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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 522

YoAriel33 | Posted 10/16/2007 11:47:26 AM | message detail
I think a choker like DK and a casual-friendly guy like Kratos are just what L-BLock needs to win this thing!
Haste_2 | Posted 10/16/2007 11:47:48 AM | message detail
Pikachu almost beat Leon in that last update.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/16/2007 11:49:37 AM | message detail
I weep for my bracket, GameFAQs, and humanity. In that order.

Also my sex life, but I'm always weeping about that one way or another.
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/16/2007 11:58:43 AM | message detail
This is over.
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MadGamer_11 | Posted 10/16/2007 12:08:22 PM | message detail
Why is it over?!?!? Vivi is pretty close still...
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"To be forgotten is worse than death"-Freya FFIX
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2007 12:09:20 PM | message detail
It's over because Pikachu just took back in 1 hour what took Vivi all morning to cut.

TuRtLe
~~~
169/216 in the contest. Next pick: Leon > Yellow Rat
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/16/2007 12:10:19 PM | message detail
Go go Pikachu! ^_^
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2007 12:10:42 PM | message detail
And seeing Pikachu closer to Vivi/Tidus than he is to Leon is a good thing. I was worried after he demolished Tidus that Pikachu would be a threat to advance to round 4 if there was any kind of overlap between Leon and Dante.

TuRtLe
~~~
169/216 in the contest. Next pick: Leon > Yellow Rat
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lopen | Posted 10/16/2007 12:14:43 PM | message detail
We still haven't hit the real ASV yet... Vivi has a chance, dammit! The pre-ASV is not always the same...!

... VIIIVIIIIIIII!
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/16/2007 12:18:35 PM | message detail
So we all agree without Tidus being here, Vivi beats Pikachu?
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2007 12:19:56 PM | message detail
I've said from the beginning that I'd take Vivi comfortably over Pikachu 1 on 1.

TuRtLe
~~~
169/216 in the contest. Next pick: Leon > Yellow Rat
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lopen | Posted 10/16/2007 12:20:17 PM | message detail
Pretty undeniable at this point. This isn't a Riku/Roxas kinda split we need. Hell I think without Vivi here Tidus scrapes by Pikachu too... guess Serge and Isaac hurt him a good deal.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Big Bob | Posted 10/16/2007 12:20:54 PM | message detail
Are people forgetting pokemon is an RPG, too? Isaac would hurt Pikachu more than he would Tidus.
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"You're slowing going from Nixon to Mr. Burns." -Jon Stewart on Bush
Lopen | Posted 10/16/2007 12:24:01 PM | message detail
Pokemon is not an RPG in terms of fanbase, I don't care what its genre is.

I didn't even think Serge and Isaac were doing enough to deny Tidus the win last round, but Tidus is keeping this close enough now that I can't help but think they were.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
BDawg | Posted 10/16/2007 12:26:48 PM | message detail
At least Leon is treading water instead of getting drowned like Vivi.
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Should I start running now?
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/16/2007 12:29:36 PM | message detail
;_;

I know it was stupid to hope but I was hoping Vivi could keep it close and maybe he could come back in the night but at this rate DAMN YOU TEEDUS AND RAT
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg
smitelf | Posted 10/16/2007 12:31:54 PM | message detail
No one is calling for a MC like boost. Was it really that hard to comprehend?

So what sort of boost are you calling for, exactly?

You clearly weren't just bringing it up for that fact. It doesn't matter if the 360 is more popular then, so smitelf's original argument is the one that is pointless.

The 360 is more popular than the Xbox, correct? So Halo 3 is more likely to be the first Halo game people have played than GoW II is to be the first GoW game people have played. Thus Master Chief is reaching a new audience, which explains his big boost. Kratos doesn't have any reason to squeeze a big boost out of his new game. A few points, yes, but nothing compared to his 2005-2006 boost, which came from a big expansion of his audience when more people started to play the original game.

No, he doesn't need an MC-like boost to beat Kirby; I was only using MC as an example of a character who has benefitted from a sequel due to factors that aren't present in Kratos's case.

In conclusion, Kratos will do better this year than last, but there's no reason to think that the boost will be all that big. It's really just more of the same playing to the same audience as the original game. Other characters have failed to get big fat boosts from sequels before.
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/16/2007 12:34:16 PM | message detail
It's over....disappointmenton.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Leon/Vivi/Pikachu/Tidus - Bracket: Leon > Vivi - Vote: Leon (183/216)
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/16/2007 12:34:50 PM | message detail
but Tidus is keeping this close enough now that I can't help but think they were.

But statistically speaking, aren't Tidus and Pikachu in the same ratio this round as they are last round? Using Morgoth's formula anyway
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/16/2007 12:36:00 PM | message detail
I'm calling for a boost slightly smaller than what he got last year. If you think he boosted more than few percentage points last year, you're wrong too, so I don't see why you keep saying he can boost a few points, and then saying his boost won't be that big. A few points is a pretty damn large boost from one year to the next.

As for the MC thing, I understand that whole thing, my point was that Kratos doesn't need to be proportionately impressive this year as MC is compared to his previous year's figure.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/16/2007 12:37:15 PM | message detail
So what sort of boost are you calling for, exactly?

Kratos (2006c) VS Dante (2004c)

Kratos has a strength of 27.65.
Dante has a strength of 27.33.

Kratos wins with 50.58% of the vote!
A win of 1,131 with 97,714 total votes cast.

A Devil May Cry 3-sized boost for Kratos would probably be appropriate.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/16/2007 12:37:35 PM | message detail


But statistically speaking, aren't Tidus and Pikachu in the same ratio this round as they are last round? Using Morgoth's formula anyway


Exactly. Which means Vivi is probably hurting him just as much as Issac and Serge were.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
ZFS | Posted 10/16/2007 12:37:46 PM | message detail
I don't think there's any reason to doubt Kratos getting a good sized boost this year. You can cite that "there wasn't a whole lot of new people who played it," but with a character as new as Kratos, having another game just continues to solidify your position in with the fans you already have. You can think he's cool in GoW1, but then consider him one of your favorites after GoW2.

For characters who are well-known and have plenty of games to their name another sequel isn't that big of deal. Someone like Kratos isn't going to receive a meager boost from a game as large as God of War II. Between what new people bought into GoW2 and Kratos being that much cooler of a character in the game, I'd expect a good boost from him. It won't be much longer before he's hanging with the near elites -- if he isn't knocking on that door already.

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godslayer
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/16/2007 12:38:38 PM | message detail

A Devil May Cry 3-sized boost for Kratos would probably be appropriate.


Which was about 3%, which smitelf seems to be more than willing to give out, by the contest siting of "a few percentage points."

Unless a few means one.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/16/2007 12:41:10 PM | message detail
Shouldn't Kratos have the SPF on his side?
~~~
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/16/2007 12:42:12 PM | message detail
why didnt i think of this

kratos > link confirmed
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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
smitelf | Posted 10/16/2007 12:43:09 PM | message detail
From PortugalTheMann
I'm calling for a boost slightly smaller than what he got last year. If you think he boosted more than few percentage points last year, you're wrong too

x-stats:
Kratos '05: 20.4
Kratos '06: 27.65

That's more than a few points.

so I don't see why you keep saying he can boost a few points, and then saying his boost won't be that big. A few points is a pretty damn large boost from one year to the next.

Not really. Characters can go up and down in the stats year to year for no obvious reason anyway. Kratos has an obvious reason to go up, and he probably has, but it's impossible to tell by how much at this point, and there's no reason to think it's more than a conservative amount.
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swirIdude | Posted 10/16/2007 12:44:24 PM | message detail
Kratos '05: 20.4
Kratos '06: 27.65


Except isn't the 2006 stat based off of Samus?
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Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
Luis_Sera89 | Posted 10/16/2007 12:44:28 PM | message detail
Kratos was behind Snake/Sora in '05.
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/16/2007 12:44:44 PM | message detail
I mean, the timing works, doesn't it? It hasn't been out as long as KH2, but the genre difference allows for more frequent playthroughs.

(btw i purchased the original this year and am voting for him so the boost will clearly also be partially attributed to him just being given more time to settle in. this dude may even beat jay solano)
~~~
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BDawg | Posted 10/16/2007 12:46:23 PM | message detail
Ah hehe so now I've lost 14 points in this division and I have Leon>Dante. Actually I haven't given up all hope on that, but it probably shouldn't even be favored. Hooray divison 6!
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Should I start running now?
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/16/2007 12:47:30 PM | message detail
...Kratos boosting that much last year only helps my case. He boosted that much from not even having a new game out. Now he does, give him a boost half the size of that, and he's above Kirby. And a boost half the size of that certainly seems to be a few percentage points.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/16/2007 12:49:30 PM | message detail
And for the record, 2K5 Kratos is underrated, while 2K6 Kratos is overrated, so really it's only a few, but regardless, if you want to argue that he increased 7%, I'll roll with that too. No matter how you slice it, Kratos looks good.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/16/2007 12:52:16 PM | message detail
Why exactly is this even being discussed? Given how well the casual characters have been performing to this point, the man's path is set in stone unless he somehow manages to survive Snake. (Which while awesome, is pretty doubtful. =/)
~~~
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smitelf | Posted 10/16/2007 12:52:37 PM | message detail
He boosted that much from not even having a new game out. Now he does, give him a boost half the size of that, and he's above Kirby.

...Possibly. I don't really trust Kirby's '05 or '06 values because they're based off matches with other Nintendo characters (though the '06 value is probably closer to reality than the '05 value). Our read on Kratos right now is terrible because of DK (and possibly an SFFed DK? A fellow SSB character was in the match...).

But anyway, this is all academic, Kratos is obviously winning the match. We'll see by how much.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/16/2007 12:53:16 PM | message detail
Snake > Kratos instead of Snake > Kirby would make me the happiest man in the world.

But with Snake and Ryu H. to deal with in that poll, I don't think Kratos can handle the heat.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/16/2007 12:54:16 PM | message detail
Well it's not all pointless. If he absolutely boosted through the roof he could come in 2nd to Snake the next round, I'm not calling for it though.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/16/2007 12:57:13 PM | message detail
Oh, right. Ryu H is for all intents and purposes a lock, isn't he? Yay for cutting into Moltar's lead. :)
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
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smitelf | Posted 10/16/2007 12:58:00 PM | message detail
One thing this match has made me think about is how badly Riku was SFFed in his match. Tidus's performance is too good and Pikachu's too poor to be explained in any way other than Tidus being SFFed by Isaac and Serge. Isaac is a GB character and Serge is from an unrelated Square series - if those two can make Tidus look that bad, I'm thinking Riku might surprise us. He probably still won't beat Ryu H., but I wouldn't be shocked by it.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21
Master Moltar | Posted 10/16/2007 12:58:16 PM | message detail
darn you kingdom heaaaaaaarrrtttsss
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Leon/Vivi/Pikachu/Tidus - Bracket: Leon > Vivi - Vote: Leon (183/216)
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/16/2007 12:59:09 PM | message detail
...You would not be surpised by...

where the hell is that device for punching people over the internet. =/
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
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voltch | Posted 10/16/2007 12:59:27 PM | message detail
pokemon # 25 is stronger than black mage?
still at least vivi's thundaga>pikachu's thunder.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/16/2007 12:59:55 PM | message detail
Unless for some strange reason Snake and Nightmare hurt Ryu H. more than Riku... and that shouldn't happen after Snake/Sora.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
smitelf | Posted 10/16/2007 1:00:43 PM | message detail
Hey, I'm not saying it'll happen, but after Tidus's impressive performance here, Riku's chances look better to me than they did before. Not fantastic, but better.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/16/2007 1:01:23 PM | message detail
One thing this match has made me think about is how badly Riku was SFFed in his match. Tidus's performance is too good and Pikachu's too poor to be explained in any way other than Tidus being SFFed by Isaac and Serge. Isaac is a GB character and Serge is from an unrelated Square series - if those two can make Tidus look that bad, I'm thinking Riku might surprise us. He probably still won't beat Ryu H., but I wouldn't be shocked by it.

There's one huge... massive, thing you're missing.

Vivi and Tidus combined kick the living piss out of Leon.

Riku and Roxas combined lose to Ryu H.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
smitelf | Posted 10/16/2007 1:01:42 PM | message detail
Yeah, Snake is the biggest problem for Riku.
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smitelf | Posted 10/16/2007 1:02:50 PM | message detail
There's one huge... massive, thing you're missing.

Vivi and Tidus combined kick the living piss out of Leon.

Riku and Roxas combined lose to Ryu H.


And what about Haseo?
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
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swirIdude | Posted 10/16/2007 1:03:46 PM | message detail
Haseo could have leeched both of them, but clearly no one cares.
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Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/16/2007 1:03:51 PM | message detail
....have we not been through this a million times?

If you think Riku is getting 100% of Roxas' votes, and then 60% of Haseo's, you're bat-**** crazy.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Haste_2 | Posted 10/16/2007 1:04:54 PM | message detail
I could buy Riku beating Hayabusa if only because Hayabusa could be, er, SFFed worse than Riku this round. Nightmare could have a shot, too, since he didn't crumble against Snake, even if Riku and Hayabusa are most likely a bit stronger indirectly.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
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