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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 524

The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/17/2007 1:59:04 PM | message detail
Oh my bad. Yeah, I have Riku at 21% and Ryu at 22%.

Oh well. Still close enough
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ZFS | Posted 10/17/2007 1:59:47 PM | message detail
Kickin' in a little late there.

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MasterOfHunters | Posted 10/17/2007 2:16:19 PM | message detail
What do you guys think about Dante vs Amaterasu vs Leon vs Pikachu?
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/17/2007 2:17:43 PM | message detail
Dante > Leon.

Leon > Dante still very possible.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/17/2007 2:23:32 PM | message detail
I think this is the first time a character that got 1st in Round 1 lost out to the character in his own four-pack that got 2nd in Round 1.
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ZFS | Posted 10/17/2007 2:24:03 PM | message detail
I've got Leon > Dante there, but I could see it going either way.

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MasterOfHunters | Posted 10/17/2007 2:32:30 PM | message detail
Unfortunately I think Pikachu can sneak in there if either Dante or Leon severely SFF the other...
creativename | Posted 10/17/2007 2:35:50 PM | message detail
What do you guys think about Dante vs Amaterasu vs Leon vs Pikachu?

That it sucks and would've been better with Vivi :)


I think this is the first time a character that got 1st in Round 1 lost out to the character in his own four-pack that got 2nd in Round 1.

Yeah, people were expecting a Knuckles/Yoshi flip-flop, and an Auron flip-flop in round 3 (which I don't think will happen - I think Auron wins there). This is the first one.
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creativename | Posted 10/17/2007 2:37:27 PM | message detail
Unfortunately I think Pikachu can sneak in there if either Dante or Leon severely SFF the other...

I really don't see Dante/Leon sharing much of a fanbase.

I don't think Pikachu even breaks 20% there. If he does, it'll be barely.
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Draco1214 | Posted 10/17/2007 2:40:09 PM | message detail
Pikachu got to round 3 because of SFF. He's getting slaughtered by Dante and Leon.
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/17/2007 2:40:24 PM | message detail
Nightmare should be given more credit for having a shot. Here were some surmised x-stats from last round:

Solid Snake - 43% (on BL)
Nightmare - 23%
Vyse - 11.75%
Rayman - 10.50%

43% for Snake should fair enough, given how well MGS characters seem to have done... (though it all still seems kinda iffy to me save Big Boss and maybe The Boss...) Anyway, if Hayabusa, say, gets SFFed by Snake down to his earlier levels, Nightmare already has a shot on him. Nightmare is probably close enough to Riku to possibly win, and perhaps Riku could be SFFed, as well (though I doubt that)...

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FFDragon | Posted 10/17/2007 2:44:17 PM | message detail
I think this is the first time a character that got 1st in Round 1 lost out to the character in his own four-pack that got 2nd in Round 1.

Liquid?
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creativename | Posted 10/17/2007 2:46:50 PM | message detail
Nightmare>Hayabusa isn't happening. Though I agree he's being underrated, and the oracle I make for him will likely be way higher than others'.

Liquid?

Neither of them placed 2nd round though. I guess you're right and it still counts, but isn't as significant.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/17/2007 2:50:37 PM | message detail
Liquid is the only character who has gone from first to worst in subsequent rounds.
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RPGGamer0 | Posted 10/17/2007 2:53:39 PM | message detail
LIQUID!?

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H__RR____H | Posted 10/17/2007 2:55:23 PM | message detail
L-Block is awesome.

MH is not.



Kirby is awesome.

Kuja is not.




I speak blindly of FF9's villain, but I took BT's opinion of it to heart for this.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
creativename | Posted 10/17/2007 3:09:31 PM | message detail
Here's on analysis on the SFF in yesterday's match, based on Morgoth's formula. They're based on Leon being at 27% (which is just a guess, adjust accordingly if you think he's higher). For the Leon/Vivi 1st round match, they work out to:

Leon 27%
Vivi 22.89%
Ridley 15.60%
Spyro 9.02%

For yesterday's match, they are:

Leon 27%
Pikachu 21.52%
Vivi 19.82%
Tidus 19.15%

For the Pikachu/Tidus 1st round match, based on Pikachu 21.52%:

Pikachu 21.52%
Tidus 19.70%
Isaac 12.43%
Serge 10.16%

Vivi went down about 3 points relative to Leon. First round Vivi gets just under 57% on 2nd round Vivi, which I'd say is over random variation level. Tidus didn't destroy him, but it seems likely he cost Vivi the match. Vivi probably wins over Pikachu by a couple thousand votes without Tidus LFFing him.

Tidus barely went down. This makes me think that Tidus really was hurt by Isaac/Serge LFF more than Pikachu 1st round, as many suspected. It's not definitive of course, but that's my read.

I think I'd take Tidus 1-on-1 over Pikachu. At least it's good know Tidus hasn't fallen that far.

But damnit Tidus, couldn't you have been sligthly weaker? Looks like it wouldn't have taken much at all for Vivi to win here. God that match sucked.

At least L is doing good, more than redeeming this round so far.
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smitelf | Posted 10/17/2007 3:13:27 PM | message detail
Solid Snake - 43% (on BL)
Nightmare - 23%
Vyse - 11.75%
Rayman - 10.50%


I think Snake might be behaving even better than 43% on BL.
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Janus5000 | Posted 10/17/2007 3:15:01 PM | message detail
The best Kirby can do now is stall? Hahaha.
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H__RR____H | Posted 10/17/2007 3:15:45 PM | message detail
l-block makes it rain on dem hoes
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
FFDragon | Posted 10/17/2007 3:17:51 PM | message detail
Kirby is working that ASS*, but that's about all he'll be able to do tonight.








*After School Stall
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H__RR____H | Posted 10/17/2007 3:18:00 PM | message detail
For fun...in a DK/L-Block match, head-to-head, what would you say the percentages look like?
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/17/2007 3:18:02 PM | message detail
I'd like Snake to be above 43 on BL as much as (read: MORE THAN) anyone, but given the way Vyse bombed to near Rayman levels, I'm skeptical.

I mean, I'd *like* Vyse to have stayed the fodder line, Nightmare to be a breakout upper midcarder on Ryu/Sub-Zero levels and for Snake to be challenging Clinkeroth outright, but you've got to be patient with these things! one step at a time grrr curse you L-Block and your sprite round
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/17/2007 3:21:33 PM | message detail
Heh, I just remember all of the pre-contest discussion about how Balthier and Vivi would prevent each other from having any shot in round 3. Funny how neither of them ended up making it.
Lopen | Posted 10/17/2007 3:23:18 PM | message detail
Forget Pikachu > Vivi and Tidus, we've got a ******* Tetris piece beating Kirby. Give me a break.
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H__RR____H | Posted 10/17/2007 3:23:56 PM | message detail
LK has a point. Wild, I tell ya.....
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
FFDragon | Posted 10/17/2007 3:26:43 PM | message detail
Awesome isn't it Lopen?
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Warning_Cmexy | Posted 10/17/2007 3:31:26 PM | message detail
Snake>Nightmare.
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Warning_Crazy 169 Points 16th Place, Dante>Balthier
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Lopen | Posted 10/17/2007 3:47:30 PM | message detail
No, it's not. This may even be worse than when Jill beat Kirby.

Alright, it's not that bad.
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chaotic_midget | Posted 10/17/2007 3:49:38 PM | message detail
This is a travesty. L-Block is about to beat the best pink thing ever invented.
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/17/2007 3:51:46 PM | message detail
From chaotic_midget Posted 10/17/2007 6:49:38 PM #080
This is a travesty. L-Block is about to beat the best pink thing ever invented.

My DS would like a word with you.

Unless you misspelled "worst", in which case I quite agree with you. Except for the whole "travesty" bit. :)
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/17/2007 3:52:58 PM | message detail
If Vyse is at the fodder line... Nightmare would be at like Crono's level. =P

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Warsola | Posted 10/17/2007 3:53:21 PM | message detail
L-Block beating someone is NEVER a travesty. Hell, the board would cheer long and hard if L were to do this showing next round, even if it is against Snake.
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/17/2007 3:53:53 PM | message detail
From Warsola Posted 10/17/2007 6:53:21 PM #083
L-Block beating someone is NEVER a travesty. Hell, the board would cheer long and hard if L were to do this showing next round, even if it is against Snake.

Run.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/17/2007 3:59:15 PM | message detail
If Vyse is at the fodder line... Nightmare would be at like Crono's level. =P

I SEE NOTHING WRONG WITH THIS
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Lopen | Posted 10/17/2007 4:06:14 PM | message detail
Gee KH I didn't know ya were such a Nightmare fan!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/17/2007 4:08:40 PM | message detail
Well you know me

I have Siegfried at #2 on my Hottest Male Video Game Characters list

Does anyone remember that topic

Because I was drunk
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
Lopen | Posted 10/17/2007 4:10:31 PM | message detail
Sure do. I was so fond of it I even ripped it off while also drunk!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/17/2007 4:11:36 PM | message detail
It's a good excuse.
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
Lopen | Posted 10/17/2007 4:15:39 PM | message detail
Like I need an excuse to show appreciation for Dante's hotn... artistic beauty. He's like a painting, you know!
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/17/2007 4:18:02 PM | message detail
did mumei archive that because if he did i want it
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ZFS | Posted 10/17/2007 5:54:11 PM | message detail
why kh why

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HaRRicH | Posted 10/17/2007 6:04:42 PM | message detail
This is a travesty. L-Block is about to beat the best pink thing ever invented.

Somebody's a virgin!
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/17/2007 6:22:13 PM | message detail
Match XLVI: Solid Snake vs Nightmare vs Ryu Hayabusa vs Riku

Past Matches

Round 1

Solid Snake - 57.88%
Nightmare - 22.47%
Vyse - 10.51%
Rayman - 9.15%

Ryu Hayabusa - 45.80%
Riku - 27.24%
Roxas - 17.67%
Haseo - 9.29%

Analysis

Last round we saw Snake score the fourth highest percent of the contest, just .03% below Mario and with Vyse performing like he did back in 2k5 Nightmare was able to secure second with ease. Despite me being a Ryu supporter last and this round I never expected him to demolish Riku like he did, even if Riku got 100% of Roxas’ votes Ryu would still win. Was it a fluke match or will Ryu beat Riku with ease this round as well?

Solid Snake will come in first even against weak characters his performance last round was amazing and he has shown that he has what it takes to make it to the finals. Snake may be in the easy half of the bracket with only two characters from the noble nine, but every single noble nine breaker is in this half with the exception of Vincent who looks ready to beat Crono next round. Even with tougher competition I think Snake should have little problem breaking 40% and might push over 45% is something weird happens.

With the impressive performance of Ryu last round he has become the favorite to take second in this match. Some people had Ryu coming in first last round because of Roxas, but I don’t think anyone expected Ryu to beat Riku by that much. If you were to add Riku and Roxas’ votes Ryu would still win with by 1124 votes. I wouldn’t call Ryu coming second a total lock, but if Riku manages to win I’ll be surprised.

Riku was the favorite to come in second, but then round one happened. A lot of Riku vs Ryu analysis have assume Riku gains 100% of Roxas’ votes, but even though they are from the same series Riku is more prominent in Kingdom Hearts while Roxas is more prominent in Kingdom Hearts 2 while most people have played both I wouldn’t be surprised if the fanbase overlap was somewhere between 70% and 80%. Riku also has another thing to worry about in this poll and that’s Solid Snake. Back in 2k4 Solid Snake overperformed on Sora and even though he had a huge picture advantage we aren’t 100% sure if Metal Gear shares a fanbase with Kingdom Hearts. It seems unlikely though if they do this could be the end for Riku.

Nightmare will come in last in this poll. He did do much better than I expected him to do though that was because his competition was weaker than what I thought. As much as I would like Soul Calibur to do well in these contests I guess the only win for the entire series will be Nightmare coming in second.

Snake comes in first and Ryu comes in second. When I made my bracket I thought this scenario would have been the most unlikely to happen than all of my picks from round two on. Riku will do much better this round and it should be interesting to see by how much Ryu would’ve won last round.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Solid Snake > Ryu Hayabusa

charmander6000’s Prediction: Solid Snake - 42.87%, Ryu Hayabusa - 22.63%, Riku - 20.27%, Nightmare - 14.23%

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Match 45: Kratos > Donkey Kong Points: 161/224
Keno316 | Posted 10/17/2007 6:35:39 PM | message detail
So guys, do you think L-Block places over the fodder line in a one on one format, or do you think this is all due to the current format?
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/17/2007 6:41:05 PM | message detail
Depends on whether or not he faces Link directly or if he goes through a bunch of other guys.
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RPGGamer0 | Posted 10/17/2007 6:52:58 PM | message detail
L-Block is definitely above the fodder line.

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HaRRicH | Posted 10/17/2007 6:57:38 PM | message detail
L-Block is legit -- he got 31% against Kirby/Laharl/Hale, 28% against Kratos/Kirby/DK, is arguably the favorite to come in second over Kratos and Hayabusa/Nightmare/Riku, and comes from what's likely the most played and even owned game on this site. One-on-one, if you give him somebody who's not terribly well known, L-Block could potentially own them beyond belief. Somebody with legit strength and popularity wouldn't destroy him either -- again, I point to L-Block's previous performances and likeliness to survive next round.

I believe it was therealmnm who called L-Block a self-sustaining joke, and he's completely right. Behold, the power of the best joke character yet.



Now get in I/Straight-Block.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/17/2007 6:59:07 PM | message detail
I also ask again: L-Block VS DK...percentages?
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/17/2007 7:04:29 PM | message detail
L-Block vs. DK? 1-on1? Well, a few points better than L-Block would get on Kirby. So, errr.... maybe like 44%. But, that's only judging by Round 1.

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