GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 518
| ZFS | Posted 10/12/2007 5:21:04 PM | message detail |
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Oh, good lord. I didn't realize that Crono had been losing that many updates to Zero. Vincent will be fun to watch. --- let's mosey |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/12/2007 5:21:57 PM | message detail |
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If this trend keeps up for much longer Raiden will have a bigger lead on HK-47 than Crono has on Zero. --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg |
| TexasAggie | Posted 10/12/2007 5:23:24 PM | message detail |
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Squall may take out sonic first, but ganon's gotta be the one that
makes the finals. Even with this format and boost, I just cant see
chief getting past sonic, squall, or ganon. --- Contest pts: 115 (leaderboard position #27) Today: Cloud>Jill |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/12/2007 5:33:59 PM | message detail |
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Hey, Zero won updates against Mario and Megaman too! And probably Sonic
as well as he got closer to Sonic than he got to any of the other Noble
Niners he's faced! --- Character Battle VI -- Points: 127/184 -- T-1031 (192 way) Bracket: Crono > Zero -- Vote: Crono |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/12/2007 5:34:48 PM | message detail |
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To Knuckles's credit, the entire Sonic Team has been unimpressive so
far this contest...and to Magus's credit, CT looked like it was more in
force in 2k5 than now or last year. That said, can't blame you for
being skeptical on those match-ups anymore, but it's still hard to
argue about Vincent and Squall being approximate equals when we saw
them have a tight duel before and last year suggested they are still
pretty close even after KH2 and DoC were released. You really think that announcement will make a difference? Everybody knew he would make the roster. There are thirty-five pages worth of topics about Sonic on the SSBB board, and the media has been all over him this week...comparable to Snake's announcement, I would predict, if the SSBB board was around then. Sonic hasn't had a BIG game for him since the Genesis, as opposed to Snake being in a BIG game every time he is IN a game (or even his proxy if you want to count MGS3). Nintendo just welcomed Sonic into the Nintendo world like never before...that ALONE is enough for a potential boost, even if Sonic's games have been hitting Nintendo systems lately... ...and as for everybody knowing Sonic was in? Nay, nearly everybody either wished or predicted Sonic would make it, and now that Sonic has granted so many wishes how is he not going to become potentially more favored? Compare that to Snake where nobody was really asking for Snake to be in the game...it's infinitely cool, but how big of a demand was there for him to be in the series aside from Hideo? I'm not arguing for a Snake-like boost, but I wouldn't be shocked if he matched boosts with Snake for this. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2007 5:39:24 PM | message detail |
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btw, what is it youve been arguing since last year bT? That Luigi/Zero (and probably Luigi/Kirby) were flukes. The only explanation I could think of was Luigi riding his 2-seed like Kirby and Dante rode their 1-seeds in 2k5, and Sora/Yuna/Tifa/Zelda rode their 1-seeds in 2k6. TuRtLe ~~~ 141/184 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Zero BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| ZhangJunyi | Posted 10/12/2007 5:41:42 PM | message detail |
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>.> Am I crazy to have Sonic > Ganondorf in the final four in his division? Ganondorf I'm probably bat **** crazy for because I sort of forgot the existence of Snake... but does Sonic have a shot at first there? --- Not changing this sig until Cena, Batista, & Lashley lose their titles. Started: 1/24/07 http://www.dailymotion.com/PrivateBiscuit01 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2007 5:42:06 PM | message detail |
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Character Input Strength Estimate Crono 36.9 56.37% Zero 32.2 43.63% That's where they are now, but Zero looks like he should be gaining until midnight. God I love the Mega Man evening vote. TuRtLe ~~~ 141/184 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Zero BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Keno316 | Posted 10/12/2007 5:42:33 PM | message detail |
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...and as for everybody knowing Sonic was in? Nay, nearly everybody
either wished or predicted Sonic would make it, and now that Sonic has
granted so many wishes how is he not going to become potentially more
favored? Compare that to Snake where nobody was really asking for Snake
to be in the game...it's infinitely cool, but how big of a demand was
there for him to be in the series aside from Hideo? Cause...most people who wanted Sonic to get in would probably have voted for Sonic already anyway? --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/12/2007 5:44:41 PM | message detail |
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Sonic > Ganondorf isn't very likely. If Sonic gets first it'll be
because of his strength, not Snake's weakness. Snake > Ganondorf is
possible, though. That's where they are now, but Zero looks like he should be gaining until midnight. God I love the Mega Man evening vote. Crono usually gets better towards the end of the poll. There's a good shot of him getting back to 37% and keeping the lead over 5000. --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/12/2007 5:45:38 PM | message detail |
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Crono's projected to get over 56% still? Hopefully MM and Zero have
maintained their 2004 proportion then (MM got 56.01%), since Crono
looks like he'll end up around there. --- Character Battle VI -- Points: 127/184 -- T-1031 (192 way) Bracket: Crono > Zero -- Vote: Crono |
| therealmnm | Posted 10/12/2007 5:50:26 PM | message detail |
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You know, I think the ignore function is pretty stupid the way people
are using it for Turtle. I could see if someone was blatantly trolling,
being racist, offensive, or whatever. But just for thinking his
arguments are idiotic? It was your choice to use the ignore function on
him. You shouldn't try to bring the discussion to another topic due to
him creating a stats topic. It's not like he's flaming anyone or
anything... I actually don't mind seeing people post idiotic things. You certainly don't have to respond. But I at least like to know that those idiotic posts are there! Anyways, I would only use the ignore function on people like Gui or somebody like that who is blatantly racist, offensive, or whatever. --- Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend |
| therealmnm | Posted 10/12/2007 5:52:42 PM | message detail |
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As for the contest, it's about damn time one of my favorite characters
has a good match! I almost gave up on keeping up with this contest
after seeing that Bowser match. Too bad Zero is doomed next round, but
at least I have something that I can feel good about. Haven't had that feeling since Knux/Magus... Well, Ryu Hayabusa did kick some Riku ass, but he's not on the same level as the heavy hitters that I like. --- Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/12/2007 5:55:31 PM | message detail |
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Not necessarily, and even if those same people were likely to vote for
Sonic then they are probably going to stay ever truer than before in
this format now. You could flip that logic around and say Snake
wouldn't boost since many people didn't want him in SSBB...which would
be wildly inaccurate. Again, I'm not going to call for Sonic to match Solid's boost from last year, but there's no way he is unphased by this. Have we forgotten how huge SSBB is here? SSB is easily the fourth biggest series, SSBM is the #6/7 game last time we checked (if not bigger by now), SSBB is easily being the most anticipated game on the site right now (especially since the second most anticipated was Halo 3 and it's now out), the site is really behind the Wii now, Sonic has not had a big game to get behind him since Sonic And Knuckles, and we've already seen what it did for Snake...you can't dodge the idea of Sonic possibly boosting big without being blatantly ignorant about the given circumstances. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2007 5:58:41 PM | message detail |
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How are my arguments idiotic? The whole static Mega Man thing is
looking damn good, Zero not dropping last year is looking to be a
certainty, and Pikachu getting to round 3 is also looking very sexy and
very possible. Any ways, I can't be negative today with the way this match is going. And to top it all off, Contra and Super C were announced as unlockable in the upcoming Contra 4. Mmmmmmmmmmmm TuRtLe ~~~ 141/184 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Zero BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/12/2007 5:58:45 PM | message detail |
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BT's not flaming, but I'd wager he knows he's causing unnecessary
friction and doesn't mind continuing it. If he was being racist or some
such, yeah, ignore-worthy instantly. As is...I'm growing to be on the fence about him. I'm done defending the guy, for sure. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/12/2007 5:59:42 PM | message detail |
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I get the feeling that Ganondorf would fold against Noble 9 competition. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| MadGamer_11 | Posted 10/12/2007 6:01:34 PM | message detail |
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I get the feeling that Ganondorf would fold against Noble 9 competition. I agree with this statement but I would also say that he can beat Master Chief and Luigi...and Yuna. --- "To be forgotten is worse than death"-Freya FFIX |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/12/2007 6:01:35 PM | message detail |
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like sephiroth lol no wait i mean link lmaoz --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2007 6:01:43 PM | message detail |
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I still don't get what I'm doing that's so bad. How is Zero to round 4 any more idiotic than Ganondorf winning the male bracket? TuRtLe ~~~ 141/184 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Zero BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/12/2007 6:02:50 PM | message detail |
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It's actually less idiotic. It's "merely" how you handle yourself. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/12/2007 6:02:57 PM | message detail |
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You're the most annoying person here, Turtle. Work on your attitude. Keep all the risky picks you want. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/12/2007 6:03:25 PM | message detail |
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It's not your predictions that are bad so much as the militant touting of them with often weird logic to accompany it --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| therealmnm | Posted 10/12/2007 6:04:49 PM | message detail |
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I didn't necessarily say your posts were idiotic. But people are
ignoring you because they think your posts are idiotic. I don't care
either way myself... --- Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2007 6:43:49 PM | message detail |
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So how long does Mudkip hold the lead? TuRtLe ~~~ 141/184 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Zero BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| creativename | Posted 10/12/2007 7:02:15 PM | message detail |
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Harrich There are thirty-five pages worth of topics about Sonic on the SSBB board, and the media has been all over him this week...comparable to Snake's announcement, I would predict, if the SSBB board was around then. Sonic hasn't had a BIG game for him since the Genesis, as opposed to Snake being in a BIG game every time he is IN a game (or even his proxy if you want to count MGS3). Nintendo just welcomed Sonic into the Nintendo world like never before...that ALONE is enough for a potential boost, even if Sonic's games have been hitting Nintendo systems lately... Good point. I don't know about Sonic not having a big game since the Genesis - the early adventure games seemed well liked at the time. But he's definitely been fading in terms of exposure, until Nintendo deciding to take him as some sort of foster child. Sonic is universally recognized, but hasn't had anything for people to be excited about him for a while until this Brawl thing. Also, did everyone really expect him to be in Brawl? The only thing I saw was a discussion a few topics ago, and people there seemed to have basically abandoned all hope of Sonic being in the game. Essentially acting like those who still thought Sonic would get in were naive. Anyway, even if most thought he'd get in, the actual announcement/trailer means a lot more. BT Character Input Strength Estimate Crono 36.9 56.37% Zero 32.2 43.63% That's where they are now, but Zero looks like he should be gaining until midnight. You're doing this backwards. The estimator is for plugging in strength estimates, and you see how a match would go. Not the other way around. Right now we don't have a formula for that because it's way too complicated - trial and error (or Excel solver) until you match the match percentages is the only way to go. What you plugged in is the same as linearly comparing what they have. Which shouldn't be too far off from a one-on-one estimate anyway though, so 56%-57% for Crono is probably in the ballpark. Also I had totally forgotten that Zero got 47+% on Sonic back in the day. So there's some hope that maybe this isn't Crono dropping a lot. But, Zero got less than that on Luigi last year, and obviously Chrono Trigger overall is dropping. So it's pretty likely Crono isn't what he used to be. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 10/12/2007 7:03:28 PM | message detail |
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It's almost a certainty. Guess I'll have to up my Oracle for Mudkip then, at everyone else's expense. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2007 7:25:38 PM | message detail |
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Zero did bad on Luigi, but Ryu did bad on Bowser, and he seems to have
completely rebounded. Characters just have off years for reasons we
don't quite know yet. TuRtLe ~~~ 141/184 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Zero BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/12/2007 7:31:43 PM | message detail |
| I don't think you can cite one match in a completely different format and say it looks like he has "completely rebounded." |
| Keno316 | Posted 10/12/2007 7:33:03 PM | message detail |
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2k5 seemed more like it was just Bowser severely overperforming than
Ryu being bad. I mean, when you almost beat Snake (even if only just a
weakened one) but then proceed to look so...normal the next year... --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| dlcb1 | Posted 10/12/2007 7:33:54 PM | message detail |
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So getting back to this Zero business, if Zero didn't drop, that means
Luigi is looking pretty good this match. He clearly was SFFed by Sonic,
and even his previous loss to Tifa looked better in retrospect.. --- HMMMmmmMMMMMmmmmm............... |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2007 7:38:24 PM | message detail |
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Actually, his loss to Tifa predicted him getting almost exactly the
percentage he ended up with on Sonic. He just overperformed to hell
against Kirby and Zero for some reason. TuRtLe ~~~ 141/184 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Zero BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2007 7:39:55 PM | message detail |
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Sonic (2005c) VS Luigi (2005c) Sonic has a strength of 38.50. Luigi has a strength of 31.32. Sonic wins with 59.32% of the vote! A win of 18,706 with 100,304 total votes cast. He did about 1% worse than was extrapolated with 2k5. TuRtLe ~~~ 141/184 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Zero BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/12/2007 7:41:21 PM | message detail |
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Nintendo SFF works in strange ways. I've never understood how Bowser
can beat Yoshi with 56%, Yoshi can beat Luigi with 54%, and Luigi can
score the same percentage as Bowser against Kirby. And, of course, how
Yoshi is able to take first in the favorite Mario character polls and
still get SFF'd badly by Megaman. --- Character Battle VI -- Points: 127/184 -- T-1031 (192 way) Bracket: Crono > Zero -- Vote: Crono |
| BDawg | Posted 10/12/2007 7:49:58 PM | message detail |
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Ah heh I really don't know what to say about this, I gotta see what
happens next round. I guess Zero has an outside shot but I'm also
inclined to say CT is just continuing to look like crap. --- Should I start running now? |
| ZFS | Posted 10/12/2007 7:52:42 PM | message detail |
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Zero did bad on Luigi, but Ryu did bad on Bowser, and he seems to have completely rebounded. That is hardly what this seems like. This is Zero performing "well" on what certainly looks like a weaker Crono. We have seen Chrono characters underperforming expectations the entire contest, and if Crono isn't the biggest offender of that today, then Magus certainly would be a few days ago. Attribute it to the format or Chrono Trigger continuing its steady decline, but this performance doesn't even begin to say to me that Zero has "rebounded"; if anything, this shows me exactly how vulnerable Crono looks. Stick Vincent in Crono's place this match -- is he losing updates right now? Is he struggling to extend his lead beyond 5,000? I say not a chance. --- let's mosey |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/12/2007 7:57:26 PM | message detail |
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Megaman and Zero look to have collapsed together last year though, and
MM also looks to have rebounded this year. As for Luigi....I don't
know....who wins, Luigi or Bowser? --- Character Battle VI -- Points: 127/184 -- T-1031 (192 way) Bracket: Crono > Zero -- Vote: Crono |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2007 8:10:51 PM | message detail |
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Once again, how the hell did Mega Man collapse? We saw that Ryu was
back to his old levels, and Sora/Axel were fresh off a new game. He
then went and nearly matched Sonic's percentage on Snake. TuRtLe ~~~ 141/184 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Zero BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/12/2007 8:18:18 PM | message detail |
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Wow. With the current score (36.7% Crono 32.59% Zero), Zero's expected to get 47.03%
in a one-on-one, going by (lol) linear comparison. I know, you can't
really trust such a comparison...but Crono's not looking like the
favorite over Vincent. If Zero actually does resist SFF next round, he
could stand a chance at getting third. I was really expecting Crono to start gaining with the second night vote...not continue falling to the point where he loses 500 votes to Zero. If Zero's lucky, he could get within 4% of Crono. --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/12/2007 8:21:08 PM | message detail |
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Division 5: Round 2 - Match 41 – Luigi vs. Mudkip vs. Ganondorf vs. Vergil Moltar’s Analysis Luigi Round 1 – 45.96% vs. Mudkip, Pit and Tingle Luigi owns three random dudes. Mudkip Round 1 – 27.71% vs. Luigi, Pit, Tingle GameFAQs…likes Mudkipz? Ganondorf Round 1 – 49.10% vs. Vergil, Thrall and Ratchet aww yeah Vergil Round 1 – 19.37% vs. Ganondorf, Thrall and Ratchet Was the best of the worst. Another easy match. There’s only one big question about it, but before I address it, let’s look at the losers first. Well, one of them. Vergil gets crushed here, so let’s now jump to… Mudkip! This Pokemon surprised many people last round by actually not doing bad. It didn’t just not do bad though, it did well! Like, too well, midcarder well. Legitimate strength well. However, it didn’t do Ganondorf or Luigi well, so the joke ends here. Now, between two Nintendo top dogs, only one can take first. Most are banking on Ganondorf to do it. He’s stronger than Luigi, for one. He also has the Zelda backing, while Luigi only gets the Mario backing (lol i know). Ganondorf’s also like the coolest character ever. Of course, some weird stuff could happen and Luigi could steal away first. Or some just plain bat**** insane stuff like Ganon and Luigi splitting votes with each other to the point where Mudkip advances, but neither scenario is all that likely. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Ganondorf > Luigi Moltar’s Prediction is: Ganondorf: 36% - Luigi: 31% - Mudkip: 23% - Vergil: 10% Heroic Mario’s Analysis Damn these Pokethings. Thanks to Bidoof’s shenanigans a couple days ago leading Vincent for an hour, Mudkip has gotten a strange amount of consideration for an upset here. I’m certainly not buying that a freakin’ Pokemon can beat Luigi or Ganondorf even with the possibility for some type of SFF here being high. At the same time, though, if it were to happen, I can’t say I’d be terribly surprised – augh gamefaqs. There’s more to this match than Mudkip, though. What happens here will pretty much determine who ends up coming out of this division. I’m not expecting to see SFF favor one character here dominantly, which is usually with the case with Nintendo characters, but instead more of a split. Ganon and Luigi aren’t going to be at their best here by any means, but I think both of them are strong enough, and have their own distinct fanbases, that both can do well here. But – if for whatever reason Ganon SFFs Luigi into the ground, or vice versa, that damnable Mudkip stands a good shot at moving on here. It’s the “joke vote,” and probably doesn’t have to worry about any sort of SFF at all. Pokemon have been doing well in this contest despite it, and with any chance of that 4chan nonsense, we could see Mudkip getting dangerously close to second place if SFF just completely ruins Ganon or Luigi. I’m not expecting that to happen, though. I think Ganon ends up come out ahead by a couple thousand votes over Luigi. This should, at the very least, put to rest some of the stuff about how Ganon is incapable of getting SFF, or will collapse to just about any Nintendo character he’s up against. dammit mudkip stay away from second Ganon – 30% Luigi – 30% Mudkip – 25% Vergil – 15% Bracket: Ganon > Luigi Vote: Ganon Yoblazer’s Analysis Ah, finally. It's the match that will decide my fate in this contest! If I'm right, I'll be well on my way to avenging what so far has been a disaster of a bracket. If I'm wrong, I'll be eliminated from the Guru contest and my bracket will be *torn* for the eighteenth and final time. What do I think is going to happen? *tears bracket* |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/12/2007 8:21:25 PM | message detail |
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Nah, just kidding. I still think I have a chance, although it's a
pretty small one. My risk, as some of you may know, is picking Luigi to
win today (and, consequently, beat Ganondorf and then Master Chief in
the next two rounds). It might sound crazy, but I don't really see why.
Before putting up a crappy performance against Sonic (a match which
probably had some SFF action going on), Luigi pancaked Zero and beat
Kirby. He ain't a weakling, and I think he'll be able to hold his own
here. While Ganondorf may be indirectly stronger, we've hardly ever
seen this guy in SFF-situations, and I just have this feeling that he's
going to drop the ball. So yeah, I based my risk on SFF. In my defense,
at least we know SFF is something this match will feature
heaping helpings of; I'm just hoping against hope that my Italian
stallion gobbles up the most. Oh, and as for Mudkip. **** him. ^o^ Luigi - 33% Ganondorf - 31% Mudkip - 21% Vergil - 15% Lopen’s Analysis I was thinkin for this match... maybe Luigi or Pigman will have some bad mojo with one another and allow Vergil to slip through, but Vergil didn't look too hot last round... you know what people say did though? This... thing. I don't know what it is, but it has to be stopped. Seeing the crap the cretin beaver pulled last time, I'd say this thing is a very real threat to Luigi or Pigman.. in the first hour or two, anyway. The cretin beaver proved to be pretty worthless after its reserves of cheaters ran out, and I suspect the same will happen with this thing. It looked alright against Luigi, but even look alright he's got a lot of ground to make up... and I'm not so sure if that was this garbage looking good or Luigi looking bad, frankly. Weej barely even doubled Pit last round, I'm not sure how seriously he is to be taken in this format. Or maybe the sick Nintendo split just made him look worse? Well, the sick Nintendo split continues in this match. I wanted to say Weej gets more of the pie than Pigman relative to his strength, but I'm not quite as sure anymore after last round. I still think he will when the big boys come in, but for now Pigman's strength advantage will power through. Alright, point here is this: The Pokemon is not to be feared. Well, maybe Vergil should fear it... man I hope not. I dunno, 30% on Luigi's four pack in a SFF split match or 20% on Ganondorf's? Tough. I've gotta say Vergil makes that scum into seafood soup though. Hell, he'll probably kick Luigi's and Ganondorf's ass too. Oh yeah, the honchos here are censoring the violence for the kiddies... but rest assured, the true to life match pic is Vergil standing above three bloody carcasses. That all amounts to Vergil winning with 82%... too bad GameFAQs can't add votes right. Lopen's prediction: Bloody Pigman Carcass - 33.90% Bloody Plumber Carcass - 26.21% Vergil - 22.49% Bloody Thing Carcass - 17.50% Karma Hunter’s Analysis Luigi The eternal understudy lets Mudkip get worryingly close to him last round (despite the victory technically being a very comfortable one). Not only may he be aiming to potentially upend Ganondorf, doubtful as it may be... but is he vulnerable to upset from Mudkip? Mudkip The next GODDAMN POKEMON gets worryingly blah blah Luigi blah blah... Can he upend Luigi and be one of potentially TWO Pokes that make the third round? haha Mewtwo argh Ganondorf Ganondorf puts up a pretty dominating performance last round, and all but seals a first place here outside of wacky SFF shenanigans. The question is how well it will stand up against legitimate competition. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/12/2007 8:22:15 PM | message detail |
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Vergil Pretty much out of it here, Vergil should look good nonetheless being up against three Nintendos and all. Not that he should finish higher than dead last, but all the same... I've bet against Pokemon every round. Every match. It always fails. I have no regrets. That being said, I feel Luigi will get SFFed here. He has never held up that well with it in the past, outside of perhaps the exception of Kirby. Ganondorf *can* SFF I feel, leech that he is. And Mudkip... Pokemon seems to be as immune to SFF as FFVII. I'm taking Mudkip here to advance. He's got 4chan, recognizability, the best picture in the match, and I hate it. All the things are in place for it to advance. And hopefully that'll jinx it. <_< Karma Hunter's Vote: LUIGI OR GANONDORF, WHATEVER'S CLOSEST TO LOSING TO MUDKIP Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Ganondorf with 39%, Mudkip with 26%, Luigi with 21%, Vergil with 14% ...how disturbing. Upset Probability: 65% Not that I'm confident in ANY result here. Luigi can easily come in second, or even perhaps first! Ganondorf not placing at all would be somewhat awesome if we don't remember it comes at the expense of Mudkip advancing... Transience’s Analysis I've been saying for a while that I think "joke characters" are fairly static -- they pull in a certain percentage regardless of strength or trends. CATS has long been the example, and Sephiroth did *much* better once CATS wasn't there to take up percentage. people perceived Link to be doing bad for the same thing vs. Bidoof, even though he nearly doubled Vincent despite Zelda being in the same poll. enter Mudkip. Mudkip pulled nearly 28% in a match with Luigi. in this match, Luigi and Ganondorf are going to be splitting votes. if Mudkip even approaches that 28% number again, one of them has a very real chance of being eliminated. if one of them "SFFs" the other, it might not even be a close match. Mudkip has the potential to be very, very scary. if he advances, he'll be against three decently strong characters that will be splitting votes fairly evenly -- can u say Mudkip to round 4 there's one thing that bothers me about the 'kip, though -- he didn't have "joke trends". yeah, he did great in the first hour, but he wasn't beating Luigi the first hour and then dropping like hell when the day vote came. he got 28.55% of the votes in the first hour and about the same amount come daytime. he actually had some 33% updates overnight while Bidoof went from 25% to 9%. (though to be fair, I think 4chan was down during the opening hours of the Luigi poll) Mudkip may be a horrible internet fad, but it's also a legitimate character that I think has natural strength outside of "lol mudkipz". if that's the case, it probably doesn't have much of a chance when you introduce a character from the most popular series on the site. Ganondorf may not have the most dedicated fans (shut up moltar), but he's never shown a weakness to anything but Link. he even held up pretty good against Samus. beyond that, there's the question of who's higher up in the Nintendo hierarchy -- Luigi or Ganondorf? I had Luigi for a good portion of the bracketmaking period because I didn't trust the 'dorf too much, but the more I thought about it, the more impressive I realized he was outside of that Link match. Luigi probably gets killed by Mario, too. given how Link beat Mario back when and how Zelda >> Mario on this site, I think Ganondorf can beat Luigi fairly easily. the question will be if he "SFFs" him hard enough to lose to Mudkip? |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/12/2007 8:22:43 PM | message detail |
| it's certainly not out of the realm of
possibility, but I'm sticking with Weegee here. I'm not convinced on
Mudkip bringing in that same 28%, though he might pull it off anyway
just due to the shared fanbase. Mudkip's trends don't indicate someone
that can repeat that percentage like Bidoof did. now, L-Block, on the other hand... Mudkip's got a chance Luigi's votes will be split but he should hang on transience's prediction: Ganondorf with 38.01%, Luigi with 27.65%, Mudkip with 24.60%, Vergil with 9.74% Crew Consensus: Ganondorf > Luigi, but POKEFEAR lies near. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/12/2007 8:30:40 PM | message detail |
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Damn you Pokemon that aren't Mewtwo --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg |
| smitelf | Posted 10/12/2007 8:30:54 PM | message detail |
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There's lots of variation in the crew's predictions today. Even one for
Mudkip! It's fun to see such diversity. And Lopen has Vergil beating
Mudkip...interesting. Mudkip is definitely making this match
interesting, anyway. --- Official Queen ***** of the Universe! Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21 |
| GyratingGrandma | Posted 10/12/2007 8:44:06 PM | message detail |
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I just keep getting more and more confident in Link > Vincent ... this is awesome. This is Gamefaqs. --- mmm feel the vibration baby |
| transience | Posted 10/12/2007 8:44:26 PM | message detail |
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let it be known that I'm scared to death of Mudkip today. these opening
minutes could really disturb the aitch emms and Lopens and yoblazers of
the world. --- SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi. "All I can do... is just sit with them." |
| Keno316 | Posted 10/12/2007 8:44:30 PM | message detail |
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..Oh, GREAT time for your nightvote to pick up Crono... -_- --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| GyratingGrandma | Posted 10/12/2007 8:46:08 PM | message detail |
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It'll disturb me too tran-man. I need Luigi to advance to make me feel
better about MC > Yuna. Though I guess Mudkip would kinda share a
fanbase with Ganon moreso than the other two as well... I don't know,
I'd just feel better with Luigi. --- mmm feel the vibration baby |
| ZFS | Posted 10/12/2007 8:49:28 PM | message detail |
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I just keep getting more and more confident in Link > Vincent ... this is awesome. This is Gamefaqs. aww yeah (we'll see gamefaqs in about 10 minutes augh) --- let's mosey |
