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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 517

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2007 10:32:30 PM | message detail
No more Raiden.

More Protoman!

Like I pointed out earlier, he outperformed Lloyd on a stronger Zero. Think about it, Zero is probably the absolute worst person Proto could have drawn. Even worse than if he got thrown against Mega Man.

Proto has potential, as opposed to that loser Raiden who blew his shot by almost letting Sam Fisher come back on him and is getting ready to have an epic showdown with HK-47 for third today.

TuRtLe
~~~
141/184 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Zero
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
red sox 777 | Posted 10/11/2007 10:33:44 PM | message detail
Wait, so if Raiden > Big Boss.....then.....Raiden > Magus?

Crono/Magus not being SFF confirmed!
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 127/184 -- T-1031 (192 way)
Bracket: Crono > Zero -- Vote: Crono
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2007 10:33:58 PM | message detail
I think something we're missing here is that this has been the first good picture for Zero since 2004. As long as he doesn't get MMZ pictures next round, he has an outside shot at the upset.

TuRtLe
~~~
141/184 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Zero
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
HaRRicH | Posted 10/11/2007 10:34:29 PM | message detail
1) 23%.
2) I'm taking even a SFF'd Pac-Man over Belmont nowadays.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
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__hiei__ | Posted 10/11/2007 10:34:57 PM | message detail
If Raiden > Big Boss,Mario's performance is not much better than Crono's at all.
Warsola | Posted 10/11/2007 10:35:39 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Haste_2 | Posted 10/11/2007 10:35:52 PM | message detail
Big Boss' direct expected percentage on Mario (Round 1): 28.43%. Raiden's direct expected percentage on Crono (Round 1): 29.49%. It's plain as day that Big Boss looked stronger.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
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Warsola | Posted 10/11/2007 10:35:58 PM | message detail
I need sleep...lol me >_>
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And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes!
Lopen | Posted 10/11/2007 10:37:46 PM | message detail
Not really. Especially when you consider that having a SFFed Pac-Man in there might make Mario look a bit weaker than he should relative to Wander and Big Boss.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2007 10:38:34 PM | message detail
Once again though, for all we know Crono could drop down to 35% with the day vote (however unlikely that may be I think I would orgasm). After 2k5, Zero/Magus had potential for a good match, but now I'd take Zero to at the very least 60-40 Magus. As for Raiden/Big Boss, Naked Snake looked like a decent midcarder as opposed to BB's fodderificness.

TuRtLe
~~~
141/184 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Zero
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
red sox 777 | Posted 10/11/2007 10:39:46 PM | message detail
If that's the case, then Crono really is very far from Magus and......his prospects looks much brighter.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 127/184 -- T-1031 (192 way)
Bracket: Crono > Zero -- Vote: Crono
red sox 777 | Posted 10/11/2007 10:40:59 PM | message detail
So......what percentage does Magus get on Link now, with the same picture?
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 127/184 -- T-1031 (192 way)
Bracket: Crono > Zero -- Vote: Crono
Lopen | Posted 10/11/2007 10:42:11 PM | message detail
It's obvious Naked Snake > Raiden. That's not the issue here.

I do think MGS2 Raiden would be doing a lot better though. Because of the common name and because MGS4 Raiden looks kinda far removed from MGS2 Raiden, I wouldn't be surprised if he lost a lot of votes from the MGS4 look. Not everyone has seen the trailers.

... and he loses more still from the coffee maker look of this match.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2007 10:44:45 PM | message detail
Raiden losing votes is all right to me, especially after the picture Zero got against Luigi last year.

TuRtLe
~~~
141/184 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Zero
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
HaRRicH | Posted 10/11/2007 10:45:46 PM | message detail
Raiden's picture almost looks like they made HK's picture 3D, that's how bad this is.
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Lopen | Posted 10/11/2007 10:50:33 PM | message detail
There's was nothing wrong with Zero's picture. Yeah so he's got his back turned, he still looks badass and you're not going to mistake him for anything. Even Zero's worst has nothing on pictures worth complaining about.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2007 10:51:04 PM | message detail
But what does Raiden have outside of his much worse official art?

TuRtLe
~~~
141/184 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Zero
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lopen | Posted 10/11/2007 10:53:43 PM | message detail
Screenshots + photoshop? I admit he doesn't have the best pictures out there, but I threw together a better MGS2 picture for him with 5 minutes.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Lopen | Posted 10/11/2007 10:57:28 PM | message detail
And hell as much as I hate the melting art even that's better than this toaster ****. (Not last round's pic though)
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2007 10:57:40 PM | message detail
Damn I hope so hard that Zero doesn't get a MMZ picture next round. I would consider suicide if that were the case.

TuRtLe
~~~
141/184 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Zero
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Warsola | Posted 10/11/2007 10:59:17 PM | message detail
So....if Zero decides to turn into Sonic during the day, he could come back >_>;
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And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2007 11:01:36 PM | message detail
I would hate for Zero to come back here, as it would strongly imply Crono being at the Dante/Yoshi/Zero level. I wanted Zero to look good, but not too good today. Right now he's doing just that. As long as he stays between 4-6% of Crono, he'll have met my expectations.

TuRtLe
~~~
141/184 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Zero
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lopen | Posted 10/11/2007 11:05:15 PM | message detail
Okay, no chance in hell of it happening... but how does Zero beating Crono make him look less good for next round though? What, you think if Crono's not strong enough he won't be able to split enough of the vote from Vincent? That's silly.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude I probably shouldn't even bother asking this.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/11/2007 11:08:11 PM | message detail
Crono is doing everything in his power to not hit 39%.
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CB6 - 130/184; Oracle - 30th
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2007 11:08:14 PM | message detail
Just by judging where they are in relation to HK and Raiden, this match is right now going to expectations, which means Crono and Vincent still have a close match which could let Zero slip by. With as strong as Vincent has been looking, Zero would need Crono to be at or around his 2k6 value to effectively split the Square vote. The weaker Crono looks in relation to Vincent, the more likely it is that Vincent gets enough of the Square pie to put the match away.

TuRtLe
~~~
141/184 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Zero
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lopen | Posted 10/11/2007 11:12:12 PM | message detail
W-w-w-wait.. you're assuming Zero to be at his 2k6 value and hoping for him to get through? That's a pretty sick split you're hoping for, man. I always figured you thought 2k6 was a fluke and were hoping for the 2k5 value.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Lopen | Posted 10/11/2007 11:13:14 PM | message detail
Nevermind, misread that.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2007 11:21:51 PM | message detail
Yeah, if Zero's 2k6 match was legit, he would have no shot at advancing, but I think right now he's showing that he's at least still where he was in 2k5, and that's high enough to be able to advance past a weakened Vincent.

This is all assuming no funny business with Link or Bacon screwing me with a bad pic.

TuRtLe
~~~
141/184 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Zero
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2007 11:27:16 PM | message detail
Going by Morgoth's thing on creative's site, and assuming Zero and Crono end at 33.5 and 37.5, they are expected to 55/45 which is about where I would have expected Zero to fall on Crono anyway. Assuming Vincent = Crono (accounts for a small Crono drop from last year) and given the low votals of their 2k5 match, that should be enough that Zero should at least be in the running.

TuRtLe
~~~
141/184 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Zero
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lopen | Posted 10/12/2007 12:08:20 AM | message detail
Heh, so I decided to submit a feedback ticket:

It would be nice if the top entries section for the contest stats page for this contest showed who the top people picked as their number two finisher as well, as that is part of the final pick.

I dunno if that would raise excessive formatting issues (I'd imagine not, that first column is WAY bigger than it needs to be anyway), but changing the one name listed under final pick to Link > Cloud for instance would be cool.

Or 1. Link 2. Cloud, perhaps? Thank you for your consideration.


I dunno man, I thought it'd be cool at least. More interesting than just seeing everyone having Link. Not that most of em wouldn't be 1. Link 2. Cloud, but you know.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/12/2007 1:42:25 AM | message detail
It won't be proven until next round but I suspect Crono and Zero's declines are being masked by each other. I could see both of them being dropped next round.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
Ranked: #16th in the Character Battle 2006. (207 Points)
__hiei__ | Posted 10/12/2007 2:05:42 AM | message detail
well,this is weird

Raiden is now consistently getting 19%+ updates
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/12/2007 2:15:41 AM | message detail
Zero and Crono are both plummeting in %.

Well, maybe plummeting is harsh, >_>, but they're not increasing.
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__hiei__ | Posted 10/12/2007 2:27:24 AM | message detail
Zero is being hit harder than Crono though
Gaddswell | Posted 10/12/2007 2:38:04 AM | message detail
Crono under 39% now.
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Finally a damn bracket!
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/12/2007 2:54:11 AM | message detail
Zero cut! Crono with a 29% update!
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Finally a damn bracket!
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
__hiei__ | Posted 10/12/2007 3:03:19 AM | message detail
lol

now Crono with a 45% update and Zero 25%

this is the most random match ever
SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/12/2007 3:06:45 AM | message detail
Putting this in perspective. Mega Man will likely have scored more against Yoshi, Knuckles and KOS-MOS than Crono could manage Zero and two bottom shelf fodder.

And MM is having a hard time keeping himself in the NN as it is. >__>
With Magus and Frog's jobbing this could finally be the year for Crono to fall.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
Ranked: #16th in the Character Battle 2006. (207 Points)
Forceful Dragon | Posted 10/12/2007 3:08:14 AM | message detail
Maybe Crono will lose to a non-NN, and I seriously considered giving Vincent the nod this time around, but I figured Crono had 1 good year left in him. It looks like it will be close.

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Eff Dee
Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/12/2007 3:11:11 AM | message detail
Quick, announce Chrono Trigger remake (even if it is only in Virtual Console) or a new Chrono game, Squeenix!

-_-
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
evp | Posted 10/12/2007 3:19:37 AM | message detail
Guys at Sqeenix are just milking every drop of contest mileage they can from Chrono Trigger. I 'm sure they have a direct sequel ready to be published just waiting in reserve 'till Crono is about to fold against a non NN. Chrono Break is going to be out the same day Vincent and Crono do battle. BELIEVE.
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 10/12/2007 3:51:11 AM | message detail
But why Crono is that strong?He was in one game and that was more than 10 years before...
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/12/2007 4:19:44 AM | message detail
I really wish Raiden would have gotten a...human look. I don't think it's too optimistic to think he'd be close to 20% right now with a normal headshot.

With today's picture though, it's a wonder Zero isn't doing even better than this, ha.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
ZhangJunyi | Posted 10/12/2007 4:49:17 AM | message detail
WHAT!? Zero isn't beating Crono!? ...Black Turtle lied to me...

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transience | Posted 10/12/2007 4:51:23 AM | message detail
aww yeah Crono's day vote
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Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/12/2007 6:21:34 AM | message detail
tag KB
red sox 777 | Posted 10/12/2007 6:33:58 AM | message detail
Crono didn't do much with his night vote, but he's holding up alright with the day vote here. In round 1, from here to the end, Crono fell 0.31%, so I'd say he's looking to end this match around 38%, matching Vincent's performance on Zelda/The Boss/Tails. Hopefully BT is right about 2k6 Zero being a fluke.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 127/184 -- T-1031 (192 way)
Bracket: Crono > Zero -- Vote: Crono
red sox 777 | Posted 10/12/2007 6:37:49 AM | message detail
As for the other characters, Zero was unchanged in percentage from here to the end, HK-47 lost 0.56%, and Raiden lost 0.30%.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 127/184 -- T-1031 (192 way)
Bracket: Crono > Zero -- Vote: Crono
swirIdude | Posted 10/12/2007 7:46:29 AM | message detail
These boring matches, shockingly, bore me.

Now if all these characters were in SSBB, it would be interesting.
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Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/12/2007 8:38:51 AM | message detail
So guyz

What's worse: Cloud > Link (hochi) or Zero > whoever (Turdle)?
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