GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 512
| Warsola | Posted 10/8/2007 3:33:39 AM | message detail |
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Depends on the format. Replace Shadow with Yoshi/Luigi, and I would. 1v1, though....I dunno. --- And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes! |
| transience | Posted 10/8/2007 3:35:48 AM | message detail |
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Bowser's best time and Ryu's worst, and he's going even with him. this is going to get *bad* for Bowser. I think Ryu might win by 5000 votes. --- SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi. "All I can do... is just sit with them." |
| Forceful Dragon | Posted 10/8/2007 3:36:15 AM | message detail |
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1v1... I might actually consider Yoshi to be the odds on favorite at this point, but I dont know how much of bowers under-performace is a result of SFF and what percentage of it his bowers actually performing more weakly. Luigi though doesn't have a shot. --- Eff Dee |
| Forceful Dragon | Posted 10/8/2007 3:38:43 AM | message detail |
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Bowser's best time and Ryu's worst, and he's going even with him. 3:30 AM PST is Bowser's best time? I expected bowser would start hitting stride in another hour or so perhaps, but he's winning just about every update already. 1800 is a good margin, and I really want Ryu to take 2nd, but I'd say this match is still about 50/50 from here, maybe 60/40 in favor of bowser. --- Eff Dee |
| Warsola | Posted 10/8/2007 3:39:47 AM | message detail |
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My current theory is that villains and damsals are going to do pretty
poorly in this format, but I need to see Ganondorf vs. not complete
fodder first >_> --- And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes! |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/8/2007 4:22:18 AM | message detail |
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Ryu has this, Bowser won't have a better dayvote than Axel, and Ryu can't be worse with it than Frog. Ah what a sexy match Mega Man, Samus, Cloud and Ryu will be.... --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI |
| Haste_2 | Posted 10/8/2007 5:18:26 AM | message detail |
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Too much stuff to catch up on (I'm basically two days behind)...I'll do that later. First of all, AWESOME JOB for Ryu today. Bowser is not going to catch up with the afterschool vote, as we saw that Bowser only gained a little on Ryu during that time. Bowser couldn't even close in on Ryu before school. I desparately need points in this round, heh. Of the first five matches I'll be getting only ONE match with full points. =P (heh, but some will be missing ALL of the first five) Secondly, Shadow is doing AWFUL... wow. I don't know if I could even blame anyone for SFF... I think Shadow's just crumbling when against good competition. (just like Knuckles semi-crumbled when a strong Mega Man was added to the competition). Thirdly... WOW at how Auron is doing. 35% is extremely good... that's an 8% drop despite replacing Pyramid Head and Chris with BOWSER and RYU. Even though Ryu's in my bracket for getting second next round, I have to root for Auron, since he's that awesome and all. As for yesterday's match... Cloud is freaking SCARY. If you use direct x-stats, Cloud is probably about equal to Link (of LAST year). Use King Morgoth's formula, and Cloud is even STRONGER. Truthfully, I thought Cloud only did so well last round was because he SFFed both Jill Valentine and Revolver Ocelot a bit... seems I was wrong. One has to say Cloud at least has a small shot against Link. Also, Kefka didn't do too shabby with holding up to Cloud... it's as if he wasn't SFFed by Cloud in the least (though I'm tempted to say Kefka had some SFF that was canceled out by his dilligent fans), looking at his proportion with Marcus. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/8/2007 5:22:07 AM | message detail |
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XD Auron. Replace Chris with Bowser. Replace Pyramid Head with Ryu. Auron: Hmmm... ok ok fine. I'll drop 6-7%. Happy? --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| Draco1214 | Posted 10/8/2007 5:24:04 AM | message detail |
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<3 Auron's domination. Almost makes me wish I'd have gone with that Cloud > Auron upset. --- Currently Playing: Wild Arms 3, Persona 3 |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/8/2007 6:04:29 AM | message detail |
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Right now Bowser needs about 9 votes an update to win. --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Match 36: Bowser > Auron Points: 111/152 |
| Who Cares? | Posted 10/8/2007 6:24:03 AM | message detail |
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Nice to see Ryu build up enough of a cushion for himself for the
dreaded morning vote. There won't be an afterschool vote to fall back
on today either so I say Bowser has about 'til Noon-ish before Ryu
starts holding together again. Looks like my SF fanboyism will actually
payoff in my bracket for once...YAY! --- Current Points: 111 Maximum Possible Points: 727/768 |
| Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/8/2007 6:44:10 AM | message detail |
| not all schools are closed today. KB |
| jonthomson | Posted 10/8/2007 6:45:00 AM | message detail |
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Oh my god my bracket is terrible --- Jon Thomson - 105/152, next picks: Bowser beats Auron Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975 |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/8/2007 6:53:52 AM | message detail |
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More cuts like that Bowser. --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Match 36: Bowser > Auron Points: 111/152 |
| Haste_2 | Posted 10/8/2007 6:54:33 AM | message detail |
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Shadow's expected percentage on Auron last round: 37.77%. For this round (so far): 25.61% Here's the REAL kicker: Auron's percentage drop from last round (so far): 7.67% Ditto for Shadow: 14.01% --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| transience | Posted 10/8/2007 6:57:22 AM | message detail |
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man, I always underestimate how bad SF's morning vote is. I always
think it's just a before school vote, but it goes throughout the entire
morning. looking back, Bowser's peak in his match against Ryu in 2005 was at about 2pm, and that was in the summer. Ryu cut like 2% from that point on (though 1% of it was from midnight to 3am). in their round 1 match, Bowser fell .5% while Ryu fell a full 3%. I guess this has the potential to be close, but I still think Ryu wins without a sweat. --- SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi. "All I can do... is just sit with them." |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 6:59:59 AM | message detail |
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Bowser is making the occasional big cut here. Pretty impressive. I take it Ryu will burn a little after school? --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/8/2007 7:03:12 AM | message detail |
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Bowser fell .5% while Ryu fell a full 3%. I guess this has the
potential to be close, but I still think Ryu wins without a sweat. That means..... that Ryu wins with 0.5% more than Bowser? --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/8/2007 7:03:30 AM | message detail |
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It'd be funny if it was like half weekend half weekday. Bowser gains
until a little past noon, then after school hits and bam, he gains some
more. That would be one of the weirdest comebacks ever --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/8/2007 7:09:05 AM | message detail |
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Aw yeah Bowser! Stay in it! --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar |
| transience | Posted 10/8/2007 7:09:24 AM | message detail |
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let's try this again Time | Bowser | Mewtwo | Ryu . . . | Toad 01:00 | 32.29% | 21.93% | 36.40% | 09.38% 02:00 | 27.79% | 22.09% | 40.58% | 09.53% 03:00 | 27.61% | 22.17% | 40.11% | 10.11% 04:00 | 28.14% | 22.73% | 39.67% | 09.46% 05:00 | 24.51% | 24.31% | 41.80% | 09.38% 06:00 | 26.96% | 25.37% | 39.07% | 08.60% 07:00 | 31.85% | 24.34% | 34.20% | 09.60% 08:00 | 32.34% | 25.31% | 32.64% | 09.71% 09:00 | 30.67% | 23.53% | 34.66% | 11.13% 10:00 | 30.48% | 22.89% | 36.35% | 10.28% 11:00 | 29.53% | 22.43% | 37.64% | 10.40% 12:00 | 29.41% | 23.03% | 37.49% | 10.06% 13:00 | 27.72% | 23.58% | 39.14% | 09.56% 14:00 | 27.62% | 23.74% | 39.29% | 09.35% 15:00 | 27.95% | 25.13% | 36.84% | 10.08% 16:00 | 29.25% | 27.36% | 33.12% | 10.28% 17:00 | 29.15% | 26.85% | 33.03% | 10.97% 18:00 | 28.27% | 27.85% | 32.43% | 11.45% 19:00 | 28.20% | 27.92% | 33.76% | 10.12% 20:00 | 27.95% | 27.74% | 33.69% | 10.63% 21:00 | 27.14% | 27.46% | 34.73% | 10.67% 22:00 | 26.05% | 27.59% | 35.96% | 10.41% 23:00 | 27.13% | 25.82% | 37.48% | 09.58% 00:00 | 24.98% | 25.34% | 38.98% | 10.69% Bowser definitely falls off after his morning vote, but Ryu's afterschool-vote looks about as bad as his morning vote according to this. --- SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi. "All I can do... is just sit with them." |
| transience | Posted 10/8/2007 7:14:01 AM | message detail |
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wow.. this is looking to be one awful hour for Ryu. --- SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi. "All I can do... is just sit with them." |
| RockMFR 5 | Posted 10/8/2007 7:14:06 AM | message detail |
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Hell yeah! Bowser's rollin' now! --- Save the cheerleader, save the world. o_0 The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/8/2007 7:15:18 AM | message detail |
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More updates that that! --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar |
| transience | Posted 10/8/2007 7:19:33 AM | message detail |
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. Time | Auron . .| Shadow . . | Ryu . .. . | Bowser 01:00 | 33.89% | 13.19% | 25.79% | 27.13% 02:00 | 34.59% | 11.90% | 28.11% | 25.40% 03:00 | 34.98% | 11.21% | 30.00% | 23.82% 04:00 | 34.46% | 11.40% | 30.79% | 23.34% 05:00 | 36.83% | 10.21% | 30.31% | 22.65% 06:00 | 37.28% | 11.66% | 29.64% | 21.42% 07:00 | 37.78% | 10.86% | 29.26% | 22.10% 08:00 | 38.32% | 13.15% | 23.68% | 24.85% 09:00 | 37.26% | 13.71% | 23.55% | 25.47% 10:00 | 34.93% | 14.73% | 23.95% | 26.39% --- SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi. "All I can do... is just sit with them." |
| creativename | Posted 10/8/2007 7:20:19 AM | message detail |
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Well now, while Bowser was clearly hurt by LFF, looks like it maybe wasn't to the extent that most of us expected. "It's the format stupid" seems to be the most likely answer. If so, that is bad news for Sonic. I said before his match that I expected a Sub-Zero overperformance leading to stupid MC>Sonic bandwagon talk...yet, it seems that talk's not quite as stupid as I thought it would be. Also, Snake>Squall (rather than Snake>Sonic...assuming Sub-Zero doesn't outlast Squall, which I actually think he will with Aeris/Sora there), or Snake>MC (or even Ganon/Dante? though Dante is the biggest stretch) seem within the realm of possibility. I still think Sonic is the most likely to advance to the final four among MC/Squall/Ganon/Dante/Sub-Zero, but it is really looking quite clear that this format is very bad for Sonic characters, for whatever reason. In fact right now I might even take "the field" consisting of those other characters together as more likely to get into the Final Four than Sonic is. Also, with the influence of the format becoming clearer (it was always expected that the format would affect characters, but not for sure, and the extent was highly speculative), Cloud's chances of beating Link look better now I think. There's no reason to believe the format would be nicer to Cloud than to Link, but any uncertainty makes Cloud's chances not as slim. Also, it's become clear that 55/45 mano-y-mano differences can easily be flip-flopped by this format. Cloud still has to be the big underdog of course, but he has a non-trivial shot. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| The Mana Sword | Posted 10/8/2007 7:20:24 AM | message detail |
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Hmmm, so what are the chances Bowser pulls this one off? Looks like Ryu
missed that 2000 vote mark most people were pushing for. --- Kleenex - Not on his computer. |
| transience | Posted 10/8/2007 7:20:58 AM | message detail |
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heh, looking at those, it's like Ryu has Frog Trends. maybe he's another four hour wonder. --- SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi. "All I can do... is just sit with them." |
| Who Cares? | Posted 10/8/2007 7:21:21 AM | message detail |
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Yeah, I'm starting to think this is more of a weekend vote today. Ryu's going to be biting the bullet for a couple more hours. --- Current Points: 111 Maximum Possible Points: 727/768 |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/8/2007 7:22:02 AM | message detail |
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aww yeah canadian holidays making all the difference ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| The Mana Sword | Posted 10/8/2007 7:22:59 AM | message detail |
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Oh whoa, that's right. Don't a lot of people have off from school today? I know my old school district does. --- Kleenex - Not on his computer. |
| transience | Posted 10/8/2007 7:24:01 AM | message detail |
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Also, with the influence of the format becoming clearer (it was
always expected that the format would affect characters, but not for
sure, and the extent was highly speculative), Cloud's chances of
beating Link look better now I think. There's no reason to believe the
format would be nicer to Cloud than to Link, but any uncertainty makes
Cloud's chances not as slim. Also, it's become clear that 55/45
mano-y-mano differences can easily be flip-flopped by this format.
Cloud still has to be the big underdog of course, but he has a
non-trivial shot. but we've seen this format before -- battle royale, yo. and Link was absolutely dominant in it. is it a 100% certainty that Link wins? no, and it never was, but I consider Link the favourite until he gives us a reason not to. so far, he hasn't. if Cloud goes and slaughters the Samus/Mega Man grouping while Link disappoints in the Vincent/Crono match or the Sephiroth/Mario/(Vincent/Crono) match, then I think the upset talk will be more justified. --- SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi. "All I can do... is just sit with them." |
| The Mana Sword | Posted 10/8/2007 7:24:12 AM | message detail |
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And then Ryu goes and stalls. <_< --- Kleenex - Not on his computer. |
| creativename | Posted 10/8/2007 7:25:22 AM | message detail |
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BTW this is yet another match where the flaws of the bracket scoring
system are revealed - if Auron>Ryu is the outcome here,
Boswer>Ryu is clearly a worse pick than Bowser>Auron (having the
guy who's dominating not even placing is pretty bad), yet the former
will get 2 more points than the latter. Auron looks like the favorite for 2nd next round. And that seemed so unlikely before...you'd figure either Bowser or Ryu would be able to challenge a guy who's getting SFFed by freakin' Cloud, but while obviously Auron can still lose, right now he's looking good. Before the contest, I would've looked at anyone with Cloud>Auron cross-eyed like "OK there you Auron fanboy" (even though I'm an Auron fanboy myself and was tempted for a few moments...though my Bowser fanboyism won out, and I just couldn't see any possible way to justify Cloud>Auron despite SFF) But Auron would have to get SFFed quite heavily to fall under Ryu/Bowser, and that despite this format seeming to play to his strengths. Also, Mega Man/Yoshi seems to imply that the voters for the weaker character in this format are the more stable ones anyway. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| transience | Posted 10/8/2007 7:25:23 AM | message detail |
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though you can make the argument that Cloud stands a better chance in a
four-way without Sephiroth being there.. but we'll see. we won't be
able to tell that until the final. --- SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi. "All I can do... is just sit with them." |
| transience | Posted 10/8/2007 7:27:47 AM | message detail |
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Auron's got a shot there, I'd say. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1355 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1341 a lot's changed since then, but that isn't *too* far off. that said, Cloud absolutely slaughtered Squall. honestly, I'd feel better about Ryu taking second than Bowser, even if Bowser completes this epic comeback. --- SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi. "All I can do... is just sit with them." |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 7:28:18 AM | message detail |
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---------BOWSER-MEWTWO--RYU---TOAD 15:00 | 27.95% | 25.13% | 36.84% | 10.08% 16:00 | 29.25% | 27.36% | 33.12% | 10.28% Bowser gained 1.3% while Ryu lost WELL over 3%. Mewtwo, arguably stealing the N vote from Bowser, went up 2% and Toad, who's weak but a Mario character nonetheless, went up .2%. Bowser isn't in that bad a position... --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/8/2007 7:28:39 AM | message detail |
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yeah not happening grr bowser ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 7:28:41 AM | message detail |
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...He says, as Ryu gains 16. >_< --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/8/2007 7:29:02 AM | message detail |
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Ah hell Bowser. --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar |
| The Mana Sword | Posted 10/8/2007 7:29:25 AM | message detail |
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Bowser is floundering because I showed up. I'll leave now and he'll go right back to making 30 votes cuts. --- Kleenex - Not on his computer. |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/8/2007 7:30:27 AM | message detail |
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You damn well better leave. Can't have Moltar getting too far ahead of us. =/ ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/8/2007 7:31:14 AM | message detail |
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Why don't you stay a little longer Kleenex? :) --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/8/2007 7:31:15 AM | message detail |
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Bowser is floundering because I showed up. I'll leave now and he'll go right back to making 30 votes cuts. Heh, seriously. As soon as I started refreshing, Ryu started kicking it back into gear. --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/8/2007 7:32:28 AM | message detail |
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I just realized I didn't vote today because I can't choose --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/8/2007 7:32:57 AM | message detail |
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Same. *leaves* --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 7:33:23 AM | message detail |
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That reminds me, I need to-HELL YES BOWSER --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
| transience | Posted 10/8/2007 7:33:25 AM | message detail |
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thank you for going away kleenex --- SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi. "All I can do... is just sit with them." |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/8/2007 7:33:48 AM | message detail |
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Ok guys don't come back --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2007 7:34:17 AM | message detail |
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Seroiusly, I need to write that Link/Bidoof/x/y analysis. What's the e-mail for Moltar? --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=34492787 Sign plz "NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows |
