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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 517

Keno316 | Posted 10/12/2007 1:40:10 PM | message detail
woo overreactions

Quiet! I'm am RAGED!!!!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
trannyscience | Posted 10/12/2007 1:41:13 PM | message detail
check out this logic -- "if Crono beats Mario, Cloud beats Link."
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
red sox 777 | Posted 10/12/2007 1:45:58 PM | message detail
Crono's performance really isn't all that bad here......he's getting a similar percentage as Megaman, and his opponents are Zero/Raiden/HK compared to SFF'd Yoshi/Knuckles and KOS-MOS.... and just a little lower than Sonic, who had slightly weaker competition.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 127/184 -- T-1031 (192 way)
Bracket: Crono > Zero -- Vote: Crono
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/12/2007 1:54:22 PM | message detail
Whoa, this is looking a bit more money for Vincent.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/12/2007 2:10:53 PM | message detail
It's looking like Link > Vincent > Zero > Crono next round if I had to wager a guess, though I guess anything could happen.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/12/2007 2:13:16 PM | message detail
Haven't really been paying attention to the match. But Zero has actually gained on Crono's lead slightly since the ASV started apparently? Hahahaha
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/12/2007 2:13:30 PM | message detail
Have you guys realized that Zero is closer to Crono than Zelda was to Vincent? Luigi > Ganondorf CONFIRMED! (I wish)

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Keno316 | Posted 10/12/2007 2:14:20 PM | message detail
It's looking like Link > Vincent > Zero > Crono next round if I had to wager a guess, though I guess anything could happen.


Sadly possible...but I still think Link is gonna hinder Zero too much.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/12/2007 2:16:56 PM | message detail
I don't know, I always thought Link helps Zero's cause as much as he hurts him. With a strong character like Link in the poll to reduce the other 3 to as little votes as possible, a fan-favorite character like Zero is in the best position to make an upset.
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
red sox 777 | Posted 10/12/2007 2:16:57 PM | message detail
I really doubt that would happen.....Crono's comfortably beating Zero right now, and I really doubt Crono and Vincent's fanbases overlap that much. Link is in the poll, after all.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 127/184 -- T-1031 (192 way)
Bracket: Crono > Zero -- Vote: Crono
trannyscience | Posted 10/12/2007 2:18:46 PM | message detail
you say that like Vincent isn't a fan-favourite, though.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
Buzzup | Posted 10/12/2007 2:20:07 PM | message detail
It's just so sad to think about the Noble Nine finally ending. ;_;
So go NN, go Crono!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/12/2007 2:20:46 PM | message detail
Vincent's definitely a fan favorite. It's Crono that' screwed here
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Keno316 | Posted 10/12/2007 2:21:04 PM | message detail
NN won't die in my heart til Crono loses one on one.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
red sox 777 | Posted 10/12/2007 2:21:37 PM | message detail
It's really too early to proclaim the fall of the Noble Nine. Wait until Vincent actually beats Crono. I mean, every year we get near-elites hyped to beat a Noble Niner, and it hasn't happened yet.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 127/184 -- T-1031 (192 way)
Bracket: Crono > Zero -- Vote: Crono
trannyscience | Posted 10/12/2007 2:22:10 PM | message detail
I wouldn't write Crono off that quickly. I mean, if he was at 38% instead of 36, would he be in good shape? I think that match is fairly unpredictable. I'd call Vincent the favourite, but I wouldn't say Crono has no chance.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/12/2007 2:30:17 PM | message detail
Zero won 5 updates in a row.

Hey guys, remember when Crono didn't fall too badly against Mario?
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
trannyscience | Posted 10/12/2007 2:35:16 PM | message detail
yeah, Crono had a horrible day vote last year too. didn't stop him from nearly beating Sonic.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
red sox 777 | Posted 10/12/2007 2:37:42 PM | message detail
Crono's day vote today actually appears better than last year- he looks to end around 37% today, falling a little over 2% off his peak. Last year he gave away 4.5% to Bowser on a weekend.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 127/184 -- T-1031 (192 way)
Bracket: Crono > Zero -- Vote: Crono
creativename | Posted 10/12/2007 2:38:06 PM | message detail
I have a feeling that the gap between Alucard and Liquid is going to be over half a percent this time. Which isn't much but should look huge compared to 3 votes.

Also I don't think Yuna is a lock here. After all, Master Chief blowing her out could well mean that Yuna just sucks in this format, instead of MC being a beast. I think the latter is more likely, but you can't be too sure. And if it's the former both Alucard and Liquid might get Yuna. Of course I don't see that happening - I can't imagine Liquid beating Yuna. But her lead over them might be fairly modest.

It's brining Square fans to the site, that's bound to mean something.

That number has to be very low compared to overall traffic though, and then how many of those people will both vote and have their vote affected? This really seems to be grasping at straws level. I think Dante hurting Ada more for whatever reason is a more reasonable thing.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/12/2007 2:38:48 PM | message detail
Crono/Vincent is still up in the air. It's hard for me to even call Vincent a favorite because of the Noble 9 mythos and because he didn't perform all that well yesterday. I think it's funny that this match is often discussed as if Link is not a part of it, whereas I think he's the X-Factor (actually, it's Link. He's the A-Z Factor). The beating Link will put on Zero automatically elements him from contention. In addition, if Link has just a bit more overlap with Crono than Vincent (silent heroes, same console, etc.), that might be as big of an advantage for Vincent as his fan favorite status. Needless to say, this one is easily becoming the most anticipated match of the contest.
creativename | Posted 10/12/2007 2:39:20 PM | message detail
Also what's with this massive Vincent bandwagon now.

Where the hell were all you people during the first hour of the Bidoof debacle??

Crono/Vincent was a toss-up before the Bidoof fiasco, it was a toss-up while Bidoof was leading Vincent one hour in, and it's a toss-up now.
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creativename | Posted 10/12/2007 2:41:30 PM | message detail
It's looking like Link > Vincent > Zero > Crono next round if I had to wager a guess, though I guess anything could happen.

I really can't see Zero overtaking Crono next round. There's no reason for it, and while Crono isn't blowing Zero out here it's not like Zero's breathing down his neck.

Zero's best hope is just format-induced chaos. I don't see him pulling it off.
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ZFS | Posted 10/12/2007 2:47:12 PM | message detail
I'm behind Vincent all the way here, but Crono's not quite out of this one yet. But that said, Vincent has a lot going in his favor. Even if you ignore that at the least his performances have been equal to what Crono has done, there's a lot of those factors dealing with Link, the size of the dedicated fanbase or whatever that I think play well into Vincent's favor.

I'd say it's 50/50 here, but Vincent looks like he's got a clear edge right now, I think.

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let's mosey
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/12/2007 2:55:31 PM | message detail
It's a shame Zero's so much weaker now. If this were his 2k3/2k4 self, he might be en route to a victory here.

I don't know. The PS2 version of Resident Evil 4 is not only the one that sold the most (by a solid margin, I believe), it also has Ada as a playable character, as opposed to the GC version. The Wii version shouldn't be a big factor compared to the other versions.

Add to that both of them being Capcom, and I can totally see Dante taking a lot of Ada votes.


PS2 ~= 650K
GCN ~= 1M
Wii ~= 450K

In America. I'd definitely see that most of it is Nintendo. Moreso the Balthier, anyway.

And company SFF doesn't really matter that much unless they actually share a fanbase.

I don't know, I always thought Link helps Zero's cause as much as he hurts him. With a strong character like Link in the poll to reduce the other 3 to as little votes as possible, a fan-favorite character like Zero is in the best position to make an upset.

Heh, people thought this would help Phoenix and Magus against Mario, too.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/12/2007 2:59:04 PM | message detail
I think it's more a notion of "casual SFF" rather than "company SFF." I'm not sure I buy it, especially when Ada's big competitor is from a game that seems relatively uncared for here. Just because it has Final Fantasy on the box doesn't mean people have to give a hoot. Right, Vaan?
creativename | Posted 10/12/2007 2:59:33 PM | message detail
the size of the dedicated fanbase or whatever

The dedicated fanbase theory has failed so hard this contest.

And if anything, Vincent's fanbase is more casual than Crono's. Which, from what we've seen, is better. If Vincent's fanbase was more dedicated that would probably be bad or neutral.
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trannyscience | Posted 10/12/2007 3:04:23 PM | message detail
The dedicated fanbase theory has failed so hard this contest.

eh, not really. it's failed when looking at characters that are cult as hell vs. more known, popular characters, but look at someone like Peach. nobody cares about her and it shows. I pick her over Meta-Knight one-on-one every time, but in a format like this? ouch. same goes for Wario. meanwhile, it's *helped* a guy like Ryu who seemingly has a core base that will vote him over everything. and it's helped Master Chief immensely.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2007 3:06:15 PM | message detail
I think you guys are missing the point here. If Zero can get to within 5% of Crono with no Link in the poll, he would be within 3% if Link was here. Add to that the fact that Vincent and Crono will be SFFing eachother, Zero's chances look as good as they ever did. Everyone around here seems to be thinking that his 2k6 value was legit, yet he's clearly proving that it wasn't.

And I highly doubt this is Crono dropping to Dante levels judging by where HK and Raiden are. Crono/Vincent seems as up in the air as it ever did, but Zero's proving that his 2k5 value is likely where he's at today.

TuRtLe
~~~
141/184 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Zero
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Haste_2 | Posted 10/12/2007 3:09:50 PM | message detail
Meta Knight would beat Peach 1-on-1. =P

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
trannyscience | Posted 10/12/2007 3:16:48 PM | message detail
maybe in two months!

er, I mean four
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
red sox 777 | Posted 10/12/2007 3:20:56 PM | message detail
Why would Link take away more votes from Crono than Zero? Just compare Link/Crono and Link/Megaman (and Link/Magus lol).
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 127/184 -- T-1031 (192 way)
Bracket: Crono > Zero -- Vote: Crono
TexasAggie | Posted 10/12/2007 3:21:14 PM | message detail
lol Crono.


Vincent's a lock. I love CT as much as the next guy, but that game is OLD. Im 20, and that game came out when I was 7. In fact, its legal to be posting on these boards, and have been 9 months old when CT released.. He had a great run, but its unreasonable to assume he can continue dominating on a site where the demographic stays constant. I think Vincent, Ganon, and Squall could all beat Crono head to head.
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Contest pts: 115 (leaderboard position #27)
Today: Cloud>Jill
creativename | Posted 10/12/2007 3:23:45 PM | message detail
I pick her over Meta-Knight one-on-one every time, but in a format like this?

This makes absolutely no sense.

Also this Meta Knight hardcare fanbase thing is one of the craziest things in this contest so far. Name me THREE PEOPLE who mentioned anything about "hardcore" fanbase for Meta Knight - Meta Knight! - *before* that match.

I thought Meta Knight had a good chance there and this never entered my head, nor did I ever heard anyone bring it up. It simply had to do with his great character design and Kirby proxy potential.

I'm sorry to say, Meta Knight hardcore fanbase is just post-facto explanation rubbish.
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/12/2007 3:23:47 PM | message detail
Poor Crono. Zero's getting 40 vote cuts on him.
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Draco1214 | Posted 10/12/2007 3:25:13 PM | message detail
The dedicated fanbase theory has failed so hard this contest.

Think Phoenix Wright beats Bomberman one-on-one this contest? What about Ryu and Bowser?

...and PYRAMID HEAD.
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trannyscience | Posted 10/12/2007 3:25:58 PM | message detail
I'm sorry to say, Meta Knight hardcore fanbase is just post-facto explanation rubbish.

then what about the people who said it beforehand? that was the only argument for Meta-Knight -- maybe you missed it -- that people actually cared about him (it?) as opposed to Peach. the difference is that most thought Sephiroth would bring in a crazy huge percentage and chose CATS as the person most likely to benefit.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
creativename | Posted 10/12/2007 3:26:31 PM | message detail
Why would Link take away more votes from Crono than Zero? Just compare Link/Crono and Link/Megaman (and Link/Magus lol).

Yeah, Link would be more likely to take from Zero if anything. Though I don't know if he'll really hurt either disproportionately.

BT's point about if Link was here difference might only be 3 points is good, but I still don't see any reason for Link to hurt Crono more than he does Zero.
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creativename | Posted 10/12/2007 3:33:28 PM | message detail
then what about the people who said it beforehand?

As I said, name three people.

I was perhaps the most vocal "Meta Knight has a shot" guy here, almost everyone else was obsessed with CATS in that spot. I kept trying to bring up Meta Knight discussion but only a handful of people showed interest.

It's amazing how a match that discounts the hardcore people theory - because that's what made people think CATS>Peach was possible, yet CATS flopped - is then after-the-fact used to support it. This boggles my mind.

that was the only argument for Meta-Knight

Not even close. Again, design+obvious Kirby character.

that people actually cared about him (it?) as opposed to Peach

What does this have anything to do with "hardcore fanbase"?

People caring about Meta Knight means he would have legit strength, and would possibly beat her heads up.

Also I think Meta Knight's design would have more to do with it than actual caring anyway.

Note that a Peach vs. Meta Knight match could easily go the other way. But there's no reason to think Peach is some big favorite there, that's totally silly.
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swirIdude | Posted 10/12/2007 3:35:08 PM | message detail
Think Phoenix Wright beats Bomberman one-on-one this contest? What about Ryu and Bowser?

Yes, and Ryu and Bowser were even in the 2006 stats, so anything could happen.
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Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
Draco1214 | Posted 10/12/2007 3:36:17 PM | message detail
So Ryu would be able to turn around a 59-41 drubbing in a span of a year?
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TexasAggie | Posted 10/12/2007 3:38:01 PM | message detail
Draco1214
Posted 10/12/2007 3:36:17 PM
message detail So Ryu would be able to turn around a 59-41 drubbing in a span of a year?


I think he could have beaten Bowser 50.5-49.5 this year.

Snake swung like 14% over Megaman in 2 years.
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Contest pts: 115 (leaderboard position #27)
Today: Cloud>Jill
swirIdude | Posted 10/12/2007 3:38:06 PM | message detail
It's possible, actually. I can't think of any reason for Bowser to overperform on Ryu like that. It depends on whether that happens every time or it's a one time thing. Not to mention year-to-year variance changes character strengths.
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Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
trannyscience | Posted 10/12/2007 3:39:01 PM | message detail
As I said, name three people.

oh, I couldn't name three people for a highly debated match. I don't really worry about who says what unless they just repeat themselves 1000 times a day.

personally, I discounted Meta-Knight because I figured the Kirby series was pretty low on the totem pole (check out that Metroid match) and that Meta-Knight was more of a board 8 thing. board 8 does like them some Meta-Knight, I see talk about him fairly regularly. I always saw Kirby as being someone who took most of his strength from the SSB series, something Meta-Knight doesn't have yet. with Snake, I understood SSB hype -- people know who Snake is -- but with Meta-Knight? I never bought some crazy boost there. same with Pit.

we all got screwed by Meta-Knight, no denying that. I still take Peach heads-up though.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
creativename | Posted 10/12/2007 3:39:48 PM | message detail
I think the format helps Ryu, so I think Bowser edges him out one on one. Though it's possible Ryu is just stronger now. I don' think so however.
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swirIdude | Posted 10/12/2007 3:44:49 PM | message detail
Or Bowser is just weaker this year...which I dont buy.

If Mario/Shadow is an indication, perhaps Shadow leeched some support?
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Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
creativename | Posted 10/12/2007 3:47:21 PM | message detail
Or Bowser is just weaker this year...which I dont buy.

I mean stronger than Bowser, could be by both Ryu increasing and Bowser dropping.

If Mario/Shadow is an indication, perhaps Shadow leeched some support?

If you actually analyze the stats, this is what pops out - Shadow getting SFFed by either Bowser or Ryu. Ryu makes no sense there, but then, Bowser also makes very little sense to me. So I have no idea.
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redrocket | Posted 10/12/2007 3:51:02 PM | message detail
Luigi>Mudkip

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Draco1214 | Posted 10/12/2007 3:52:07 PM | message detail
Alucard/Liquid >>>>> Yuna
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/12/2007 3:52:13 PM | message detail
uhhh uhhh vergil > somebody!

three way sff believe
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