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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 524

Ngamer64 | Posted 10/18/2007 12:06:31 AM | message detail
Yeah, he was seen in one of those IGN videos last week, so we knew at that point if you followed closely. But now everyone knows! Not that he could have topped Ammy or anything, but I think Brawl hype could have kept him closer.

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Lopen | Posted 10/18/2007 12:07:54 AM | message detail
He doesn't have to be bad with it to lose 4-5% to two day vote beasts. And it's not like he looked so great with it last round... he gave up over half a % to Nightmare.

Not saying that's bad but it's not something to hang on your refrigerator either.
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Draco1214 | Posted 10/18/2007 12:09:01 AM | message detail
Hayabusa's far from a day vote beast. Who did he actually win it against? Jill Valentine?
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Kaxon | Posted 10/18/2007 12:15:47 AM | message detail
Last year, if you peg Samus at 40% on Link, CATS works out to 13%.

This year, using Morgoth's formula and pegging Sephiroth at 43.5% on Link, CATS works out to 13.13%. So no.


Although CATS did avoid FFF, which has affected so many other people this year (including Nightmare today).
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/18/2007 12:19:22 AM | message detail
Hayabusa's far from a day vote beast. Who did he actually win it against? Jill Valentine?

Riku on the other hand, won it over Frog, clearly he's a dayvote beast :P

I don't think anything will happen today. Hayabusa will just continue to slowly increase the lead.
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Draco1214 | Posted 10/18/2007 12:20:39 AM | message detail
Riku on the other hand, won it over Frog, clearly he's a dayvote beast :P

He won it decisively over Yoshi.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/18/2007 12:21:48 AM | message detail
Riku holding up very well so far. Things are looking up for him
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 10/18/2007 12:24:12 AM | message detail
He doesn't have to be bad with it to lose 4-5% to two day vote beasts. And it's not like he looked so great with it last round... he gave up over half a % to Nightmare.

Not saying that's bad but it's not something to hang on your refrigerator either.


I would agree with you if he hadn't finished with 57% of the votes. It's hard not to lose percentage when you're up by that much.

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Lopen | Posted 10/18/2007 12:24:17 AM | message detail
He gained 1% against Dante and Zero with it too. Dante maybe isn't that impressive. Zero is nothing to scoff at though.

Okay maybe that's not beastly, but it's better than anything Snake has shown to do with it.
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Kaxon | Posted 10/18/2007 12:24:49 AM | message detail
And Snake breaks 50%.
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The Real Truth | Posted 10/18/2007 12:34:36 AM | message detail
HaRRicH
Posted 10/17/2007 11:11:25 PM
message detail I missed some MC discussion...and, this is redundant by now, but I'm more scared of him than anything else in my bracket. I've already got him in first place for every match up to when he faces Solid and Sonic (alongside Ganon!), but not any further...and MC's as capable as anybody to take a Noble Niner down in this bracket. Solid and Sonic are going to split SSBB-hype (and if Ganon or even Luigi makes it there, that hhurts their Nintendo support a bit more), MC's fanbase has been long speculated to be the most independent and hardcore, he's got the most recent huge game, and his match this round impressed me much more than what Sonic did last year...and I'm reserving judgment on how it compares to Solid's match today until later in the match.

There's a sliver of a chance MC gets first that match. Not a chance I want to take, but I really wish I had him advancing to the championship.....


You say that like Brawl hype is the only reason Sonic and Snake are popular.
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Heroic_Vyers | Posted 10/18/2007 12:36:35 AM | message detail
It is a reason for their recent boosts, especially Snake's, and in this four way format, they will need all the help they can get.

-SC
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 10/18/2007 12:47:51 AM | message detail
I can't wait til Snake owns MC. Hard.

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Gaddswell | Posted 10/18/2007 1:55:42 AM | message detail
Well this hour was nothing but a complete stall.
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AmazingKirby | Posted 10/18/2007 3:00:26 AM | message detail
And this hour was a 35 vote cut by Riku.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/18/2007 3:03:54 AM | message detail
Unless Ryu does something and fast, this won't even be a contest in the after school vote; Riku'll have him done in an hour and a half, at most.
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/18/2007 3:30:12 AM | message detail
Riku's starting to get going now!
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/18/2007 3:57:16 AM | message detail
Certainly a strange trend so far. Riku started turning things around at about 4am for some reason. Reminds me a bit of Liquid/Alucard.
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/18/2007 4:18:40 AM | message detail
Kratos made similar cuts at this time yesterday, stopping a the end of this hour.

He cut 272 votes, and Riku seems to be going a tad faster. So...he might keep Ryu at under 100 going into the school vote, which is really going to help him.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2007 4:45:22 AM | message detail
This is Riku's match to lose.

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2007 4:53:20 AM | message detail
Wow.

Go Riku I guess. Either way, I'm a happy camper.

TuRtLe
~~~
181/232 in the contest. Next pick: Snake > Riku
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transience | Posted 10/18/2007 4:57:33 AM | message detail
*wakes up*

what
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 10/18/2007 5:09:58 AM | message detail
okay... this match *should* be Riku's. I have utterly no idea why, but hey, whatever. Hayabusa's got that during-school vote to try and pad his lead, but I don't think he's going to make it big enough. Riku cut 300 votes in the before-school period. the day vote probably gives him another 1500 or so.

my first thought is that Kratos has a better chance in round 3 because Kratos and Ryu will have a closer fanbase split. Riku may be on the PS2, but that doesn't mean he's similar to Kratos. Ryu, Dante and Kratos are all from the same type of game. it's like Mario and Sonic in a match together.
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xyzzy
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/18/2007 5:17:59 AM | message detail
From Lady Ashe Posted 10/18/2007 12:31:04 AM #229
yesssssssss a good update now i can go to sleep and wake up to riku decimating everyone with the before school vote. =/

'lol'
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transience | Posted 10/18/2007 5:20:56 AM | message detail
actually, now that I think about it, xbox tends to have an average morning and a good day. Ryu probably does better during the daytime. he probably builds this to ~800 votes or so, too. we'll see what happens here.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 10/18/2007 5:28:07 AM | message detail
Time .| Snake| Nightmare| Hayabusa | Riku
01:00 | 48.64% | 13.42% | 19.30% | 18.64%
02:00 | 50.10% | 12.32% | 20.68% | 16.90%
03:00 | 51.24% | 12.34% | 19.22% | 17.20%
04:00 | 51.66% | 13.24% | 18.35% | 16.75%
05:00 | 52.02% | 12.48% | 18.24% | 17.27%
06:00 | 51.46% | 12.81% | 17.07% | 18.66%
07:00 | 49.39% | 13.66% | 16.47% | 20.48%
08:00 | 48.72% | 13.89% | 16.64% | 20.75%

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xyzzy
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2007 5:29:17 AM | message detail
hold me
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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
charmander6000 | Posted 10/18/2007 5:59:15 AM | message detail
Come on Hayabusa don't lose now.
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Match 46: Solid Snake > Ryu H Points: 165/232
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2007 6:04:49 AM | message detail
Come on Hayabusa, lose now!

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/18/2007 6:19:31 AM | message detail
tag KB
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/18/2007 6:28:14 AM | message detail
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/17/2007 10:55:58 PM | message detail
Well, in the last match, the peak difference between the two was at 4:00 AM. Riku gained about .7% from that point and Ryu lost about .4%...so it's not as if the day vote will change things all that much, but Ryu still doesn't have long to build his lead.


aww yeah trends going the same as last time.

...but last time, Riku ended up worse than what he has now, and Ryu ended up better. Darn you ASV/evening vote...
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2007 6:29:27 AM | message detail
ASV ftw.

Usually it sucks but whatever.

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Janus5000 | Posted 10/18/2007 6:35:35 AM | message detail
...Wasn't Ryu/Riku's last match on a weekend?
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Who Cares? | Posted 10/18/2007 6:41:24 AM | message detail
Yep, their first match was on a Sunday
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helferty101 | Posted 10/18/2007 7:00:09 AM | message detail
Ah, that's more like it. Snake dropping when the sun comes up. Finally some degree of sanity in this contest.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/18/2007 7:00:18 AM | message detail
...huh. Riku stands a better shot, then. Strange how similar the trends have been so far. I'll try and post hourlies when I get to school.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2007 7:28:17 AM | message detail
Win, lose, or draw, you're the biggest proof that this contest is complete wackiness (and very fun wackiness at that). I should have had more faith in you, Riku!

I SEARCHED FOR YOU. I SEARCHED EVERYWHERE.
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swirIdude | Posted 10/18/2007 7:29:25 AM | message detail
Ryu Hayabusa is at his best position since 7:15.
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/18/2007 8:02:42 AM | message detail
As long as Riku doesn't let this get near 1000, I think he has this.
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transience | Posted 10/18/2007 8:11:06 AM | message detail
Ryu can't extend his lead?

game
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xyzzy
Master Moltar | Posted 10/18/2007 8:15:43 AM | message detail
KINGDOM STALL

darn you riku
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Snake/Nightmare/Ryu/Riku - Bracket: Snake > Riku - Vote: Nightmare (191/232)
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/18/2007 8:16:58 AM | message detail
Time | Haseo | Riku | Roxas | Ryu
01:00 | 10.01% | 27.56% | 17.47% | 44.96%
02:00 | 09.90% | 26.77% | 16.99% | 46.34%
03:00 | 10.58% | 26.05% | 16.80% | 46.57%
04:00 | 11.12% | 25.01% | 16.45% | 47.42%
05:00 | 09.40% | 26.46% | 18.20% | 45.94%
06:00 | 09.27% | 28.65% | 17.02% | 45.06%
07:00 | 08.07% | 28.01% | 17.25% | 46.67%
08:00 | 08.13% | 29.72% | 17.53% | 44.62%
09:00 | 09.62% | 28.45% | 19.28% | 42.65%
10:00 | 09.04% | 29.05% | 17.83% | 44.07%
11:00 | 08.27% | 28.51% | 18.46% | 44.76%
12:00 | 07.90% | 28.61% | 17.66% | 45.82%
13:00 | 08.57% | 27.42% | 18.11% | 45.90%
14:00 | 08.44% | 28.45% | 17.66% | 45.45%
15:00 | 08.97% | 27.60% | 17.66% | 45.77%
16:00 | 09.26% | 25.28% | 18.34% | 47.12%
17:00 | 09.36% | 26.97% | 17.89% | 45.79%
18:00 | 10.17% | 26.52% | 18.66% | 44.65%
19:00 | 09.19% | 26.52% | 18.05% | 46.23%
20:00 | 09.13% | 28.31% | 16.51% | 46.06%
21:00 | 10.22% | 26.91% | 17.11% | 45.77%
22:00 | 09.21% | 25.57% | 18.28% | 46.94%
23:00 | 10.29% | 25.09% | 17.24% | 47.38%
00:00 | 09.13% | 24.79% | 16.89% | 49.19%

Time | Snake | Nightmare | Ryu | Riku
01:00 | 48.64% | 13.42% | 19.30% | 18.64%
02:00 | 50.10% | 12.32% | 20.68% | 16.90%
03:00 | 51.24% | 12.34% | 19.22% | 17.20%
04:00 | 51.66% | 13.24% | 18.35% | 16.75%
05:00 | 52.02% | 12.48% | 18.24% | 17.27%
06:00 | 51.46% | 12.81% | 17.07% | 18.66%
07:00 | 49.39% | 13.66% | 16.47% | 20.48%
08:00 | 48.72% | 13.89% | 16.64% | 20.75%
09:00 | 47.17% | 13.64% | 19.66% | 19.52%
10:00 | 48.33% | 13.26% | 19.59% | 18.82%
11:00 | 48.99% | 13.46% | 18.97% | 18.58%

So, Riku's looking a lot better today, trend-wise. Maybe Roxas's absence helps? Still, he's hardly out of the clear yet. After this point in the last match Riku went nowhere but down.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/18/2007 8:17:18 AM | message detail
I don't see Riku destroying Ryu H with the afterschool vote, but with a lead like this Riku is looking better and better to take the win.
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Match 46: Solid Snake > Ryu H Points: 165/232
SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/18/2007 8:18:55 AM | message detail
as long as riku has more votes at the end of the poll i think he'll take it.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/18/2007 8:21:34 AM | message detail
And look at the last two hours in their last match: Riku's best, and Ryu's worst. Even if Riku does get ahead with the ASV, Ryu could kill him with the evening vote.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2007 8:29:46 AM | message detail
You say that like Brawl hype is the only reason Sonic and Snake are popular.

Obviously not the case, but if MC is legit like his past two matches insinuate, Brawl might be the only reason why they can compete with him in this format. Think about Snake pre-Brawl and Sonic's last match.


That's just scary to say.....
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2007 8:30:17 AM | message detail
Smurf's theory is way too risky for my blood.
transience | Posted 10/18/2007 8:36:47 AM | message detail
Smurf stats strike again
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xyzzy
Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/18/2007 8:40:33 AM | message detail
Mac, Riku's last match was on a weekend. Therefore, since the weekend morning is similar in trend to the weekday day, Ryu's going to get killed.

TWF confirmed?
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/18/2007 8:44:12 AM | message detail
Indeed, but MC, for example, had fairly similar trends on the weekend and a weekday. I'm just saying that we can't rely on trends to win it for Riku.
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