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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 521

PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/15/2007 3:10:22 PM | message detail
I don't think they did much of anything for Mewtwo, but then again Mewtwo > Pikachu. Also I wouldn't really call it pikachu overperforming if he squeaks by due to LFF, I'd call it LFF letting a less popular character advance.

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Seginustemple | Posted 10/15/2007 3:16:12 PM | message detail
Abraham Lincoln
Crono


I'd say Lincoln takes this one. Especially if he gets his penny pic or his statue pic. He's just too awesome NOT to vote for.
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Lugia2 | Posted 10/15/2007 3:20:10 PM | message detail
There's another reason Tidus doesn't get much credit:

most people know/remember his whiny side, while everyone seems to think that Vivi is awesome.

So it's Leon/Pika, not sure who's in first, though Leon will probably be it.
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Draco1214 | Posted 10/15/2007 3:22:11 PM | message detail
If Pikachu beats Leon, I will eat my wang.
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adamjaxe | Posted 10/15/2007 3:24:10 PM | message detail
Gah I was under the impression Amateurwolfthing wouldn't be getting out of the first round, now it's getting through the second -_-
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/15/2007 3:29:22 PM | message detail
This is absurd.

Jesus christ, Ada, you really are a ****ing *****.

And not even a ***** in a red dress, either, that's too cool a title for your total, abject, woeful patheticness. Get the **** out of my sight and site you whore

>_> *cough* anyway

I can't believe how close this was W2W for so long, only for Ammy to blow Ada to pieces. Sucks.

THE BIG QUESTION: Does this match confirm that Okami's status as a 'sleeper hit' is overrated? It seems like it was marketed to be like that from the outset; the first coverage I saw of it was a 3 or 4 page spread in a magazine saying "Could Okami be the next ICO-style sleeper hit?" and since then I've always imagined it as such, don't know about you guys.

The particular aspects of the game (basically the fact that it isn't 'the norm') would also suggest that, just like an SotC or an ICO, but...Ammy appears to have a decent After School (and therefore casual?) Vote.

Okami tries to be a sleeper, but in fact it appears to be a moderately well-known, popular game as opposed to a cult. ICO and SotC scoff in its face.
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Keno316 | Posted 10/15/2007 3:32:18 PM | message detail
I just laugh at how pathetic this makes Ada's 4 pack look. I mean, the star of Dead Rising could probably lose to Matt the Mii.
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MasterOfHunters | Posted 10/15/2007 3:33:12 PM | message detail
Which game is Abraham Lincoln in? I think there should be restrictions, like they must be the main character or at least a playable character.

Darth Vader def. Sonic

Mega Man def. Stewie Griffin

Wolverine def. Master Chief

Abraham Lincoln def. Crono

Cloud Strife def. Spider-Man

Mickey Mouse def. CATS

Homer Simpson def. Samus Aran

Hulk Hogan def. Yoshi

Vincent Valentine def. Goku

Sephiroth def. Vegeta

Batman def. Mario

Solid Snake def. Jack Bauer

Gordon Freeman def. Dwight Schrute

Ganondorf def. Bugs Bunny

Kirby def. William Shatner

Link def. Michael Jordan
smitelf | Posted 10/15/2007 4:18:43 PM | message detail
I don't think they did much of anything for Mewtwo, but then again Mewtwo > Pikachu.

But by how much? Mewtwo's competition was only marginally worse than Pikachu's here, and Mewtwo was being slightly LFFed, and look at how he did. There's no reason to expect Pikachu to do badly here when Tidus will be even more LFFed than last match.

Also I wouldn't really call it pikachu overperforming if he squeaks by due to LFF, I'd call it LFF letting a less popular character advance.

It's overperforming based on expectations - LFF hurt Tidus for sure, but not many people thought it would be enough for Pikachu to get by him, if only judging by Pikachu's terrible performance in past contests. He, and the other Pokemon, have surpassed expectations.

I don't see any reason for Pikachu to bomb, unless you think Tidus's x-stats from '06 are accurate...?
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creativename | Posted 10/15/2007 4:23:18 PM | message detail
Darth Vader > Sonic. Don't see much to debate here. I'd be very, VERY surprised to see Vader lose to Sonic. I don't think Brawl is of the magnitude to give Sonic a real shot here. Frankly, I wouldn't even buy into the arguments of anyone who'd pick Sonic here. Vader might lose, but picking him is almost a no-brainer.

Mega>Stewie, blowout, comedy characters would have a hard time being low midcarders even; also you don't, for instance, play as Stewie in any action game like the other action characters here (Batman, Vader, etc. - especially true for Spider-Man who's had a lot of popular games)

Wolverine > Master Chief...might be close, but Wolverine might also crush him completely. MC has no shot at winning over Wolverine in a blowout, if he won it would have to be very close.

Crono>Abe...maybe you could debate, as there's a wide range for him, but Lincoln would probably be fodder.

Cloud/Spider-Man is tough. Cloud would probably be the favorite, but Spider-Man has the potential to be stronger than Link. Less than 50% likelihood of that...but waaaay over, say, 5% chance. Spidey would have a great shot at Cloud.

Mickey Mouse blows out CATS, obviously

Samus easily wins over Homer I think. I don't think Simpsons characters are near badass enough to compete with the likes of Star Wars, Batman, etc.

Yoshi>Hulk Hogan. Hogan would be big-time fodder probably.

Vincent/Goku...I'm really not sure about this one. Goku's been in a lot of games too. Could go either way.

Sephiroth>Vegeta. Vincent/Vegeta I don't know (would probably go with Vincent, but not confidently), but Sephiroth is too much.

Batman>Mario...this one is debatable, but I have a feeling Batman wins comfortably here. If Batman can't beat Mario, then non-video game characters just cannot compete. But I think Batman might even 60/40 Mario.

Snake blows out Bauer, obviously

Gordon>Who?

Ganon>Bugs Bunny. Again, well known, but not badass enough (though I wouldn't be too confident in Ganon, I think Ganon wins comfortably). Pikachu-esque. Though Bugs probably beats Pikachu.

Kirby>Shatner.

Link doubles Jordan at least. Probably quadruples or quintuples him. Sports stuff cannot compete at this site.



In Gamefaqs, yes. But try that poll in a neutral site like MSN, and Vader will kick Link's ass easily.

Not really relevant. And don't be too sure about Vader not beating Link here. He'd probably get 40% without trying...what's another 10%?

Yeah, um, the top character on a site like MSN would be either Mario or Master Chief.

Master Chief...? What??

Maybe you mean MSN games or something, but on the MSN homepage, nobody will know Master Chief, or virtually any video game character. I doubt 20% of MSN traffic is from gamers.


I'm saying that Tidus isn't getting any credit because Vivi is going to make him look like Vaan.

I wouldn't be surprised. Tidus has a lot of downside tomorrow.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/15/2007 4:27:37 PM | message detail
Auron (2006c) VS Yuna (2005c)

Auron has a strength of 34.68.
Yuna has a strength of 26.10.

Auron wins with 62.37% of the vote!
A win of 29,245 with 118,206 total votes cast.

I'd say that's probably a fair comparison for Mewtwo and Pikachu.
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 10/15/2007 4:31:41 PM | message detail
From what game ise that Dog that is winning?
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/15/2007 4:32:19 PM | message detail
Okami

And she's a wolf.
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wavedash101 | Posted 10/15/2007 4:35:20 PM | message detail
Okami tries to be a sleeper, but in fact it appears to be a moderately well-known, popular game as opposed to a cult. ICO and SotC scoff in its face.

Except for the fact that SotC sold 3 times as much as Okami did and is a Greatest Hits title

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creativename | Posted 10/15/2007 4:35:42 PM | message detail
Also I'm still fully expecting Pikachu to do poorly tomorrow, but I'm not counting him out of the match just because of Vivi/Tidus split.

Oracle-wise, Pikachu is a slight favorite right now over Vivi. So clearly you can't count him out. If anything Vivi would be the one people count out, though I still have faith in him. Most seem to expect Tidus to be close to 20% but I think he might fall into the low teens, which would be good for Vivi.


4chan is given way too much credit; I doubt they were doing much for Mewtwo.

It's a fairly tight range for 4chan, we know what they do. About 2K-4K votes, give or take.

And everyone knows they did diddly for Mewtwo. Not a single person ever even suspected such a thing, and the fact that Mewtwo sucked with the board vote and rocked the ASV would be enough to show they did nothing for Mewtwo. Also highly unlikely they did anything for Pikachu. I don't think anyone suggested this.

I think the Pokemon boost is due either to the format, the DS games, or (much less likely, though it's probably a small factor) yearly variance. The DS is big at this site, and the new games are for the DS. Also, I think - though I'm not sure - that the DS probably skews a bit older than the GameBoy.
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Big Bob | Posted 10/15/2007 4:39:26 PM | message detail
Maybe Okami picked up in recognition once IGN announced it as Game of the Year?
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/15/2007 4:40:19 PM | message detail
Every time someone brings up the 4cF I want to stab something.
~~~
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creativename | Posted 10/15/2007 4:50:32 PM | message detail
Actually, I correct myself - Pikachu is not a slight favorite over Vivi, he seems to be a clear, though not big, favorite over Vivi.

But I think people are overestimating Tidus.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/15/2007 4:53:49 PM | message detail
If Pikachu beats Leon, I will eat my wang.

If Pikachu beats Leon, I will eat your wang.

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
smitelf | Posted 10/15/2007 5:02:36 PM | message detail
And everyone knows they did diddly for Mewtwo. Not a single person ever even suspected such a thing, and the fact that Mewtwo sucked with the board vote and rocked the ASV would be enough to show they did nothing for Mewtwo. Also highly unlikely they did anything for Pikachu. I don't think anyone suggested this.

I was responding to the idea that Pikachu wouldn't do as well as other Pokemon because of a lack of 4chan support. Of course they did nothing for Pikachu or Mewtwo, yet both did very well last round.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/15/2007 5:09:28 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-44.jpg

XMFD Yes Tidus failure!

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Keno316 | Posted 10/15/2007 5:10:02 PM | message detail
So next Rnd. Leon SFF's Dante to Hell and Ammy animal SFF's Pikachu to hell and moves on to Rnd. 4.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/15/2007 5:10:27 PM | message detail
I don't know why but I wasn't expecting a bad pic... my Vivi faith is renewed strong.

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Keno316 | Posted 10/15/2007 5:11:09 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-44.jpg


Wow...Vivi with the pic advantage...course that was already known...


Tidus looks like he just came out of Pikachu's ass.
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/15/2007 5:11:26 PM | message detail
YESSSSSSSS VIVI IN SECOND
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/15/2007 5:11:45 PM | message detail
He also looks like he's fondling Leon's balls.

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Big Bob | Posted 10/15/2007 5:12:15 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-44.jpg

Pikachu: Pika?
Tidus: Mmm...
Leon: Uh...what the hell are you doing?
Vivi: That's pretty ****ed up, man.
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/15/2007 5:12:17 PM | message detail
From Keno316 Posted 10/15/2007 8:10:02 PM #322
So next Rnd. Leon SFF's Dante to Hell and Ammy animal SFF's Pikachu to hell and moves on to Rnd. 4.

Dante is going to beat Leon. Pikachu isn't going to make it to round three. Ammy is also Capcom.

'lol'
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swirIdude | Posted 10/15/2007 5:13:04 PM | message detail
Ammy also being Capcom doesn't matter that much when DMC and Okami are very different games.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/15/2007 5:13:36 PM | message detail
Poor Vivi.
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/15/2007 5:14:05 PM | message detail
From swirIdude Posted 10/15/2007 8:13:04 PM #329
Ammy also being Capcom doesn't matter that much when DMC and Okami are very different games.

I'm aware. But Leon isn't going to SFF Dante.
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swirIdude | Posted 10/15/2007 5:14:48 PM | message detail
its possible both of them leech, DMC and RE4 have many similarities.
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Keno316 | Posted 10/15/2007 5:15:33 PM | message detail

Dante is going to beat Leon. Pikachu isn't going to make it to round three. Ammy is also Capcom.

'lol'



Yea of little faith! BOOKED IT IS!
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Big Bob | Posted 10/15/2007 5:16:58 PM | message detail
I don't think the picture will make much of a difference; Pikachu is as recognizable as always, and it's not like Vivi can be given a bad picture.

The question is how badly Tidus and Leon will perform when the look like they're about to make out.
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/15/2007 5:18:59 PM | message detail
From swirIdude Posted 10/15/2007 8:14:48 PM #332
its possible both of them leech, DMC and RE4 have many similarities.

That's fine. There is no chance of an upset there.
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Mumei | Posted 10/15/2007 5:20:47 PM | message detail
The question is how badly Tidus and Leon will perform when the look like they're about to make out.

SFF of a different sort?

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creativename | Posted 10/15/2007 5:22:18 PM | message detail
Pic seems neutral to me. Vivi looks good, but then, he always does.

Tidus looks frooty, but then...he always does.
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Who Cares? | Posted 10/15/2007 5:26:38 PM | message detail
*Comes home to see current result*

WOW, is there a word out there that describes Ada's fourpack worse than 'suck'? Well, if we're still looking for the next Tanner, Tales of the Abyss would be the way to go! >_>
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/15/2007 5:41:03 PM | message detail
Huh. Didn't know Vivi was given a Harry Potter-ish hat in KH2. Actually, I forgot that he was in that at all.
wavedash101 | Posted 10/15/2007 5:43:52 PM | message detail
He is extremely forgettable in KH2...very disappointing camo

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wavedash101 | Posted 10/15/2007 5:44:11 PM | message detail
cameo*
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/15/2007 5:51:36 PM | message detail
Anybody want to take Ammy over Balthier head-to-head?
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smitelf | Posted 10/15/2007 5:51:41 PM | message detail
Most seem to expect Tidus to be close to 20% but I think he might fall into the low teens, which would be good for Vivi.

Yes, definitely - where Vivi ends up depends on how strong Tidus is. If Tidus is really as weak as he seemed last year, then he will fall in the low teens, and Vivi will take second place. If, however, last year was a fluke (I'm more inclined to this view), then Pikachu will be strong enough with the help of LFF to defeat Vivi.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/15/2007 5:53:58 PM | message detail
Even if Tidus' value last year isn't legit (and it isn't, how much he's underrated is up for debate though), Vivi just needs to be significantly favored by the fanbase.

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
HaRRicH | Posted 10/15/2007 5:56:03 PM | message detail
Tidus with 20%? Can't say I agree...Leon's far enough ahead of Vivi/Tidus/Pikachu anyway and Tidus has to deal with Vivi. After Tidus lost to Pikachu last round...I'll take Tidus to get 14%-16%.
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smitelf | Posted 10/15/2007 5:58:36 PM | message detail
From PortugalTheMann
Even if Tidus' value last year isn't legit (and it isn't, how much he's underrated is up for debate though), Vivi just needs to be significantly favored by the fanbase.

Has Vivi ever demonstrated that he has that kind of draw, though? I guess there's that match with Sephiroth. But I hate to base anything off of Sephiroth, anomalous bastard that he is. Pikachu deserves to be the favorite.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/15/2007 6:05:25 PM | message detail
Well considering he's only had 3 matches, two against Nintendo, and one against Seph, no. But I'll go with what I've got.

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Master Moltar | Posted 10/15/2007 6:16:30 PM | message detail
Pikachu's Snap model doesn't look as...good as his last round pic, but it works I guess.

Vivi looks hawt though. Can't blame the pic if he fails to pull through.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/15/2007 6:17:27 PM | message detail
you look hot
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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Big Bob | Posted 10/15/2007 6:18:10 PM | message detail
That's his SSBB model, Moltar.
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