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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 516

ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/11/2007 5:38:13 AM | message detail
If Sephiroth were to beat Link, it'd probably be the best contest result we've ever had.
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SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/11/2007 5:39:06 AM | message detail
Uh, why are people downplaying Link's domination. The only reason Link doesn't look as impressive is because of Bidoof. His real test comes next round with Crono, Vincent and Zero.

The only reason Link didn't look impressive in 2003, was because Cloud and Sephiroth were there. If you want to be the champ, there should be no if's or but's. You should maul anything and everything in front of you.
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Draco1214 | Posted 10/11/2007 5:41:13 AM | message detail
But he is dominating everything. By the end of the match, Link is going to be projected to nearly double Vincent. How is this underperforming again?
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Draco1214 | Posted 10/11/2007 5:42:07 AM | message detail
Oh and this is with Zelda leeching votes from Link.
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Currently Playing: Wild Arms 3, Persona 3
Dilated Chemist | Posted 10/11/2007 5:42:22 AM | message detail
This contest is great success!

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transience | Posted 10/11/2007 5:42:23 AM | message detail
what were people expecting, 60% or something?

my head hurts
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SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/11/2007 5:42:32 AM | message detail
It really isn't. >.> This is just the people that want to see something different hoping against hope. Link is still going to win, unfortunately.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~
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SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/11/2007 5:42:45 AM | message detail
Link should be doubling Crono and Mega Man with ease. Not struggling to do so on Vincent.

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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
Ranked: #16th in the Character Battle 2006. (207 Points)
Dilated Chemist | Posted 10/11/2007 5:44:14 AM | message detail
If Link wins this contest I will leave GameFAQs forever.

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Draco1214 | Posted 10/11/2007 5:46:06 AM | message detail
Link should be doubling Crono and Mega Man with ease. Not struggling to do so on Vincent.

First off, 2006 Link would barely double those characters in one-on-one matches. Secondly, guess who's in the same area as Crono and Mega Man.
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/11/2007 5:48:39 AM | message detail
Link should be doubling Crono and Mega Man with ease. Not struggling to do so on Vincent.

Wow Smurf is right. I agree that Link looked great in his first match, but not this... A character who can get 42% on Cloud, Seph and Snake shouldn't fail to break 50% on these guys, and lets not forget that Zelda is the fourth character in this contest to make Link look stronger in this format (After Tingle, Midna and Ganondorf of course.) Throw in someone as Gordon Freeman instead of Zelda, and I'm not sure if Link would break 42%.
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/11/2007 5:49:50 AM | message detail
Anybody got the hourly updates on this thing?
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transience | Posted 10/11/2007 6:03:58 AM | message detail
Time | Link | Bidoof | Vincent | Zelda
01:00 | 43.23% | 24.51% | 24.37% | 07.89%
02:00 | 44.78% | 21.82% | 25.60% | 07.79%
03:00 | 46.15% | 15.83% | 29.57% | 08.45%
04:00 | 47.14% | 14.29% | 30.29% | 08.28%
05:00 | 46.23% | 11.79% | 33.15% | 08.83%
06:00 | 48.27% | 09.81% | 32.71% | 09.20%
07:00 | 50.34% | 12.75% | 29.12% | 07.78
08:00 | 52.71% | 11.55% | 27.74% | 08.00%
09:00 | 52.92% | 11.23% | 27.21% | 08.63%

wow look at Link struggle he is doomed
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SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi.
"All I can do... is just sit with them."
Lugia2 | Posted 10/11/2007 6:04:11 AM | message detail
Bidoof seems to have a dedicated base of jokers that guarantee him 15%.

Vincent was projected to get 25%

Zelda has around 10%

That's about 50%

And there's no way Sonic will pull something like this- that is, 25%.

Nah, Link is still safe. Samus disappointed against Nidoran F too, you know.
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Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/11/2007 6:36:18 AM | message detail
tag KB
helferty101 | Posted 10/11/2007 6:46:32 AM | message detail
How can people say this is unimpressive when Link is basically doubling Vincent with Zelda, and a Nintendo-based joke character in the poll?

Remember, if you were to take Zelda out, most of her percentage would go to Link, and more of Bidoof's would go to Link than Vincent.
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/11/2007 6:51:08 AM | message detail
epic bidoof collapse is epic

And Link rising to heaven now. Vincent also did very well overnight and saved his percentages. Both should end up looking decent after all of last night's chaos.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Link/Bidoof/Vincent/Zelda - Bracket: Link > Vincent - Vote: Link (147/176)
charmander6000 | Posted 10/11/2007 7:03:02 AM | message detail
Right now Link is beating Vincent 63/37 while last year he was expected to win 67/33. He'll probably rise during the day plus Zelda may be taking a percent away from him.
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Match 39: Link > Vincent Points: 121/176
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/11/2007 7:05:31 AM | message detail
More like Zelda may be taking 8% away from him
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/11/2007 7:10:20 AM | message detail
I predicted Link at 50%, but I also had Vincent at 30%. Looks like they're staying relatively even. Apart from Bidoof having 3-6% more than anyone predicted, this match is going pretty much as expected.
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octoinky | Posted 10/11/2007 7:19:04 AM | message detail
If anything, I expected Vincent to do much better, as the only FF (non Nintendo, even) character in the poll, I said to Ngamer that 'id be shocked if a strong FF7 character failed to put 30% on nintendo, even if it is zelda and joke pokemon.'


I think in the end, the only factor in this match is Bidoof. However the day vote looks to DEMOLISH that, and Link is doing incredibly well now. But anyway, Bidoof got 16% when the supporting cast was Edgeworth and Agent J. To be even close to that when it is Vincent instead (i'll just say Zelda is lumped into Link here) is amazing, I couldn't justify Bidoof over 12% before this match began.
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/11/2007 7:20:26 AM | message detail
We wont really have an accurate reading on Link until next round thanks to Bidoof.

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transience | Posted 10/11/2007 7:27:19 AM | message detail
remember when Samus bombed because she only got 82% on Nidoran F?

yeah

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SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi.
"All I can do... is just sit with them."
ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/11/2007 7:37:04 AM | message detail
GO SEPHIROTH AND CLOUD
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Mumei | Posted 10/11/2007 7:37:49 AM | message detail
transience, could I have an update for the last two hours?

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/11/2007 8:01:54 AM | message detail
Time .| Link ......| Bidoof ..| Vincent .| Zelda
01:00 | 43.33% | 24.48% | 24.36% | 07.84%
02:00 | 44.80% | 21.47% | 25.74% | 07.99%
03:00 | 46.54% | 15.29% | 29.71% | 08.46%
04:00 | 46.88% | 13.90% | 30.80% | 08.41%
05:00 | 46.78% | 11.58% | 33.11% | 08.53%
06:00 | 48.45% | 10.14% | 32.34% | 09.07%
07:00 | 50.69% | 12.76% | 28.84% | 07.71%
08:00 | 52.35% | 11.56% | 27.95% | 08.13%
09:00 | 52.92% | 11.23% | 27.21% | 08.63%
10:00 | 51.30% | 11.36% | 29.07% | 08.26%
11:00 | 52.24% | 09.90% | 29.73% | 08.13%

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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Mumei | Posted 10/11/2007 8:03:47 AM | message detail
Thanks! ^_^

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"I believe that words uttered in passion contain a greater living truth than do those words which express thoughts rationally conceived" - Sensei
HotPoontang | Posted 10/11/2007 8:03:53 AM | message detail
I'm still holding out for 50 and 30%.

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/11/2007 8:08:01 AM | message detail
50% may be pretty realistic if Link improves with the ASV. I'm not really feeling the 30% though
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
HotPoontang | Posted 10/11/2007 8:09:31 AM | message detail
2% shouldn't be too hard to get when Bidoof is nearly dropping 1% an hour. Granted it's probably going to slow down, but there's still plenty of time left. I'd actually really like to see 51% out of Link, but I'll take 50.

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transience | Posted 10/11/2007 8:11:07 AM | message detail
50/29/13/8 seems realistic to me
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SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi.
"All I can do... is just sit with them."
HotPoontang | Posted 10/11/2007 8:11:42 AM | message detail
you seem realistic to me
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/11/2007 8:14:07 AM | message detail
Vincent isn't even getting 30% an hour now. If Link takes more of the ASV than Vincent, which is fairly likely I'd say, there's no chance of him even hitting 30% updates unless he does it in the next 3-4 hours. Needless to say, that doesn't work. Vincent needs to consistently take in ~32%+ if he wants to go up that high.
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Crimson Dragoon | Posted 10/11/2007 8:23:58 AM | message detail
Bidoof's worst hour is better than Zelda's best. Heh.
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Ed Bellis | Posted 10/11/2007 8:25:44 AM | message detail
So did Bidoof actually get any votes deducted or did it just collapse naturally?

Well, as naturally as you could get.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/11/2007 8:26:07 AM | message detail
What the hell? Link is going up with the during school vote?
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/11/2007 8:27:32 AM | message detail
Yeah... at this rate Link doesn't even need to improve with the ASV to reach 50%. He just needs to not do worse
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Buzzup | Posted 10/11/2007 8:29:38 AM | message detail
It's Link, he goes up with everything.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/11/2007 8:31:36 AM | message detail
Link is starting to look really good now. If he can hit 50% while keeping Vincent from 30%, I'd call it a fine performance.
red sox 777 | Posted 10/11/2007 9:02:01 AM | message detail
Link is doing fine here. He has 63.28% of the votes between himself and Vincent right now, before the ASV, with Zelda taking away votes from him. Sephiroth has a great chance to beat him in round 4 due to LFF with Mario, but Link will most likely still beat Cloud in the finals.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 119/176 -- T-1244 (234 way)
Bracket: Link > Vincent -- Vote: Link
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/11/2007 9:04:13 AM | message detail
Seeing as how Link will be taking a Sqaure character with him, I doubt Sephiroth has a shot.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/11/2007 9:06:03 AM | message detail
It looks like the Bidoof haters get the last laugh.

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Haste_2 | Posted 10/11/2007 9:06:19 AM | message detail
Ah... and, so much for Mudkip > Luigi.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/11/2007 9:09:10 AM | message detail
Well, if it's Vincent, then Link wins easily. I don't think Crono would hurt Sephiroth more than Link though- he's a SNES character and looking at CT's matches in the Games Contest, CT had totally opposite trends to FFVII, and that match got higher votals than FFVII/OOT. If anything, I'd expect Crono to hurt Link a little more than Sephiroth. Crono also has very similar character design to Link, for what it's worth.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 119/176 -- T-1244 (234 way)
Bracket: Link > Vincent -- Vote: Link
ZhangJunyi | Posted 10/11/2007 9:11:33 AM | message detail
Who the **** is ruining this match by vote stuffing Vincent!?

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swirIdude | Posted 10/11/2007 9:12:02 AM | message detail
Emos.
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/11/2007 9:14:31 AM | message detail
I hate how FF7 characters always start their night vote way early. So unfair.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
creativename | Posted 10/11/2007 9:27:06 AM | message detail
Haste2
Anyway, I need to bring another thing up as to explain Bidoof's success: there might be lots of voters that are catching on to this fad of voting for joke (Pokemon) characters this time around. Bidoof was the first joke character (CATS aside) to appear in the contest.

No, this wasn't momentum or path dependency. Just stuffing. That was pretty clear last night, and not much in doubt now. Of course you know this by now too :)


smitelf:
What is this "everyone"? There were several people, me included, who anticipated Cloud's performance. Not bragging (because considering today's crappy prediction...), just pointing out that if you take Kefka into account, it's not so surprising at all that Cloud did well.

What do you mean, considering Kefka? Do you believe Kefka's presence helped Cloud? Because it looked like Kefka didn't even get SFFed there.

Sephiroth, on the other hand...wtf. Fox collapsed like a house of cards in a hurricane.

Yeah, I thought Fox would do better.


Haste2
Kefka avoided all SFF... either that, or the SFF canceled out with Kefka's hardcore fans. Kefka probably hurt Cloud slightly, if anything.

I agree. Though I doubt Kefka hurt Cloud at all.

Nah. Fox just has SFFing power. He collapsed equally as hard as Wario, so it all made sense in the end.

I suppose he SFFed Falcon into oblivion. I think Falcon>Wario 1 on 1.


smitelf
I think you're underestimating what Kefka would have gotten without SFF with Cloud. He'd have been much closer to Ocelot. There was definitely some SFF going on - not anywhere near on the level of this match, but enough to push Cloud up almost 2%, I think. The rest was all Cloud; he was guaranteed 53%ish without SFF anyway.<I think you're underestimating what Kefka would have gotten without SFF with Cloud. He'd have been much closer to Ocelot. There was definitely some SFF going on - not anywhere near on the level of this match, but enough to push Cloud up almost 2%, I think. The rest was all Cloud; he was guaranteed 53%ish without SFF anyway.

Well I guess 2 points might be somewhat reasonable, even though that places quite a bit Kefka closer to Fenix than he was in round 1. But 1 point is more reasonable, and that's barely worth mentioning and could easily not be SFF.

Cloud just lapped everybody that match. Don't think Kefka's presence had anything to do with it.


Kleenex
This begs the question: What would Tingle get in her position?

Good god :) Lower than Adventure probably. If Luigi can SFF him to oblivion...
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creativename | Posted 10/11/2007 9:31:02 AM | message detail
Smurf
And aside from Yoshi, Nintendo has sucked it up throughout the contest as a whole. Which is bizarre since Nintendo have had the best year since these contests were born.And aside from Yoshi, Nintendo has sucked it up throughout the contest as a whole. Which is bizarre since Nintendo have had the best year since these contests were born.

I disagree about Nintendo sucking, but yeah, given how big the Wii is at this site you'd think Nintendo would be at its strongest ever. But that doesn't look to be the case. It is surprising to me, I thought Nintendo would be impressive in almost every match this year.


Zylo
I'm starting to think that Sephiroth has a great chance to upset Link in one round if Crono wins over Vincent. Link has Mario that will take away about 10% away from him, and Crono is more likely to hurt Link than Seph. Not that it matters, since Link will still advance in that round and win the contest...

Huh...I never thought of that. I doubt Crono hurts Link more than Sephiroth to any noteworthy degree, he probably has similar overlaps to both, but Mario... Still, I just can't picture Sephiroth>Link happening. If it was Cloud there maybe.

Sephiroth>Link would be the great upset, and the greatest match, these contests have seen though :)


SmurfFAQs (is this the same as _Smurf_?)
Look at any previous contest. The final winner has NEVER given reason for anybody to doubt them. They've been stunning at every hurdle.

And Link has just showcased questionable performances not once, but twice.


Good point. Link still has to be the heavy favorite, but the small gap for doubt increases slightly each round.

Though this round isn't really a questionable performance. If you take out the cheat votes Link would be fine.

This result just looks bad when compared to how Link did in the Battle Royale against Cloud/Sephiroth/Snake, but that was because of Cloud/Sephiroth LFF.


ExThaNemesis
If Sephiroth were to beat Link, it'd probably be the best contest result we've ever had.

Heh I said the same thing :)

It really isn't. >.> This is just the people that want to see something different hoping against hope. Link is still going to win, unfortunately.

Yes probably. But at least with me, my understanding that Cloud>Link is possible has nothing to do with hope. It's just that these contests are never that clear-cut, and this format makes things less predictable.


Lugi
Bidoof seems to have a dedicated base of jokers that guarantee him 15%.

It's much more proxy cheaters than jokers.


helferty
How can people say this is unimpressive when Link is basically doubling Vincent with Zelda, and a Nintendo-based joke character in the poll? ...and more of Bidoof's would go to Link than Vincent.

Bidoof's votes are not hurting Link more than anyone else. They are almost certainly stuffed votes, not Nintendo joke vote leeching.


Blode of Evils Bane
We wont really have an accurate reading on Link until next round thanks to Bidoof.

Delete 2K-4K votes for Bidoof, and there's your percentages for accurate reading, I would say.


transcience
remember when Samus bombed because she only got 82% on Nidoran F?

I don't recall anyone blaming Samus for that. They just gave credit to Nidoran and were pretty carefree for Samus.


red sox 777
ephiroth has a great chance to beat him in round 4 due to LFF with Mario

I'd say "pretty slim" rather than "great".
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creativename | Posted 10/11/2007 9:38:46 AM | message detail
It looks like the Bidoof haters get the last laugh.

As if this was ever in doubt :)

Watching Bidoof struggle with uber-SFFed Zelda after an epic-squared collapse is more fun than last night I'd say :D

And I don't even dislike Bidoof.

Ah... and, so much for Mudkip > Luigi.

Thank goodness.
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