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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 520

consolefreak | Posted 10/14/2007 2:16:15 AM | message detail
Also, I think BT is right about Starcraft and Korea. It's a huge phenomenon. They have starcraft schools or something of the sort. Weird stuff.
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156/200. Today : Master Chief > Yuna. Tomorrow : Dante > Balthier
*One_Winged_Ange*
Gaddswell | Posted 10/14/2007 2:19:47 AM | message detail
Yeah, I'm pretty sure Starcraft is their national game/sport. They also have a number of Starcraft related deaths over there from people playing nonstop for consecutive days.
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Finally a damn bracket!
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Tales | Posted 10/14/2007 2:24:50 AM | message detail
What are the chances for Ganondorf>Yuna next round? For some reason I had MC>Yuna in round 1 and 2 but for mysterious reason I let Yuna take the higher ground in round three(I also have her and Ganon in the finals :P)
Gaddswell | Posted 10/14/2007 2:27:48 AM | message detail
After what we saw yesterday and today, pretty much nil. The Ganon/Luigi split will keep Ganon from taking first and, as we're seeing right now, Chief looks like a real threat to upset Sonic.
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Finally a damn bracket!
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/14/2007 2:38:39 AM | message detail
Finally, Yuna cut!
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Finally a damn bracket!
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Consolesonlyalt | Posted 10/14/2007 2:46:09 AM | message detail
Lol Yuna. Great stuff. Master Chief > Yuna for round 3 is starting to look really good.
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158/200. Today : Master Chief > Yuna. Tomorrow : Dante > Balthier.
Lopen | Posted 10/14/2007 2:58:23 AM | message detail
My god I still can't get over how polar Chief's voting trends are. He has like a 20% variance between the strongest point of the day and the dead hours of night... it's awesome.

I think his day vote will be even more disgusting today, because Alucard and Liquid are that much better with the night than Vercetti and Parappa... plus Vercetti is reasonably good with the day vote.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
transience | Posted 10/14/2007 4:55:01 AM | message detail
nice show by the Chief here. I'm convinced.

nice show by Liquid, too. Auron / Big Boss overlap? who knows, but at least there's more evidence to back up the claims. not that it's particularly strong, but whatever.
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SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi.
"All I can do... is just sit with them."
Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/14/2007 5:27:57 AM | message detail
Just like his first round (also on a weekend), Liquid has a random spike starting at around 5:30 updater time... must be from our non-American voters who love their MGS! In that match, Liquid kept gaining until later in the day where Alucard started catching up... too bad Master Chief is going to take most of the day votes in this match.
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
__hiei__ | Posted 10/14/2007 6:11:56 AM | message detail
Master Chief is Crono reversed

Crono was also getting 40% consistently through the night

then he actualy started to duke it out with Zero for updates in the day...going at around 35%


Master chief is pretty much the opposite.

of course,i'm not saying MC is on Crono's level just yet,as Zero is much stronger than Yuna.just comparing voting trends
Kratos_42 | Posted 10/14/2007 7:16:01 AM | message detail
Stupid LS, why couldn't you suck LAST ROUND? That way, I'd have three more points right now, and be ahead of the 100-people levels, instead of at the edge. (At 143 points, will have 151 after update).
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It's difficult sometimes to distinguish between existentialism and a bad mood.
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/14/2007 7:16:05 AM | message detail
MC's day vote is a awesome sight to behold. .6-.7% increases FTW.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg
Master Moltar | Posted 10/14/2007 8:00:44 AM | message detail
Chief stealing percentage from everyone now. This guy is just amazing in this format.

Yuna definitely improved overnight, and she'll fall the least, so decent performance from here.

Liquid....ouch, Alucard's falling fast too.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
MC/Yuna/Alucard/Liquid - Bracket: MC > Yuna - Vote: Liquid (171/200)
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/14/2007 8:21:04 AM | message detail
Where on the site can I find the average Oracle prediction? I want to see how Yuna is doing relative to expectations. o.o
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 10/14/2007 8:28:24 AM | message detail
Average preds are not included on the Oracle page. Bug KM about it, he's been planning to have them up for a while.

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HaRRicH | Posted 10/14/2007 8:33:21 AM | message detail
MC's back over 40%...can't wait to see what he does next round.
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Yesmar | Posted 10/14/2007 8:33:47 AM | message detail
Master Chief is a beast with the day votes! Here are the updates so far (all rights reserved to RPguy) Weird that Alucard hasn't dropped off as much as the other two.

Time | M. Chief | Yuna | L. Snake | Alucard
01:00 | 40.80% | 23.94% | 14.24% | 21.02%
02:00 | 41.13% | 24.34% | 14.20% | 20.33%
03:00 | 39.95% | 24.82% | 13.77% | 21.46%
04:00 | 37.37% | 26.59% | 14.75% | 21.30%
05:00 | 36.05% | 28.37% | 15.12% | 20.46%
06:00 | 34.23% | 30.65% | 15.96% | 19.16%
07:00 | 32.84% | 30.29% | 17.38% | 19.48%
08:00 | 36.16% | 30.00% | 14.58% | 19.26%
09:00 | 39.71% | 29.28% | 13.73% | 17.28%
10:00 | 43.43% | 26.27% | 12.60% | 17.71%
11:00 | 44.43% | 25.36% | 11.98% | 18.23%

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"Look out-- It's Liquids and Gases!"
MadGamer_11 | Posted 10/14/2007 8:49:48 AM | message detail
I'm happy to see that Yuna beasted with the night vote. Although I'm still shocked at MC.
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"To be forgotten is worse than death"-Freya FFIX
RockMFR 5 | Posted 10/14/2007 9:14:16 AM | message detail
Alucard comeback!?!?!
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Save the cheerleader, save the world. o_0
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/14/2007 9:20:33 AM | message detail
Hmm, Yuna didn't win any hours this time. So we either have Halo 3 in action or LFF...
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/14/2007 9:50:27 AM | message detail
Huh, I'm surprised Alucard is holding up so well here. I guess the few day voters he gets are hard to take away. :P
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/14/2007 10:13:03 AM | message detail
Liquid completely dying for absolutely no reason after beating Alucard shows just how crazy this contest is. Anything can happen.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/14/2007 10:15:10 AM | message detail
Yeah. I expected Alucard to beat Liquid but beating him this bad is ridiculous. Makes no sense in regards to round 1.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/14/2007 10:24:25 AM | message detail
Replace Parappa and Vercetti with Alucard and Liquid and Master Chief looks like he only loses a few percent. Quite a nice fanbase he has there
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/14/2007 10:35:14 AM | message detail
Unless he somehow matches his 1st round performance. Those 50% updates are murderous. Ok so he definitely won't reach over 45% but damn he might go a bit over 43.
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2007 10:41:14 AM | message detail
Absolutely not. In no match this contest does Squall stand even the slightest of chances of taking out Sonic. First there's Aeris/Sora holding him back, then there's Solid Snake. Not happening.

Squall got 43% on a Solid Snake that Sonic got 45% on. Given how badly Sonic looked last round, there's a good chance Squall can outdo him there. Assuming he can beat Sub-Zero while being SFF'd by Aeris/Sora. But if Auron beat subby 60-40, I'd expect Squall to at least match that 1-on-1, which means Sub-Zero has as much of a chance as Yuna does of advancing, except Squall won't be splitting evenly with Sora/Aeris.

TuRtLe
~~~
157/200 in the contest. Next pick: The Chief > The Summoner
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/14/2007 10:49:41 AM | message detail
I want Squall to do well but there's no way he makes it ahead of Sonic if only because of Snake's being there. Sonic in Brawl doesn't help, either. I'm worried about Squall even making it that far; Sub-Zero has a great chance to upset him due to Aeris/Sora being there. >_>
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
BesaidGuy | Posted 10/14/2007 10:57:14 AM | message detail
Bold Prediction: Master Chief gets 45% or damned close to it


MC>Sonic

Believe

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FuturamandFFX/TheRealoSix
AndyManCan's favorite user
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2007 10:59:45 AM | message detail
I still don't get how Snake affects Squall's chances. Last year, after the first round we thought Snake SFF'd Squall again, but after Mega Man and Sonic went up to bat, we realized Squall actually did really good, coming out almost even with Vincent in the stats.

TuRtLe
~~~
157/200 in the contest. Next pick: The Chief > The Summoner
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/14/2007 11:04:36 AM | message detail
I'm keeping the MC > Yuna train rolling with this one. Over 6% ahead of Alucard, and possible LFF holding her back? I'll take it.

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Explicit Content.
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/14/2007 11:07:05 AM | message detail
I still don't get how Snake affects Squall's chances. Last year, after the first round we thought Snake SFF'd Squall again, but after Mega Man and Sonic went up to bat, we realized Squall actually did really good, coming out almost even with Vincent in the stats.


What you are saying about Squall could be true, but let's not forget Snake VS Sora. Both Snake and Squall are two big Playstation characters, which means that there could be a big overlap between them. Also this is a different format, where Snake and Sonic are heavy casual favourit4es over Squall....

However we will never know if Squall could upset Sonic or not (LOL) casue Squall's chances to advance to round 4 is Sub, I mean below-zero (Haw haw what a lame joke)
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Kyle Bowen: Ignore me then and dont be an ass when I post. It solves everything.
consolefreak | Posted 10/14/2007 11:27:06 AM | message detail
Squall got 43% on a Solid Snake that Sonic got 45% on. Given how badly Sonic looked last round, there's a good chance Squall can outdo him there. Assuming he can beat Sub-Zero while being SFF'd by Aeris/Sora. But if Auron beat subby 60-40, I'd expect Squall to at least match that 1-on-1, which means Sub-Zero has as much of a chance as Yuna does of advancing, except Squall won't be splitting evenly with Sora/Aeris.

TuRtLe


Squall did hold up really good there. Anyway, assuming Squall beats Subby, the 4-pack is

Solid Snake
Sonic
Squall
Kirby/Ryu

If it's Ryu, there's no way it's happening. If it's Kirby, I could see a wee bit overlap with Sonic and I suppose Squall might squeeze in. But I don't know, I have a feeling Squall will hold up a lot worse to Snake this year. I can't support that, though. In any case, everything would have to go right for Squall and even then it's rather unlikely.

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156/200. Today : Master Chief > Yuna. Tomorrow : Dante > Balthier
*One_Winged_Ange*
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2007 11:46:58 AM | message detail
Like I said, I'll reserve judgement on Sonic until this round, to see if the whole Smash thing helped him.

TuRtLe
~~~
157/200 in the contest. Next pick: The Chief > The Summoner
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
EvilPrinny | Posted 10/14/2007 11:55:42 AM | message detail
SSBB won't help sonic much. That was his fanbase, either way.
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Dood! I'm another alt of Albion Hero!
Master Moltar | Posted 10/14/2007 12:02:26 PM | message detail
Boom! 50%+ update for Chief
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
MC/Yuna/Alucard/Liquid - Bracket: MC > Yuna - Vote: Liquid (171/200)
BesaidGuy | Posted 10/14/2007 12:03:58 PM | message detail
Moltar, you ready to jump on the Chief to the Finals bandwagon, I've been looking for a big name every since HM jumped off.
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FuturamandFFX/TheRealoSix
AndyManCan's favorite user
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/14/2007 12:11:25 PM | message detail
Ah yeah Alucard made a cut. Soon Alucard will start to cut like hell and take the 2nd lead away from Yuna....
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Kyle Bowen: Ignore me then and dont be an ass when I post. It solves everything.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/14/2007 12:11:52 PM | message detail
I can see a Chief/Link match going down to the wire!
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Feel my truth.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/14/2007 12:22:19 PM | message detail
Depends on how Chief does next round. If he beats my Ganny hard enough, then I'll jump in

But I've got my own train to conduct (Link > Vincent, whoo whoo)!
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
MC/Yuna/Alucard/Liquid - Bracket: MC > Yuna - Vote: Liquid (171/200)
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/14/2007 12:24:33 PM | message detail
SSBB won't help sonic much. That was his fanbase, either way.

Chief seems to be getting helped from a game that was targeted specifically at his established fanbase.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
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BesaidGuy | Posted 10/14/2007 12:24:55 PM | message detail
What if he drops 40%+ on Ganondorf

Then Will You Believe
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FuturamandFFX/TheRealoSix
AndyManCan's favorite user
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/14/2007 12:26:28 PM | message detail
Heh, this reaction kinda reminds me of Samus's first two rounds in 2k4...
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/14/2007 12:26:39 PM | message detail
If the Cheif drops 40% on Ganondorf, then the real match is if Solid Snake or Sonic will get the fourth place in the finals >_>
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Kyle Bowen: Ignore me then and dont be an ass when I post. It solves everything.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/14/2007 12:27:56 PM | message detail
Heh, this reaction kinda reminds me of Samus's first two rounds in 2k4...

Yeah, but Chief definitely isn't doing this against fodder.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
BDawg | Posted 10/14/2007 12:28:11 PM | message detail
If he drops 40% on a poll with Luigi, Ganon, and Yuna then the age of HaloFAQs has begun. I might vomit a little but yeah I'd believe then.
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Should I start running now?
BesaidGuy | Posted 10/14/2007 12:29:31 PM | message detail
Oh God I am excited!

I can not wait for HM to pose as a hobo and try and get back on this train only to be violently tossed from it by the soon to be conductor, Master Moltar!

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FuturamandFFX/TheRealoSix
AndyManCan's favorite user
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/14/2007 12:32:20 PM | message detail
Bandwagon>Train
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
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BesaidGuy | Posted 10/14/2007 12:33:33 PM | message detail
once again KP, you are right beyond imaginable belief!


bandwagon>train
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FuturamandFFX/TheRealoSix
AndyManCan's favorite user
BDawg | Posted 10/14/2007 12:34:16 PM | message detail
Anyway I'm pretty sure Lopen is master of Chief.
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Should I start running now?
HaRRicH | Posted 10/14/2007 12:34:49 PM | message detail
Ya know, MC's getting all sorts of retribution in various ways right now.....


~MC's worst loss to date was his first loss, which was in 2k3 to Aeris. Yuna practically equaled Aeris last year against a common opponent, and MC's now smashing Yuna for the second time in a row...and will again next round...and, if she advances again, a fourth time will be had as well. It must also be nice to have a Square punching bag after never beating anything Square-related before this contest (Aeris, Frog, Crono, and if Subby didn't upset him last year then Auron would have too).
~MC's most notable loss was his loss to Frog, which was insanely close and was Frog's second match which was very close that year...his first being against Liquid Snake. Many people said that, in a match already that close, they would trust Liquid Snake to overcome MC head-to-head, despite MC technically doing better against Frog than Liquid did.
~Halo was soundly beaten by CV in the Series Contest last year, and Alucard is the star of CV's biggest game. It was also assumed for afew years that MC/Alucard would be a great match not only because of how close it would be, but also because of the opposite trends that would come into play...and before last year, I think most people would have taken Alucard > MC.


Now MC's just beating that ass for all the years of abuse he's had! If only he could have had a four-pack with Isaac, Frog, and Sub-Zero at some point.....
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