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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 521

ZFS | Posted 10/14/2007 10:55:01 PM | message detail
I don't know much about Balthier, but if his great line is "I'm the leading man!", he should be honored to be within 3% of the lovely Ada Wong.

but its ada wong who in the world likes ada wong

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let's mosey
Big Bob | Posted 10/14/2007 11:01:06 PM | message detail
50 vote barrier ACTIVATE
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"You're slowing going from Nixon to Mr. Burns." -Jon Stewart on Bush
Gaddswell | Posted 10/14/2007 11:02:42 PM | message detail
Looks like Ammy's going to slowly pull away now. Match over?
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Finally a damn bracket!
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
ZFS | Posted 10/14/2007 11:04:31 PM | message detail
I would really hesitate to ever call a match over when one character is leading by 52 votes, and is extending that lead by marginal amounts each update.

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let's mosey
greatone10 | Posted 10/14/2007 11:05:25 PM | message detail
Especially when Ada is much more likely to do better with the day vote than Ammy.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line waiting for Guru results, because not enough people have played the Mario RPGs.
Mumei | Posted 10/14/2007 11:06:22 PM | message detail
Ammy is the sun goddess.

She'll suddenly start pulling 50% updates.

Believe.

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"I believe that words uttered in passion contain a greater living truth than do those words which express thoughts rationally conceived" - Sensei
Draco1214 | Posted 10/14/2007 11:06:27 PM | message detail
I don't know why Ada should be so favored in the day. She went even with Balthier while Ammy went even with Dante.
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Currently Playing: Fire Emblem Path of Raidance (replay), Wild Arms 3, Persona 3
voltch | Posted 10/14/2007 11:08:59 PM | message detail
assuming next year it's one on one can MC beat the followiing?
Auron/ryu/dante/bowser/ganondorf/squall/yoshi/leon/zero/vincent/tifa or will he revert to losing to the likes of sub-zero.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
Big Bob | Posted 10/14/2007 11:10:01 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
greatone10 | Posted 10/14/2007 11:10:37 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero is not that weak in the first place.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line waiting for Guru results, because not enough people have played the Mario RPGs.
Big Bob | Posted 10/14/2007 11:13:05 PM | message detail
I clearly don't know anything about comparing updates. ><
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"You're slowing going from Nixon to Mr. Burns." -Jon Stewart on Bush
Dilated Chemist | Posted 10/14/2007 11:20:20 PM | message detail
assuming next year it's one on one can MC beat the followiing?
Auron/ryu/dante/bowser/ganondorf/squall/yoshi/leon/zero/vincent/tifa or will he revert to losing to the likes of sub-zero.


Auron > MC
MC > Ryu
MC > Dante
MC >= Bowser
Ganondorf > MC
Squall > MC
MC >= Yoshi
MC > Leon
MC > Zero
Vincent > MC
Tifa > MC

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Our life is short and our days run; as fast away as does the sun. And as a vapour or a drop of rain; once lost can ne'er be found again.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2007 11:24:03 PM | message detail
Next year, I fully expect MC to be slightly beneath the highcarders you just listed, with the possible exception of Leon, who I don't think is quite at that level yet.

MC only looks so dominant because this really is his year.

TuRtLe
~~~
165/208 in the contest. Next pick: Danta > Han Solo
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2007 11:25:50 PM | message detail
What match is the closest match with the lowest peak lead?

TuRtLe
~~~
165/208 in the contest. Next pick: Danta > Han Solo
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/14/2007 11:28:45 PM | message detail
What match is the closest match with the lowest peak lead?

either Chrono Trigger (I don't remember how big the peak lead was in that match but it wasn't big) or Frog VS Liquid Snake (None of them could get more than a 400 lead)
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Kyle Bowen: Ignore me then and dont be an ass when I post. It solves everything.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2007 11:35:07 PM | message detail
Looks like Ada's dominating the night vote. Look at that cut!

TuRtLe
~~~
165/208 in the contest. Next pick: Danta > Han Solo
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Keno316 | Posted 10/14/2007 11:37:34 PM | message detail
Or the night vote is just getting ridiculously low totals.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/14/2007 11:37:49 PM | message detail
Keep it up, Amaterasu, keep it up.
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GSB International Champion Masamune
Masa/Hiko/HeroicTronBonne/Cory/Buddha
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2007 11:38:46 PM | message detail
Lead at 15.

It's been a popular number tonight, and probably the total number of brackets that took Ada or Ama to advance.

TuRtLe
~~~
165/208 in the contest. Next pick: Danta > Han Solo
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/14/2007 11:41:30 PM | message detail
Wow. I think Ada and Balthier are in exactly the same proportion this match as the last one. Well it's nice for that to happen for once
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/14/2007 11:43:59 PM | message detail
Yeah, if we use Dante as the Great Casual Measuring Stick by which all things casual are henceforth measured, Balthier is about as casual as Ada. Not terribly surprising, but the fact that he's this damned weak is. Final Fantasy XII would be such a wild card in another games contest.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2007 11:44:59 PM | message detail
Yeah, so much for Ada collapsing against recognizable characters.

I think the real suprise here is Ama doing just as good with Ada and Balthier here as she was against Matt and Mac.

TuRtLe
~~~
165/208 in the contest. Next pick: Danta > Han Solo
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2007 11:46:04 PM | message detail
At least FF12 would have the benefit of FFranchise voting. But put it up against any other Final Fantasy except 9 or 11, and it would fall like a house of cards.

TuRtLe
~~~
165/208 in the contest. Next pick: Danta > Han Solo
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/14/2007 11:50:41 PM | message detail
I think that just adds to its unpredictability. If any other game had main characters this weak, no one would give it a second glance. However, a Final Fantasy game always has that potential ace in the hole. For all we know, this could be the weakest Final Fantasy of them all, one that would lose to anything with a respectable fanbase, or it could have the potential to win a round or two.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/14/2007 11:51:56 PM | message detail
Let's not forget how weak FFVI's cast is. I have no idea what the stats say, but I sure wouldn't pick Terra or Celes to take post-RE4Wii Ada.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Gaddswell | Posted 10/14/2007 11:52:34 PM | message detail
Lead of 15 again.
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Finally a damn bracket!
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
Big Bob | Posted 10/14/2007 11:56:57 PM | message detail
Those dogs always are a pain in RE...
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"You're slowing going from Nixon to Mr. Burns." -Jon Stewart on Bush
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/15/2007 12:06:32 AM | message detail
I'm not going to bed until I see a lead change
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/15/2007 12:16:10 AM | message detail
There you go noob avenger :)
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SC2k7: 88/128, tied for 1364th
Today's Pick: Mega Man > Knux (whoops)
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/15/2007 12:16:54 AM | message detail
Yay. Good night
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/15/2007 12:17:37 AM | message detail
Ada back in 2nd.

6 lead changes between the two now.
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Finally a damn bracket!
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/15/2007 12:21:23 AM | message detail
And Ammy does a reversal. Make that 7 changes.
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SC2k7: 88/128, tied for 1364th
Today's Pick: Mega Man > Knux (whoops)
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/15/2007 12:27:36 AM | message detail
1 vote! This is a terrific match.
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SC2k7: 88/128, tied for 1364th
Today's Pick: Mega Man > Knux (whoops)
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/15/2007 12:30:30 AM | message detail
epic turn of affairs
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GSB International Champion Masamune
Masa/Hiko/HeroicTronBonne/Cory/Buddha
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/15/2007 12:31:08 AM | message detail
Ammy is running away now >_>
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Kyle Bowen: Ignore me then and dont be an ass when I post. It solves everything.
Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/15/2007 12:32:34 AM | message detail
Running away with 7 votes lead? >_>
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/15/2007 12:33:57 AM | message detail
Seven vote lead? She's practically sprinting away!
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/15/2007 12:34:44 AM | message detail
Yes! Ada needs to gain about 0.028 votes per update in order to catch up, that's to much for someone like Ada IMO.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Kyle Bowen: Ignore me then and dont be an ass when I post. It solves everything.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/15/2007 12:36:31 AM | message detail
And now she has a lead of 8 votes, Ada is dead.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Kyle Bowen: Ignore me then and dont be an ass when I post. It solves everything.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/15/2007 12:36:44 AM | message detail
HOLY **** AMATERASU. PUT A FORK IN THIS ONE BY JOVE.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Haste_2 | Posted 10/15/2007 12:40:13 AM | message detail
Phew... finally back... I've had very little time over the past couple days. Actually, that's how it is with weekends, usually...

Anyway... amazing performance by MC. I saw him a couple hours in... looks like he nailed what I was expecting him to hit by the end (43-44%). I absolutely cannot wait to see MC when he gets up to some NNers to see how he holds (not making it up to the match with Sonic/Snake is practically impossible now). Casuals are going to destroy Board 8 for the next little when it comes to MC, heh. Not that I enjoy seeing MC doing so well because I -like- him... I still find him incredibly boring. I just like a good surprise. Yuna showed to be of pretty good strength as she beat Alucard by 4.5 points. Blah. I was hoping she wouldn't quite do that well for Luigi/Ganondorf's sake next round... not that she's a lock by any means. I don't think Luigi/Ganondorf leeched off each other THAT much... not like Squall/Aeris, at least.

Today... go Amaterasu! I have a bad feeling Ada Wong will do better in the day, regardless of trends last round, though... I hope that's just my pessimism. I thought Balthier would hold up better than Ada Wong... I guess people do care about Ada.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Ngamer64 | Posted 10/15/2007 12:41:03 AM | message detail
BT, I looked up a similar stat after PW/Bomberman, so here's that listing.

Closest wire-to-wire matches where the loser was never able to take the lead:

Phoenix Wright > Bomberman 2007, lead maxed at 1313*
Magus > Ganon 2003, lead maxed at 1783
Tidus > Shadow 2004, lead maxed at 1803
Snake > Bowser 2005, lead maxed at 2161
Resident Evil > Street Fighter, lead maxed at 2458
Dr. Robotnik > Sin 2005, lead maxed at 2680
Donkey Kong > Duck Hunt 2004, lead maxed at 3126

*actually finished 2nd of 4

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The 2007 Guru Rankings! thengamer.com/guru
thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/15/2007 1:20:46 AM | message detail
Go Ada!

And yes, I too usually wonder about W2W matches during this sort of match.

The closest ones are Liquid/Frog and CT/LttP, I think, but I couldn't tell you beyond that.

Vince and Squall wasn't a bad one, IIRC, wasn't the final lead the biggest?
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/15/2007 1:23:13 AM | message detail
I just got an interesting idea, what if Link gets a wolf picture in any match after Link/Vincent/Crono/Zero.. we have seen how pictures have almost killed popular characters before so maybe......
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Kyle Bowen: Ignore me then and dont be an ass when I post. It solves everything.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/15/2007 1:26:18 AM | message detail
The only reason I'd want Ada to win is in hopes she'll hold Leon Kennedy back for Pikachu to pull off the hilarious upset (though Pikachu even making it out of this round is a question mark).

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/15/2007 1:27:50 AM | message detail
Never played Okami.

Guys I jJust got the PS2 version of RE4 and met Ada for the first time in the game, ADA WONG FOR 2007
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Ngamer64 | Posted 10/15/2007 1:36:31 AM | message detail
Yeah, including wire to wires that changed hands a few times you get

- Chrono Trigger > LttP, lead maxed at 524
- Frog > Liquid Snake, lead maxed at 460
- Vincent > Squall, lead maxed at 1149

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The 2007 Guru Rankings! thengamer.com/guru
thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
Haste_2 | Posted 10/15/2007 1:39:04 AM | message detail
Random fact: only one match so far this round that had nearly identical proportions between the the two winners of their respective matches. That match is Cloud/Ocelot/Marcus/Kefka (Kefka got the expected proportion on Marcus.. likewise with Cloud/Ocelot). Today looks like it will be another to go with the numbers, which I honestly wasn't expecting.

Mega Man/KOS-MOS/Yoshi/Knuckles was also pretty darn close to what Round 1 numbers expected, too (Knuckles underperformed just slightly).

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/15/2007 1:39:28 AM | message detail
- Ada/Amaterasu, lead maxed at, uh...56...

>_>;

Ada has been making a few small cuts. Lead from 49 down to 20 in the last 20 minutes.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/15/2007 1:43:25 AM | message detail
Mega Man/KOS-MOS/Yoshi/Knuckles was also pretty darn close to what Round 1 numbers expected, too (Knuckles underperformed just slightly).

Ugh, the fact that this is an SFF match puts a bit of a damper on my Chief > Luigi > Ganon upset next round. There's no way I'll admit to Luigi being out of it completely, but that tiny 3% gap seems bigger when it's an SFF match. I'm hoping for two things:

1. Chief and Yuna throw the Nintendo voting dynamic on its ear.
2. Mudkip hurt Luigi more than he did Ganondorf.

I still have hope, Luigi!
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
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