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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 512

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/7/2007 7:31:34 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/7/2007 7:31:58 PM | message detail
Shadow deserves to be screwed over. Terrible character.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
ZFS | Posted 10/7/2007 7:34:33 PM | message detail
Hah, awesome. Great to see Cloud breaking 56% here. Ever the vote draw, too!

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let's mosey
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/7/2007 7:37:18 PM | message detail
Nobody got more screwed than Rikku. That was just a travesty.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 7:38:41 PM | message detail
THIS IS WHO I AM
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Auron/Shadow/Ryu/Bowser - Bracket: Auron > Ryu - Vote: Shadow (127/152)
lt4chi | Posted 10/7/2007 7:39:09 PM | message detail
Shadow deserves to be screwed over. Terrible character.

I doubt you know how well written and complex shadow's personality and backstory are to make an assumption like that.then again,you'd need to have played and beaten SA2,sonic battle,and to a lesser extent Shadow the Hedgehog to know that....so i don't blame you.but neglecting that shadow is by very far the most well conceived and creative character among the sonic cast is kinda hard when most others hardly even have anything behind them.

with that said,I still like Auron more,and seeing him dominating today will be great

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You l4ck h4tred
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/7/2007 8:00:03 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/7/2007 8:00:32 PM | message detail
you l4ck d1sc1plin3
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 108/144; Oracle - 21st
BDawg | Posted 10/7/2007 8:43:55 PM | message detail
Big time match coming up, stats topic shouldn't be buried. There will be plenty of time for that in the next few matches....ugh.
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Should I start running now?
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 8:44:49 PM | message detail
Can't wait for the first 15 minutes, then boredom for the rest.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Auron/Shadow/Ryu/Bowser - Bracket: Auron > Ryu - Vote: Shadow (127/152)
Gaddswell | Posted 10/7/2007 8:46:04 PM | message detail
Here's hoping it ends up closer than Alucard/Liquid/Ness and Duke/Ike/Gordon!
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Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/7/2007 8:46:07 PM | message detail
Nothing boring about seeing Ryu getting decimated imo.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2007 8:46:35 PM | message detail
Round 2- Division 2 Semifinal B

Previous Matches:


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2869
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2870

Characters Involved:

Auron

Auron hopes to ride the momentum from his round 1 domination to first place here.

Ryu

Ryu took advantage of an SFF crippling on Bowser last round to come in first. Can he repeat his impressive performance now that Bowser has nothing to hold him back?

Shadow the Hedgehog

Looking at the split between him and Auron, it didn't look too bad, but Pyramid Head is the character that actually showed us how weak Shadow was. That match really was a one horse race.

Bowser

He got screwed last round being stuck in a fourpack with a potentially midcarder Pokemon, and the fodder, but still Nintendo Toad.l

Predictions:

At first, Auron > Bowser seemed like a lock. Auron dominated his fourpack worse than most expected. Then Bowser's match came up, and he managed to fall below 30%. I had Ryu winning that match, but he went above and beyond what I expected. But was that a result of Mewtwo being strong or did Bowser really drop off from last year?

Actually, looking at last year's stats, Bowser and Ryu were pretty damn equal. This should be a good match on paper, but like other good matches on paper, it could turn out to be a complete snore fest. Nonetheless, this should be one of the closer round 2 matches, as it has the potential to be a 3 horse race, especially given how much KH characters disappointed.

TuRtLe's Prediction: Auron 29%, Bowser 27%, Ryu 25%, Shadow 19%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Auron > Bowser
TuRtLe's Vote: Ryu

TuRtLe
~~~
109/144 in the contest. Next pick: Cloud > Marcus Fenix
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
charmander6000 | Posted 10/7/2007 8:49:03 PM | message detail
As much as I want this match to be close the top two winners will probably be decided by the end of the hour.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 35: Cloud > Marcus Fenix Points: 103/144
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/7/2007 8:53:07 PM | message detail
Ocelot mounting a comeback with 2 updates left! >_>
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/7/2007 8:53:13 PM | message detail
The way this contest has been going.. I've got a REALLY bad feeling Ryu's gonna surprise all of us and take first somehow. Just the way the whole contest has been this year.
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SC2k7: 88/128, tied for 1364th
Today's Pick: Mega Man > Knux (whoops)
paraboxx | Posted 10/7/2007 8:56:53 PM | message detail
Time for something new from me. Not sure if I'll keep these up, but whatever.

paraboxx' Worthless Writeups: Auron/Shadow/Bowser/Ryu

Auron - Pretty much the only Square character not from FF7 to impress. Thanks to that, and thanks to a tad of LFF from Shadow bringing down Bowser, Auron looks to be the favorite here. But you never know.

Shadow - He looked the worst out of these four characters last round, and Sonic characters have looked a bit weak in general this year. So Shadow's probably coming in last this time. Which works for me. Never did like evil clones. (And Shadow's "deep, complex storyline" isn't going to sway me.)

Bowser - The match's other favorite, Bowser should be closer to full strength this time after suffering LFF from two characters before. If there's enough overlap between him and Shadow, though, he could still have trouble.

Ryu - The wild card. Ryu's fanbase is fairly large and probably pretty dedicated. The question is, will it be large (or dedicated) enough.

Analysis: I'm saying yes. Fighters have been doing pretty well in this format (depending on how strong you want to believe Akuma is), and Bowser has shown himself to be vulnerable to overlap several times now. Auron could ease his day vote somewhat as well, meaning Ryu may not have to build up too big a lead overnight to survive. Auron > Bowser is certainly possible - maybe even probable - but Auron > Ryu is what I'm going with here.

Prediction: Auron 33%, Ryu 26%, Bowser 24%, Shadow 17%

Note: No, I did not read the Analysis Crew's writeups before posting this. (This...may explain some things.)
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/7/2007 8:58:28 PM | message detail
KP Writeup!!!!!:

Auron>Ryu cause Bowser didn't do well in the "Favorite Mario character?" poll and fighting game characters are crazy in this kind of contest
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/7/2007 8:59:24 PM | message detail
ashe writeup

shadow > auron believe
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 9:00:16 PM | message detail
Auron 12.5%

1
Shadow the Hedgehog 12.5%

1
Ryu 37.5%

3
Bowser 37.5%

3
TOTAL VOTES 8

let's mosey
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Auron/Shadow/Ryu/Bowser - Bracket: Auron > Ryu - Vote: Shadow (127/152)
Gaddswell | Posted 10/7/2007 9:00:18 PM | message detail
Auron 43.75% 21
Shadow the Hedgehog 6.25% 3
Ryu 14.58% 7
Bowser 35.42% 17
TOTAL VOTES 48
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Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/7/2007 9:00:28 PM | message detail
Auron 44.19%

19
Shadow the Hedgehog 4.65%

2
Ryu 16.28%

7
Bowser 34.88%

15
TOTAL VOTES 43

>_<
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
entropyx | Posted 10/7/2007 9:00:48 PM | message detail
Auron 27.27% 3

Shadow the Hedgehog 9.09% 1

Ryu 36.36% 4

Bowser 27.27% 3

TOTAL VOTES 11


11th, my highest of the season!
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Philadelphia Eagles [1 - 3] ; Philadelphia Flyers [1 - 1 - 0] Points: 2
Philadelphia Phillies [89 - 73] ; ~**2007 NL East Champions!**~
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/7/2007 9:00:57 PM | message detail
Ryu is looking horrible.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
paraboxx | Posted 10/7/2007 9:01:20 PM | message detail
Auron>Ryu cause Bowser didn't do well in the "Favorite Mario character?" poll and fighting game characters are crazy in this kind of contest

Yeah...I probably should've done that too.
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/7/2007 9:01:40 PM | message detail
Considering Bowser should be getting both the board vote and BRACKETS, Ryu's looking pretty good.
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2007 9:01:54 PM | message detail
Relatively close race for first/second

lol shadow

TuRtLe
~~~
115/152 in the contest. Next pick: Cloud > Marcus Fenix
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 9:01:55 PM | message detail
Actually, Bowser is the bracket favorite so he's looking horrible NOW GO FORTH RYU
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Auron/Shadow/Ryu/Bowser - Bracket: Auron > Ryu - Vote: Shadow (127/152)
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/7/2007 9:02:05 PM | message detail
Ryu catching up!
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/7/2007 9:02:15 PM | message detail
Ryu is looking great.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/7/2007 9:02:29 PM | message detail
And I just noticed how Shadow is doing

JUSTICE
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/7/2007 9:02:35 PM | message detail
Is this all Bowser can do with the Nintendo Power Hour. Auron is dominating (Duh) but bowser is struggling to fend off Ryu.

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Hochiminh155's Trail to Failure
swirldude has exposed me as a prediction fraud.
RockMFR 5 | Posted 10/7/2007 9:02:41 PM | message detail
Bowser XD
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Save the cheerleader, save the world. o_0
The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n.
transience | Posted 10/7/2007 9:03:16 PM | message detail
this is like an exact repeat of the last round. I'd rather have Ryu than Bowser right now.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 9:03:55 PM | message detail
Ryu can't get within 10 votes augh augh
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Auron/Shadow/Ryu/Bowser - Bracket: Auron > Ryu - Vote: Shadow (127/152)
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/7/2007 9:04:09 PM | message detail
Same. I'd be plenty happy if I had Ryu.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2007 9:04:33 PM | message detail
As someone who had Ryu in first last round, him winning by that much really put the fear into my bracket.

Hopefully Bowser can use Street Fighter's brutal day vote to keep this one.

TuRtLe
~~~
115/152 in the contest. Next pick: Cloud > Marcus Fenix
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/7/2007 9:04:59 PM | message detail
Dropped off a bit.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/7/2007 9:05:41 PM | message detail
THIS IS CRAZY AS HELL

AURON WITH 33%?
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Masa/Hiko/HeroicTronBonne/Cory/Buddha
Gaddswell | Posted 10/7/2007 9:05:49 PM | message detail
Freeze:

Auron 33.9% 575
Shadow the Hedgehog 13.09% 222
Ryu 25.94% 440
Bowser 27.06% 459
TOTAL VOTES 1696

Ryu/Bowser is going to be interesting.
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Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 9:05:53 PM | message detail
ha ha oh wow @ Marcus's prediction percentage

And Ryu keeping it close already. Things are looking good.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Auron/Shadow/Ryu/Bowser - Bracket: Auron > Ryu - Vote: Shadow (127/152)
ZFS | Posted 10/7/2007 9:05:58 PM | message detail
Auron domination. I'm liking it!

Ryu's in a good position right now, I think. He's not Bowser get beyond that 20 vote lead. I wouldn't be surprised if it's all him from here in a few updates.

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let's mosey
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2007 9:06:10 PM | message detail
So, Bowser should lead for the rest of the NPH, but Ryu should take the lead overnight. Bowser will have to rely on the legendary SF day vote here.

TuRtLe
~~~
115/152 in the contest. Next pick: Cloud > Marcus Fenix
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/7/2007 9:06:19 PM | message detail
Wow, Auron is kicking ass! Oh, and lol Shadow

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Hochiminh155's Trail to Failure
swirldude has exposed me as a prediction fraud.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2007 9:06:49 PM | message detail
Auron having 33% is more a result of Shadow sucking like ass more than anything

TuRtLe
~~~
115/152 in the contest. Next pick: Cloud > Marcus Fenix
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/7/2007 9:07:10 PM | message detail
Cloud Strife 44.53% / 47.09%
Marcus Fenix 7.38% / 16.15%

This is so pathetic in so many ways.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
paraboxx | Posted 10/7/2007 9:07:27 PM | message detail
Bowser's part of the Nintendo Power Hour too, right?

If so, things aren't looking too good early.

Also, lol Shadow. I actually hope he does better during the day...but mostly so he sucks away as much of Bowser's day vote as possible.

Go Ryu!
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/7/2007 9:07:32 PM | message detail
Lowest Prediction Percentage (Advancing):

01. 23.53% Marcus in Cloud vs Marcus vs Ocelot vs Kefka (Round 2)
02. 29.51% Scorpion in Samus vs Scorpion vs Frog vs Midna (Round 2)
03. 30.09% KOS-MOS in Mega Man vs KOS-MOS vs Diablo vs Arthas (Round 1)
04. 32.77% L-Block in Kirby vs L-Block vs Laharl vs Nathan (Round 1)
05. 33.24% HK-47 in Zero vs HK-47 vs Lloyd vs Jak (Round 1)
06. 33.79% Big Boss in Mario vs Big Boss vs Pac-Man vs Wander (Round 1)
07. 34.50% Mudkip in Luigi vs Mudkip vs Pit vs Tingle (Round 1)
08. 34.56% Bidoof in Link vs Bidoof vs Edgeworth vs Agent J (Round 1)
09. 37.99% Vergil in Ganondorf vs Vergil vs Thrall vs Ratchet (Round 1)
10. 38.02% Meta-Knight in Sephiroth vs Meta-Knight vs Peach vs CATS (Round 1)

And here I thought XBox characters usually had a good prediction percentage...guess even they pale before the might of Kefka.
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
Tediz247 | Posted 10/7/2007 9:07:44 PM | message detail
Well, Auron's definitely advancing next round. Cloud won't sff him that much, and it looks like neither Bowser nor Ryu is getting close to him here. I had such hopes that I would place this contest too.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/7/2007 9:08:00 PM | message detail
auron advancing next round book it
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
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