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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 512

YoAriel33 | Posted 10/8/2007 8:44:12 AM | message detail
I'm almost liking him to move on ahead of Cloud! rSFF pushed to the threshold !!
Who Cares? | Posted 10/8/2007 8:48:26 AM | message detail
Oh I'm not counting Bowser compeletly out, but I just feel that Ryu built just enough of a cushion for this onsluaght at night. But if Bowser gets it, lets say, under 1000 by 1pm when I leave for work, ugh! :p
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Current Points: 111
Maximum Possible Points: 727/768
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/8/2007 8:49:26 AM | message detail
How do you make the updater to only include Bowser and Ryu and their votes per update?
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caps
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/8/2007 8:51:35 AM | message detail
Bowser gave it a shot, but the kids are now in school, and Ryu will have a good three hours to slowly extend his lead. It should easily be over 1,500, and Bowser doesn't have the type of after school vote to come back from that, especially when he and his competitor are only playing with ~50% of the vote.
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/8/2007 8:53:17 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Keno316 | Posted 10/8/2007 8:53:54 AM | message detail
Ryu's not taking it lying down.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
charmander6000 | Posted 10/8/2007 8:55:32 AM | message detail
Nice to see Bowser bring the percent difference from 5.3% to 2%.

So it looks like Bowser won't be doing much until the small ASV.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 36: Bowser > Auron Points: 111/152
ZFS | Posted 10/8/2007 8:59:05 AM | message detail
Also, it's become clear that 55/45 mano-y-mano differences can easily be flip-flopped by this format. Cloud still has to be the big underdog of course, but he has a non-trivial shot.

I'd agree.

If Cloud can keep impressing each round -- come out strong in round 3 and 4 -- he may be looking for a possible upset in the finals. Judging by what we've seen of this contest, I think Cloud could make it a match there, even if he doesn't win. Probably nothing to get too hyped on right now, but I think Cloud may be showing some signs here -- 61% in round 1, 56% in round 2; 80,000+ votes in both matches against characters who aren't terrible fodder. Link would still be the big favorite just because he's Link, but if he looks more "normal" in these upcoming rounds to Cloud's more impressive showings, I'd say things would be looking pretty good for ol' spiky!

It'll be good to see how it goes, anyway. Always a good time during the contest when we're comparing Cloud and Link against each other -- BUT I BELIEVE (blame fanboyism, lets mosey, etc. etc.!!)

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let's mosey
ZFS | Posted 10/8/2007 9:00:09 AM | message detail
Out of curiosity, since I know some folks have probably been all over this -- how good (bad) is Ryu's after school vote?

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let's mosey
Keno316 | Posted 10/8/2007 9:01:40 AM | message detail
I, for one, want to see Cloud make a match of it. Link over dominance is fine and all, but I want to see a shakeup in the upper echelons of the rankings. Even if its only in this format.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/8/2007 9:04:09 AM | message detail
I agree that Cloud might exploit the differences in this format to give himself a significantly greater chance of victoly than in a 1v1 match. Of course, it was, until very recently, assumed that Snake and Sonic would be joining them. Call me out if you disagree, but I think that Snake hurts Cloud more and, conversely, Sonic hurts Link more in such a format. If Sonic were to hurt Link more than Snake were to hurt Cloud, then boom; there's your biggest chance at the finals upset. However, Sonic Team has looked pretty damn crappy in all six of their matches. If someone else were to sneak in the finals (I'm looking at Chief, but at this point I'm willing to consider a good three or four guys), it would take a miracle for Link to lose.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/8/2007 9:04:55 AM | message detail
Ryu's ASV's last year

Time .| Kratos ..| Ryu
01:00 | 39.08% | 60.92%
02:00 | 38.33% | 61.67%
03:00 | 35.79% | 64.21%
04:00 | 37.50% | 62.50%
05:00 | 38.09% | 61.91%
06:00 | 36.73% | 63.27%
07:00 | 40.62% | 59.38%
08:00 | 42.24% | 57.76%
09:00 | 40.66% | 59.34%
10:00 | 42.53% | 57.47%
11:00 | 42.25% | 57.75%
12:00 | 40.80% | 59.20%
13:00 | 41.93% | 58.07%
14:00 | 42.27% | 57.73%
15:00 | 43.95% | 56.05%
16:00 | 46.61% | 53.39%
17:00 | 47.94% | 52.06%
18:00 | 48.39% | 51.61%
19:00 | 46.72% | 53.28%
20:00 | 46.33% | 53.67%
21:00 | 47.39% | 52.61%
22:00 | 45.87% | 54.13%
23:00 | 43.57% | 56.43%
00:00 | 41.29% | 58.71%


Time. | Ryu ......| Megaman
01:00 | 39.45% | 60.55%
02:00 | 41.33% | 58.67%
03:00 | 44.77% | 55.23%
04:00 | 47.47% | 52.53%
05:00 | 49.56% | 50.44%
06:00 | 47.51% | 52.49%
07:00 | 43.86% | 56.14%
08:00 | 42.94% | 57.06%
09:00 | 43.12% | 56.88%
10:00 | 42.82% | 57.18%
11:00 | 42.91% | 57.09%
12:00 | 44.11% | 55.89%
13:00 | 43.62% | 56.38%
14:00 | 44.75% | 55.25%
15:00 | 40.77% | 59.23%
16:00 | 39.32% | 60.68%
17:00 | 39.57% | 60.43%
18:00 | 39.34% | 60.66%
19:00 | 40.00% | 60.00%
20:00 | 39.57% | 60.43%
21:00 | 41.50% | 58.50%
22:00 | 42.12% | 57.88%
23:00 | 42.61% | 57.39%
00:00 | 41.14% | 58.86%

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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/8/2007 9:07:58 AM | message detail
Time .| Auron ...| Shadow | Ryu ......| Bowser
01:00 | 34.51% | 12.06% | 27.83% | 25.61%
02:00 | 34.98% | 11.21% | 30.00% | 23.82%
03:00 | 34.46% | 11.40% | 30.79% | 23.34%
04:00 | 36.83% | 10.21% | 30.31% | 22.65%
05:00 | 37.28% | 11.66% | 29.64% | 21.42%
06:00 | 37.78% | 10.86% | 29.26% | 22.10%
07:00 | 38.32% | 13.15% | 23.68% | 24.85%
08:00 | 37.29% | 13.61% | 23.65% | 25.45%
09:00 | 35.21% | 14.77% | 23.79% | 26.23%
10:00 | 35.14% | 13.57% | 24.99% | 26.30%
11:00 | 35.56% | 13.54% | 24.02% | 26.87%
12:00 | 35.32% | 14.69% | 24.81% | 25.18%


Oh noes Shadow stole Bowser's percents
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 9:08:06 AM | message detail
Ugh, yeah, this is over.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/8/2007 9:15:33 AM | message detail
Nooo Bowser
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
ZFS | Posted 10/8/2007 9:16:19 AM | message detail
If Sonic were to hurt Link more than Snake were to hurt Cloud, then boom; there's your biggest chance at the finals upset. However, Sonic Team has looked pretty damn crappy in all six of their matches. If someone else were to sneak in the finals (I'm looking at Chief, but at this point I'm willing to consider a good three or four guys), it would take a miracle for Link to lose.

Yeah, I know what you're saying. The Sonic crew has been pretty unimpressive, and it'd be hard to imagine Sonic stealing away that chunk of Link for things to be all that significant there, especially with any possibility there that Snake could hurt Cloud.

But, if for whatever reason Cloud is stronger here than he was last year, he may not need that much to bring down Link. It's hard for me to say either way on that, though. There'd be almost no reason for him to be better here than he was in the Battle Royale last year, but we're seeing some crazy things this year so who knows. Probably best to wait to see what Link does later this round.

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let's mosey
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/8/2007 9:19:14 AM | message detail
...Yeah this is done. Bowser's just pathetic right now.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/8/2007 9:19:18 AM | message detail
I have this weird feeling that Link is merely going to perform "decently" in this round, but then destroy the Crono/Vincent/Zero match. Something about that damned stupid looking Pokemon being in the poll. Feels funny.

GET HIM OUT OF HERE.
RockMFR 5 | Posted 10/8/2007 9:20:06 AM | message detail
Bowser! What are you doing?!?!?!
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The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n.
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 9:20:37 AM | message detail
Yeah and now Ryu is dominating Bowser.

What the **** you princess capturing cowardly little ****.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/8/2007 9:22:01 AM | message detail
He's making me regret not voting for the badass Auron that's what he's doing.

...

That seems a bit unnatural. OK, which one of you Squareheads brainwashed me?
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 9:22:40 AM | message detail
Not me, I want Square to combust horribly
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ZFS | Posted 10/8/2007 9:23:44 AM | message detail
augh bidoof



Heh. Ryu's taking off right now too it looks like.

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let's mosey
Keno316 | Posted 10/8/2007 9:24:49 AM | message detail
Bowser just rolled over and died...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
octoinky | Posted 10/8/2007 9:26:28 AM | message detail
IMO, the best sequence of events to see Cloud > Link is..


Link > Vincent (> Crono > xxx)
Link > Mario (> Sephiroth > Vincent) (lol, but still..)
Cloud > Link > Samus > Mario.

Link > Cloud in finals, though.




I think the only stretch is assuming Vincent/Seph SFF and Link/Mario SFF allows just the overall nintendo vote to outdo the FF7 vote, and hopefully meaning both Link/Mario go through. Unfortunately, I think Mario is last in that poll (even when Vincent is there), but I went for the above in my bracket just as a shakeup, knowing I can't win with a "standard" bracket.


That's a 32 point swing in the semis to see Cloud > Link though, so its basically all the hope I have for my bracket, as I doubt very many go Cloud > Link, then switch back to Link > Cloud in the finals.
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 9:27:00 AM | message detail
Actually scratch that, I want BOWSER to combust horribly for being a little **** and giving me false hope.
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TexasAggie | Posted 10/8/2007 9:35:11 AM | message detail
Why are you guys ignoring the obvious? We could very well end up seeing Cloud>Link>Snake>Ganon.
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Contest pts: 115 (leaderboard position #27)
Today: Cloud>Jill
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/8/2007 9:38:25 AM | message detail
Ganondorf is not getting to the finals.
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/8/2007 9:39:46 AM | message detail
If Ganondorf should get to the finals, Ganondorf will get less than five percent.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 9:40:30 AM | message detail
oh yay, the little dragon wannabe who can't fly green **** made a cut -_-
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swirIdude | Posted 10/8/2007 9:40:57 AM | message detail
If Ganondorf should get to the finals, Ganondorf will get less than five percent.

Ganondorf gets votes?
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Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/8/2007 9:41:06 AM | message detail
I'm pretty sure the only vote Ganondorf would get is Moltar's, and he might be in bracket-vote mode if he's still in contention.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/8/2007 9:41:08 AM | message detail
Sonic would hurt Link a lot more than Ganondorf... But seeing Ganondorf in the final could be fun, since he would look like Tanner :P
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
BDawg | Posted 10/8/2007 9:45:10 AM | message detail
I really not gonna hold my breath for an afterschool vote to save Bowser, but if they want to pump more percentage into Auron that would be fine with me.
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Should I start running now?
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 9:45:15 AM | message detail
Normal service resumed, then, for that little ****.
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/8/2007 9:45:53 AM | message detail
From swirIdude Posted 10/8/2007 12:40:57 PM #431
Ganondorf gets votes?

I guess you're right. My reasoning was that if you voted for Ganondorf over Link, you'll probably vote for him over anything.

But now that I think about it I kind of disprove that theory myself. <_<
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
swirIdude | Posted 10/8/2007 9:49:44 AM | message detail
Lady Ashe has a new theory!

OBJECTION!

I have evidence that counters the theory!

Present -> Lady Ashe
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Ummm Jesus never had co-op adventure mode. Brawl is a little bit better. ~McMoogle
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
LordOfDabu | Posted 10/8/2007 9:58:56 AM | message detail
After School Vote? Don't people get off for Columbus day? (I do)
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Hello world
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/8/2007 9:59:04 AM | message detail
A 42 gain by Ryu, beautiful, and here I was worried that two MK ninjas would get futher in the contest than the fighting icon.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
Majin Lou | Posted 10/8/2007 9:59:11 AM | message detail
Ooh, Ryu lead back to 1500. Just keep sucking, Bowser.
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http://danceandstomp.net/forum/
Desert Rose, why do you live alone? If you are sad, I'll make you leave this life.
voltch | Posted 10/8/2007 10:02:21 AM | message detail
what happened when i left this morning ryu was leading by about 1000 votes and in all this time he's only gained 400 votes?
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
BDawg | Posted 10/8/2007 10:02:27 AM | message detail
Someone flipped on a night vote switch and Auron and Ryu suddenly got pumped. But about Columbus day, well I don't know it's a pretty bogus holiday. I'm sure some people got if off but I don't know if it's even a majority.
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Should I start running now?
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/8/2007 10:03:47 AM | message detail
I told you all last night this wasn't over when you all said it was., Also


That just screams Shadow is getting SFFed by Bowser or Ryu in this match...but that makes no sense.

Isn't this hochiminh's theory (or something along those lines)?

Oh god...



Yep. And NOW I see you guys are getting cold feet about Link winning.

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Hochiminh155's Trail to Failure
swirldude has exposed me as a prediction fraud.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/8/2007 10:05:05 AM | message detail
Don't people get off for Columbus day? (I do)

Oh, Dabu. If I didn't hold you in such high regard, I'd be all over this post. =P
shadow8021 | Posted 10/8/2007 10:06:03 AM | message detail
Wow, this was a character who went even with Snake two years ago? Wow, you disgust me Bowser.
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Character Battle Score: 122/152
Today's Pick: Auron > Bowser
BDawg | Posted 10/8/2007 10:07:27 AM | message detail
Everybody knows going even with Snake is a kiss of death. Oh snap Sephiroth bomba?!
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Should I start running now?
voltch | Posted 10/8/2007 10:08:50 AM | message detail
Sprite snake can be as low as frog mate,you just can't compare the two.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/8/2007 10:09:33 AM | message detail
The schools in my district are still in-session today.
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
voltch | Posted 10/8/2007 10:12:51 AM | message detail
what's columbus day?
a day to celebrate some italien guy coming to america after vikings who came hundreds of years before?
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
consolefreak | Posted 10/8/2007 10:18:36 AM | message detail
Yep. And NOW I see you guys are getting cold feet about Link winning.

Who's getting cold feet, exactly? There is no way Cloud will win. No way. Link has Sonic in the 4-pack with whom he shares some overlap (possibly Master Chief with whom he shares little, if any). Cloud has Snake. And Link's considerably stronger already. How can you possibly believe Cloud even stands a chance? You score so well in this contest and yet you cannot acknowledge this cataclysmic oversight?

Also, what is this theory you speak of? With the way Sonic characters have been performing, and the joint general mainstream appeal of Bowser, Shadow and Auron, how is this result in any way surprising?

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116/152. Today : Auron > Bowser. Tomorrow : Sephiroth > Fox
*One_Winged_Ange*
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