GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 516
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| creativename | Posted 10/11/2007 12:26:29 PM | message detail |
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Heroic Mario I don't know what I read just now, but anyone calling for Link's head based on what he's doing now is grasping. Well hochi is the only guy doing that right? And he's been like that since the beginning I think. There will always be that one that blows your mind and lets you know what might be going down later on -- what's up Sonic in 03! The definitive "This..changes..everything...!" performance. YoAriel I think it's certainly possible, but unlike most other people, I still think there's that polar opposite possibility of Chief falling on his ass. The biggest "legends" the guy has ever faced are Crono, Sub-Zero, and Donkey Kong. That's a very far cry from Snake and Sonic in the same poll, I know what you're saying. This especially holds if red sox 777's theory explaining casual dominance holds true - MC would then not do well against other casual favorites. (ironically, pretty much the opposite of what lots of people have been saying about him for years) Right now like everyone else, I have a lot more confidence in Sonic than before, even though we haven't seen him perform yet. MC getting there isn't out of the question, but he has tons of competition. Also earlier I questioned whether Yuna would be the type of character to do well here. I don't think this format would really hurt her, but I don't see it helping her either. Crushing her may not be as impressive as it seemed - though it still pretty much confirmed that MC is almost certainly stronger in this format, and also outright stronger, than we've ever seen him. Lady Ashe And unlike Snake, everybody already knows Sonic. Actually this is a good point, back in 2K2 I had no idea who Solid Snake was, had never heard of him :) Now I'm sure that at this website, he's almost universally known, but still, his recognizability wasn't on Mario/Sonic level. RPGuy But if that gets whittled down to something like Halo 3 vs Galaxy vs God of War II vs Guitar Hero III for the second poll, I'd go with Galaxy. I'd be pretty surprised to see Galaxy beat out Halo 3, even at this site. I don't think Galaxy is actually all that super-anticipated, and don't know what the ownership saturation and playrate for that game will be. And it won't get the "critic respect" type factor that games like Halo, GTA, and Gears of War get. transcience oh yeah, no more Brawl. though I goddamn guarantee that if you put it in a poll it would STILL win despite not being out. This is probably true. Black Turtle Proxies wouldn't work on the poll, because IIRC, the site uses MAC addresses to prevent cheating. No. It is not possible to find the MAC address of the original computer in PHP, as it is not passed through headers. The only way would be to try to find it by IP address - which will obviously only give the MAC address of the proxy anyway. Also are you seriously trying to say that Bidoof's early performance was legit? The guy's natural strength is clearly in the 10%-12% range. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 10/11/2007 12:31:50 PM | message detail |
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Well, my thinking is that we've only ever seen Galaxy in a poll with
Brawl/Corruption (and perhaps Twilight Princess if you go further
back). Brawl kills it, badly, and Corruption definitely hurts it, so
it's hard to say what Galaxy would do alone. It obviously also depends if it's more like Sunshine or more like 64, but it has good chance, especially if it has no Nintendo competition. --- Mustache...and green... www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/11/2007 12:34:05 PM | message detail |
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Damn Link. ****ing go buddy. --- SC2k7: 88/128, tied for 1364th Today's Pick: Mega Man > Knux (whoops) |
| DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/11/2007 12:36:25 PM | message detail |
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And as I predicted, Link's getting past 50% and Vincent should end up
around 28% unless he starts to REALLY drop off with the ASV. --- SC2k7: 88/128, tied for 1364th Today's Pick: Mega Man > Knux (whoops) |
| creativename | Posted 10/11/2007 12:36:28 PM | message detail |
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The fact remains that, even as Nintendo/Wii-centric as this site is, I
think a lot more people at this site will have played Halo 3 than Mario
Galaxy. I think that would remain the case even years from now, let
alone when Galaxy is only a couple months old and Halo's been out for
longer. Galaxy would have to rely heavily on franchise voting I think, and I don't see it benefiting as much from that as other games. Maybe Galaxy will be the reverse Twilight Princess though - under the radar pre-release, and beloved after? But that would only mean it has a chance against Halo 3 in the long-term I think, not in the next few months. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/11/2007 12:41:18 PM | message detail |
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Vincent is still doing quite well here. He's at 36.4% in relation to Link. Let's give Link 80% of Zelda's votes now, the rest get split proportionally between Vincent and Bidoof. Vincent then has 34.44% straight up against Link, if you just ignore Bidoof. Being even more generous, you could then give 70% of Bidoof's votes over to Link, the rest to Vincent. That'll leave Vincent with 33.77%, which seems to be a fine performance. You'd have to go with some funny math to make this look good for Link. It seems more to be about as expected. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2007 12:42:27 PM | message detail |
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I'm not saying it's legit in the way you're thinking. There was
obviously a lot of rallying by both users and outside sites, but it
seems to me the people who vote near the beginning of the poll are
people more likely to "get" the joke characters. People that follow the
contest loosely but don't visit Board 8, and I'm willilng to bet
there's a pretty sizable chunk of them that would vote a joke character
over a character of preference they know is going to advance anyways,
which is why Bidoof took so much of his support from Link. TuRtLe ~~~ 133/176 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Vincenzo BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2007 12:50:35 PM | message detail |
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Franchise voting is a big factor here - I can't see Galaxy dropping
that poll even if it's worse than Sunshine and then some. Remember how
FFXII performed in that GotY poll? TP's not a top ten game on this site
either. </assertion> And people acting like Zelda is draining Link here despite her being reduced to Speck of Dust level continues to ring false to me - if anything, this would seem to be one of the pieces of evidence that would suggest the opposite (and if Link/Ganondorf is any indication, it SHOULD). The only thing that was hurting Link here was Bidoof... and that was only early on. If now is any indication... yeah, Link's not gonna lose. stop hyping it --- Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2007 12:50:56 PM | message detail |
| On top of that there are probably regulars who
don't care about the poll (as evidenced by the many "who cares its
always cloud or link wins it all" topics) that wouldn't normally vote
for "serious" characters but would throw joke entrants like Bidoof or
L-block a bone. TuRtLe ~~~ 133/176 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Vincenzo BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2007 12:55:10 PM | message detail |
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Oh, and as for the overall winner of the contest never giving any doubt - lol what's up Samus 2k6 --- Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package. |
| creativename | Posted 10/11/2007 12:55:46 PM | message detail |
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Vincent is still doing quite well here. He's at 36.4% in relation to Link. Well you shouldn't just linearly compare though, you should use Morgoth's x-stats. (which would probably make Vincent look slightly better actually, as his formula is non-linear and has stronger characters getting more than their linear share) Though the difference won't be that great I think, so maybe there's not much reason to bother. I'm not saying it's legit in the way you're thinking. There was obviously a lot of rallying by both users and outside sites, but it seems to me the people who vote near the beginning of the poll are people more likely to "get" the joke characters. Well obviously the board vote would favor Bidoof more than his normal strength, duh :) But Bidoof's performance last night, and also in his first match, was almost certainly due to proxies more than anything else. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2007 12:58:13 PM | message detail |
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I still don't buy it. Nidoran F scoring 20% on Samus last year makes it
seem that obvious joke characters (Pokemon especially for some reason)
are guarenteed a certain percentage regardless of who's in the poll. Through Mudkip in with Link Cloud and.... Mega Man to avoid SFF. He's guarenteed at least 10% which would be a tough feat for even solid midcarders to match. TuRtLe ~~~ 133/176 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Vincenzo BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/11/2007 1:05:26 PM | message detail |
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Link's doing pretty good. Remember that Sephiroth looked terrible in the first round when CATS was in the poll. --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar http://server3.uploadit.org/files/ff6man-PhoenixVote.jpg |
| swirIdude | Posted 10/11/2007 1:06:03 PM | message detail |
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Have you considered that the Pokemon do well because in addition to joke votes, they're Pokemon? --- Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe |
| Warsola | Posted 10/11/2007 1:07:40 PM | message detail |
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Big Boss's performance proved to me that Snake's Brawl fans actually
have no idea who he is. I can't see too many of those staying on
Snake's side when facing a fellow Brawler in Sonic. --- And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes! |
| swirIdude | Posted 10/11/2007 1:09:03 PM | message detail |
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Except that they already knew who Sonic was, since he's been in
Nintendo's camp for years. If they're not big fans, the OMG BADASS GUY
IN BRAWL could get their vote. --- Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2007 1:09:21 PM | message detail |
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Big Boss's performance proved to me that Snake's Brawl fans actually
have no idea who he is. I can't see too many of those staying on
Snake's side when facing a fellow Brawler in Sonic. That's literally the stupidest reasoning you could have possibly come up with. Move over, SPF --- Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package. |
| HotPoontang | Posted 10/11/2007 1:10:22 PM | message detail |
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SPF will kick your ass. --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids. |
| Warsola | Posted 10/11/2007 1:11:49 PM | message detail |
| You know what's even stupider? Snake going from
47~% on Mega Man to 55% on him because of trailers. Yet look what
happened. Voters in general are stupid. I'm trying to understand them.
<_< --- And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes! |
| creativename | Posted 10/11/2007 1:11:52 PM | message detail |
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Vincent is still doing quite well here. He's at 36.4% in relation to Link. Actually I just did some crunching and the strengths that match the current results (49.56%, 28.12%, 14.33%, 7.99%) are 50.00%, 34.98%, 20.02%, and 11.75%. Whereas the direct relation to Link would be 28.12/(28.12+49.56)=36.2%. So Morgoth's formula actually makes Vincent look about a point worse than linear comparison. Minor difference though. yeah, Link's not gonna lose. We would've been a lot more confidence saying this in 2K3 than now :) Really, one can't make definitive statements like this, it's a bad idea. Link is the heavy favorite still, almost nobody is questioning that. Oh, and as for the overall winner of the contest never giving any doubt - lol what's up Samus 2k6 I don't know if that really counts with the Battle Royale and all. But yeah, that's something. I still don't buy it. Nidoran F scoring 20% on Samus last year makes it seem that obvious joke characters (Pokemon especially for some reason) are guarenteed a certain percentage regardless of who's in the poll. Utter nonsense. Also Nidoran was probably Pokemon franchise voting anyway, not joke strength. And again - are you actually saying you don't think stuffing the top factor in Bidoof's performance last night? It was fairly clear to me at the time, and in retrospect pretty highly evident. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 10/11/2007 1:13:24 PM | message detail |
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Have you considered that the Pokemon do well because in addition to joke votes, they're Pokemon? Indeed. The joke strength is really only a factor for the first hour, and usually for much less than that. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| swirIdude | Posted 10/11/2007 1:15:40 PM | message detail |
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You know what's even stupider? Snake going from 47~% on Mega Man to 55% on him because of trailers. Yet look what happened. Which can be explained by two factors: The Brawl Trailers AND Year-to-Year Variance! --- Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2007 1:15:54 PM | message detail |
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The thought had crossed my mind, but that would be like a Goomba breaking 20% on Samus. Nobody is that rabid..... right? TuRtLe ~~~ 133/176 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Vincenzo BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| creativename | Posted 10/11/2007 1:16:23 PM | message detail |
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You know what's even stupider? Snake going from 47~% on Mega Man to
55% on him because of trailers. Yet look what happened. Voters in
general are stupid. I'm trying to understand them. <_< It's true that I never would've guess Snake would boost that much because of Brawl hype. I guess we've all come to accept it, but if you look at it, it is pretty strange. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2007 1:18:24 PM | message detail |
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You know what's even stupider? Snake going from 47~% on Mega Man to
55% on him because of trailers. Yet look what happened. Voters in
general are stupid. I'm trying to understand them. People entertained Brawl hype - it's the reason why I took Snake over Mega Man - but the extent of it was merely surprising. You're saying something that has been patently disproven. Check 2k5: Samus (2005c) VS Snake (2005c) Samus has a strength of 41.69. Snake has a strength of 36.97. Samus wins with 55.66% of the vote! A win of 11,363 with 100,369 total votes cast. And that's assuming Samus 2k5 isn't underrated or didn't boost in 2k6, which many dispute (argh). Yet the actual result was http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2561 Snake performed significantly better than 2k5 indicated. If Samus sapped the 'Brawl Boost', she didn't sap all of it. Snake gained significant new voters that preferred him over existing Brawl characters. The Battle Royale indicated the same thing. --- Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package. |
| swirIdude | Posted 10/11/2007 1:18:41 PM | message detail |
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The thought had crossed my mind, but that would be like a Goomba breaking 20% on Samus. Nobody is that rabid..... right? Mario SFFs Samus! Samus is so screwed! --- Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2007 1:18:53 PM | message detail |
| Except Mega Man looked equal to Sonic, who looked
static judging by his matches with Vincent and Luigi. Unless you think
Mega Man, Sonic, Ryu, Sora, Vincent, Ganondorf and Luigi all boosted
through the roof. TuRtLe ~~~ 133/176 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Vincenzo BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2007 1:20:25 PM | message detail |
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How the hell can you not see Mario/Samus as being an SFF fest? Just
look at unadjusted Ganondorf. Unless you think Vincent dropped in 2k6
along with half the male bracket. TuRtLe ~~~ 133/176 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Vincenzo BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Warsola | Posted 10/11/2007 1:20:59 PM | message detail |
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Oh, I'm not saying that Snake will look weak or anything. I'm saying
that Snake will look closer to his 2k5 form than the "Holy crap I
slaughtered the male bracket" form. But first Sonic needs to prove that
Sub-Zero isn't anything close to being a threat to him ;>_> --- And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes! |
| creativename | Posted 10/11/2007 1:21:35 PM | message detail |
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The thought had crossed my mind, but that would be like a Goomba breaking 20% on Samus. Nobody is that rabid..... right? Why would a Goomba breaking 20% on Samus be weirder than Nidoran F? I'd pick Goomba over Nidoran F without even thinking. Hell, I'd think a Goomba could break 20% on Link if it wasn't for SFF. I've been wanting to see a Goomba in these contests for years (sadly Goomba may actually be slowly declining in strength over time due to lack of exposure). I've thought for a long time that Goomba would be over 20% on Link in strength, indirectly. And Goomba would be franchise/nostalgia/actual likability voting, not joke voting (outside the first hour - thought he first hour people would be more likely to nostalgia vote anyway). --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2007 1:22:30 PM | message detail |
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Vincent (2005c raw) VS Ganondorf (2005c raw) Vincent has a strength of 35.58. Ganondorf has a strength of 28.03. Vincent wins with 60.61% of the vote! A win of 19,799 with 93,303 total votes cast. lol kh TuRtLe ~~~ 133/176 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Vincenzo BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| swirIdude | Posted 10/11/2007 1:22:39 PM | message detail |
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How the hell can you not see Mario/Samus as being an SFF fest? ...uh, I just SAID it was an "SFF Fest" --- Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe |
| Warsola | Posted 10/11/2007 1:22:40 PM | message detail |
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I think Goomba would be more like L-Block than, say, CATS. --- And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes! |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2007 1:22:56 PM | message detail |
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But more importantly is the fact that Big Boss' performance didn't
necessarily have ANYTHING to do with Brawl. "Naked Snake" is a high
midcarder, at least. --- Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/11/2007 1:29:40 PM | message detail |
| I think Naked Snake would be just a little weaker
than Solid Snake when Metal Gear Solid was still new...and we never saw
Solid in action until the first contest in 2k2, when MGS2's release was
still recent. Take that as you will. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/11/2007 2:05:46 PM | message detail |
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Time .| Link ......| Bidoof ..| Vincent .| Zelda 01:00 | 43.33% | 24.48% | 24.36% | 7.84% 02:00 | 44.80% | 21.47% | 25.74% | 07.99% 03:00 | 46.54% | 15.29% | 29.71% | 08.46% 04:00 | 46.88% | 13.90% | 30.80% | 08.41% 05:00 | 46.78% | 11.58% | 33.11% | 08.53% 06:00 | 48.45% | 10.14% | 32.34% | 09.07% 07:00 | 50.69% | 12.76% | 28.84% | 07.71% 08:00 | 52.35% | 11.56% | 27.95% | 08.13% 09:00 | 52.92% | 11.23% | 27.21% | 08.63% 10:00 | 51.30% | 11.36% | 29.07% | 08.26% 11:00 | 52.24% | 09.90% | 29.73% | 08.13% 12:00 | 52.85% | 10.32% | 29.08% | 07.76% 13:00 | 51.46% | 11.23% | 29.40% | 07.91% 14:00 | 52.46% | 10.01% | 29.60% | 07.93% 15:00 | 53.08% | 09.98% | 29.07% | 07.88% 16:00 | 54.73% | 11.80% | 26.67% | 06.80% 17:00 | 55.35% | 11.51% | 26.32% | 06.82% Poor Zelda --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| RockMFR 5 | Posted 10/11/2007 2:06:03 PM | message detail |
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...and Link breaks 50%. --- Save the cheerleader, save the world. o_0 The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n. |
| ZFS | Posted 10/11/2007 2:06:43 PM | message detail |
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Well hochi is the only guy doing that right? And he's been like that since the beginning I think. No. I saw a few people doing that just one page back for whatever reason. Hochi is hochi -- I wouldn't have said anything if he was talking about it! --- let's mosey |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/11/2007 2:06:44 PM | message detail |
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why hello there 50% Vincent's all "hey I'm under 28%" Link has one hell of an afterschool vote. he might even increase on Master Chief in the daytime. that's nuts. --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/11/2007 2:07:55 PM | message detail |
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I mean, Vincent took the day vote from Zelda and Link's making him go DOWN. crazy. --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| ZFS | Posted 10/11/2007 2:09:23 PM | message detail |
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Well, that's not really surprising. Link has done this to Cloud, so it was definitely going to happen to Vincent -- he's Link's only competition for the day vote, too. --- let's mosey |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/11/2007 2:10:00 PM | message detail |
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well, I figured Vincent would stay stable and Bidoof/Zelda would take all the damage. no sir. --- xyzzy "And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy |
| TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/11/2007 2:10:17 PM | message detail |
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o_O Last time I checked this poll, Link was at 44 or so. WTF happened? --- Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!? Squall: ...Flower. |
| ZFS | Posted 10/11/2007 2:13:27 PM | message detail |
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Eh, Vincent's certainly taking a hit, but he's going to end up being
right around 28% when it's all over. I'd expect him to get back up
there later tonight. Link's doing well, but this isn't shocking or
anything, I don't think. --- let's mosey |
| BesaidGuy | Posted 10/11/2007 2:13:47 PM | message detail |
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Master Chief in Brawl? What would this do to the contest? --- FuturamandFFX/TheRealoSix AndyManCan's favorite user |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/11/2007 2:19:37 PM | message detail |
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It would get people much more behind Microsoft or much more against Nintendo. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| BesaidGuy | Posted 10/11/2007 2:20:09 PM | message detail |
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BELIEVE --- FuturamandFFX/TheRealoSix AndyManCan's favorite user |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/11/2007 2:20:30 PM | message detail |
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BOLD PREDICTION: Zero almost manages to come within five percent of Raiden (from below)! ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/11/2007 2:20:53 PM | message detail |
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From HaRRicH Posted 10/11/2007 5:19:37 PM #496 It would get people much more behind Microsoft or much more against Nintendo. Hopefully the latter. =D ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| BesaidGuy | Posted 10/11/2007 2:21:01 PM | message detail |
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Believe --- FuturamandFFX/TheRealoSix AndyManCan's favorite user |
