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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 513

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/9/2007 12:00:44 AM | message detail
I don't see why people are so surprised. This is clearly SFF in action. If it had been say, Wario instead of CATS last round, Sephy would be performing like this too.

I just figured Fox's higher strength would cancel out the SFF advantage Sephy has here.

This is also why Big Boss looked so good last round. Mario and Pac-Man were doing the same thing to eachother.

TuRtLe
~~~
115/152 in the contest. Next pick: Auron > King Koopa
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2007 12:04:52 AM | message detail
Except Big Boss did significantly better in that four-way match than he was supposed to on Mario alone.
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/9/2007 12:44:34 AM | message detail
And Sephiroth just passed his round 1 percentage already.
Keno316 | Posted 10/9/2007 12:46:53 AM | message detail
I guess keep an eye on the votals, if they're lower than usual, guess the 3 way between Ninty characters is at fault...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/9/2007 1:33:28 AM | message detail
That update was Meta Knight > Wario > Fox

Fox is so screwed
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/9/2007 3:04:53 AM | message detail
Time .| Seph ....| Meta ......| Fox .......| Wario
01:00 | 53.04% | 14.85% | 22.67% | 09.44%
02:00 | 55.51% | 13.27% | 21.02% | 10.20%
03:00 | 58.39% | 12.48% | 18.82% | 10.31%
04:00 | 58.23% | 12.60% | 18.23% | 10.94%
05:00 | 60.16% | 12.00% | 16.53% | 11.31%
06:00 | 61.11% | 11.39% | 16.94% | 10.56%

Fear the 61% hour
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/9/2007 3:37:44 AM | message detail
Wow Sephy is actually doing better in this match than in the last one, and now Fox (aka a character with a real fanbase) is in the poll.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/9/2007 3:39:13 AM | message detail
Hah, the morning vote doesn't look like it'll be doing Sephiroth any favors. Well with this kind of competition that's no surprise
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Forceful Dragon | Posted 10/9/2007 3:40:29 AM | message detail
Meta Knight's best hour still loses to Fox's worst.

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Eff Dee
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/9/2007 3:52:56 AM | message detail
I just noticed Big Boss picture tomorrow, Magus is so screwed.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
Luis_Sera89 | Posted 10/9/2007 5:35:03 AM | message detail
Oh GameFAQs Character Battles, you're a harsh mistress! Why must you taunt me so with this whole notion if people not voting for Wario? Ridiculous!

Also WTF at listing Wario's fanbase and not mentioning Luis.
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"Eet's game time..."
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/9/2007 7:46:12 AM | message detail
ruh-roh

Cloud and Sephiroth's performances are looking a lot like 2003...
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Feel my truth.
Dilated Chemist | Posted 10/9/2007 7:48:26 AM | message detail
Link is dethroned confirmed.
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Our life is short and our days run; as fast away as does the sun. And as a vapour or a drop of rain; once lost can ne'er be found again.
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/9/2007 7:49:37 AM | message detail
tag KB
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2007 7:49:39 AM | message detail
argh stop hyping it have we learned nothing

I mean Snake > Link believe
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
BDawg | Posted 10/9/2007 7:57:30 AM | message detail
Sigh when will they stop ripping percentage from Fox. He went from the high end of my expectations to the low end in one night.
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Should I start running now?
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2007 8:01:34 AM | message detail
I find this Wario over 10% crap much more disturbing!
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
transience | Posted 10/9/2007 8:03:27 AM | message detail
'tis the morning vote - the day vote will push him back below!

uhh maybe
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"All I can do... is just sit with them."
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2007 8:39:52 AM | message detail
I liked this match more when Fox was beating MK and Wario combined.
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/9/2007 8:41:35 AM | message detail
I liked this match more when Wario had a giant sword sticking through his back. Meta Knight > Wario still warms my heart though. :)
swirIdude | Posted 10/9/2007 8:43:17 AM | message detail
I liked this match more when I thought it said Phoenix Wright had over 50%.
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Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/9/2007 8:44:10 AM | message detail
I liked this match more when Sir ****ing Meta-Knight was doubling Wario.
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2007 8:45:14 AM | message detail
I liked this match more when HAY GUYZ DID YOU SEE BIG BOSS'S PICTURE
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
swirIdude | Posted 10/9/2007 8:50:05 AM | message detail
I liked this match more when I didn't see Big Boss's picture.
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Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
creativename | Posted 10/9/2007 9:04:33 AM | message detail
This is an absolutely tremendous performance by Sephiroth today.

I also take issue with the idea that this performance doesn't 'mean' anything. This contest is the first time that we were able to see Sephy in this format without being drained by Cloud. When we saw Sephiroth last round the performance was extremely disappointing, to the point where the speculation was that him being a chump in this format was perhaps more than Cloud draining him last year.

Good observation.
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smitelf | Posted 10/9/2007 9:04:58 AM | message detail
What the hell, Seph? It's like Fox just put on a pink dress and knelt down to pray.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21
creativename | Posted 10/9/2007 9:10:43 AM | message detail
You know, so far we've seen Cloud and Sephiroth both with a tremendous performance so far. And Link's wasn't particularly great (though Sephiroth was also underwhelming in round 1).

And I'm not sure if Link will do that great this round either, because Vincent might do real well.

Also we've seen how spectacular "This is my story bee-yotch!" Auron has done. Cloud/Sephiroth/Auron/Vincent obviously have similarities.

Again, this goes with the idea of this format potentially improving Cloud's chances. Most likely nothing will actually come of it, but some vibe is there.
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Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/9/2007 9:11:42 AM | message detail
Magus is screwed.


LOL Magus. Remember when he was going to beat Squall?


KB
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2007 9:12:26 AM | message detail
I remember when Squall was going to beat Sub-Zero

Those were the days
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/9/2007 9:13:36 AM | message detail
Yay, Wario's above 10%! His fans are no less dilligent than Fox's! </counter>

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2007 9:14:32 AM | message detail
Poor Peach.

...I can't stop laughing.
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
smitelf | Posted 10/9/2007 9:16:11 AM | message detail
Nah, Link's still a lock. We've seen how well Link does in this format already.

Link will do "terribly" by comparison in this round, though; his competition (Vincent) is much tougher, and he's one of three Nintendo characters in the match. I predict that Link will fail to get 50%, and people will start foolishly jumping on the hochi bandwagon.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2007 9:19:55 AM | message detail
If Link fails to get 50%, that bandwagon deserves to be started. Considering there's an entity there that he could conceivably kill even worse than 'dorf and friggin' BIDOOF, along with how he performed in the Royale against Cloud, Sephiroth, and Solid Snake... yeah.
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
smitelf | Posted 10/9/2007 9:25:30 AM | message detail
The problem for Link is that his fanbase overlaps WAY more with Zelda's and Bidoof's than Vincent's does. Vincent is going to look godly after that match.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2007 9:28:07 AM | message detail
Yeah, Vincent's going to look like gold probably every match from here on out unless Sephiroth kills him (unlikely, assuming he gets there)...but Link's going to bounce right back next round against Vinny/Crono/Zero.
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BesaidGuy | Posted 10/9/2007 9:42:20 AM | message detail
but the performance seems a lot more forgivable and more the fault of CATS than anything else looking at this.


So far, this is the greatest thing posted in any of the stats topics this year.

Also SPF means we NEED to get the balls from pong into this contest.

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Rufus Shinra 18 | Posted 10/9/2007 10:01:43 AM | message detail
Badass looking characters just work well in this format.

Check the FF VII Boys, Auron, MK Ninjas, even Ryu Hayabusa. None of them had reason to improve, yet they are really impressing.
Also female characters failing is because of this format. I think samus and Ada are the only female who impressed, and infact they're just so badass.
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Rufus Shinra 18 | Posted 10/9/2007 10:03:53 AM | message detail
also put non-raiden MGS crew into the badass category.
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Litfiba: the best Italian rock Band ever.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/9/2007 10:29:38 AM | message detail
Badass as the MGS characters may be, they don't look badass at all. Raiden's really the only one of them that does look badass.

PoP also looked pretty damned badass, and he performed quite poorly.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
Crimson Dragoon | Posted 10/9/2007 10:40:02 AM | message detail
Sub-Zero looked more badass than the Prince though, so the BAF drained all of Prince's votes to Subby.

Oh, and people were obviously on their second playthrough of MKII.
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~FFDragon. (at Work !!) The Cream of Resident Evil Fanboyism.
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/9/2007 10:42:08 AM | message detail
You guys think Big Boss is going to do well tomorrow because of his pic? People may think "hey, that looks like Snake" but then they see "Big Boss" and they go, "Nope, not Snake." The voters are dumb but they're not THAT dumb. But I'm glad Big Boss got a Naked Snake pic. This sheep **** can be laid to rest once and for all
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Hochiminh155's Trail to Failure
swirldude has exposed me as a prediction fraud.
Crimson Dragoon | Posted 10/9/2007 10:42:48 AM | message detail
What if people start a second playthrough of MGS3 tomorrow, huh? WHAT THEN?!
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~FFDragon. (at Work !!) The Cream of Resident Evil Fanboyism.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/9/2007 10:48:32 AM | message detail
Sadly, most MGS3 players played the game for the second time in the months after Subsistence came out. Clearly, it's what allowed Snake to beat Sephiroth in 2k6.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
Crimson Dragoon | Posted 10/9/2007 10:54:21 AM | message detail
Touche, good sir. You win this round.
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~FFDragon. (at Work !!) The Cream of Resident Evil Fanboyism.
consolefreak | Posted 10/9/2007 11:30:02 AM | message detail
Somewhat boring match but awesome to see some solid Sephiroth action. The biggest reason he's doing so much better compared to last round is without a doubt the exclusion of CATS, but I think you can also account for a small FFT boost. It's bringing a lot of people to the site, if the top 50 can account for anything. Lawl CJ



So...how well does everybody think Auron will hold up to Cloud next round? Before you answer, I have some points of interest I tried the other day but can elaborate on now:

1) Ryu got 41.02% against Bowser in 2k5, and now got 36.3% against Bowser/Mewtwo/Toad.
2) Yoshi got 31.92% against Mega Man in 2k5, and now got 28.24% against Mega Man/Knuckles/KOS-MOS.

Those two examples lead me to believe that -- when involving two characters we've seen face off before and believe had an anomaly -- the SFF'd/under-performing one doesn't move much when you throw in competition weaker than said victim of an anomaly. Nobody is taking Mewtwo/Toad over Ryu, and nobody is taking Knuckles/KOS-MOS over Yoshi anymore (though my bracket did in the first round for both instances...grrr)...and when you throw in the characters that SFF'd them, very few people vote for Mewtwo/Toad over Ryu or Knuckles/KOS-MOS over Yoshi. In fact, they both retained ~88.5% of their voters. This is very interesting to me...

...since Auron got 27.8% against Cloud in 2k3. Assuming that number stayed accurate and Auron kept 88.5% of them, Auron manages 24.6% next round...which beats what Bowser currently has right now and ~1.5% under what Ryu currently has in today's match. Auron also has new reason to gain strength since 2k3 too: KH2 did him a lot of favors last year. Since Auron > Ryu and Fenix, there's a very good chance Auron survives next round. It doesn't hurt that he's nearly got a 10% gap on Ryu right now, either.


If anybody wants to argue against this based on Ryu's performance today with Bowser in the poll, save it; Auron is proving he's stronger than Bowser or Ryu, and my theory is looking like it works best when the SFF'er and SFF'd are first and second in strength (respectively). I want to see how Sora does with Aeris/Squall before I really get behind this though.


Heh :d A bit random, but pretty interesting nonetheless. It should be noted though that Cloud and Auron are a lot more related than the characters from your examples. I personally don't see it happening, but I suppose it could.


Sooooo, just how many people were gutsy enough to have Big Boss advance to the 3rd round?

My speed bracket does :p Though that was more out of rushing than anything else -- no way I can justify anyone taking Big Boss there, even if it may actually be happening now. The funniest thing is my speed bracket will actually have more points than my main bracket if it happens.

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116/152. Today : Auron > Bowser. Tomorrow : Sephiroth > Fox
*One_Winged_Ange*
consolefreak | Posted 10/9/2007 11:32:18 AM | message detail
About FFT, I gotta say that is one awesome game. I never had the opportunity to play it before, and I am pleasantly surprised with the experience. And yes, it's far better than FFTA, should anyone remember that argument.
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120/160. Today : Sephiroth > Fox. Tomorrow : Mario > Magus
*One_Winged_Ange*
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/9/2007 11:33:36 AM | message detail
You shouldn't even have to bring up the fact that it's better than FFTA. I think that's already established in the constitution or something
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/9/2007 11:35:35 AM | message detail
I wonder if Fox will crush Wario with the ASV as much as he did in the first round
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/9/2007 11:38:12 AM | message detail
He will.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/9/2007 11:39:42 AM | message detail
Haste2! You're a Wario fan right? You understand? No one likes him :(
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
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