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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 524

Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/18/2007 8:50:17 AM | message detail
That's true, but MC and Riku are totally different. Riku had a mediocre day vote on a weekend while similar Axel had an awesome one on a weekday(With Samus there, as well, which is just ridiculous). How Ryu will fare is more of a question.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2007 8:53:01 AM | message detail
Awesome cut. If Riku keeps Ryu's gains at a minimum and throw in his own cut every once in a while, this lead might not even be at 500 when the after school vote hits. If the trends hold, 500 is nothing. Of course, the key word there is if.
SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/18/2007 8:54:53 AM | message detail
Stalls are all well and good but Riku will need to make gains if he wants to win IMHO
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2007 8:56:02 AM | message detail
This is not a house of madness, Smurf. Please take your ridiculous theories elsewhere.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2007 9:02:20 AM | message detail
Riku from 3 PM to the end last round: 27.66% to 27.24% (-0.42%)
Roxas from 3 PM to the end of last round: 17.63% to 17.67% (+0.04%)
Riku+Roxas from 3 PM to the end of last round: 45.29% to 44.91% (-0.38%)
Hayabusa from 3 PM to the end of last round: 45.46% to 45.8% (+0.34%)


Of course, that was a weekend, but it looked like Roxas faired obviously better with the day-vote than Riku did...and Riku went down with it, going against our previous trends we thought. Hayabusa almost gained as much as Riku/Roxas lost together though, and Riku was the weak link in that day-vote duo...

...can't stress enough that was a weekend, but if that carries over to this match at all, then Hayabusa should be okay. Throw in the added potential trend-repeat that -- as already mentioned -- Riku's worst two hours and Hayabusa's two best hours were the last two hours of the poll...

...I'm not going to say I'm comfortable with Hayabusa right now, but I'd rather have him than Riku.
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swirIdude | Posted 10/18/2007 9:04:00 AM | message detail
Smurf is causing controversy!
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Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2007 9:13:13 AM | message detail
Oh, and I know my last post doesn't fully respect how powerful we've seen the day-vote for KH before, but it was more to show off in relation with Hayabusa and Riku since they've been in a match together. Riku could do much better than that...but if you go by their relationship alone from their last match, Hayabusa should do THAT much better. If Hayabusa is more like MC and has a day-vote that's almost as good on weekends as it is on weekdays while KH's seems to be more like a weekday-specific power, then Hayabusa could be **** in afew hours. Just depends.
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swirIdude | Posted 10/18/2007 9:14:14 AM | message detail
Nightmare has been gaining percentage these last few updates...do I smell a COMEBACK!??! We've seen Soul Calibur nearly beat Kingdom Hearts!
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Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/18/2007 9:14:45 AM | message detail
Okami is going to the Wii. What does this mean for Ammy? <_<
swirIdude | Posted 10/18/2007 9:15:07 AM | message detail
Absolutely nothing. She's only in Round 3 due to fortunate bracket placement.
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Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2007 9:17:10 AM | message detail
Okami's a game that just HAD to be on the Wii at some point. Good for Ammy...one day. When's it coming out?
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swirIdude | Posted 10/18/2007 9:17:53 AM | message detail
2008! Yay for specifics!
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Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
BDawg | Posted 10/18/2007 9:21:48 AM | message detail
I believe Hayabusa will do better in the afternoon than the morning....but he can barely build his lead now. I see no way this puny lead can hold back the tide of Kingdom Hearts.
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ZFS | Posted 10/18/2007 9:29:42 AM | message detail
Whoa. I didn't expect Riku to keep it so close after he gave up the lead early last night. Given the KH day vote, Riku's probably looking really good right now. Hayabusa isn't any slouch with it, but with only a 300 vote lead, it isn't going to take much for him to go down.


Hayabusa goes from beating Riku and Roxas combined to looking like he's going to lose here -- aww yeah this contest

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Haste_2 | Posted 10/18/2007 9:41:15 AM | message detail
About last night... Riku and Hayabusa are locks over Alucard? No way. Look how badly they're being owned by Snake here. In the end they won't be much stronger relative to Snake than Nightmare was last round (note that I feel Nightmare's underperforming this round for similar reasons as Shadow the hedgehog). I'd probably call Alucard about even with Riku and Hayabusa.

Also, sc2k5.com seems to be down. Oh, and all this time I forgot that their Round 1 match was on a weekend... I guess it's not hopeless for Riku, then. Granted, it seems like X-Box characters would be more potent afterschool than before school... then again, Riku's advantage in the morning was massive.

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HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2007 9:43:40 AM | message detail
I guess Solid > Riku isn't SO outlandish, even after last round. I know Hayabusa beat Riku+Roxas combined and would almost certainly beat Riku head-to-head...but I doubt he wins by a whole lot, and I also imagine KH fans are more hardcore than NG fans. Then, if you assume Solid/Sora was solely because of the picture and/or acknowledge Sora only had KH and KH:CoM at the time while KH2 is out now, then that would explain Riku holding up in Solid's presence. You could also say Solid is hurting Hayabusa if some kind of bad-ass SFF exists...

...but look at all the circumstances we have to go through. I think I'm with you guys; this contest's just wacky.
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BesaidGuy | Posted 10/18/2007 9:45:10 AM | message detail
I missed some MC discussion...and, this is redundant by now, but I'm more scared of him than anything else in my bracket. I've already got him in first place for every match up to when he faces Solid and Sonic (alongside Ganon!), but not any further...and MC's as capable as anybody to take a Noble Niner down in this bracket. Solid and Sonic are going to split SSBB-hype (and if Ganon or even Luigi makes it there, that hhurts their Nintendo support a bit more), MC's fanbase has been long speculated to be the most independent and hardcore, he's got the most recent huge game, and his match this round impressed me much more than what Sonic did last year...and I'm reserving judgment on how it compares to Solid's match today until later in the match.

There's a sliver of a chance MC gets first that match. Not a chance I want to take, but I really wish I had him advancing to the championship.....



This is exactly what I have been thinking. Snake and Sonic splitting SSBB hype and Ganondorf stealing even more of it.


This is why I am glad I DO have Master Chief in the championship

Believe
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swirIdude | Posted 10/18/2007 9:47:31 AM | message detail
What if Master Chief wins the contest? Could Link/Cloud split the "GameFAQs fan" vote, allowing the dedicated MC fanbase to get him a big win?
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Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
Haste_2 | Posted 10/18/2007 9:49:33 AM | message detail
Well, if Riku takes 90% of Roxas' votes and like 74% of Haseo's, Riku is equal to Hayabusa. Also, I expected Riku to have more dilligent fans than Hayabusa, anyway. I don't think this is strange at all... second place should've always been considered a toss-up.

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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/18/2007 9:51:16 AM | message detail
I still say Ammy should return next year based on sheer principal. If anything, we have a new Vyse/Laharl to test certain characters out.
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The Real Truth | Posted 10/18/2007 9:53:49 AM | message detail
lol @ MC winning the contest
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2007 9:54:46 AM | message detail
I'd give MC a legit (yet still tiny) shot at getting 3rd in the championship...which would be absolutely amazing for the guy. Solid and Sonic should be battling over SSBB-excitement. If Luigi or Ganondorf gets to the Noble Niners alongside MC, they're going to make it all the more difficult for Solid/Sonic. If Luigi and Ganon hurt each other too much, Yuna's going to eliminate those threats next round and makes it all the easier for him. If MC's fanbase is as hardcore as we give it credit for, it isn't going to budge very easily.

As somebody's pointed out time and time again (creativename, I think?), MC just needs to hope he doesn't fall against legends.
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consolefreak | Posted 10/18/2007 9:55:58 AM | message detail
Funny how after all this time in the contest, and them having very different brackets, I'm right behind my speed bracket :d

Anyway, I'm honestly dumbfounded by this result. No way I can give this a credible explanation. Badass SFF? Reduced Xbox360 traffic (Halo 3 board during Ryu/Riku/Roxas/Haseo : 244 pages compared to now 64)? Vote stuffing since it's obvious Riku has a chance here? You got me. Very surprising result. Awesome though for my brackets.

And Master Chief > Sonic due to Ganondorf is definitely a possibility, but him > Cloud due to Snake is not something I see happening any time soon.

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176/232. Today : Snake > Riku. Tomorrow : Squall > Aeris
*One_Winged_Ange*
The Real Truth | Posted 10/18/2007 9:57:59 AM | message detail
MC isn't coming close to 3rd. SSBB may have given SS a boost, but you're acting as if every vote he gets is because of Brawl. SS would still be doing close to what he's doing today if he wasn't announced for Brawl.
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/18/2007 10:06:46 AM | message detail
Riku was a lot stronger than Hayabusa last year. Regardless of how Round 1 looked, that alone should've caused at least some consideration that Riku could beat Hayabusa this round.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
consolefreak | Posted 10/18/2007 10:09:32 AM | message detail
If Luigi and Ganon hurt each other too much, Yuna's going to eliminate those threats next round and makes it all the easier for him.

Master Chief has a lot better of a chance to beat Sonic with Ganon in the poll than he has to beat Snake with Yuna. Ganodorf and Luigi are not threats for the Chief, he needs them.
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176/232. Today : Snake > Riku. Tomorrow : Squall > Aeris
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BesaidGuy | Posted 10/18/2007 10:10:23 AM | message detail
While Master Chief has a small and slight chance of taking first against Ganondorf/Snake/Sonic due to possible SFF from SSBB.

But in the championship, he has NO CHANCE of taking 3rd. His percentage will be close because Link is gonna drop like 45%.

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HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2007 10:10:39 AM | message detail
There's no doubt he had very legit strength before Brawl -- he's been a Noble Niner ever since the first contest for a reason. Same goes for Sonic, wherever he's at now that Brawl's announced him. I'm just saying that it cannot be doubted SSBB helped Solid last year...a lot. People are trying to argue whether SSBB will help Sonic or not, and I think it will. For people who have been affected by the excitement of SSBB (and after seeing Solid last year and Ike this year, I don't think it can be argued whether it happens or not), I think they're going to clash...

...but what I think you're ignoring here is that I feel like MC is legit in this format. I wouldn't take MC over Solid or Sonic head-to-head, but in this format MC has shown he is beastly. In a MC/Solid-or-Sonic/random/random match, MC would already put up a good stand against either of those two. Now, when it's MC/Solid/Sonic/random, that makes MC's chances look all the better. If his fanbase doesn't budge much to legends and if Solid and Sonic hurt each other at all, MC's got a great chance to upset somebody.
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consolefreak | Posted 10/18/2007 10:11:14 AM | message detail
Riku was a lot stronger than Hayabusa last year. Regardless of how Round 1 looked, that alone should've caused at least some consideration that Riku could beat Hayabusa this round.

Yeah but that doesn't make this match any less weird, considering the 1st round.

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176/232. Today : Snake > Riku. Tomorrow : Squall > Aeris
*One_Winged_Ange*
The Real Truth | Posted 10/18/2007 10:17:40 AM | message detail
HaRRicH
Posted 10/18/2007 10:10:39 AM

...but what I think you're ignoring here is that I feel like MC is legit in this format. I wouldn't take MC over Solid or Sonic head-to-head, but in this format MC has shown he is beastly. In a MC/Solid-or-Sonic/random/random match, MC would already put up a good stand against either of those two. Now, when it's MC/Solid/Sonic/random, that makes MC's chances look all the better. If his fanbase doesn't budge much to legends and if Solid and Sonic hurt each other at all, MC's got a great chance to upset somebody.


Look at how well Hayabusa did last round. I'm not saying MC will drop that much, but I'm betting something similar will happen.
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creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 10:23:46 AM | message detail
Riku looking very good here! Good stuff.

Looks like I was wrong about the overnight vote making this out of reach for Riku.

transcience
07:00 | 49.39% | 13.66% | 16.47% | 20.48%
08:00 | 48.72% | 13.89% | 16.64% | 20.75%


Diz-amn.

KH day vote making Hayabusa look like Alucard!

I think we may have a good shot at seeing a last hour Hayabusa comeback in this match.


Dilated Chemist
I would agree with you if he hadn't finished with 57% of the votes. It's hard not to lose percentage when you're up by that much.

It's as easy to gain %age at that point as it is to lose %age. Just think of any Link match - any character he's getting 90+% against overnight, he'll very likely rise in the day. I have no idea why people have this notion of it being harder to rise with trends when already at a high percentage - it is as clearly false as can be.


Lightning Strikes
Mac, Riku's last match was on a weekend. Therefore, since the weekend morning is similar in trend to the weekday day, Ryu's going to get killed.

I didn't realize that! I guess that's why Ryu looked so good compared to Riku/Roxas with it.

Looking more and more like Riku will at least take the lead here, though it's highly uncertain if he can hold it. Because if the ASV is more in favor of Riku, the evening vote might well be more exaggerated towards Ryu. The ASV vote is still probably the key though, I think.

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FakeAlexShelley | Posted 10/18/2007 10:27:42 AM | message detail
Master Chief's Fanbase>Ryu's


Ryu looked great in that first round because of ridiculous SFF and him being the only badass in that poll.

Then he went up against other badasses and and only 1 KH character and got his ass put into place.


Also, did all the Oracle people predict Snake THIS DAMN HIGH? I expected like 43-44%. I check the poll this morning and I see THAT!

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BDawg | Posted 10/18/2007 10:29:00 AM | message detail
I just hope after the semis Chief will hold a press conference where he says "They were who we thought they were, and we let 'em off the hook!"
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creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 10:29:10 AM | message detail
Haste2
About last night... Riku and Hayabusa are locks over Alucard? No way.

I don't think they're locks, but I don't see how Alucard is stronger than Riku. Riku would be a big favorite over him one-on-one, and he's also probably stronger in this format too.

In the end they won't be much stronger relative to Snake than Nightmare was last round (note that I feel Nightmare's underperforming this round for similar reasons as Shadow the hedgehog).

Interesting comparison to Shadow there...what are these "similar reasons" though? Just being the weakest character?


Harrich
and I also imagine KH fans are more hardcore than NG fans.

Uh. What??

Maybe you mean "loyal" instead of hardcore - obviously KH fans are not more hardcore gamers! :)

...but look at all the circumstances we have to go through. I think I'm with you guys; this contest's just wacky.

Some of it is wackiness, but many, including me, said before this match for people not to be too surprised if Riku was hanging tight. Again, we thought he was fairly likely to get well over 80+% of Roxas' votes, and also more of Haseo's. Along with the potential badasSFF hurting Ryu, and discounting any particular Snake/Riku overlap (as while Riku is probably performing worse in this format relative to Snake than he would 1-on-1, that's more likely the format than actual SFF; Snake/Sora was always more likely pic factor than overlap - and Snake is one of the most pic-sensitive guys we've ever seen), Riku had a shot.


Haste2
Well, if Riku takes 90% of Roxas' votes and like 74% of Haseo's, Riku is equal to Hayabusa. Also, I expected Riku to have more dilligent fans than Hayabusa, anyway. I don't think this is strange at all... second place should've always been considered a toss-up.

I don't know about toss-up, that's going too far. Ryu had to be the favorite with how he won last round.


Harrich
I'd give MC a legit (yet still tiny) shot at getting 3rd in the championship

Snake in this format makes MC in this format look like weaksauce, so no.

Not much in this contest is a true lock, and that isn't either, but I don't see how anyone could argue reasonably for Chief beating out Snake. Massive Halo rallies/homepage linkage at big Halo sites are pretty much the only argument to be made. Also, Chief's shot at just getting there is under 50%.

As somebody's pointed out time and time again (creativename, I think?), MC just needs to hope he doesn't fall against legends.

No, that was somebody else, though I thought it was a good point. Despite everyone saying he's "hardcore", Chief's fanbase is probably among the most casual we've ever seen.
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creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 10:33:12 AM | message detail
SS would still be doing close to what he's doing today if he wasn't announced for Brawl.

Nah, he'd be doing considerably weaker today.


but in this format MC has shown he is beastly.

And Snake has still been way more impressive in this format.


Also, did all the Oracle people predict Snake THIS DAMN HIGH?

No, Snake is doing ridiculous here. I think the consensus was probably 42%-44%.
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creativename | Posted 10/18/2007 10:39:04 AM | message detail
When is Street Fighter 4 coming out?

Ryu's already pretty tough, despite being out of the limelight so long. That could be huge for him. And hopefully it means we see Ken again! In fact, anyone think post-SF4 Ken might not be too far away from where Ryu is now? I don't think he could equal modern Ryu even after SF4, but he might not be too far below.
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transience | Posted 10/18/2007 10:40:07 AM | message detail
the trailer has Ryu and Ken in a very cool fight scene.
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transience | Posted 10/18/2007 10:40:30 AM | message detail
oh, I guess you mean see Ken in the contest. nevermind!
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/18/2007 10:43:38 AM | message detail
Erm...MC isn't even a lock to win in Ganon/MC/Dante/Leon, especially if there is some sort of "casual SFF" against him. And Snake could crush him pretty hard when they meet. I mean, MC's certainly more of a favorite than he was, but there aren't any guarantees.

Ryu's already pretty tough, despite being out of the limelight so long. That could be huge for him. And hopefully it means we see Ken again! In fact, anyone think post-SF4 Ken might not be too far away from where Ryu is now? I don't think he could equal modern Ryu even after SF4, but he might not be too far below.

Meh, given how small SF3 was, I doubt SF4 will do too much.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/18/2007 10:46:11 AM | message detail
Well considering Street Fighter 3 was released on the Dreamcast that's probably understandable

Being on a dying system that already has freaking Soul Calibur isn't going to do you any favors.
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hochiminh155 | Posted 10/18/2007 10:46:20 AM | message detail
Riku is going to pull a Kairi in a couple hours with the ASV
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2007 10:46:45 AM | message detail
Master Chief has a lot better of a chance to beat Sonic with Ganon in the poll than he has to beat Snake with Yuna. Ganodorf and Luigi are not threats for the Chief, he needs them.

True, though Ganon might also be stronger than Dante or some others in this format. It would be a stronger third opponent, though MC's not aiming for third.


Look at how well Hayabusa did last round. I'm not saying MC will drop that much, but I'm betting something similar will happen.

Possibly, but I'd take Yuna > Riku, Alucard > Roxas, and Liquid >>> Haseo.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/18/2007 10:46:59 AM | message detail
Looks like Hayabusa might be pushing 600 votes by the time the afterschool vote hits. His morning vote suggests that won't be nearly enough, however, XBox characters tend to have a merely average morning compared to a strong day, so it might be enough to hang on after all.

(As an example, here's Master Chief's first match - the second was on a weekend)
Time | Master Chief
06:00 | 35.17%
Morning Vote starts
07:00 | 41.12%
08:00 | 42.99%
...
14:00 | 43.16%
15:00 | 45.73%
Afterschool Vote starts (actually, around 2:30)
16:00 | 50.22%
17:00 | 51.11%
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/18/2007 10:49:45 AM | message detail
Well Sora also did about 4% better in the ASV than in the morning with his match
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transience | Posted 10/18/2007 10:50:18 AM | message detail
eh, Sora *destroyed* Hayabusa in the daytime back when. Riku did crazy things to Yoshi, who would also take Hayabusa in the day. this is Riku's match to lose.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2007 10:52:06 AM | message detail
Over 500, but Riku is really making Hayabusa fight for most of these updates.
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/18/2007 10:53:35 AM | message detail
Yeah, it's over. Riku wins. On to tomorrows match AKA the 800 pound chimpanzee in the room. Why does nobody think Lara can win? We've never had a SFF of this extreme before. Bowser/Mewtwo/Ryu was close but Toad and Mewtwo aren't as strong as Sora and Aeris.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/18/2007 10:55:41 AM | message detail
If it was 3 Nintendo characters of that strength I would take Lara. I think Square SFF tends to be slightly less brutal. Slightly less brutal enough so that 2nd place beats out Lara by a couple percent most likely. Maybe a bit more if things go well. Maybe less if things don't.
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hochiminh155 | Posted 10/18/2007 10:58:23 AM | message detail
In most circumstances, yes. But look what Squall did to Aeris last round. Akuma nearly beat Aeris WITHOUT Sora. It's also prudent to assume Akuma = Lara. Also remember what Aeris did to Sora in 2003 and hell, just look at Snake/Sora. Sora absolutely COLLAPSES under SFF situations. And looking at last match, apparently Aeris does too
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/18/2007 10:58:44 AM | message detail
Thanks to the SFF, Lara has a great shot at getting third. But after her poor showing last match, there's no way she's getting second.
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