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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 512

TexasAggie | Posted 10/7/2007 10:22:22 PM | message detail
Damnit, I had bowser finishing 2nd to cloud next round.

Then again, I highly doubt too many people took Ryu in 2nd next round anyway.
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Contest pts: 115 (leaderboard position #27)
Today: Cloud>Jill
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 10:23:14 PM | message detail
I know one handsome devil who did.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Auron/Shadow/Ryu/Bowser - Bracket: Auron > Ryu - Vote: Shadow (127/152)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2007 10:30:15 PM | message detail
I have to give Moltar props, he's been looking very good all contest. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins.

TuRtLe
~~~
115/152 in the contest. Next pick: Auron > King Koopa
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
emanresU weN | Posted 10/7/2007 10:30:28 PM | message detail
Stupid Bowser, this is the second time this contest I have been so close to the leaderboard and then screwed up. Grrrr...
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This is The_Ocelot
HaRRicH | Posted 10/7/2007 10:30:52 PM | message detail
If Big Boss gets a picture distinctly from MGS3, he's got the match as far as I'm concerned. Three things that concern me about his chances even before then though:

1) We've talked about MGS/FF fishiness...Auron may have SFF'd Big Boss if his 23% against Mario/Pac/Wander is legit instead of simply a hardcore fanbase.
2) When MGS3 placed #21 on the Top 100 List before MGS3:S came out, that's shown that a lot of people have placed and loved the game. After its release in 2k5, Solid not only jumped back from his 2k4 slump but rose. If many of the people who were responsible for Solid Snake rising that year beat MGS3, then they obviously know who Big Boss is...and if MGS3 helped them vote for Solid against Mario in 2k5, then why would they not back Big Boss now that MGS3:S is out? It might sound confusing, I don't know...just saying that those who know Big Boss know he's a LOT like Solid Snake. Of THAT crowd, how many would vote Magus or Phoenix over Solid?
3) MGS characters have generally been kicking ass thus far this contest. Revolver beat Jill and barely lost to Fenix, The Boss beat Tails, Solid got 58% with Vyse and Nightmare in the poll, and Raiden beat Fisher despite a picture that looks nothing like him in MGS2. Big Boss landed 23% against Mario and Pac-Man already, and Magus didn't look too impressive himself...and Phoenix lost to him once already.


I don't know if it's the right choice or not, but I really like BB's chance.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/7/2007 10:31:44 PM | message detail
Bold Prediction: If Big Boss gets an MGS3 pic, he gives Mario a run for his money !!
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 112/152; Oracle - 22nd
ZFS | Posted 10/7/2007 10:32:28 PM | message detail
Mmm. Tasty.

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let's mosey
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/7/2007 10:32:29 PM | message detail
Is Moltar KirbyKhan by chance?
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Masa/Hiko/HeroicTronBonne/Cory/Buddha
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2007 10:33:09 PM | message detail
Once again though, his 23% was inflated because of what happened between Pac and Mario. Instead of having 3 opponents, it was more like having 2.5. Run that match again, but put say...... Kefka in Pac's place, suddenly Boss is under 18%.

TuRtLe
~~~
115/152 in the contest. Next pick: Auron > King Koopa
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/7/2007 10:34:20 PM | message detail
Solid got 58% with Vyse and Nightmare in the poll

Is this supposed to mean something? Raiden beating Sam Fisher is hardly impressive either.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2007 10:35:03 PM | message detail
Yeah, this match is over.

Goddamn, 3/4 round 2 matches wrong so far. My only consolation is that all 3 of the wrong ones were pretty unpopular picks on the board, and the one I got right had the lowest prediction % in the contest so far.

TuRtLe
~~~
115/152 in the contest. Next pick: Auron > King Koopa
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Keno316 | Posted 10/7/2007 10:42:09 PM | message detail
Most important. LOL Shadow.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 10:45:29 PM | message detail
You won't be "LOL"ing at him when he makes his day vote comeback!
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Auron/Shadow/Ryu/Bowser - Bracket: Auron > Ryu - Vote: Shadow (127/152)
transience | Posted 10/7/2007 10:45:51 PM | message detail
aww yeah Shadow goin' for 12% believe
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 10:56:24 PM | message detail
Ryu's gunning for Auron now!
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Auron/Shadow/Ryu/Bowser - Bracket: Auron > Ryu - Vote: Shadow (127/152)
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/7/2007 11:02:08 PM | message detail
Why is everyone acting like this match is a lock already? I wouldn't feel confident about it until 2500+ votes, and I have Ryu. His morning vote is always absolutely disgusting, and even if Bowser doesn't have the best morning vote of Nintendo characters, he still is one, and can eat away a huge chunk then, and with the ASV.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
transience | Posted 10/7/2007 11:03:58 PM | message detail
this is over, dude. Bowser's day vote is hardly stellar, just that morning vote, and the morning vote isn't going to turn around what looks to be a 2000-2500 vote lead.
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SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi.
"All I can do... is just sit with them."
Heroic Dr Wily | Posted 10/7/2007 11:05:53 PM | message detail
Shadow can steal the day vote from Bowser too.
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Support BIDOOF for this year's contest.
http://benparr.com/bidoof.swf
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/7/2007 11:06:10 PM | message detail
I hope not, but I really don't doubt it happening, or at least coming close.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/7/2007 11:09:44 PM | message detail
This match is over with a capital Z.

Yes, I said Z. I wanted to demonstrate how stupid my picks have been for the entirety of this contest, and that's the best way to do it. I'm the guy who spells "over" with a god damned Z.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/7/2007 11:10:21 PM | message detail
Zover.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 112/152; Oracle - 22nd
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/7/2007 11:10:34 PM | message detail
oh
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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Shrek III | Posted 10/7/2007 11:13:48 PM | message detail
Shadow and Bowser = http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/ShivaCatisNightmare/195034051_m.gif
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"Your honour! I'd like to cross-examine the parrot!" - Phoenix Wright
voltch | Posted 10/7/2007 11:18:09 PM | message detail
damn fighting characters.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/7/2007 11:19:01 PM | message detail
You tell em, voltch. By the way, sorry to bring this up every time I respond to one of your posts, but Disney Character Battle IV? Around the horizon anytime soon? >_>
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
voltch | Posted 10/7/2007 11:27:05 PM | message detail
best disney character?
haven't thought about it much since i got my rare illness,but i suppose now that i'm 90% recovered i could do one during my half term holiday.
Ariel is invincible tough,she's come a long way from her first round defeat to scrooge.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/7/2007 11:30:57 PM | message detail
awww yeah

I don't think she's invincible, though. She needed some mermaid magic to get past quite a few of those matches. =P
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/7/2007 11:31:57 PM | message detail
disney stats and discussion imho
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 112/152; Oracle - 22nd
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 11:33:12 PM | message detail
ariel vs link

who ya got gogogogo
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Auron/Shadow/Ryu/Bowser - Bracket: Auron > Ryu - Vote: Shadow (127/152)
ZFS | Posted 10/7/2007 11:34:49 PM | message detail
mermaid magic will mess you up imo

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let's mosey
voltch | Posted 10/7/2007 11:36:41 PM | message detail
i still don't why freakin belle is so strong either.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
ejm5446 | Posted 10/7/2007 11:40:48 PM | message detail
I have Bowser in my bracket, but after the first round I think this was a pretty easy one to call.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/7/2007 11:41:33 PM | message detail
Do you have the x-stats for the Disney character contest? I'd like to see them if you do.
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Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__
Keno316 | Posted 10/7/2007 11:42:04 PM | message detail
At over 1000 in 2 and a half hours...pretty much done at this point.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
voltch | Posted 10/7/2007 11:42:15 PM | message detail
nope,i don't even know how to calculate them.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/8/2007 1:19:58 AM | message detail
It's not over yet. Ryu has 2 and a half more hours to extend his lead and then... it's all downhill for him. He'll probably get a lead of about 2000-2500 votes.

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Hochiminh155's Trail to Failure
swirldude has exposed me as a prediction fraud.
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/8/2007 1:24:56 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/8/2007 1:49:32 AM | message detail
Taking a look back at Ryu/Bowser 2k5. Ryu died in the morning as always, but he actually gained percentage from 2pm to the end of the match.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/8/2007 1:52:00 AM | message detail
I never thought I'd see Auron kicking Ryu's ass during the dead hours, but the results are right there, staring me in the face. Auron is such a freaking beast now.

Auron vs. Ganondorf rematch: prediction percentages?
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Redtooth | Posted 10/8/2007 1:53:02 AM | message detail
Yea, this Auron is a little scary. Even with Cloud around, I'm still fearing my Cloud>Ryu pick next round...

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Rufus>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
transience | Posted 10/8/2007 2:03:50 AM | message detail
in this format, Auron wins. straight-up? maybe 50-50.

I've felt that way for a while, though, and I think this is a scary Auron. I mean, what's better: 36% on Ryu, Bowser and Shadow or 39% on Zelda, The Boss and Tails?

Bowser ~= Zelda
Shadow > Tails
Ryu >> The Boss

just sayin'.
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SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi.
"All I can do... is just sit with them."
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/8/2007 2:03:57 AM | message detail
Yeah, his lead is pretty huge now: 6% over Ryu and 11% over Bowser. Ryu should collapse in the day while Bowser gains and Auron stays steady (or gains a bit himself?). Who knows what he'll finish with. And how's this for scary: if Auron manages impressive strides during the day, he won't be very far away from Sonic's percentage.

Sub-Zero/Prince of Persia/Viewtiful Joe vs. Ryu/Bowser/Shadow

...WHO WINS THAT ONE GUYZ
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 10/8/2007 2:04:55 AM | message detail
oh, and Ryu is "winning" the night, not Auron. he's increasing in percentage faster than Auron ever could. FF10 has always been a night beast, though. Auron is only average come daytime -- which, of course, is better than Ryu.
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SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi.
"All I can do... is just sit with them."
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/8/2007 2:09:16 AM | message detail
Really? The updater says that Ryu has only managed to gain .02% in the last hour, while Auron has gained .17%. Actually, it's been remarkably steady for the last while. Auron, Ryu, and Shadow are managed very small, consistent gains, and while Bowser is taking the hit for all of it, even he isn't fading that much.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 10/8/2007 2:11:48 AM | message detail
oh, I was just talking in general, not this past hour. Ryu stabilized at 28% and hasn't really stopped going up; Auron's done a little bit less. I'd say Ryu's got the better night vote by a hair, not that it really matters.
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SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Vivi.
"All I can do... is just sit with them."
YoboD | Posted 10/8/2007 2:17:32 AM | message detail
Damn Bowser, I thought you would be doing better this time. Would anyone take Yoshi/Luigi over Bowser now?
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I like shorts, they're comfy and easy to wear.
greatone10 | Posted 10/8/2007 3:14:53 AM | message detail
I still take Bowser over Yoshi, but that's because I am a huge Bowser fanboy.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
Forceful Dragon | Posted 10/8/2007 3:29:14 AM | message detail
>_>

Bowsers starting to win updates now, even if they are by just a couple.

I was hoping ryu could press his advantage a bit more, its going to get *very* close tomorrow I think. I would have only felt safe if ryu led by 2500 or more, as it is I'm nervous.

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Eff Dee
Redtooth | Posted 10/8/2007 3:31:23 AM | message detail
Everyone is too focused on the wrong thing. Shadow just hit a 16% update. We should be dancing in the streets! And he's been by far the most consistent when it comes to raw votes per update.

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Rufus>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
Forceful Dragon | Posted 10/8/2007 3:32:14 AM | message detail
The only 2 that matter today are Bowser and Ryu, why should I care about shadow now?

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Eff Dee
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