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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 516

creativename | Posted 10/10/2007 10:10:35 PM | message detail
I'm a bit glad that Bidoof didn't give up the lead until after the hour mark. Him having the hour is kinda neat.

Please tell me I'm misreading this.
...
Phoenix isn't a joke character though - he's a fad, but not a joke. People love him. You can joke vote Bidoof without caring about him at all, same for L-Block. They're *actual* jokes

I dunno, I think the main difference between Phoenix and Bidoof is simply fourchan.

I don't think L-Block is a joke character. I think people vote for him because "Hey wow, is that - is that a Tetris piece? Awesome!"

L-Block was a joke nomination, I don't think he's a joke character.

CATS is this to an extent as well - look how well Sephiroth performed without him! The triple Nintendo SFF only counts for so much, Sephy had the advantage of double Ninty SFF in the first round with a much weaker entity.

I wouldn't think CATS had much to do with that. Nintendo LFF is more likely.
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Keno316 | Posted 10/10/2007 10:10:54 PM | message detail
WOOHOOO! DIE DOOF! DIE!!!!!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Mumei | Posted 10/10/2007 10:11:08 PM | message detail
Link just ravaged everyone.

He come to town...



Link - 47.96%
Bidoof - 21.44%
Vincent - 23.65%
Zelda - 6.96%

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"I believe that words uttered in passion contain a greater living truth than do those words which express thoughts rationally conceived" - Sensei
trannyscience | Posted 10/10/2007 10:11:41 PM | message detail
as for Link "sucking" -- he's currently beating Vincent 64.2/35.8 with Zelda potentially hurting him slightly. that's not exactly "bad", it just looks bad by the numbers we're seeing because Bidoof is sucking up so many votes.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
Keno316 | Posted 10/10/2007 10:11:53 PM | message detail
Poor Poor Poor Zelda!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Who Cares? | Posted 10/10/2007 10:11:54 PM | message detail
I'd give it to Ryu. Big Boss' upset was definately up there, but Ryu's win destoryed brackets.
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Current Points: 127
Maximum Possible Points: 727/768
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/10/2007 10:12:18 PM | message detail
I wanna know what people think the Big Boss match percentages would have been if he'd got a standard old man picture. He beat Magus by 7%...

srsly

Plus, maybe it's just fanboyism, but why is that picture such a travesty? It is Big Boss. That's what he looks like. It's the nature of the beast, folks! We must take it into account the next time we be predictin', and that's so sweet!
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
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trannyscience | Posted 10/10/2007 10:12:59 PM | message detail
let's see how he does next round. he probably goes back to a crap picture, which is a shame. I want to see the full power of this Snake look.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
Gaddswell | Posted 10/10/2007 10:13:08 PM | message detail
About time!

Pika > Mudkip >>>>> Derp
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/10/2007 10:13:14 PM | message detail
as for Link "sucking" -- he's currently beating Vincent 64.2/35.8 with Zelda potentially hurting him slightly. that's not exactly "bad", it just looks bad by the numbers we're seeing because Bidoof is sucking up so many votes.

Obviously we don't know how this will go with the day, but Link 2k6 *is* supposed to be stronger than that, especially with (lol) TP and PH helping him out.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/10/2007 10:13:14 PM | message detail
Just for the record, Link is expected to put up ~67% on Vincent in both 2005 and 2006.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
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swirIdude | Posted 10/10/2007 10:13:17 PM | message detail
The only issue with Ryu's win is that it's not like it came out of left field, it was a perfectly viable result.
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Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2007 10:13:25 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure BB did more damage than Ryu.

All Ryu did was ensure Moltar is even further ahead of the pack.

damn it ryu

TuRtLe
~~~
133/176 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Vincenzo
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/10/2007 10:13:41 PM | message detail
I can already see Mudkip > Ganondorf/Luigi for the first hour (or more). 4chan was down last Mudkip round, so Mudkip can't even lead for a minute against Luigi. If 4chan isn't down and Ganondorf and Luigi SFFing each other quite evenly, then Mudkip will have a great start IMO... and have a pretty good chance to advance to round 3...

*runs*
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
swirIdude | Posted 10/10/2007 10:14:20 PM | message detail
God Mudkip why do you want to mess with my perfectly calculated MC > Ganon plan?
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Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
trannyscience | Posted 10/10/2007 10:14:22 PM | message detail
65, 67, that's not exactly a failure. again, Zelda's in the poll.

sure, it's just.. 8%, but it's something.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
Keno316 | Posted 10/10/2007 10:15:17 PM | message detail
So...Pikaturd is gonna end up going the furthest of the Pokemon...when Mewtwo was forced to be slayed in round 1?


Such injustice.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
GyratingGrandma | Posted 10/10/2007 10:15:26 PM | message detail
...I hate how many characters we have to predict with pictures in mind now. Big Boss, Solid Snake, Samus... anyone else? If they're going to give him that picture, call him ****ing Naked Snake and let's get done with it. Then we can have straight up Naked pics, and go from there.

If it weren't for this contest format being so sweet, I'd probably be pissed with the way things are being run. No word on insanely close matches, and now apparently no problem with screwing with us. I want my Ceej back.

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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/10/2007 10:15:31 PM | message detail
Vincent really isn't doing that badly.

Let's take Zelda out of the match and give 75% of her votes to Link. The rest get split between Vincent and Bidoof. Now, ignoring Bidoof, Vincent would have about 33.88% on Link. Post-Twilight Princess Link. How high do you all think Vincent (or Crono) is?

I suppose you could make a case for Bidoof hurting Link more than Vincent, but I don't really see that being much of a factor.

This is just a great start for Bidoof, says very little about how Vincent will end up.
King Morgoth | Posted 10/10/2007 10:16:02 PM | message detail
creativename | Posted 10/10/2007 10:02:02 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure the average Oracle for Vincent was under 30%. Though I could be wrong.


Partial says 27.89%
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paraboxx | Posted 10/10/2007 10:16:17 PM | message detail
nah, Big Boss had serious help. for star, you have to do it by yourself.

If you're going to praise Bidoof for getting helped by votestuffing - which seems more and more likely with each passing update - then you can't slam Big Boss for getting helped by a pic.
Keno316 | Posted 10/10/2007 10:16:36 PM | message detail
65, 67, that's not exactly a failure. again, Zelda's in the poll.

sure, it's just.. 8%, but it's something.



The way Zelda looks like she'd lose to Agent J soon...I have a hard time she's really pulling away much of Link's support.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
consolefreak | Posted 10/10/2007 10:16:39 PM | message detail
Though pretty disgusting, this cracked me up. Vincent's doing fine though. He'll end up with a lot more than this, and he's expected ~33% on Link, so.
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124/168. Today : Link > Vincent. Tomorrow : Crono > Zero.
*One_Winged_Ange*
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/10/2007 10:16:59 PM | message detail
By the way, does anyone think PH coming out this week actually did anything for Link?
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2007 10:17:08 PM | message detail
Uhh, Ceej was the one responsible for ZSS and all of the Solid Snake pics that almost resulted in him losing.

TuRtLe
~~~
133/176 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Vincenzo
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
creativename | Posted 10/10/2007 10:17:21 PM | message detail
What is this "Big Boss had help" talk? Way I figure, he's been handicapped this whole time - not just by old man pics, but moreso by his name, which he still hasn't received.

Also he probably would've beaten Magus by a bit with an old man pic, though it's tough to say for sure.

Big Boss is a better star choice than Bidoof. As is Auron, who performed so well that he'll probably get 2nd next round even with Cloud SFFing him.

And if we must have empirical evidence, there's nothing better than just waiting for Mudkip and especially L-Block. If they hold up disproportionately well/don't drop off at all

But these guys are stronger than the typical joke character. And it's almost certain they'll drop off from their percentages last round, they have Kratos and Ganon coming in.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2007 10:17:47 PM | message detail
I find it hard to believe that anything could increase Link's strength. He's that damn saturated.

TuRtLe
~~~
133/176 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Vincenzo
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
trannyscience | Posted 10/10/2007 10:18:17 PM | message detail
If you're going to praise Bidoof for getting helped by votestuffing - which seems more and more likely with each passing update - then you can't slam Big Boss for getting helped by a pic.

hmm.. fair enough, but I also wouldn't give Bidoof any serious consideration. it's just that we haven't had much unexpected happen besides this. even Big Boss was expected once the picture was unveiled, though it was more than we expected.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
Keno316 | Posted 10/10/2007 10:19:06 PM | message detail
I find it hard to believe that anything could increase Link's strength. He's that damn saturated.


I have to agree with BT here (what did I just say?)


I think Link is so freaking strong already that any other "boost" he could have is just gonna be so insignificant compare to where his power is at.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/10/2007 10:19:19 PM | message detail
And it's almost certain they'll drop off from their percentages last round, they have Kratos and Ganon coming in.

Bidoof had VINCENT, and he's gonna finish higher. I don't think you get my point.
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
GyratingGrandma | Posted 10/10/2007 10:20:09 PM | message detail
Uhh, Ceej was the one responsible for ZSS and all of the Solid Snake pics that almost resulted in him losing.

Solid **** was one thing, ZSS was completely new, he couldn't have known the effects of it, and I really doubt we would have seen one the entirety of the contest, hell I remember some people saying it was going to help Samus. A Naked Snake pic is kind of ****ing obvious what effect it will have on the result.

Anyway, thinking about it more, Auron definitely is star of the round to me so far... I've had Cloud > Ryu for a while, and always felt that if he could beat Bowser in this round, he had it made, and now I'm scared that Auron is somehow going to survive Cloud and ruin it, that's how much domination he laid down.

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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/10/2007 10:20:58 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be at all surprised if L-Block leads the whole damn poll for a while. Kratos ain't weak, but he's a casual-friendly character. He's not exactly someone that people fawn over. Vincent, despite his bad board vote, is, and look what happened to him for the first hour.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
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trannyscience | Posted 10/10/2007 10:21:09 PM | message detail
Vincent's gone down .06% since 1am. Link? +.57%.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
Keno316 | Posted 10/10/2007 10:22:15 PM | message detail
Vincent's gone down .06% since 1am. Link? +.57%.


Can't be helped. Link looked so pityful at the beginning that he has to stabilize now at where he should be.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/10/2007 10:22:25 PM | message detail
Yeeeeeeah I still like like to finish 50%+ here easily enough if the last matches trends hold
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2007 10:22:31 PM | message detail
Actually, if I had to guess I'd say L-block and Mudkip get higher percentages due to the Ninty SFF in their matches.

That's a very scary thought.

TuRtLe
~~~
133/176 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Vincenzo
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/10/2007 10:22:44 PM | message detail
Actually Ganon coming in could very well make Mudkip look better. Its obvious by this point that Pokemon characters cannot be SFF'd at all. Ganon and Luigi are gonna be splitting votes while Mudkip kips the Pokemon fanbase/4chan/joke votes.
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creativename | Posted 10/10/2007 10:22:52 PM | message detail
Partial says 27.89%

Thanks. He might still hit that. Though it's iffy.


By the way, does anyone think PH coming out this week actually did anything for Link?

I forgot about that. I guess not.

Actually it's a Wind Waker sequel right? Maybe it hurts him :) That's why Bidoof is doing so well! Wind Waker sequel backlash!
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trannyscience | Posted 10/10/2007 10:23:09 PM | message detail
I dunno about 50, but 48 or 49 looks quite possible, and in my eyes that's good.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/10/2007 10:23:09 PM | message detail
damn like likes

Link is so screwed
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
swirIdude | Posted 10/10/2007 10:23:29 PM | message detail
The D-Pad fanboys support Bidoof.
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Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
GyratingGrandma | Posted 10/10/2007 10:23:55 PM | message detail

Actually it's a Wind Waker sequel right? Maybe it hurts him :) That's why Bidoof is doing so well! Wind Waker sequel backlash!


SPF strikes again.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/10/2007 10:24:17 PM | message detail
Dude, if a Like Like can hit 50% in this match, imagine Epona.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/10/2007 10:24:34 PM | message detail
Excuse me.

Link is so screwed.

I'm a bit out of practice.
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
creativename | Posted 10/10/2007 10:25:32 PM | message detail
Bidoof had VINCENT, and he's gonna finish higher. I don't think you get my point.

You're saying joke character percentages should be more static right? I'm saying Bidoof is a joke character, whereas L-Block isn't really, and Mudkip while jokish is less so than Bidoof I think. Also, I think Bidoof's "staticness" might be more related to stuffing than actual people joke votes.

Also I'm not convinced he finishes higher than last round.
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Ed Bellis | Posted 10/10/2007 10:25:39 PM | message detail
If next round's the sprite round, we might just get another Naked Snake pic. Aren't there sprites in Portable Ops?
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/10/2007 10:26:07 PM | message detail
Bidoof stalls. It amazes me that he's doing so much better in this match.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
trannyscience | Posted 10/10/2007 10:26:44 PM | message detail
look at L-Block's trends -- they're the same as Bidoof's. I know you like ol' L and all, but it's definitely a "joke vote". it's no more "legitimate" than voting a random ugly pokemon.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/10/2007 10:27:16 PM | message detail
Link probably won't hit 50%. He definitley failed to match Cloud.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/10/2007 10:27:29 PM | message detail
Portable Ops has MGS2/MGS3 caliber graphics. Unless I'm forgetting something crucial, there's no way he gets a legitimate sprite from that.

Big Boss' actual sprite is from the same games Snake gets his - only he wears a funny red hat!
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
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