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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 520

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2007 10:29:00 PM | message detail
I find it somewhat frightening that MC is continuing to build his percentage despite being in the poll with Alucard, an MGS character and a Final Fantasy character.

Sweet jesus I didn't think Halo 3 would help him this much.

TuRtLe
~~~
157/200 in the contest. Next pick: The Chief > The Summoner
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
EvilPrinny | Posted 10/13/2007 10:29:20 PM | message detail
This is just great seeing Master Chief doing this well!
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Dood! I'm another alt of Albion Hero!
swirIdude | Posted 10/13/2007 10:29:45 PM | message detail
Just wait until the day vote.

Master Chief will be getting 50%+ per update.
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Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2007 10:30:40 PM | message detail
So this is the second time one of my dark horses impresses me too much and has the potential to go farther than I had them going.

Goddamn it Pikachu, why did you have to outright beat Tidus and look very good to advance since Ada will probably be sapping Leon as well.

TuRtLe
~~~
157/200 in the contest. Next pick: The Chief > The Summoner
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2007 10:31:40 PM | message detail
I just realized, MC is starting to act like Cloud and Sephiroth, by having a terrible first hour in comparison to the rest of the poll.

Scaaaaaaary thoughts.

TuRtLe
~~~
157/200 in the contest. Next pick: The Chief > The Summoner
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Keno316 | Posted 10/13/2007 10:31:47 PM | message detail
MC wasn't really much of a dark horse. Specially when his route was pretty much mapped out already.


...Its just the fact he can potentially reach the finals now that is huge!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
BDawg | Posted 10/13/2007 10:33:02 PM | message detail
Master Chief is just loading up his bandwagon to create one of the worst derailment accidents in American history. But good grief is he putting on a good act.
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Should I start running now?
Lopen | Posted 10/13/2007 10:38:15 PM | message detail
You have the nerve to call Master Chief your dark horse? The Chief is no horse! OUT WITH THEE!
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2007 10:38:32 PM | message detail
Most had Ganondorf > Dante for round 4, I have MC coming second there which is technically an upset pick. Besides that, a lot of people had Yuna winning in round 1, and even here and a lot have MC not advancing at all next round.

TuRtLe
~~~
157/200 in the contest. Next pick: The Chief > The Summoner
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/13/2007 10:41:07 PM | message detail
I have mc going to the finals in my bracket (as an unlikely upset), and even I'm surprised how well he's doing. >_>
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sig
Lopen | Posted 10/13/2007 10:41:53 PM | message detail
That's still a lame pick to call your dark horse.

Chief > Sonic or Snake, that's a dark horse worthy pick.

Not that I would stop at such a lowly gamble!
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Haste_2 | Posted 10/13/2007 10:42:14 PM | message detail
How's this statement: Luigi beats Ganondorf next round (whether it's for 3rd place or 2nd)?

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
swirIdude | Posted 10/13/2007 10:42:44 PM | message detail
That is a statement that I must decline.
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Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2007 10:44:19 PM | message detail
Meh, calling him a dark horse is just something I used for 5 characters in my bracket that could give me a good shot at a prize if they all pan out (Fenix to round 3, Zero to round 4, Pikachu to round 3, Master Chief to win his division and go to round 5, Kratos to beat Kirby in round 2 and go to round 4 with Snake)

TuRtLe
~~~
157/200 in the contest. Next pick: The Chief > The Summoner
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lopen | Posted 10/13/2007 10:44:42 PM | message detail
Master Chief > Luigi next round, bank on it.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/13/2007 10:47:55 PM | message detail
God damn MC. He's only doing 2% worse than last round at this time.
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SC2k7: 88/128, tied for 1364th
Today's Pick: Mega Man > Knux (whoops)
Haste_2 | Posted 10/13/2007 10:49:22 PM | message detail
That is a statement that I must decline.
Yah, just like you declined how I said LS could underperform today!

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Lopen | Posted 10/13/2007 10:50:45 PM | message detail
And he's doing it against characters that are much better with the night vote... I wouldn't be too surprised to see him come pretty close to last round's %.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
MadGamer_11 | Posted 10/13/2007 10:50:54 PM | message detail
Meh, calling him a dark horse is just something I used for 5 characters in my bracket that could give me a good shot at a prize if they all pan out (Fenix to round 3, Zero to round 4, Pikachu to round 3, Master Chief to win his division and go to round 5, Kratos to beat Kirby in round 2 and go to round 4 with Snake)

Those were some pretty good calls. Although I'm hoping Vivi can beat Pika.
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"To be forgotten is worse than death"-Freya FFIX
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/13/2007 10:51:25 PM | message detail
Well at least Yuna's in second so I'll get some decent points. I'm a little surprised how poorly Liquid is doing.
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GSB International Champion Masamune
Masa/Hiko/HeroicTronBonne/Cory/Buddha
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/13/2007 10:57:48 PM | message detail
Let's list every factor that could have possibly helped Chief.

1. The format
2. Halo 3 hype (including the massive media blitz)
3. Halo 3 release
4. No longer being a part of the most hated company/console on the site
5. Game Fuel?

I think the first four cover everything, but all of them seem pretty significant to me. Looks like everything is coming up roses for Chief.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/13/2007 10:58:25 PM | message detail
Gamefuel > reasons 1-4 combined

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Heroic KOS MOS | Posted 10/13/2007 10:59:40 PM | message detail
Master Chief just needs to share a little of his day vote with Yuna for the sake of her looking acceptable for next round (and just to save face), too bad he won't.

Although I would expect Yuna to look a little better proportionally next round as I imagine she can probably get a little more than her share of votes that would be expected statistically from Liquid and Alucard, so I suppose she isn't totally doomed.

I can almost see MC going and getting this exact same % next round as he did in the first and will probably get now (starting from 40 and going up to 45%) despite the obviously stronger competition.
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~JonPen1416
Lopen | Posted 10/13/2007 11:02:35 PM | message detail
Master Chief is only going to look better and better as his competition gets stronger. He won't forfeit much from this % next round either.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/13/2007 11:02:59 PM | message detail
Yuna's gaining % throughout the night... I'm thinking she should be looking pretty good come the end of the match. She hasn't been as high as she is now, since 20 minutes into the match. Keeping MC > Yuna faith alive. aww yeah

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/13/2007 11:03:55 PM | message detail
Master Chief is only going to look better and better as his competition gets stronger. He won't forfeit much from this % next round either.

Or in the finals. Master Chief with 40% against Link/Cloud/Snake? Believe.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2007 11:04:26 PM | message detail
Okay, I was just doing some thinking (oh god run for the hills). Using 2k4's raw stats:

Crono (2004c raw) VS Mega Man (2004c raw)

Crono has a strength of 39.87.
Mega Man has a strength of 34.74.

Crono wins with 56.43% of the vote!
A win of 12,100 with 94,042 total votes cast.

We all know that 2k4 was Crono's strongest year, and he dropped (in relation to everyone else) in 2k5, so perhaps Link/Mega Man wasn't as illegitimate as people are saying, and MM just really dropped off between 2k3 and 2k4, and stayed constant from his 2k4 value.

TuRtLe
~~~
157/200 in the contest. Next pick: The Chief > The Summoner
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2007 11:05:50 PM | message detail
I'm thinking high 30's for MC next round is looking like a good call, with Ganon being about 25% and Luigi/Yuna at about 20%.

TuRtLe
~~~
157/200 in the contest. Next pick: The Chief > The Summoner
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lopen | Posted 10/13/2007 11:06:33 PM | message detail
Aw yeah EC, that's what I'm talkin about.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/13/2007 11:17:50 PM | message detail
Holy ****, Chief.

And lol Liquid.
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CB6 - 146/200; Oracle - 30th
http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/13/2007 11:19:47 PM | message detail
Liquids performance today is still blowing my mind. That's a huge amount for him to be hurt compared to Alucard when put up against Yuna and MC. You wouldn't expect either one to really share a significant overlap with Liquids fanbase. You could make a case for Yuna, but then I'd expect her to be beating Alucard much harder than she currently is.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/13/2007 11:21:25 PM | message detail
Theory: Chief SFF's everyone.

He's that damn good.
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CB6 - 146/200; Oracle - 30th
http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/13/2007 11:23:45 PM | message detail
I'd buy it, but Alucard is holding up too well.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/13/2007 11:24:06 PM | message detail
The Plan, etc,
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CB6 - 146/200; Oracle - 30th
http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg
Lopen | Posted 10/13/2007 11:24:23 PM | message detail
Eh, we've seen FF have fun with MGS, whereas Alucard has shown to hold up against it well enough. It's not too farfetched to think Yuna is SFFing Liquid a bit.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/13/2007 11:25:09 PM | message detail
Believing Yuna is SFFing Liquid lends itself to Alucard > Yuna.

Sorry, but I'm not willing to go there.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/13/2007 11:27:10 PM | message detail
Well, if Yuna's SFFing Liquid, there's also LFF there, which means that Yuna and Liquid should be doing better/Chief and Alucard doing worse.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
Lopen | Posted 10/13/2007 11:29:15 PM | message detail
Huh? Why would that mean Alucard > Yuna? Just because she's SFFing Liquid doesn't mean she's getting a higher % of the vote because of it. If anything it should be hurting her % a bit.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/13/2007 11:29:39 PM | message detail
Master Chief SFFing everyone with a bit of The Plan thrown in to screw up the stats is my story and I'm sticking to it.
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CB6 - 146/200; Oracle - 30th
http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/13/2007 11:30:07 PM | message detail
...eh, I guess that's a possible explanation. I do think Yuna should be doing better here (granted we still have the day to come), just thinking of that as a possibility makes me feel better about Yuna next round, because as it is right now, I don't think I can call Yuna the favorite for 2nd, though I'm holding out permanent judgment until this match is over.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2007 11:31:08 PM | message detail
I think Yuna/Liquid fishiness is the only logical explanation for why Liquid is doing so bad.

TuRtLe
~~~
157/200 in the contest. Next pick: The Chief > The Summoner
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/14/2007 12:12:12 AM | message detail
Man, Yuna's lovin' her some night vote.
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CB6 - 146/200; Oracle - 30th
http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff192/Afroking97/sonicwii.jpg
ZombieSnakeX | Posted 10/14/2007 12:17:07 AM | message detail
I swear you people pick the dumbest characters.
ZFS | Posted 10/14/2007 12:17:42 AM | message detail
I'm a bit hesitant to throw out Yuna/Liquid SFF on this for whatever reason. Just doesn't seem right to me. Although there's gotta be something going on here with the way Alucard's putting the hurt on Liquid right now.


Nice to see Yuna rocking the night vote, though!

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let's mosey
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/14/2007 12:20:48 AM | message detail
Taking a look at Yuna's matches last year, she just sucks with the early vote. Improved during the night in all of her matches, and won or broke even on the day vote in all of them. Even improved a little on Zelda.

Alucard and Liquid are gonna look really bad when this is over.
The_Ocelot2 | Posted 10/14/2007 12:40:40 AM | message detail
The good thing about Chief is that no one can really SFF him (or LFF in this format).
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Go Ducks Go!
voltch | Posted 10/14/2007 12:44:07 AM | message detail
that's it!
i hope we revert to normal formats next year.
MC looking so good just sounds plain wrong.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
MasterOfHunters | Posted 10/14/2007 1:54:27 AM | message detail
This is Korea we're talking about. A Starcraft forum there would be the equivalent of... well, Gamefaqs here. They have competitive leagues that get thousands of viewers. Starcraft is to Korea like the NFL is to America.

Blatant lies. SC is a small niche market over there, more like indoor lacross.
consolefreak | Posted 10/14/2007 2:11:11 AM | message detail
I figured Alucard would win this match by half a point because of the pic, but it seems to be making a much bigger different. Fanbase dynamics with MC (and less likely Yuna) are also a possibility (or maybe the dynamics in the last round helped him over Alucard).

Yeah it's definitely Yuna that's bringing him down. We've had enough MGS/FF SFF cases.

Also I'm still thinking there's a good chance Vivi just SFFs Tidus into the ground and Tidus has his most pathetic performance ever. I wouldn't mind that if it means Vivi has a better shot.

Despite previous evidence (Sephiroth - Vivi, Squall - Tidus) I'm more inclined to say Tidus SFFs Vivi a little. I think he'll finish above him.

Squall has a chance of knocking out Sonic

Absolutely not. In no match this contest does Squall stand even the slightest of chances of taking out Sonic. First there's Aeris/Sora holding him back, then there's Solid Snake. Not happening.

Believing Yuna is SFFing Liquid lends itself to Alucard > Yuna.

Sorry, but I'm not willing to go there.


What, the LFF can actually help thing again? Come on. Yuna's hurting Liquid and vice versa, but Yuna's doing it a lot harder.

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156/200. Today : Master Chief > Yuna. Tomorrow : Dante > Balthier
*One_Winged_Ange*
consolefreak | Posted 10/14/2007 2:12:48 AM | message detail
Also, wow MC. Looking good there. I think next round will tell us a lot more about his strength potential, when Nintendo is added to the mix.
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156/200. Today : Master Chief > Yuna. Tomorrow : Dante > Balthier
*One_Winged_Ange*
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