Magus is definitely a candidate.

I mean, I want to give him a pass because of the pic, but...7%....
transience | Posted 10/18/2007 9:43:15 PM | message detail
L-Block might be the star of the contest to me, but after round 1 you had to expect that kind of performance. L's round 2 performance wasn't any crazier than its round 1 performance. I expect it to get in the 20s vs. Snake as well, and probably the same with Snake and Sonic if we get that far.
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xyzzy
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/18/2007 9:43:34 PM | message detail
Completely forgot about Shadow, just because he never had any chance of doing anything. <_<
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
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transience | Posted 10/18/2007 9:44:04 PM | message detail
Wait what, tranny wants to take over the Star/Turd write ups now?

oh, you want to do them? they're yours then - I was just volunteering since I didn't think anyone else would.
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xyzzy
creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 9:44:38 PM | message detail
I'd give it to Shadow, Magus, or Kirby before Ryu.

Shadow's a good honorable mention choice - only problem is that he was irrelevant, nobody ever expected him to contend in that match.

Magus flopped hard, but, he did have Naked Snake pic to fight. Also that match was considered a toss-up after the 1st round, and after the pic Big Boss was the clear favorite. Hard to give turd to someone who was actually a clear underdog before the match, I think.

And Kirby is semi-understandable. Ryu was much worse than him.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2007 9:44:41 PM | message detail
So, I think it's safe to assume Squall beats out Sub-Zero pretty comfortably next round.

TuRtLe
~~~
189/240 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Sora
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 9:46:18 PM | message detail
L-Block might be the star of the contest to me, but after round 1 you had to expect that kind of performance. L's round 2 performance wasn't any crazier than its round 1 performance.

L-Block is clearly the star of the round, it's not even debatable.

His 2nd round may have been slightly less shocking than his 1st round, but going from losing to Kirby by 15 points to becoming the favorite to place 2nd against Snake? That's quite the difference.
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swirIdude | Posted 10/18/2007 9:47:03 PM | message detail
Hey, I did it last round, I think I can handle it!

I think I can I think I can I think I can I think I can I think I can I think I can
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Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle
transience | Posted 10/18/2007 9:48:31 PM | message detail
I don't think Shadow is a huge turd.. again, round 1 showed he was going to bomb and that bomb wasn't all that unexpected. (I think he did better than my oracle, actually.)

I don't think anybody really outright bombed this round. nothing truly unexpected has happened except for yesterday's match, and I wouldn't call that a Hayabusa bomb. not even close.
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xyzzy
creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 9:48:47 PM | message detail
So, I think it's safe to assume Squall beats out Sub-Zero pretty comfortably next round.

Oh I didn't even think of that!

Yeah I sure hope so. Doesn't look like LFF with Sora is going to kill Squall there.

You still gotta give Sub-Zero a real good shot, but I'm comfortable with Squall's chances too.
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transience | Posted 10/18/2007 9:49:35 PM | message detail
His 2nd round may have been slightly less shocking than his 1st round, but going from losing to Kirby by 15 points to becoming the favorite to place 2nd against Snake? That's quite the difference.

SFF is a wonderful thing. once I saw his round 1 performance, I thought he'd make round 4. I'm not the only one, either!
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xyzzy
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/18/2007 9:49:41 PM | message detail
Not really sure why Ryu is being considered for Turd here. Sure he didn't win, but he was never a lock to win in the first place, and it's not like the loss was even by a lot.
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transience | Posted 10/18/2007 9:50:38 PM | message detail
nice stall by Aeris there.
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xyzzy
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/18/2007 9:50:49 PM | message detail
What KleenexTissue said. Ohhh, Ryu did worse by a percent or so. What a turd.

As if.
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creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 9:51:27 PM | message detail
I remember people had lost a lot of faith in Squall, forget which match it was after exactly. Good to see him back up again.

I had lost a lot of faith in Squall, but some actually didn't think he had a shot.

If it wasn't for Sora's presence and Brawl hype, I think a lot of people would be discussing Squall>Sonic right now.
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paraboxx | Posted 10/18/2007 9:53:28 PM | message detail
Not really sure why Ryu is being considered for Turd here. Sure he didn't win, but he was never a lock to win in the first place, and it's not like the loss was even by a lot.

It isn't so much that he lost as that he lost after winning so big last time. He beat Riku and Roxas last round, but came up short against Riku alone here. He does have some excuses, though (such as all the overlap), which is why I posed the question instead of giving him the nod outright.
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