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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 519

Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2007 7:38:34 PM | message detail
Master Chief is a lock.

(oh god)

Now that we've got that out of the way, what we need to look for is exactly how dominating the Chief looks today, as well as looking for signals of a Halo 3 boost. Anything that signifies he didn't fall too much from last round's percentage means probable trouble for even a boosted SNOIC.

The rest? Yuna looks like a moderate favorite over the other two, and I'm gonna actually go with her (see? no unilateral MGS slurping here!). Neither Liquid nor Alucard upsetting should be a shock, but she just seems to be the one to go with here. As for Liquid/Alucard? Sticking with Liquid again !! - bad pic and all. brackets abandoning Alucard ftw aww yeah

Karma Hunter's Vote: Liquid Snake. THROUGH THIS- *gets shot*
Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Master Chief with 39%, Yuna with 25%, Liquid Snake with 18%, Alucard with 18%

we do what we must because we can

Upset Probability: 50%

Both Liquid and Alucard have equally good shots at upending Yuna depending on if she bombs or not or something anyway time for some cake



Transience’s Analysis

'll come out and say it: I'm skeptical of Master Chief.

Master Chief's performance in round 1 was ridiculous: nearly 46% on a decent midcarder in Yuna, a low midcarder in Tommy Vercetti and a piece of crap in Parappa. I guess you could compare the fourpack in strength to Sonic's, and Master Chief outperformed him by a good 6%. oh, and the biggest game of the year got released for him between last round and this one. basically, he looks like a lock to get to the finals. I don't care about that Brawl announcement for Sonic, Master Chief is still the favourite to come in second there based on the first round. hell, he might be strong enough to place in the finals. okay, that's stretching it, but the format can only do so much: this has to be a stronger Master Chief. a much stronger one.

which is why I'm skeptical.

basically, we're basing Yuna off Master Chief. Yuna is the single most "w-w-w-what?" result from the female bracket last year. according to stats, she's stronger than Auron. prior to 2k6, she was about equal to Rikku. set Yuna = Rikku and that result looks a lot less crazy. then, throw in the good ol' FFX poll - http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=841 -- and you can see that she's really not much of a fan-favourite. I could see her flopping in this format. add in that I think Master Chief had some kind of "casual SFF" over Tommy Vercetti, and I question just how strong he is.

that's not to say he isn't going to dominate this division -- he is. this is clearly a stronger Chief, format or not, and he's got Halo 3 behind him. but I wonder just how strong he really is. if he breaks 40% here, I'll be convinced he has a free ticket to the semis. if not, though? stuff is up for debate.

now that I've trashed Yuna, let's look at Liquid and Alucard. statistically, these guys are probably a step behind Yuna. Yuna would take them one-on-one, but what about in this format? both guys seem like fan-favourite types that would do well in multi-option polls. throw in that we've seen Final Fantasy and Metal Gear Solid show some possible overlap before -- are we 100% sure Auron/Big Boss is legitimate after seeing Big Boss this year? -- and we might have a closer match than we know.

I think all three of these guys will be battling for second. MGS keeps impressing me more and more, Yuna's the other way around and I like Alucard because he seems to be the most independent of the three. I'm backing Alucard here, but I think it will be a three-way fight for second.

Master Chief, winner
Liquid and Yuna come close
but I trust the plan

transience's prediction: Master Chief with 38.61%, Alucard with 21.24%, Yuna with 20.15%, Liquid Snake with 20.00%
Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2007 7:39:26 PM | message detail
Guest’s Analysis - neonreaper

Let's frame neonreaper's 2007 bracket as such: I thought Big Boss was the same as The Boss because I haven't played the MGS series. Further, I thought that the non-Snake MGS characters were "just happy to be here", and would never have seen past contests except for "villains" and "chick" brackets. Maybe I should've looked at the lol x-stats once or twice, or remembered recent history, or not underestimated MGS for the 4th straight year.

But we're not here to talk about me. We're here to talk about Master Chief.

He's winning this match, against 3 somewhat solid (or liquid! hoooo-oooo!) midcarders. He's using his Master Chief magic to pummel fan favorites. Master Chief Petty Officer John 117 can't wait for all the topics crying about how he has no character, how his games are overrated, how he would lose in a fight, etc. Luckily for him, this contest isn't about which fanbase cries the most, it's about the worldwide recognition of a HERO! A legend! A demander of excellence!

His competition includes Liquid Snake, who belongs to that underrated-by-me MGS cast. And Alucard, who was edged by 3 votes in the previous round by Liquid. And Yuna, who overdid it last year but should be one peg above Alucard and Liquid.. enough to get by, chasing after the almighty Master Chief. Hoping.. praying.. begging that he'll return her calls...

An interesting subplot brews, as Alucard will fight to regain his honor against Liquid Snake. A stronger Square character, this time from LS's era and not Alucard's, will be in play. That might have already been proven to be a stupid sentiment, maybe not, but it's what I'm going with...

Master Chief.....35.1%
Yuna...................23.2%
Alucard...............21.1%
Liquid Snake.....20.6%

Hail to the Chief!



Crew Consensus: Stickin' with Chief > Yuna
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/13/2007 7:56:48 PM | message detail
A stronger Square character, this time from LS's era and not Alucard's, will be in play.

Huh? SotN is from 1997, MGS is from 1998, FFIX is from 2000, and FFX is from 2001. And Liquid has practically no presence in MGS2, so I hope you're not counting that...
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2007 7:59:56 PM | message detail
Round 2- Division 5 Semifinal B

Previous Matches:


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2881
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2882

Characters Involved:

Master Chief


Last round, he managed 45% in a dominating performance before Halo 3 came out. He's already looking to be the favourite to win this division with Ganon/Luigi SFF, so he should have no trouble with these guys.

Yuna

One of the more disappointing matches last round, Yuna (along with most of the female bracket characters) totally bombed, looking much more like her 2005 self. lol female bracket

Liquid Snake

Last round, he beat Alucard by 3 votes.

Alucard

Last round, he lost to Liquid by 3 votes. All a part of The Plan.

Predictions:

Only one thing is certain here, Master Chief will beat the utter crap out of these guys. Despite replacing an aging Tommy Vercetti and PaRappa with 2 decent midcarders, Master Chief will have no trouble scoring in the mid-high 30's, thanks in part to Halo 3 coming out between last round and today. This match should just be another chance for Chief to flex his muscles before the important round 4 match where he'll be taking on Ganondorf and Dante, much tougher opposition.

Once again second place is up for grabs, except this time. it looks like all 3 characters will have a shot.

Most were quick to give Yuna second here due to how well she did last year, but if she really is close to her 2005 value as last round implies, Alucard and Liquid could give her a run for her money. According to the 2k5 stats, Yuna would be about 55% on Alucard, but both were likely underrated due to Samus/Ganon and Snake/Sora. Yuna should have second here, but who knows what The Plan has in store for us.

TuRtLe's Prediction: Master Chief 36%, Yuna 24%, Alucard 20%, Liquid Snake 20%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Master Chief > Yuna
TuRtLe's Vote: Master Chief

TuRtLe
~~~
149/192 in the contest. Next pick: Ganondorf > Luigi
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2007 8:00:55 PM | message detail
You're forgetting about TTS!

Ignore the fact that SotN went to XBLA after TTS.

TuRtLe
~~~
149/192 in the contest. Next pick: Ganondorf > Luigi
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
smitelf | Posted 10/13/2007 8:34:17 PM | message detail
Once again, I agree with BT...and we all saw how that went last time...

Vincent...*sob*
---
Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21
Lopen | Posted 10/13/2007 8:55:11 PM | message detail
Alright alright... here we go! C'mon, Chief!
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
swirIdude | Posted 10/13/2007 8:55:29 PM | message detail
SODA!
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Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/13/2007 8:58:32 PM | message detail
let's do this.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2007 9:00:17 PM | message detail
Master Chief 23.53%

4
Yuna 17.65%

3
Liquid Snake 11.76%

2
Alucard 47.06%

8
TOTAL VOTES 17

joo
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
MC/Yuna/Alucard/Liquid - Bracket: MC > Yuna - Vote: Liquid (171/200)
emanresU weN | Posted 10/13/2007 9:00:21 PM | message detail
Master Chief 20.83%

5
Yuna 20.83%

5
Liquid Snake 12.5%

3
Alucard 45.83%

11
TOTAL VOTES 24
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Go Ducks Go!
Gaddswell | Posted 10/13/2007 9:00:26 PM | message detail
Master Chief 20% 4
Yuna 25% 5
Liquid Snake 15% 3
Alucard 40% 8
TOTAL VOTES 20

The Plan out front!
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Finally a damn bracket!
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
Eggplant Lord | Posted 10/13/2007 9:00:31 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted

Master Chief 25% 3
Yuna 25% 3
Liquid Snake 8.33% 1
Alucard 41.67% 5
TOTAL VOTES 12

___
*watches*
o_o
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/13/2007 9:00:32 PM | message detail
Master Chief 41.43%

29
Yuna 18.57%

13
Liquid Snake 11.43%

8
Alucard 28.57%

20

Chief winning the board vote.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
EvilPrinny | Posted 10/13/2007 9:00:43 PM | message detail
Board Vote = Master Chief

o.O
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Dood! I'm another alt of Albion Hero!
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/13/2007 9:01:03 PM | message detail
Damn it all, I accidentally voted for Liquid! I'm sorry, Yuna!
---
yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lopen | Posted 10/13/2007 9:01:25 PM | message detail
OMG YES. <3 <3 <3 Master Chief
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
adamjaxe | Posted 10/13/2007 9:01:28 PM | message detail
Master Chief 27.27% 3
Yuna 27.27% 3
Liquid Snake 9.09% 1
Alucard 36.36% 4
TOTAL VOTES 11

ZOMG Alucard upset
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\ Axe With Tha Hax /
Play me on Pro 6!
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/13/2007 9:01:32 PM | message detail
Wtf shouldn't Yuna be getting the bracket vote and Liquid the MGS fanboy vote?
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SC2k7: 88/128, tied for 1364th
Today's Pick: Mega Man > Knux (whoops)
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/13/2007 9:01:45 PM | message detail
yesss master chief noble nine breaker confirmed
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/13/2007 9:02:18 PM | message detail
From YoAriel33 Posted 10/14/2007 12:01:03 AM #363
Damn it all, I accidentally voted for Liquid! I'm sorry, Yuna!

i will make sure you regret this for the rest of your days.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
Gaddswell | Posted 10/13/2007 9:02:46 PM | message detail
Yuna in 2nd now.
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Finally a damn bracket!
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
EvilPrinny | Posted 10/13/2007 9:02:53 PM | message detail
guys why are you voting for some stupid girl who stutters more then jimmy from south park?
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Dood! I'm another alt of Albion Hero!
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/13/2007 9:02:56 PM | message detail
naah.. Yuna has got this.
also, WTF Monster Chief
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Oracle Prediction: ~ Monster Chief 36.51% - You? Naah... 23.33% - Arm 20.09% - Plan 20.07%~ Status: ?
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2007 9:03:26 PM | message detail
Chief is doing this with the board vote with the day yet to come

HAIL TO THE CHIEF
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/13/2007 9:03:41 PM | message detail
...what the hell. what makes Liquid perform like this after last match?

---
Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
ZFS | Posted 10/13/2007 9:03:53 PM | message detail
aww yeah yuna


But Master Chief, man. Good grief.

---
let's mosey
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/13/2007 9:04:39 PM | message detail
hey guys, lets all laugh at hochiminh!

---
Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
EvilPrinny | Posted 10/13/2007 9:04:43 PM | message detail
...what the hell. what makes Liquid perform like this after last match?

give the liquid vote stuffers a bit more time befoer you condemn liquid. he only won last match cuz of them
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Dood! I'm another alt of Albion Hero!
emanresU weN | Posted 10/13/2007 9:05:18 PM | message detail
aww yeah Chief

I better be on the leaderboard after this match.
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Go Ducks Go!
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2007 9:05:21 PM | message detail
MC with 40% at the freeze.

Holy crap Chief.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg
Gaddswell | Posted 10/13/2007 9:05:32 PM | message detail
Freeze:

Master Chief 40.24% 604
Yuna 24.12% 362
Liquid Snake 15.32% 230
Alucard 20.32% 305
TOTAL VOTES 1501

Chief over 40%!
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Finally a damn bracket!
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/13/2007 9:05:36 PM | message detail
Chief over frickin' 40% at the first freeze
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Oracle Prediction: ~ Monster Chief 36.51% - You? Naah... 23.33% - Arm 20.09% - Plan 20.07%~ Status: ?
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/13/2007 9:06:00 PM | message detail
Looks like Chiefs going for another 45%.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
paraboxx | Posted 10/13/2007 9:06:08 PM | message detail
Whew. Yuna (or is that Alucard? (or is that The Plan?)) scared me for a second.

On another note, just saw how the last match turned out...and thank goodness.
I do not liek Mudkipz.
Lopen | Posted 10/13/2007 9:06:11 PM | message detail
Master Chief over 40% at the freeze! Oh my gawd! ^_^ ^_^ ^_^ ^_^

... what?
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
smitelf | Posted 10/13/2007 9:06:27 PM | message detail
Pic factor again? Liquid's pic is pretty bad in this match.
---
Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/13/2007 9:06:27 PM | message detail
The picture threw me off when I was trying to speed vote. Not the first time in the round, too. Ugh...
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Keno316 | Posted 10/13/2007 9:06:28 PM | message detail
Man, Ganondorf is just doomed at this point.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/13/2007 9:06:29 PM | message detail
**** yeah Chief, dominate this ****.
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SC2k7: 88/128, tied for 1364th
Today's Pick: Mega Man > Knux (whoops)
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/13/2007 9:06:47 PM | message detail
also wow chef
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
EvilPrinny | Posted 10/13/2007 9:06:51 PM | message detail
damn, Chief has REALLY gotten stronger... I cant believe it
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Dood! I'm another alt of Albion Hero!
Draco1214 | Posted 10/13/2007 9:06:57 PM | message detail
So anybody still doubt the power of Master Chief in this format now?
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Currently Playing: Fire Emblem Path of Raidance (replay), Wild Arms 3, Persona 3
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/13/2007 9:07:11 PM | message detail
So... MC wins the finals with 45% of the vote? <_<
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/13/2007 9:07:37 PM | message detail
Master Chief should change his name to Master Ass Kicker.

MAK > Link. Believe.

---
Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Eggplant Lord | Posted 10/13/2007 9:07:58 PM | message detail
From PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/13/2007 9:03:41 PM | #376
...what the hell. what makes Liquid perform like this after last match?

Casual SFF.

___
*watches*
o_o
Who Cares? | Posted 10/13/2007 9:08:14 PM | message detail
Ugh, Ganondorf>Dante in the Quarterfinals now looks extremely stupid! >_<
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Current Points: 155
Maximum Possible Points: 723/768
RockMFR 5 | Posted 10/13/2007 9:08:25 PM | message detail
MC/Ganon/Snake/Sonic is going to be so incredibly epic.
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Save the cheerleader, save the world. o_0
The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/13/2007 9:08:39 PM | message detail
We're only 5 minutes in, but if Liquid can finish significantly behind Alucard, it does give me a smidgen more hope in Luigi. If two guys who were equal a few weeks ago are suddenly a handful of percentage points apart now, why can't it happen in other matches? Replacing Mudkip with Chief/Yuna certainly changes the entire voting dynamic, so we have no idea what may happen.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lopen | Posted 10/13/2007 9:09:05 PM | message detail
Just be happy I'm not Black Turtlelike, you'd never hear the end of this from me. GOO MC GOOO!

Chief is looking better than Mario here. And with Alucard's board vote and last round in mind, he's only looking to go up from here.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
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