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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 524

hochiminh155 | Posted 10/18/2007 11:00:29 AM | message detail
Poor showing? All she really needs to do is manitain her percent she got last round. She might even go higher thanks to being the only non-Square character.
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Warsola | Posted 10/18/2007 11:00:42 AM | message detail
Replace Lara with Akuma. Do you take Akuma to get second?
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/18/2007 11:01:34 AM | message detail
But look what Squall did to Aeris last round.

Considering Aeris's sub-par performance last year, I don't even know if I'd call that SFF. Well yeah, obviously there was some but for someone who barely outperformed Yuna last year.... ehhhhh

Besides, Akuma had that fighting game character thing going on, and that seems to be helping some characters. Lara is just kind of a casual "well I don't care about these other people, so..." kind of thing
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hochiminh155 | Posted 10/18/2007 11:01:56 AM | message detail
Yes, I take Akuma to get second. What kind of question is that? Akuma nearly beat Aeris without Sora
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2007 11:03:08 AM | message detail
Replace Lara with Akuma. Do you take Akuma to get second?

Probably, yeah.

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Warsola | Posted 10/18/2007 11:04:45 AM | message detail
I just find it funny that people are giving Lara no chance, when she put 45% on Chun-Li, who is no doubt well above Akuma >_>
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smitelf | Posted 10/18/2007 11:05:08 AM | message detail
*looks at poll for first time*

Sweet tapdancing Christ, Snake!!!!!
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creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 11:12:10 AM | message detail
The thing about SF4 is, with online play being huge these days, we could be primed for a big fighting game revival.

The fighting genre went down in relevance a lot with the demise in popularity of arcades. Soul Calibur and games like that were big hits, but they never approached anything like peak SF2 and MK popularity.

Now SF4 won't approach anything like the arcade days popularity either, but with the Street Fighter brand name, and online play being the big thing these days, it might be a lot more successful than any fighting game since the arcade days. Which would be very relevant for these contests :)
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2007 11:13:09 AM | message detail
I wonder if Snake and Sonic will be in it.
creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 11:13:23 AM | message detail
Thanks to the SFF, Lara has a great shot at getting third. But after her poor showing last match, there's no way she's getting second.

I agree. Though I do think Lara has a shot at 2nd, I think it's pretty unlikely. One out of Aeris/Sora will probably hold up well. One may also collapse, which means she could get 3rd.
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creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 11:15:32 AM | message detail
I think Square SFF tends to be slightly less brutal.

Well, in hochi's defense, look at Riku/Roxas. That looked to have been epically brutal.


I wonder if Snake and Sonic will be in it.

Heh. Better yet, put Link on the Wii version :)

Hell, put Ganon in there too! Now that would give him a boost.
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smitelf | Posted 10/18/2007 11:17:17 AM | message detail
Riku was a lot stronger than Hayabusa last year. Regardless of how Round 1 looked, that alone should've caused at least some consideration that Riku could beat Hayabusa this round.

I think some of us still thought Riku had a shot because of the crazy SFF in the last match, but yeah, he should have been given more credit. Oh well, my bracket is happy for once, it looks like the ASV will probably be enough to push Riku over Hayabusa.
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creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 11:17:26 AM | message detail
Going by the morning and the last few updates, this could be getting ugly for Ryu soon.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/18/2007 11:19:09 AM | message detail
just find it funny that people are giving Lara no chance, when she put 45% on Chun-Li, who is no doubt well above Akuma >_>

If Chun's above Akuma, it's probably not by much.

And Lara also nearly lost to Wesker, which is pretty pathetic. I mean, Wesker was nearly doubled by Kefka of all people.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/18/2007 11:19:34 AM | message detail
Well, in hochi's defense, look at Riku/Roxas. That looked to have been epically brutal.

Well it was also 2 people from the eaxct same game >_>
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RPGGamer0 | Posted 10/18/2007 11:22:39 AM | message detail
Man, I can't wait for Riku to come back. I like Ryu more, but my bracket needs double greens.

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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/18/2007 11:23:33 AM | message detail
Because it's not like Squall, Sora and Aeris were all in the same game, or anything.
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Warsola | Posted 10/18/2007 11:24:18 AM | message detail
And Lara also nearly lost to Wesker, which is pretty pathetic. I mean, Wesker was nearly doubled by Kefka of all people.

Auron did FAR worse on Pyramid Head than Bowser did! Clearly this means Bowser is going to get first in his match!
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RPGGamer0 | Posted 10/18/2007 11:25:10 AM | message detail
Because it's not like Squall, Sora and Aeris were all in the same game, or anything.

Yeah, KH/KHII, but I'm pretty sure Squall and Aeris are better known for VIII and VII.

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Warsola | Posted 10/18/2007 11:26:06 AM | message detail
KH/KHII moved Squall from 34% on a weaker Snake to 43% on post-Brawl Snake.
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Warsola | Posted 10/18/2007 11:26:33 AM | message detail
...and you know what I mean by post-Brawl >_>
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smitelf | Posted 10/18/2007 11:28:09 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
smitelf | Posted 10/18/2007 11:29:40 AM | message detail
Grammar would like to have a word with my last post <<

Yeah, KH/KHII, but I'm pretty sure Squall and Aeris are better known for VIII and VII.

Squall did get a significant boost from his KH appearance, though. I doubt Aeris got much out of it, but Squall was badass (though maybe it would help him more if he'd actually been called Squall in the game instead of Leon).
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/18/2007 11:30:54 AM | message detail
Uh, you do realise that Wesker was almost TRIPLED by Kefka right? Tripled, not doubled. Get it right.
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RPGGamer0 | Posted 10/18/2007 11:32:48 AM | message detail
I know he got a big boost with KH, but there's still a huge userbase difference between Squall and Aeris IMO.

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The Real Truth | Posted 10/18/2007 11:32:55 AM | message detail
I don't think Lara stands a chance. I think the only reason she did well last year was because it was 1vs1. It seemed to me it was like, well do we vote for Lara or the other guy, *Votes for Lara.* I mean, she barely beat out Wesker didn't she? And we know how well he does in these things.
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smitelf | Posted 10/18/2007 11:34:15 AM | message detail
Observations about this match:

1. I think we can all safely say that Snake is now >43 on BL? :)

2. Riku is probably still > Ryu H., but he's dropped, and Ryu has probably risen a bit, but not a whole lot.

3. SFF/LFF/whatever you're calling it has been reaaaaly underestimated in general. There's no way Riku could be where he is now against Ryu unless a) Ryu is getting really SFFed somehow, or b) Riku was absurdly SFFed in round 1 - like > 80% of Roxas's votes would have gone to him, and a hell of a lot of Haseo's too.
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RPGGamer0 | Posted 10/18/2007 11:36:08 AM | message detail
Dammit, Riku, you're going the wrong way!

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smitelf | Posted 10/18/2007 11:36:23 AM | message detail
I know he got a big boost with KH, but there's still a huge userbase difference between Squall and Aeris IMO.

I don't think the difference is that big, but probably larger than the difference between Squall and Sora, which is Sora's problem. Aeris has proven that she can stand up reasonably well to Squall, but Sora could easily fold.
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/18/2007 11:36:35 AM | message detail
13% for Nightmare? Amazing, amzing stuff. Excellent performace from a midcard at least. Perhaps more.
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TheOmegaMetroid | Posted 10/18/2007 11:36:54 AM | message detail
I'm not even going to say it...

*(backs away slowly)*
voltch | Posted 10/18/2007 11:38:30 AM | message detail
how riku's votes compare to the last round?
and if he's incresed what's the difference between him and roxas?
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/18/2007 11:40:48 AM | message detail
... Big Ryu gain there.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2007 11:43:26 AM | message detail
...don't tell me...
creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 11:43:50 AM | message detail
smitelf
(though maybe it would help him more if he'd actually been called Squall in the game instead of Leon).

I didn't even think of that. If he had actually been called Squall...hmmm. The boost would've been at least slightly bigger, possibly significantly so.

1. I think we can all safely say that Snake is now >43 on BL? :)

Well I don't use BL anymore, I put him at 38%-40% on Link, with Samus at 40%. But either A) Samus/Snake is looking more and more fishy as times goes by, B) Snake increased since last year, C) Snake is better with this format, or some combination.

b) Riku was absurdly SFFed in round 1 - like > 80% of Roxas's votes would have gone to him, and a hell of a lot of Haseo's too.

Isn't this what you thought too though?

Aeris has proven that she can stand up reasonably well to Squall, but Sora could easily fold

I agree. KH basically meant little for Aeris, so that's all VII/VIII overlap, which might cause leeching but should favor either. Squall/Sora SFF could be very much in Squall's favor. Also we've seen Aeris SFF Sora before due to pure Square SFF. I think Sora has the most downside in that match. But even though Sora has the most downside, I still think it's unlikely for Lara to move above him.


RPGgamer0
Dammit, Riku, you're going the wrong way!

Now that's not what I expected.
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smitelf | Posted 10/18/2007 11:56:14 AM | message detail
Well I don't use BL anymore, I put him at 38%-40% on Link, with Samus at 40%. But either A) Samus/Snake is looking more and more fishy as times goes by, B) Snake increased since last year, C) Snake is better with this format, or some combination.

My vote is for some combination. MGS characters have definitely been doing better in this format in general, so Snake is benefiting slightly from that, but I don't see that as enough to justify this absurdly good performance. I don't know what to think of Samus vs. Snake. I think some sort of bump by Snake has to be factored in for this to make any sense, though.

Isn't this what you thought too though?

Yeah, but I thought Ryu might still pull off an unclean victory (I think my Oracle prediction had him winning by .3%), but even that's not looking likely.

But even though Sora has the most downside, I still think it's unlikely for Lara to move above him.

I'm honestly not sure after the SFF tomfoolery we've been witnessing so far. With two characters there to SFF Sora, it really wouldn't surprise me if Lara, the only non-RPG character of the bunch, managed to do pretty well for herself.
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Lopen | Posted 10/18/2007 11:57:14 AM | message detail
I don't think Riku has this match at all, the X-Box day vote is much stronger than the morning vote and if Master Chief is any indication the 6-7 block just annihilates X-Box characters and Riku would've won that by default. (And most of his damage was done there)

I'm tellin ya, Hayabusa wins the ASV. Bank on it!
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/18/2007 11:57:15 AM | message detail
...You're ****ing kidding me.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2007 11:58:46 AM | message detail
What an unbelievable buzz kill this would be.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2007 11:58:56 AM | message detail
Ryu taking off with the pre-ASV.

TuRtLe
~~~
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smitelf | Posted 10/18/2007 12:00:40 PM | message detail
Okay, my little brother just got home, it's ASV time.
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/18/2007 12:00:50 PM | message detail
Ah, good. Faith in humanity (and my bracket) lost once again. Darn you Ryu. =/
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/18/2007 12:01:24 PM | message detail
The people with horrible taste has arrived, another potential close match is over thanks to the Kingdom Hearts kids...
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/18/2007 12:01:43 PM | message detail
Riku just took Ryu's huge update back. Hopefully it means he's about to get in gear.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2007 12:02:18 PM | message detail
XD

smitelf's little brother was the key this whole time! smitelf, tell him to get detention on days where we want the night character to win.
creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 12:02:19 PM | message detail
It's amazing the swings in confidence here.

Before the contest, Riku is a big favorite. Then before the 1st round match it's a toss-up. Then after that match, Ryu is a huge favorite here. But in the first few minutes of this match Riku looks real good. Then Ryu starts looking great overnight. Then in the morning Riku looks great. Now it's Ryu again based on the last 15 minutes! But wait, it's Riku again based on the last update!

If this contest had a stock market, prices between these two would be going all over the place.
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Lopen | Posted 10/18/2007 12:03:00 PM | message detail
Stop signaling the death bells for Ryu, all that happened there was he lost his massive gain. If it happens two, three times in a row I'm worried. But for now I'm confident mighty X-Box shall crush the Kingdom.
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/18/2007 12:03:14 PM | message detail
XD you are so right that it the truth hurts...
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creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 12:03:43 PM | message detail
Oh, and even if Ryu decisively loses the ASV (which isn't clear yet), he could still decisively win the evening vote.

Crazy ass match.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2007 12:04:20 PM | message detail
I'm not feeling particularly confident about anything. I'm just amazed that we found the After School Messiah.
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