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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 525

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Lopen | Posted 10/18/2007 1:12:16 PM | message detail

Most thought Samus was a guy, but they still knew her, and those who wouldn't know her name would've recognized Metroid dude. Little Mac would not have been strong at all, even though everyone had played Punch-Out. Mac's name recognition would've been very low.

Hold it... you're using name recognition as a point to favor Samus > Little Mac? At least Little Mac's name is mentioned in the game. I dunno, it took some searching for me to get Metroid back then.

And I'm not saying LoZ was unpopular back then, I'm just saying Double Dragon and Castlevania might have as a series been moreso, judging straight from the NES.
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The Real Truth | Posted 10/18/2007 1:13:30 PM | message detail

So back to the match, Riku has been gaining heavily.
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/18/2007 1:13:54 PM | message detail

So, what does Ryu need to keep Riku's lead at in order for a comeback?
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2007 1:14:25 PM | message detail

-1
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/18/2007 1:15:44 PM | message detail

thanks
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creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 1:16:02 PM | message detail

I cannot even conceive of how anyone could think Little Mac>Samus back then. Badass suit dude from Metroid was popular. Little Mac? Come on.

And I'm not saying LoZ was unpopular back then, I'm just saying Double Dragon and Castlevania might have as a series been moreso, judging straight from the NES.

Double Dragon!? Hell no!

LoZ probably would've been the strongest non-Mario game, if you're talking poll-wise. Not for sure, but probably. Castlevania I could maybe see putting up a fight, but not Double Dragon, whatsoever. This is all speculation, but that's a massive, massive stretch.

As mentioned, LoZ always did well in those Nintendo Power rankings, and those were probably decent poll-proxies.
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voltch | Posted 10/18/2007 1:16:20 PM | message detail

go riku.
if you pass your chances of going further than sora will skyrocket!
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creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 1:17:33 PM | message detail

Oh, and if you're talking about co-op games, Contra would've destroyed Double Dragon.

And I spent a lot of time playing DD with my friends, fun game.
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thok | Posted 10/18/2007 1:17:36 PM | message detail

Back in the NES era, it probably be something like

Mario > Pacman> Mega Man > Link > Carmen San Diego> Samus > Frogger > the main character from Galaga> Billy Lee> Simon Belmont > The main character from Pole Position> Qbert > The main character from Joust>The main character from Oregon Trail

The Real Truth | Posted 10/18/2007 1:18:02 PM | message detail

Was that directed towards me? I'd guess that Ryu can't let Riku get above 500. They've been pretty steady the whole time, if Riku passes 500, then yeah.
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/18/2007 1:18:20 PM | message detail

Interesting comparison [beteween Nightmare and] Shadow there...what are these "similar reasons" though? Just being the weakest character?

I just think Shadow lost badly because there's not a lot of people who LOVE Shadow... he just gets very casual votes. In Round 1 he faced Auron and two weaklings. In Round 2 he faced Auron and two much stronger characters. I think it has more to do with the number of strong competitors than it has to do with the strength of a single character. I don't think it has anything to do with being the weakest character of the bunch, and I really don't think Hayabusa would SFF Nightmare.

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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/18/2007 1:18:39 PM | message detail

No, it wasn't. It was directed at the topic as a whole(minus EC).
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2007 1:20:12 PM | message detail

no, minus one
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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken

MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/18/2007 1:21:09 PM | message detail

Oh Crap, Ryu gained. That means Riku will get a 50 vote cut next update.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2007 1:21:47 PM | message detail

aww yeah
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/18/2007 1:22:17 PM | message detail

Friday was definitely the best day of the week thanks to the Zelda episodes of the SMBSS. Zelda wasn't as big, but I'd say it definitely would've had a more loyal fanbase.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2007 1:22:29 PM | message detail

It means Hayabusa owns the 4:20-onward vote. Xbox-owning weed-fiends love the ninja.
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swirIdude | Posted 10/18/2007 1:24:38 PM | message detail

I'm 25 points behind Moltar no matter who takes 2nd!
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MnMZero | Posted 10/18/2007 1:25:19 PM | message detail

So back to the match, Riku has been gaining heavily.

Gaining heavily? I think Ryu's actually holding up pretty well. He's definitely not out of it yet.
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/18/2007 1:25:28 PM | message detail

hey who was it the predicted ryu dominating past 4:20 aww yeah suck it
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JaKyL25 | Posted 10/18/2007 1:25:34 PM | message detail

How the heck did you know Link? Was his name ever mentioned in the game? I certainly don't remember seeing it.

Back then people actually read manuals.

Plus, Nintendo Power was extremely cool, and I'm sure they referred to him as Link.

And yes, the game was very popular. I wasn't even 10 yet but I had to have the game as soon as I got an NES.
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/18/2007 1:26:15 PM | message detail

...uhhh they were grabbing some game fuel from the fridge he'll gain 50 next update
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2007 1:27:10 PM | message detail

Riku is not doing nearly as well as I was hoping. I wanted him to completely shatter Ryu within the first few after school vote hours, thereby making an evening comeback impossible. At this rate, we may end up seeing something truly epic at the end.
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MnMZero | Posted 10/18/2007 1:28:22 PM | message detail

Friday was definitely the best day of the week thanks to the Zelda episodes of the SMBSS. Zelda wasn't as big, but I'd say it definitely would've had a more loyal fanbase.

More loyal fanbase than the Mario crew???
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/18/2007 1:28:24 PM | message detail

I wanted him to completely shatter Ryu within the first few after school vote hours, thereby making an evening comeback impossible.

You do realize Ryu is an Xbox character? The kind that are good with the ASV?
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creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 1:29:20 PM | message detail

This match is going to be up in the air for a while.
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The_Ocelot2 | Posted 10/18/2007 1:31:09 PM | message detail

I'm still fairly confident in Ryu.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2007 1:31:24 PM | message detail

I just looked at the morning vote percentages and threw those in with my undying KH fanboyism. I had no idea that most Xbox guys sucked with the morning vote in relation to their after school vote.
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Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/18/2007 1:32:24 PM | message detail

tag

KB

HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2007 1:35:13 PM | message detail

If it gets down to the wire, I think people are going to rally behind Riku...like Frog or PW. KH is bigger here than NG, plus lots of people still care for their brackets. Ryu needs to hang on tight here until the evening hours, and then finish strong.
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transience | Posted 10/18/2007 1:37:20 PM | message detail

yeah, Ryu's doing pretty good here, but he's still lost the last hour by 200 votes. Riku should be safe here.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2007 1:38:15 PM | message detail

My bracket is dead, but I'd rally for Riku like crazy. Love em and love his series. Looking at these trends, it'll probably be necessary, too. This isn't the kind of after school vote that looks like it'll last for several more hours. It's the kind that looks like it'll fizzle into a stall and then a loss with a few hours left to go.

Prove me wrong, Riku!
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2007 1:43:06 PM | message detail

Yeah, Ryu lost ~200 votes from 3:00-4:00, but he's only lost 92 in the past forty minutes. If Ryu can maintain the rate he's got right now and not let it get back to how it was an hour ago, Hayabusa and Riku would essentially be back at square one at 7:00...and I'd like Hayabusa more during those hours, barring rallying. Rallying will be a part of this match if it's close though.....
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transience | Posted 10/18/2007 1:50:11 PM | message detail

the afterschool vote generally goes until 9pm, though, and I don't see why it would change besides false hope. Riku has four more hours to kill 250 votes. let's be conservative and say he gets 100 votes per hour -- that's still a 200 vote lead. he'd need to stall the entire way and get a 200 vote push during that last hour. possible? maybe, but definitely not probable.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2007 1:52:00 PM | message detail

Jeez, the last 30 minutes have been scarily consistent. Get your asses home, west coast kids! You're the kiddiest kids of all!
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/18/2007 1:52:14 PM | message detail

From HaRRicH Posted 10/18/2007 4:43:06 PM #083
Yeah, Ryu lost ~200 votes from 3:00-4:00, but he's only lost 92 in the past forty minutes. If Ryu can maintain the rate he's got right now and not let it get back to how it was an hour ago, Hayabusa and Riku would essentially be back at square one at 7:00...and I'd like Hayabusa more during those hours, barring rallying. Rallying will be a part of this match if it's close though.....

Damn right it will be. Ryu H shall not lose. >=/
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smitelf | Posted 10/18/2007 1:52:52 PM | message detail

AmazingKirby | Posted 10/18/2007 1:55:19 PM | message detail

When I think of tomorrow's match, I try to think past the LFF/SFF and say "With three characters that are soooo much more popular than Lara, who is going to vote for her? No one. Sora wins."

But you know, that never really works.
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The_Ocelot2 | Posted 10/18/2007 1:55:45 PM | message detail

Almost under 200...
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/18/2007 1:56:02 PM | message detail

I'm surprised how long Ryu has held Riku down.
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/18/2007 1:56:55 PM | message detail

From AmazingKirby Posted 10/18/2007 4:55:19 PM #088
When I think of tomorrow's match, I try to think past the LFF/SFF and say "With three characters that are soooo much more popular than Lara, who is going to vote for her? No one. Sora wins."

But you know, that never really works.

link ganon zelda tanner
~~~
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Warsola | Posted 10/18/2007 1:57:44 PM | message detail

Link/Zelda/Vincent/Bidoof

...>_>
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2007 2:00:31 PM | message detail

The more I look at tomorrow's match, the more I don't like Sora's chances, and the more I really like Lara's. I actually think Lara will finish in 3rd, and she'll be closer to 2nd place than 4th. Sora is so much stronger than Lara that it looks ridiculous at first, but when you consider that he's almost certainly at the bottom of the SFF totem pole here, ouch. Lara, meanwhile, will be reaping the benefits of LFF. I think it'll be enough to put her comfortably above Sora, and perhaps even put her high enough to be competition for Aeris for 2nd place. Squall > Aeris seems the most likely outcome, but Lara's going to do interesting things, and I think she's being really underestimated right now.

It's a possibility, but Lara performed pretty damn poorly against Wesker, and while Sora's performance was disappointing in its own right, today's match hints at KH characters being more effective when the competition is tougher and not much pressure is on them to dominate. Of course, I'm feeling very confident about Squall > Aeris, but I still think Sora will take Ms. Croft.

I also think we can draw some evidence from Akuma's match. Granted, he got third, but there's no way Lara is in his league (Chun-Li put up 55% on her last year), and we all know Sora is miles ahead of Geno, so it would need to be some massive, Nintendo-level SFF.
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transience | Posted 10/18/2007 2:02:37 PM | message detail

that hour was 167 votes. if that happens again, we'll have a tie in an hour's time.

looks like Riku picked up the pace during that last hour though, and usually the 5-6 hour is the worst of the afterschool vote.
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transience | Posted 10/18/2007 2:02:46 PM | message detail

er, the last couple of updates that is.
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transience | Posted 10/18/2007 2:03:44 PM | message detail

as for tomorrow's match, the only result I'm sure won't happen is Aeris > Squall. everything else is possible.
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AmazingKirby | Posted 10/18/2007 2:04:21 PM | message detail

Oh, right. Well, you see, it never works. >_>

Of course, Link/Zelda is a a whole different league from Squallis/Sora, but yeah, it doesn't work.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/18/2007 2:04:23 PM | message detail

So Lara>Aeris is possible? >_>
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The_Ocelot2 | Posted 10/18/2007 2:05:33 PM | message detail

Ryu gain

ova
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The_Ocelot2 | Posted 10/18/2007 2:10:43 PM | message detail

I spoke too soon.
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