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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 522

smitelf | Posted 10/16/2007 1:06:20 PM | message detail
....have we not been through this a million times?

If you think Riku is getting 100% of Roxas' votes, and then 60% of Haseo's, you're bat-**** crazy.


And haven't I already said that Riku doesn't need 100% of Roxas's votes and 60% of Haseo's? I'm not rehashing that today, maybe tomorrow.

Anyway, I've also said that I see Riku as the longshot, just less of a longshot judging by the amount of SFF incest that evidently happened between Tidus/Isaac/Serge.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/16/2007 1:07:51 PM | message detail
Then why even bring Haseo up?

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
smitelf | Posted 10/16/2007 1:10:36 PM | message detail
Then why even bring Haseo up?

Because Riku could potentially get a big chunk of Haseo's votes, though not 60%.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2007 1:13:47 PM | message detail
Snake > Ryu is a lock at this point.

The way he dominated last round, combined with the fact that Bowser still couldn't beat Ryu even with Toad/Mewtwo gone PLUS the whole Snake/Sora thing, if Riku wins I will be very surprised.

TuRtLe
~~~
169/216 in the contest. Next pick: Leon > Yellow Rat
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/16/2007 1:15:35 PM | message detail
But 100% or Roxas'?

Either way, I don't know how Tidus needing 11% more of Vivi's votes to outdo Pikachu, inspires confidence into Riku needing 100% of a characters and then near 60% from another. (For the record, that's 60% if the other 40% go straight to Snake, and Ryu H gets 0%, which makes it even more unrealistic).

sorry seems just seems strange.
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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2007 1:17:49 PM | message detail
And I hesitate to call SFF last round. Whatever Serge did to Tidus, Isaac did equally to Pikachu.

Isaac has WAY more overlap with Pikachu than anything Tidus related.

As for today, I think we're seeing Vivi being a representative of the FF series as a whole more than any other match. He's a great option for FF fans to support their series, but throw an actual FF character against him and he does much worse (nevermind the whole Sephiroth thing)

TuRtLe
~~~
169/216 in the contest. Next pick: Leon > Yellow Rat
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
smitelf | Posted 10/16/2007 1:19:07 PM | message detail
But 100% or Roxas

No...my best guess right now would be 80%ish, maybe a little more. I haven't looked super-closely at what happened with Tidus/Serge/Isaac yet, which is why I'll get more deeply Rikku/Roxas/Haseo tomorrow, and I've got to leave.
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smitelf | Posted 10/16/2007 1:20:48 PM | message detail
And I hesitate to call SFF last round. Whatever Serge did to Tidus, Isaac did equally to Pikachu.

Isaac has WAY more overlap with Pikachu than anything Tidus related.


Highly doubtful, IMO. Pikachu and Isaac share a platform; Tidus and Isaac share a genre, which is a more powerful relation. And Pikachu has been in far more places than just the GB, anyway.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/16/2007 1:21:11 PM | message detail
but then riku still loses. either way its a bit different from 11%
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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/16/2007 1:21:51 PM | message detail
Not only would Ryu get some of the Roxas votes, but some of those voters would simply not vote in a Ryu/Riku poll as well.

And I don't think Serge/Isaac did much last round. Vivi is hurting Tidus this round, and Pikachu is being hurt by having some decent competition (just not to the extent I thought it would :/).
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2007 1:22:02 PM | message detail
Pikachu is a Nintendo character on a Gameboy RPG.

Isaac is a Nintendo character in a Gameboy RPG.

Hmmmm

TuRtLe
~~~
169/216 in the contest. Next pick: Leon > Yellow Rat
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/16/2007 1:24:27 PM | message detail
So now you guys get to make me feel good/bad about my bracket.

Snake > Ryu H (4 points)

Master Chief > Yuna (MC > Yuna, 12 points) (Ganon > MC, -12 points) (MC > Ganon, 0 points)
Cloud > Ryu (Ryu, -8 points) (Auron, 0 points)
Link > Vincent. (Vincent, -8 points) (Crono, 8 points)

Master Chief > Dante (MC > Dante, 16 points) (Ganon > Dante, -16 points)

Initial is -6 points.

Ryu H, MC > Dante, and NOT (Ganon > MC) should generally be considered locks. (If Leon somehow beats Dante, it doesn't matter because we both have Dante)

Which leaves us with:

(MC > Yuna, 12 points) (MC > Ganon, 0 points)
(Cloud > Ryu, -8 points) (Cloud > Auron, 0 points)
(Link > Vincent, -8 points) (Link > Crono, 8 points)

Initial is 14 points.

This means that in order for Moltar to beat me, we need to have Cloud > Ryu, Link > Vincent, and MC > Ganondorf.

Who do you favour, and what are the odds? (Assume that the "locks" mentioned earlier all work out)
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/16/2007 1:35:21 PM | message detail
Looks to me like you'll lose by 2 points if things go how I expect them to.

Down 6.
Down 2. Snake>Ryu
Down 2. Cloud>Auron
Down 10. Link>Vincent
Down 10. Master Chief>Ganon
Down 2. Master Chief>Ganon
voltch | Posted 10/16/2007 1:36:17 PM | message detail
i assumed snake took away all of ryu's casual appeal and then riku goes through by taking most of roxas's votes.
but in that case the fight becomes incredibly tighter.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/16/2007 1:38:09 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
voltch | Posted 10/16/2007 1:38:18 PM | message detail
argh how could i forget snake>sora.
maybe riku has more dedicated fans i hope.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/16/2007 1:41:50 PM | message detail
...Yeah. So basically it all comes down to the 3rd round four pack that everyone was wondering about before the contest began.

gogo luigi lff(argh i hate that term) ganon to oblivion
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/16/2007 2:02:37 PM | message detail
argh how could i forget snake>sora.
maybe riku has more dedicated fans i hope.


Massive pic-factor. Snake didn't just have the picture advantage... the environment literally favored Snake. In MGS-fashion. And Sora was the victim (enemy) of that. I would say that could easily make the difference between 65% and, say, 61%. That said, Riku doesn't have to SFFed by Snake tomorrow.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Haste_2 | Posted 10/16/2007 2:04:42 PM | message detail
Er... in two days.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2007 2:13:17 PM | message detail
I figure I have a shot at beating Moltar if Snake > Kratos, Link > Zero and Ganondorf > Master Chief in round 4.

TuRtLe
~~~
169/216 in the contest. Next pick: Leon > Yellow Rat
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2007 2:15:35 PM | message detail
And anybody else noticing Tidus is going even with Vivi since the ASV started?

TuRtLe
~~~
169/216 in the contest. Next pick: Leon > Yellow Rat
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
H__RR____H | Posted 10/16/2007 2:31:24 PM | message detail
Pikachu just ensured Vivi didn't come back while I was in class. "Wonderful"...I'll lose afew ranks on the leaderboard for that mistake, ha. I don't know how I'm still on the leaderboard -- this is the sixth match I've not gotten full points for this round (today's the twelfth match this round). Fortunately, the only other risky pick I have this round is Squall > Sora...if I get that right and the rest of this round is relatively upset-free (by our expectations now, not pre-contest), then I might stay on the board for a long time.

Might...!
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
Haste_2 | Posted 10/16/2007 2:35:39 PM | message detail
I'm still wondering how Hayabusa is stronger than Riku... is it more because Riku's weakened, or is it because Hayabusa increased in popularity (or was underrated)?

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
H__RR____H | Posted 10/16/2007 2:49:36 PM | message detail
I keep wanting to blame Solid/Yoshi, but I forget that Riku and Hayabusa had the same four-pack...grrr.

I feel pretty certain that Hayabusa is stronger than last year, even if only marginally. Microsoft's fanbase is as supported here as ever (albeit through the 360) and Ninja Gaiden Sigma came out for the PS3...neither of which are crucial, but I'm sure did SOMETHING to him to help him from last year. If Dante SFF'd Hayabusa, then that makes his jump into this year all the bigger...but I don't think many people besides KH were behind that idea. IF KH2's recency was what made Riku so strong last year, then Riku could be weaker...and, hey, Yoshi beating Dante went against any mathematical logic, so maybe Yoshi over-performed on Dante...

...it's really hard to say, and it could be a number of things. It's still amazing though.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
Draco1214 | Posted 10/16/2007 2:51:37 PM | message detail
I highly doubt Dante SFF'd Hayabusa by any significant amount. That match falls in line with his previous two years (against Sora and Zero).
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Currently Playing: Fire Emblem Path of Raidance (replay), Wild Arms 3, Persona 3
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/16/2007 3:03:25 PM | message detail
Huh. Completely forgot about Link > Zero. That would be infinitely better than Vincent, at least.

argh i love you vincent but please die :(
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2007 3:35:28 PM | message detail
aww yeah zero bandwagon gaining steam

TuRtLe
~~~
169/216 in the contest. Next pick: Leon > Yellow Rat
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ZFS | Posted 10/16/2007 4:03:15 PM | message detail
more like ashe plz die thx

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godslayer
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2007 4:05:32 PM | message detail
So thoughts about tomorrow?

Guru consensus is Kirby > Kratos, but it doesn't reallly make sense that Kirby has such a consensus behind him. I think Kratos should have this in the bag, and Kirby should survive whatever L-block throws at him.

L-block > DK is a certainty though <_<

TuRtLe
~~~
169/216 in the contest. Next pick: Leon > Yellow Rat
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/16/2007 4:08:51 PM | message detail
From ZFS Posted 10/16/2007 7:03:15 PM #378
more like ashe plz die thx

http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/4153/vincent1hz1.jpg
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
Master Moltar | Posted 10/16/2007 4:13:16 PM | message detail
vincent train > zero bandwagon

train holds more ppl imotbqh
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Leon/Vivi/Pikachu/Tidus - Bracket: Leon > Vivi - Vote: Leon (183/216)
Haste_2 | Posted 10/16/2007 4:15:02 PM | message detail
I never understood why Kirby was favored over Kratos beforehand... I guess people thought Kratos was mediocre mid-carder?

And, I'm skeptical about how L-Block will do. I just don't see it holding up well, when I think about. it.. last round it was up against Kirby and two nobodies. Now L-Block has Kratos (and DK) to deal with. I'm expecting L-Block to be inbetween DK and Kirby fairly comfortably, though maybe it could get last. Now, what COULD cause L-Block to do great this round is if it has an improved picture this time around... I think any picture that's more instantly recognizable as a Tetris piece could make a good difference. Why do you have to wait until the last second for them, SBAllen?! It's not like I'm always around an hour or two before the match to correct my Oracle pick... =P

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
ZFS | Posted 10/16/2007 4:18:00 PM | message detail
what

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godslayer
creativename | Posted 10/16/2007 4:37:47 PM | message detail
what

I have noticed that this word now seems to encompass about 50% of your vocabulary :)
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ZFS | Posted 10/16/2007 4:42:09 PM | message detail
I blame Pokemon, FF fanart (damn you ashe) and this contest!

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godslayer
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/16/2007 4:59:57 PM | message detail
Time .| Pikachu | Tidus ...| Leon .....| Vivi
01:00 | 25.42% | 19.88% | 32.54% | 22.16%
02:00 | 22.92% | 20.11% | 34.59% | 22.38%
03:00 | 23.19% | 19.97% | 34.60% | 22.23%
04:00 | 22.95% | 20.25% | 33.50% | 23.31%
05:00 | 21.52% | 21.86% | 31.71% | 24.91%
06:00 | 23.57% | 22.09% | 30.85% | 23.49%
07:00 | 25.55% | 19.98% | 32.83% | 21.65%
08:00 | 25.03% | 21.79% | 31.29% | 21.89%
09:00 | 23.61% | 21.29% | 32.23% | 22.86%
10:00 | 22.59% | 21.54% | 31.87% | 23.99%
11:00 | 23.08% | 20.87% | 33.39% | 22.67%
12:00 | 21.29% | 22.37% | 33.27% | 23.07%
13:00 | 20.78% | 21.22% | 34.81% | 23.18%
14:00 | 20.85% | 20.79% | 35.17% | 23.18%
15:00 | 23.38% | 20.97% | 34.27% | 21.38%
16:00 | 25.62% | 20.39% | 32.89% | 21.10%
17:00 | 26.27% | 20.37% | 33.22% | 20.14%
18:00 | 26.17% | 20.01% | 33.05% | 20.77%
19:00 | 25.44% | 21.11% | 33.67% | 19.78%
20:00 | 27.58% | 21.03% | 32.75% | 18.64%


I have no idea what just happened in that past hour, but I think Vivi insulted Pikachu's mom and Pikachu got straight up pissed

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This story is not an end yet.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/16/2007 5:31:02 PM | message detail
Just to note, this is the closest that 4th place has come to winning a match to date. Bravo Tidus?
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smitelf | Posted 10/16/2007 5:33:33 PM | message detail
Pikachu is a Nintendo character on a Gameboy RPG.

Isaac is a Nintendo character in a Gameboy RPG.


Pokemon isn't an RPG in the same sense. It's practically its own genre.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21
Draco1214 | Posted 10/16/2007 6:53:27 PM | message detail
Anyone who still believes Kirby > Kratos is happening after all we've seen (especially after today) is clinging. I'd love for it to happen for my bracket's sake and my preference, but no.

Same with Snake > Ryu H tomorrow.
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Currently Playing: Fire Emblem Path of Raidance (replay), Wild Arms 3, Persona 3
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2007 7:01:46 PM | message detail
What the hell just happened?

TuRtLe
~~~
169/216 in the contest. Next pick: Leon > Yellow Rat
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/16/2007 7:03:13 PM | message detail
internets borked
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CB6 - 158/216; Oracle - 32nd
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/16/2007 7:08:49 PM | message detail
Site couldn't handle Pikachu in second, so a live sacrifice was needed.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Leon/Vivi/Pikachu/Tidus - Bracket: Leon > Vivi - Vote: Leon (183/216)
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/16/2007 7:11:15 PM | message detail
The only fair solution is to have a redo of this match tomorrow.

(Only the hardcore users will know that it is a redo and not just the same match so Vivi will beat Pikachu. Someone convince S-Ballin' gogogo)
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
HaRRicH | Posted 10/16/2007 7:11:20 PM | message detail
Fortunately, fedor offered himself for the sake of the site. Hochi owes his future success to him now.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/16/2007 7:14:06 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2879
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2887

kirby es so screwed
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/16/2007 7:17:21 PM | message detail
I'll sacrifice my bracket with pride for three things:

1) If Mega Man wins the contest.
2) If Solid Snake wins the contest.
3) If L-Block wins tomorrow.
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BDawg | Posted 10/16/2007 7:17:47 PM | message detail
I find it kinda funny that Leon and Tidus pretty much stayed constant while Pikachu violently assaulted Vivi. I guess one of these days I'll learn Leon is shockingly (for a RE character) average with the after school vote (I always fear that he will day vote bomb).
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Should I start running now?
smitelf | Posted 10/16/2007 7:23:54 PM | message detail
So thoughts about tomorrow?

Guru consensus is Kirby > Kratos, but it doesn't reallly make sense that Kirby has such a consensus behind him. I think Kratos should have this in the bag, and Kirby should survive whatever L-block throws at him.

L-block > DK is a certainty though <_<


I agree with all of this. I may have Kirby > Kratos in my bracket (not sure why, wishful thinking?), but there's no way Kirby is winning tomorrow with DK in the poll.

And, I'm skeptical about how L-Block will do. I just don't see it holding up well, when I think about. it.

L-Block will hold up as well as all the other "joke" characters. I'd be really surprised if it didn't get in the low 20s at least, with DK and Kirby being LFFed.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2007 7:24:35 PM | message detail
I'd sacrifice my bracket to see Zero back where he was in the good old days.

Fortunately, I won't have to sacrifice my bracket since I took that into consideration when making my bracket.

TuRtLe
~~~
169/216 in the contest. Next pick: Leon > Yellow Rat
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/16/2007 7:31:27 PM | message detail
I still think that Donkey Kong and Kratos are great characters to make L-Block look even more legit. One is a complete choker, and the other one is very new to the gaming scene and very casual-friendly. I can see L-Block siphoning votes from both.
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