GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 512
| The Mana Sword | Posted 10/8/2007 7:34:18 AM | message detail |
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Haha jokes's on you, Ryu. I'm still here. Leaving now though. Really. --- Kleenex - Not on his computer. |
| creativename | Posted 10/8/2007 7:35:00 AM | message detail |
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Master Moltar: You won't be "LOL"ing at him when he makes his day vote comeback! transcience: aww yeah Shadow goin' for 12% believe Haha this made me laugh :) YoAriel And how's this for scary: if Auron manages impressive strides during the day, he won't be very far away from Sonic's percentage. Sub-Zero/Prince of Persia/Viewtiful Joe vs. Ryu/Bowser/Shadow...WHO WINS THAT ONE GUYZ You know at this point, I'm not sure that Auron isn't actually stronger than Sonic in this format. Replace Viewtiful Joe with Auron and I'm not sure who I'd take there. Haste2 As for yesterday's match... Cloud is freaking SCARY. If you use direct x-stats, Cloud is probably about equal to Link (of LAST year). Use King Morgoth's formula, and Cloud is even STRONGER Hmmm, interesting. Also, Kefka didn't do too shabby with holding up to Cloud... it's as if he wasn't SFFed by Cloud in the least (though I'm tempted to say Kefka had some SFF that was canceled out by his dilligent fans), looking at his proportion with Marcus. Yeah, looks like Kefka wasn't SFFed very much. Shadow's expected percentage on Auron last round: 37.77%. For this round (so far): 25.61% Here's the REAL kicker: Auron's percentage drop from last round (so far): 7.67% Ditto for Shadow: 14.01% ...WTF? Seriously, WHAT? That just screams Shadow is getting SFFed by Bowser or Ryu in this match...but that makes no sense. Only stupid theory I could think of is that everybody SFFs Sonic characters in this format...and the stronger they are the more SFF they get (thus the suckiness of Sonic characters in this format increases exponentially as the rounds go on!)...but of course that's dumb. This Shadow thing makes no sense, I am very confuzzled here. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/8/2007 7:35:11 AM | message detail |
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*comes back* Aw yeah Bowser! ...Uh-oh. Should I leave again? --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar |
| AmazingKirby | Posted 10/8/2007 7:36:44 AM | message detail |
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12:35 - ryu wins by a billion votes oops --- caps |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 7:37:21 AM | message detail |
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That just screams Shadow is getting SFFed by Bowser or Ryu in this match...but that makes no sense. Isn't this hochiminh's theory (or something along those lines)? Oh god... --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 7:38:28 AM | message detail |
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srsly though what is Moltar's email meh *waits for update* BOWSER ****ING WINS THIS. --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/8/2007 7:39:07 AM | message detail |
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So the trends will be different today? Bowser continues gaining the whole day then gets a bit of a boost from the semi-ASV? --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar |
| transience | Posted 10/8/2007 7:39:18 AM | message detail |
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yeah, some people (hello) thought that might be a possibility with
Yoshi/Knuckles as well. but when Sonic characters are 0 for 5, I tend
to think that's the problem, not some minimal fanbase overlap. --- SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi. "All I can do... is just sit with them." |
| creativename | Posted 10/8/2007 7:43:35 AM | message detail |
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transcience if Cloud goes and slaughters the Samus/Mega Man grouping while Link disappoints in the Vincent/Crono match or the Sephiroth/Mario/(Vincent/Crono) match, then I think the upset talk will be more justified. I wouldn't be surprised if Vincent does quite well against Link actually. (note that I expect Vincent/Crono to scarcely LFF each other, I don't think their fanbases are that similar...but of course I could be wrong) Samus/Mega Man might have an LFF thing going there though, so I wouldn't necessarily be as impressed by Cloud doing better than expected there. Though if he does "slaughter" them, that's another story. though you can make the argument that Cloud stands a better chance in a four-way without Sephiroth being there Yeah. We don't even know for sure who the 4th character there is going to be, which is also a relevant fact. that said, Cloud absolutely slaughtered Squall The Mega Man/Yoshi thing might apply in this format though. Or maybe not. But, you'd expect Cloud/Squall to share a lot more fanbase than Cloud/Auron anyway, due to Auron being so much more recent. XIII_rocks Mewtwo, arguably stealing the N vote from Bowser, went up 2% and Toad Hmmm...I was thinking Bowser's chances in this match still weren't so great, because he lost % during the ASV in that match. But this is a good point. You've given me hope for Bowser my friend! --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 10/8/2007 7:45:13 AM | message detail |
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yeah, some people (hello) thought that might be a possibility with
Yoshi/Knuckles as well. but when Sonic characters are 0 for 5, I tend
to think that's the problem, not some minimal fanbase overlap. But Shadow sucking isn't the issue, it's that he's sucking so much worse relative to Auron than he was the last round. Really, the numbers Haste2 posted were just massive. I am having a lot of trouble understanding what they mean. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/8/2007 7:49:45 AM | message detail |
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They mean Auron is a beast. Or just that Sonic characters lack a (sizable) hardcore fanbase. o.O ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/8/2007 7:50:38 AM | message detail |
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Auron will win all of his one-on-one matches with about 65% and all of his 1v3 matches with about 35%. It is written --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/8/2007 7:54:03 AM | message detail |
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That was a pretty big drop. o.O ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 7:54:19 AM | message detail |
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What an incredible update from Bowser; what the hell is going on here...? Lead to 1412. --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/8/2007 7:54:26 AM | message detail |
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Crono and Vincent have no overlap? Their votals were lower than Mario/Samus! Zero > Crono/Vincent confirmed! And I'm liking this morning vote for Bowser. Can't wait to see the diluted ASV kick in. He has a shot. TuRtLe ~~~ 115/152 in the contest. Next pick: Auron > King Koopa BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/8/2007 7:55:42 AM | message detail |
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Yeah, I've never understood them not having an overlap. It may not be
terribly big, and combined with Zero sucking I don't expect it to be a
factor, but still. <_< ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/8/2007 7:56:40 AM | message detail |
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Seriously though, I fully expect Vincent to look mighty impressive this
round, starting the Cloud > Link bandwagon going, only to have Link
break 50% in round 3. TuRtLe ~~~ 115/152 in the contest. Next pick: Auron > King Koopa BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| creativename | Posted 10/8/2007 7:58:19 AM | message detail |
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Good lord, this is even worse than I thought. Pegging Auron/Ryu/Bowser/Shadow at 32%/26%/25%/14.50% roughly mimics this match - King Morgoth's excel sheet gives 35.7%, 26.3%, 25%, 13% for this match using those numbers (note that those inputs are probably too low, but only their relative weight matters) Plugging Auron at that same 32%, and the strength for Shadow works out to be roughly 23% for the first round match. Shadow's strength estimate drops from 23% vs. 13%! Both in matches where Auron is winning. That's just craziness. Mind-boggling. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| AmazingKirby | Posted 10/8/2007 8:02:44 AM | message detail |
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I just want to point out that Auron got 64,543 votes last round. The numbers haunt him. >_> --- caps |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 10/8/2007 8:04:17 AM | message detail |
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2nd Comeback Votes needed (5m): 8.88 Based on last half hour: Votes received: 18.5 Lead change at: 17:14 Based on last hour: Votes received: 14.67 Lead change at: 18:52 --- Mustache...and green... www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| dlcb1 | Posted 10/8/2007 8:06:02 AM | message detail |
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Mario/Sonic matchups always give funny results. I assume Bowser is draining Shadow. --- HMMMmmmMMMMMmmmmm............... |
| creativename | Posted 10/8/2007 8:06:29 AM | message detail |
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Go Bowser! :) If Bowser can take the ASV even close to this decisively he wins this...too bad historically he's no good with it. Ryu's still the favorite. I'm going to run with the "Mewtwo hurt Bowser's ASV last round" theory though! I like that theory... Seriously though, I fully expect Vincent to look mighty impressive this round, starting the Cloud > Link bandwagon going, only to have Link break 50% in round 3. I think Vincent will look good this round, but I can't see how Link could break 50% next round. I think 20% is the floor for both Vincent and Crono unless they have startling levels of LFF, so as long as Zero can manage a measly 10% Link isn't breaking 50% there. If you plug Crono and Vincent at 28% on Link (one-on-one), which assumes some LFF, and put Zero at a weak 20%, Link gets just over 46% in that match. Crono and Vincent get 20% and Zero gets about 13.5%. So 50% for Link would mean everybody else just sucked ass and Crono/Vincent killed each other. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/8/2007 8:06:32 AM | message detail |
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That last 15 minute update was brutal 35.23% | 13.50% | 23.04% | 28.24% --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 8:09:14 AM | message detail |
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Wow, Bowser is cutting Ryu to pieces right now. --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| creativename | Posted 10/8/2007 8:09:57 AM | message detail |
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Mario/Sonic matchups always give funny results. I assume Bowser is draining Shadow. But to that extent, weakening Shadow such that round 1 Shadow way more than doubles Round 2 Shadow...I don't know. I really don't know what to make of this. That last 15 minute update was brutal 35.23% | 13.50% | 23.04% | 28.24% Does not compute...dost thou mean brutally awesome? :) --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Keno316 | Posted 10/8/2007 8:12:38 AM | message detail |
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I really am just down right floored with how powerful Auron is in this... --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| creativename | Posted 10/8/2007 8:15:00 AM | message detail |
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Shadow's strength estimate drops from 23% vs. 13%! Whoops, I mean 23% vs. 14.5%. That would imply round 1 Shadow gets about 68% on round 2 Shadow. A massive deviance. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| creativename | Posted 10/8/2007 8:17:50 AM | message detail |
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I really am just down right floored with how powerful Auron is in this... Yes, he's one of the people who was expected to benefit from this format who has actually panned out. Note that I wouldn't expect Yuna to have the same advantages in this format as Auron does, so maybe Master Chief doesn't look quite as beastly as he did at the time. But that's speculation. I would take Auron>Master Chief in this format though, assuming 2 other non-Square characters; it's debatable but Auron has impressed me more so far. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/8/2007 8:17:58 AM | message detail |
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This...IS...AURON'S format. 35% on these guys? No joke. At this point I wouldn't be surprised if he got through Round 3, even with the way Cloud has been performing. Bowser's showing signs of life, but Ryu's still pretty safe. Shadow charging to 13%. Amazing performance from our favorite hedgehog. --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Auron/Shadow/Ryu/Bowser - Bracket: Auron > Ryu - Vote: Shadow (127/152) |
| Haste_2 | Posted 10/8/2007 8:18:37 AM | message detail |
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Seriously though, I fully expect Vincent to look mighty impressive
this round, starting the Cloud > Link bandwagon going, only to have
Link break 50% in round 3. I'm quite confident Link won't break 50% in Round 3... I think it's even more likely he'll fail to break 50% this round. Zelda gets 10%, Bidoof gets 10%, Vincent gets 30%... sounds fair enough. I think the Battle Royale numbers are almost worthless. Auron the favorite next round? Maybe... but, keep in mind that not only did Cloud SFF Auron in his match... which naturally means LFF, double-hurting Auron. Comparing strictly Auron to Ryu today, and it's about what I'd expect between them. But, I sometimes wonder if Auron can resist SFF now, as he's a bit stronger than he was back then, I think. Auron's got my back the next round, though (and I even have Ryu for second in my bracket next round)! --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 8:23:51 AM | message detail |
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Moltar, gimme your goddamn email so I can send you my analysis --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/8/2007 8:23:59 AM | message detail |
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Yeah Shadow, just a little more and you can win an update from Ryu... --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 8:25:35 AM | message detail |
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And this match is right back into the melting pot, by the way. Bowser
cut 100 votes in the last 25 minutes, or something, and his speed will
only increase. He's still a BIT of an outsider, but I wouldn't be comfortable if I was a Ryu fan. --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/8/2007 8:26:48 AM | message detail |
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Ryu is just getting killed here. Bowser just dropped in percent and he was still able to cut the lead. --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Match 36: Bowser > Auron Points: 111/152 |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/8/2007 8:28:31 AM | message detail |
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UH OHS --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/8/2007 8:28:59 AM | message detail |
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Lol and now Ryu just jumped up by 32 votes. --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Match 36: Bowser > Auron Points: 111/152 |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/8/2007 8:30:14 AM | message detail |
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...What the ****? ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/8/2007 8:31:41 AM | message detail |
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That's the most votes Ryu has gotten in one update since... *looks* 1:55 AM >_< --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/8/2007 8:32:48 AM | message detail |
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XFD I leave home and drive to school, and Bowser makes incredible strides. I get here and Ryu kills him on my first refresh. Maybe I should just stay away! |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 8:34:09 AM | message detail |
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XD @ that Ryu with a quick 1-2 punch; 32 and then 14! Bowser, counter it or DIE A HORRIBLE FLAMING DEATH --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| Who Cares? | Posted 10/8/2007 8:35:15 AM | message detail |
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He's still a BIT of an outsider, but I wouldn't be comfortable if I was a Ryu fan. Not THAT nervous right now, heh! Ryu's not going to bleed like this for too much longer. If Bowser's still cutting like crazy by Hour 13...yeah then I'll press the panic button. --- Current Points: 111 Maximum Possible Points: 727/768 |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/8/2007 8:36:31 AM | message detail |
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The only way Bowser pulls this out is if Ryu takes off his disguise and reveals that he is really Donkey Kong all along --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/8/2007 8:37:34 AM | message detail |
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mastermoltar@gmail.com --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Auron/Shadow/Ryu/Bowser - Bracket: Auron > Ryu - Vote: Shadow (127/152) |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 8:38:39 AM | message detail |
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Thanks, sent --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/8/2007 8:38:45 AM | message detail |
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Just a blip in the radar. Bowser comeback continues from now until the end. :) ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 8:39:16 AM | message detail |
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*looks at that update* Not nervous at all? At all? --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| ZFS | Posted 10/8/2007 8:40:07 AM | message detail |
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Whoa. Very impressive from Auron right now. He may end up being a good
10% ahead of Ryu before it's all over. I'm almost liking him to move on
with Cloud! --- let's mosey |
| Who Cares? | Posted 10/8/2007 8:40:49 AM | message detail |
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Nope, this is always the worse time to sit thru an SF match! --- Current Points: 111 Maximum Possible Points: 727/768 |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 8:42:48 AM | message detail |
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Bear in mind that Ryu lost a couple of % in the first hour of the ASV,
and the combined N vote was almost 5%. In that hour alone. --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 8:43:36 AM | message detail |
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Don't get me wrong, I still take Ryu here, but...I think it's a bit meh to count him out. --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
