GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 512
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/7/2007 3:56:13 PM | message detail |
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Aw yeah go colts *Creativename's websites* Everything you could ever imagine: http://www.GameFAQsContests.com http://www.sc2k5.com http://www.sc2k4.com Sortable Table for Every Contest Match: http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19 *Extrapolated Standings* Explanation of Extrapolated Standings: http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11 Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings: A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left): http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/ *Solarshadow's Sites* Summer 2002 Contest: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com Summer 2003 Contest: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating) http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html *Old Stats topics* Summer 2002 Contest: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html Summer 2003 Contest: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note) 2003-2004 Off-Season: http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note) Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL. Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them): http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them): http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm *Match Pictures* All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones! http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php *Miscellaneous* Creativename's Page of Links: http://sc2k4.com/links.php UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language): http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language): http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches: http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm All Time Top 10 Lists: http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2002stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2003stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2004stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2004stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2005stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2005stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/july2006stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2006stats.htm RPguy's Hourly Poll Updates: www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/contest.html HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 TRE's poll listing (every poll!): http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html Aprosenf's Poll Script: http://adamrose.mit.edu/allpolls.txt GameFAQs' Top 100 Games http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/top10 Manual Poll Updater: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php ~*ST*~ |
| DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/7/2007 3:56:55 PM | message detail |
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lol Bucs --- SC2k7: 88/128, tied for 1364th Today's Pick: Mega Man > Knux (whoops) |
| jonthomson | Posted 10/7/2007 4:01:37 PM | message detail |
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Indians > Yankees --- Jon Thomson - 97/144, next picks: Cloud beats Marcus Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975 |
| Keno316 | Posted 10/7/2007 4:31:37 PM | message detail |
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*sigh* Vaya con Dios Joe Torre.... --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/7/2007 4:32:28 PM | message detail |
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tag --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar |
| paraboxx | Posted 10/7/2007 4:35:23 PM | message detail |
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Didn't one of the pregame show people say that if the Bucs did well in
the first quarter, they could potentially control the whole game? So much for that theory. Meanwhile, Fenix sure has gained a lot against Ocelot in the last...well, basically ever since I said he would stop gaining. *tears up bracket, despite never making one* |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/7/2007 4:37:41 PM | message detail |
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That's the point I was trying to make. It seems every time we get a
match with the near-elites, it winds up happening exactly as it was
supposed to despite the possibilty of crazy antics. See Vincent/Ganondorf Ganondorf was the favorite in that much. How did it go exactly as expected? --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| ZFS | Posted 10/7/2007 4:38:00 PM | message detail |
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Highlight o' the day -- NE moving on to 5 - 0! Fenix needs to keep it around this area for a couple more hours before he's "safe," I think. --- let's mosey |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 10/7/2007 4:38:57 PM | message detail |
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Cloud looks to get 56%. I wonder what Link gets when his match comes. --- Hochiminh155's Trail to Failure swirldude has exposed me as a prediction fraud. |
| Pondos | Posted 10/7/2007 4:39:28 PM | message detail |
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*tag* --- Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it is too dark to read. -Groucho Marx |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 10/7/2007 4:39:48 PM | message detail |
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Highlight o' the day -- NE moving on to 5 - 0! Are you talking about the NE cheatriots? They are the laughingstock of the nation. I wonder how the cheated today. --- Hochiminh155's Trail to Failure swirldude has exposed me as a prediction fraud. |
| Keno316 | Posted 10/7/2007 4:51:42 PM | message detail |
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Highlight o' the day -- NE moving on to 5 - 0! You used to be cool, man. --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| Gaddswell | Posted 10/7/2007 4:58:22 PM | message detail |
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Ocelot with a 9% update. --- Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__ |
| BesaidGuy | Posted 10/7/2007 4:58:50 PM | message detail |
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Pats are going to lose to the Colts in what will turn out to be one of the greatest Regular Season games of all time. AWW YEAH ULTI! YOU LOVE ME Also, I am banking on Link getting 60% --- FuturamandFFX/TheRealoSix AndyManCan's favorite user |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/7/2007 5:00:47 PM | message detail |
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Mac, he said as it was supposed to, which it did based on X-stats.
Predictions of Ganondorf randomly becoming God don't change that it
turned out as the year before predicted. --- Watch out, 'cause now I'm back! ...I'm still Warsola/War13104. I repeat, I'm not ExTha. I'm as much ExTha as the above poster. |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 10/7/2007 5:02:09 PM | message detail |
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Every year, people think Ganondorf is some god and choose him to go far. I'll never understand this. --- Hochiminh155's Trail to Failure swirldude has exposed me as a prediction fraud. |
| Keno316 | Posted 10/7/2007 5:03:43 PM | message detail |
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Every year, people think Ganondorf is some god and choose him to go far. I'll never understand this. Zant, is that you? --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| Lugia2 | Posted 10/7/2007 5:10:05 PM | message detail |
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Every year, people think Ganondorf is some god and choose him to go far. I'll never understand this. Spring 2005 Contest, alt. How long has your real account been on this board if you don't know that? --- VIVA LA REVOLU-er, Wii!! Thank you Nintendo, thank you very much. Lugia2-1246-5250-1185 |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 10/7/2007 5:11:08 PM | message detail |
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Spring 2005 contest? you mean people were surprised to see him make it to the finals with tough compeition like DR. ROBOTNIK and ANSEM --- Hochiminh155's Trail to Failure swirldude has exposed me as a prediction fraud. |
| Seginustemple | Posted 10/7/2007 5:15:13 PM | message detail |
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Spring 2005 contest? you mean people were surprised to see him make
it to the finals with tough compeition like DR. ROBOTNIK and ANSEM The dude pulled 40% on Sephiroth. That's not shabby. And that's pre-Twilight Princess. --- If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 5:16:02 PM | message detail |
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bububububut 41% on SEPHIROTH Clearly he was the logical choice to win SC2K5 and 6. --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Marcus/Kefka/Cloud/Ocelot - Bracket: Cloud > Marcus - Vote: Ocelot (119/144) |
| Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/7/2007 5:16:26 PM | message detail |
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I am very surprised Marcus has been able to come back and take second...Gears of War is somewhat of a force after all. --- Masa/Hiko/HeroicTronBonne/Cory/Buddha |
| MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/7/2007 5:16:29 PM | message detail |
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The dude pulled 40% on Sephiroth. That's not shabby. And that's pre-Twilight Princess. So did Bowser. I thought it was generally agreed they both overperformed up the wazoo since everyone knew Sephiroth was winning? --- Demyx is better than Axel. |
| Seginustemple | Posted 10/7/2007 5:18:25 PM | message detail |
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I thought it was generally agreed they both overperformed up the wazoo since everyone knew Sephiroth was winning? wate wut --- If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula |
| hochiminh155 | Posted 10/7/2007 5:18:29 PM | message detail |
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1. Bowser got 40% on Seph too. Now Bowser is becoming a joke in these contests 2. twilight Princess has done jack-**** --- Hochiminh155's Trail to Failure swirldude has exposed me as a prediction fraud. |
| Seginustemple | Posted 10/7/2007 5:23:43 PM | message detail |
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Bowser is not Ganondorf. Twilight Princess means Ganon stays current, if nothing else. --- If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/7/2007 5:29:52 PM | message detail |
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Mac, he said as it was supposed to, which it did based on X-stats.
Predictions of Ganondorf randomly becoming God don't change that it
turned out as the year before predicted. Heh, Ganondorf was supposed to become God after Ganon vs. Vincent. He was supposed to win that match because he was behind Samus and Mario and Vincent got AC right before Vincent/Crono and everyone hated DoC. If you look at the stats, Ganon 2k6 and Vincent 2k5 are basically equals, so it wasn't too farfetched. --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| shadow8021 | Posted 10/7/2007 5:42:09 PM | message detail |
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Marcus Fenix 15.54% 20404 Kefka 13.37% 17559 Cloud Strife 55.93% 73434 Revolver Ocelot 15.16% 19908 TOTAL VOTES 131305 lol Kefka's percent... --- Character Battle Score: 114/144 Today's Pick: Cloud Strife > Marcus Fenix |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/7/2007 5:44:05 PM | message detail |
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Mac, did you buy into HM that much? --- Watch out, 'cause now I'm back! ...I'm still Warsola/War13104. I repeat, I'm not ExTha. I'm as much ExTha as the above poster. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2007 5:44:48 PM | message detail |
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Ganon 2k6 = Ganon 2k5 Vincent 2k6 = Vincent 2k5 IBCriticism TuRtLe ~~~ 109/144 in the contest. Next pick: Cloud > Marcus Fenix BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/7/2007 5:56:31 PM | message detail |
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Mac, did you buy into HM that much? Again, there's nothing crazy about Ganon > Vincent. It was a popular pick inside of the stats topic and out. The craziness only came around after that. I actually had Ganon > Male Bracket before HM did. Oh, for the days when TP was expected to be bigger than OoT. :p --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| BDawg | Posted 10/7/2007 6:18:04 PM | message detail |
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Heh, I was starting to doubt Marcus' stallish comeback around noon but
it paid off in the end. And does Cloud's number really matter, I didn't
think so? I thought the only Cloud>Link hope was SFF, not some
inexplicable BOOST. --- Should I start running now? |
| ZFS | Posted 10/7/2007 6:21:11 PM | message detail |
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You think wrong, my friend. Believe in the delayed KH2 boost --- let's mosey |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/7/2007 6:22:30 PM | message detail |
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Question: how do ya'll feel about Fenix's performance today? I mean,
good job that he won and he certainly wasn't guaranteed to win last
round or advance in this one...but as somebody who had Kefka > Fenix
and Cloud > Fenix, I expected more after seeing last round. He did
impress against Kefka and he's supposed to have the most independent
fanbase here, not to mention Gears of War being huge since last year
and Halo 3 supposedly bringing in more 360-traffic. Maybe I just expected too much, but I figured Fenix had enough factors on his side to match what Revolver had last round and take second easier than this. Fenix will have fun next round, ha...replace Kefka with Auron and Revolver with Bowser (assuming those two win), and I doubt he breaks 10%. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| BDawg | Posted 10/7/2007 6:29:13 PM | message detail |
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I think a lot of characters who dominated weak sauce packs are gonna come down to earth when they run into real contest muscle. --- Should I start running now? |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/7/2007 6:30:16 PM | message detail |
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No, Cloud still broke 46% on Link last year on the day before TP and
the Wii came out- a decent sized boost would make him strong enough to
beat Link outright, with no need for SFF. Of course, if that doesn't
happen Sonic would have to leech off of Link quite a bit because more
of Snake's votes went to Cloud last year than Link. --- Character Battle VI -- Points: 91/128 -- T-757 (156 way) Bracket: Megaman > KOS-MOS -- Vote: Megaman |
| Who Cares? | Posted 10/7/2007 6:33:12 PM | message detail |
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Maybe I just expected too much, but I figured Fenix had enough
factors on his side to match what Revolver had last round and take
second easier than this. While I won't discredit his comeback in the 1st round against Kefka...he needed the ASV to finally pull ahead of Kefka. All that told me is that he has an awesome day vote. He did enough in that match to become the favorite for today, but that's about it. --- Current Points: 107 Maximum Possible Points: 731/768 |
| swirIdude | Posted 10/7/2007 6:51:10 PM | message detail |
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Hopefully Bowser can advance tomorrow, otherwise there could be a long
chain of the 1st place character in every Round 1 match advancing,
which makes the 4-man format kind of pointless <_< --- http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe |
| sillybulanston | Posted 10/7/2007 6:55:04 PM | message detail |
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Happy 3000 Karma Day to Who Cares? (In case I forget for tomorrow) --- Spring Contest 2005 - Final Score - 77/80 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/7/2007 7:04:40 PM | message detail |
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Nah, you still gotta get the order of the first-place people right at least. I like this format. Now...that said, I can't see Bowser taking first. I've been arguing this for two months, but Bowser's going up against nothing but fan-favorites -- practically everybody he faces in his road is the clear favorite in their respective series except for him (even Toad if you think about Mario Kart). So I would think Bowser would have some minor loyalty problems...then throw in that last year said Auron is a decent bit above Bowser. Ryu is supposed to have comparable strength with Bowser too, so if 2k5 was a fluke then Bowser's going to get to fend him off too. If Shadow can impress at Mario characters' expenses like he did in 2k3, then that's all the worse for Bowser... ...lots of theories, lots of stuff people (including myself on some) would disagree with, lots of evidence people feel wouldn't repeat, whatever...but with all that considered, I would be VERY impressed with Bowser if he managed to win this tomorrow. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| transience | Posted 10/7/2007 7:08:07 PM | message detail |
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tomorrow is a fairly huge match if you ask me. there's so much that can
be said for each of these guys, and it's time to see if a well-known
and liked but not particularly loved character can compete. --- ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD ZFStix: kill it |
| Panthera | Posted 10/7/2007 7:09:51 PM | message detail |
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Auron is human, Ryu is human, Shadow isn't but he's humanoid, Bowser is
not. Clearly, he has the non-humanoid vote, while the other three get
burned by AFF [Anthropological Fanbase Factor] issues. --- You think, therefore I am |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/7/2007 7:17:58 PM | message detail |
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Match XXXVI: Auron vs Shadow vs Ryu vs Bowser Past Matches Round 1 Auron - 43.26% Shadow - 26.26% Pyramid Head - 16.18% Chris Redfield - 14.30% Ryu - 36.30% Bowser - 28.62% Mewtwo - 24.95% Toad - 10.14% Analysis While Auron’s performance last round was impressive at first if you take a second look at it you’ll notice that Auron got about what he was expected to get against Shadow. People probably thought he was impressive because of the talk of Shadow being somewhere between his 2k4 and 2k3 value. Ryu was able to sneak the upset against Bowser, but this match Bowser doesn’t have to worry about having two other Nintendo characters with him. This match is the only match in this half of the bracket to not include a Noble Nine character and this match is the most hyped match of the round with three characters being able to take it in any order. This match is also the most stacked match of the round, where I’d probably take the weakest character in this four-pack to come in second in some of the other matches this round. Auron is the favorite to take first in this match. He was already ranked to be stronger than all of the other characters in this poll and his performance last round shows that his strength is true. Either way I find it hard to believe that Auron would fail to at least place in this match. Ryu’s performance last round was great, the people who supported him were only expecting him to win in a close match, but he was able to run away with the match and has put himself in a good position to place in this match. Last year Ryu was able to rebound and finished about half a percent away from Bowser so all he has to hope for is that last round’s voters of Toad and Mewtwo don’t overwhelmingly favor Bowser in this match. Out of the three that can place it’s Bowser who needs to do some work in this match. Last round Ryu was able to easily beat him while Mewtwo able to keep close to him. Bowser probably lost most of his support from Toad and while I wouldn’t say 100% of Toad’s votes are going to Bowser I’m pretty sure the number will be high. Even if we use Cloud/Sephiroth’s 70% that already puts Bowser almost on par with Ryu. As for Mewtwo this contest has shown that Pokemon don’t seem to get SFF in this contest, but the average Mewtwo voter may vote for Bowser over Ryu, but I wouldn’t give Bowser that big of a majority. Shadow will come in last; he isn’t the same character we saw back in 2k3. Shadow could have done well if he was in a different match and quickly looking through the matches I’d take him to go to the next round in five or six matches and I wouldn’t take him to come in last in any of the matches either. Well that’s how things go maybe he’ll do better next year. Auron over Bowser is the most likely scenario to happen, but like I said any combination between the three could happen. I personally have Bowser over Auron and despite both of them having a common opponent last year I still have faith in Bowser. charmander6000’s Bracket: Bowser over Auron charmander6000’s Prediction: Bowser - 28.53%, Auron - 28.27%, Ryu - 24.27%, Shadow - 18.93% --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Match 35: Cloud > Marcus Fenix Points: 103/144 |
| Keno316 | Posted 10/7/2007 7:25:07 PM | message detail |
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And Cloud cracks 56%! That'll do, Water Vapor. That'll do. --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 7:27:50 PM | message detail |
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Division 2: Round 2 - Match 36 – Auron vs. Shadow vs. Ryu vs. Bowser Moltar’s Analysis Auron Round 1 – 43.26% vs. Shadow, Pyramid Head, Chris Showed no mercy against his competition. Shadow Round 1 – 26.28% vs. Auron, Pyramid Head, Chris Poor Shadow =( Ryu Round 1 – 36.30% vs. Bowser, Mewtwo and Toad Still thanks Mewtwo and Toad Bowser Round 1 – 28.62% vs. Ryu, Mewtwo and Toad Still blames Mewtwo and Toad. HYPEHYPEHYPEHYPEHYPE Yes, raising the hype level for this match. It was one of the most debated matches of Round 2 before the Contest, and Round 1 didn’t make things too much easier. Okay, well, it kind of did. Shadow doesn’t stand a chance of advancing. Thanks to Sonic looking bad in general, and his embarassing performance last round, he’s looking to take fourth easily. You’re still getting my vote though! The top three, however, is just one big cluster****. Any combination of the three can take 1 and 2, so from here on out it’s pretty much just guessing. First up, there’s Auron. In my mind, he’s the most likely to take first. Not only is he stronger than all these other guys one-on-one, but I still think this format is just what he needs. Last round he looked very good, and it’s not like there are any other characters here who will weaken him significantly. Second is a brawl between Ryu and Bowser. We saw what happened last round, where most claim that the reason Ryu beat out Bowser was because of Mewtwo and Toad being in the poll. Well, because of that, I’m expecting Bowser to hold up really well, but Ryu’s got the fighting spirit in him! I don’t expect to see him go down easily, especially with the way fighters have performed against tough competition. It should be close no matter which way it goes, but I’m sticking to my bracket here. Auron and Ryu looked the best last round, and I’m hoping they’ll both pull through here. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Auron > Ryu Moltar’s Prediction is: Auron: 31% - Ryu: 28% - Bowser: 27% - Shadow: 14% Ultimaterializer’s Analysis Bowser was rSFFd into second place in the first round by the presence of two other Nintendo characters in his match, but with no Nintendo characters to compete with here he should be safe. Auron *should* take first and Bowser second, but I don't want to call anything obvious given my curse in these things. And I'm kind of upset with both Ryu and Bowser for screwing Mewtwo over, so... meh. At least Shadow comes in last like he deserves. Bastard. Ulti's Prediction: Auron [33.00%] Bowser [27.00%] Ryu [25.00%] Shadow [15.00%] Heroic Mario’s Analysis Best match of round 2? aww yeah Last round gave us an idea of what we need to expect in this match -- a battle for second between Bowser and Ryu. After Shadow being closer to Pyramid Head than to Auron, and with Sonic characters -- even the main hedgehog himself -- underperforming expectations, it’s safe to say that Shadow is pretty much a non-factor here. First place, I think, will clearly go to Auron. He’s a step ahead of the other guys here and he came out looking good last round. I’d be surprised if he struggled all that much here. He isn’t going to blow them out by any means, but at the same time, he’s not going to need to worry about not advancing, or even not winning. Who takes second, on the other hand, is up in the air. Ryu put a beating on Bowser last round, but that was obviously due to SFF. What’s tough to decide is how many of those Mewtwo and Toad votes are going to go to Bowser. If he takes the lion’s share of them, it’s probably a solid victory for him here, but I dunno. There’s something about Bowser that seems a bit off for whatever reason. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 7:28:05 PM | message detail |
| Odds are, Bowser’s going to end up winning this,
but I’m going to risk it with Ryu. The fighting game fanbase has proven
its worth time and again here, and Mario characters haven’t exactly
came out and impressed, minus Yoshi. Probably not the best bet, but
HADOKEN it is. Auron – 34% Ryu – 28% Bowser – 27% Shadow – 11% Bracket: Auron > Bowser Vote: Auron Yoblazer’s Analysis Ah, we've reached our best Round 2 match yet. Unlike the previous three, which featured one power player and several midcarders/weaklings battling it out for the scraps, this one features a relatively even distribution of some impressive power. Also unlike many other matches, I feel this one is good enough and the entrants strong enough to each warrant their own detailed analysis, and that's something I don't usually do. I feel that we'll be treated to a little bit of everything today, so without further yapping from yours truly, let's jump in. First on the list is Auron, the fan-favorite badass from Final Fantasy X and the bracket maker favorite in the match. Auron earned his reputation as the odds-on favorite by virtue of his excellent 2006 results, and he proved to be all too deserving in his first match this year. In said match, he spanked his competition (including Shadow, who some people thought would keep it relatively close) to nigh-Noble 9 levels. Of his three opponents, only Ryu has an outside shot at stealing some support via rSFF or the newfangled LFF or whatever you guys are calling it. However, I sincerely doubt this will happen, and actually think the opposite is much more likely, so Auron is looking golden en route to another first place win. Auron's two main competitors are the tough guys who managed an awful lot of controversy last round, Street Fighter's Ryu and Super Mario's Bowser. Their opening match was expected to be a close one, and I believe Bowser was a slight favorite, but Ryu shocked everyone and went on to claim first place by nearly 8%. The panic alarms sounded for the Koopa King, as he was called everything from overrated, to an SFF disgrace, to a sitting duck in Round 2. However, is it really all true? Could Bowser really have dropped from the overwhelming favorite to a significant underdog based on one match? Maybe so, but I'm not buying it. Not at all. In the first round, Ryu was the lucky beneficiary of a three-way fanbase split. I know that hindsight is 20/20 and that his performance was a great one even with the split, but I think people are overestimating him here. To see what I mean, put someone like Luigi in a match with Squall, Aeris, and Kefka and see how well he does. I firmly believe that Bowser will be a much more potent force in this match, as the little buggers who were holding him down (Mewtwo especially) are gone. Conversely, Ryu now has to face Bowser on much more even ground, and Auron also looms in the distance. No, I'm not claiming that Auron's presence in the match will significantly hinder Ryu, but I do believe he can hurt Ryu a bit more than Bowser due to the very nature of both characters' similar appeal. Of course, Bowser is also at a bit of a handicap due to the presence of Shadow the Hedgehog, who many speculate is from a series that's about two steps away from the gate to Nintendoland. While Shadow's presence had me worry for Bowser before, the Sonic team has, by and large, stunk up this contest more than any other big series. Knuckles got spanked by Yoshi twice in a row, Tails lost to The Boss, and Sonic looked unworthy of the title "Noble 9er" against Sub-Zero. Either the series has lost a step since last year, Sonic characters underperform when a Nintendo character is in the same poll, or Sonic characters just suck in this format. Either way, things are looking ugly for Shadow, and I think he'll answer the ugly call by giving us an equally ugly performance. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 7:28:51 PM | message detail |
| In fact, and I think this opinion might get
challenged by anyone actually reading this, but I'm not so sure if
Shadow is even a bigger liability for Bowser than Auron is for Ryu. Ryu
has the infamous and well earned moniker of "Mr. Consistency" in that
he never, ever gets blown out, but those performances are usually
against characters who are his polar opposite. His last match against a
guy with a similar design and appeal was against Solid Snake in 2003.
While that was another fine Ryu performance, it's been four years, and
I speculate just how well he can hold up against a guy like Auron here
and now. Auron wins it, Bowser in second, Ryu close behind in third,
and Shadow stinks it up in last. Auron - 30% Bowser - 28% Ryu - 26% Shadow - 16% Lopen’s Analysis Ah. Seems like ol' Classic look has his work much more cut out for him this time. Without Mewtwo and Toad to hold Bowser's arms, how will Ryu kick the crap out of him undisturbed? How will he obtain the perfect victory in this fight? Well, it won't be quite so undisturbed this time. Ryu will have to fight. But he has the fighter's spirit, here. And in this contest, the fighter's spirit amounts to never falling below 40% in a 1v1 match. Possibly because he's never fought a strong enough opponent, but he's gone up against 4 NNers. Do I think his fanbase is dedicated? Absolutely. And in this contest, I think that helps a lot. Looking at round 1, it's looking good for him. Even without the Nintendo split I take Ryu to win in that match, just not nearly as decisively. People preaching things like 70-80% overlap are offa their gourds... even in Toad's case, I think. Hell, I'm proof that Ryu got hurt by it too... my voting hierarchy in that match was Toad > Mewtwo > Ryu > Bowser! He's got my vote this round, though! Seeing how poorly Shadow did, how he let a Pyramid and random RE guy escape the doubling from him, I don't think he's much of a threat. However, it doesn't just speak for him, but Auron. Auron only got 40% on that four pack. Surely, this is great, you say. Breaking 40% on a four pack with Shadow in it, that's impressive! This man can't be beat! Well you know what, I am not very convinced. Shadow was looking pretty weak with his 26%, you ask me. So what, Auron's up against two pansies and a weaker looking Shadow and he gets but 43%? Give me Ryu's performance perhaps more impressive, even with the Nintendo overlap. So my bracket has Auron > Ryu. I'm tempted to say Ryu > Auron right now. I think I'll stick with my bracket, but I have no idea. I don't think Bowser has much of a chance, though... unless Ryu > Bowser > Auron is how it crumbles, I suppose. Lopen's prediction: Auron - 30.75% Ryu - 30.00% Bowser - 25.25% Akuba the Hedgehog - 14.00% Karma Hunter’s Analysis Auron One of the strongest Square powerhouses, combining the best of FFX and KH, continues his run through the bracket. The consensus favorite to come in first here. Shadow the Hedgehog After his long hiatus, Shadow both hints at the weakness of Sonic characters here and shows his own brand of suckitude - losing updates to Pyramid Head? The longest shot here by... well, a longshot. Ryu Powering through last round, Ryu hints at both the relative strength of fighting game characters in this format and his own dedicated fanbase. How impressive will he be today? Bowser Heh. The once favorite to progress last round, that was before the devastating effect of SFF could be fully appreciated in this format. Being doubly drained, can Bowser bounce back here? |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 7:29:13 PM | message detail |
| This match could go a lot of ways, but I'm content
to stick with the cookie on this one. I can't see anyone challenging
Auron's dominance here. He met and surpassed expectations for most,
dominating his fourpack while Shadow faltered immensely. And while
Ryu's fourpack was undoubtedly stronger, when three of your opponents
draw from the same fanbase you're bound to look good. If there's any
chink in Auron's armor, it's his picture today, and it would be hard to
see him not placing if you didn't give him a picture at all. Shadow remains the least likely to progress. Once a sexy upset pick, much conventional wisdom has been defied. The Sonic fanbase is not as hardcore as many would think and seems to falter in this format, Knuckles looks to have been overrated in 2k5, and the last time we saw the hedgehog he lost to Tidus. He looks the best out of anyone here, but he dominated the picture that much more last round only to lose updates to - well, you get the point. That leaves Ryu and Bowser fighting it out for second - what a coincidence. Bowser's chances are much better this time around without him being drained, and the sole Nintendo representative never hurts anyone. But it doesn't necessarily give you the win, Ness proved, and Bowser's lack of a hardcore fanbase seems to be hurting him (and was hinted in the favorite Mario polls, to boot). But he is almost assured to be naturally stronger than the Street Fighter, and I feel confident in him progressing. Having a hardcore fanbase isn't as important as having a fanbase dedicated to your company - and while Bowser isn't a big FAVORITE among his fanbase, people do CARE about him. Whereas no one cares about Ness outside of EB fans. *this writeup may have been influenced by Ryu getting the only bad picture I've ever seen of him in his contest career Karma Hunter's Vote: Auron. NOW IS THE TIME TO VOTE! Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Auron with 30%, Bowser with 26%, Ryu with 25%, Shadow the Hedgehog with 19% Upset Probability: 80% upsets upsets everywhere, and not a drop to drink Auron > Ryu is the most likely one, look at that Street Fighter go! I could even see Ryu > Auron, much more easily than Bowser > Auron. Shadow upsetting Bowser wouldn't be *terribly* surprising, though certainly depressing. I could talk about this all day, but I have a string of disappointing writeups to uphold! Transience’s Analysis now *this* is a match. four guys who all had a shot pre-contest to place, though our Nintendo and Square fear left a lot of people picking Auron and Bowser. Shadow looks to be a lock for fourth, but the other three could finish in any order and it wouldn't be that weird. Auron Auron seems like a lock to place. he rocked Shadow's world in round 1, has all that fan-favourite appeal that makes him a beast in this format and has nothing holding him back. well, except for that picture. what IS that? eh, it won't matter. Bowser one of the bigger disappointments in round 1, even though you can make excuses for him. two other Nintendo guys, one from his own series, slowed him down.. but he lost several updates to Mewtwo. seeing two N characters leeching from Bowser wasn't unexpected, but watching him lose percentage with the afterschool vote was depressing. Bowser has the ability to make a comeback here, but with how fighting game have been impressing.. Ryu one of the stars of round 1, Ryu rocked the guy who beat him 59-41 just two years prior. with fighting game characters impressing left and right, can Ryu place here.. or even take first place? this threesome can go in any order - three separated, sizable fanbases with characters that aren't all that far away strength-wise. Ryu has to hope that his fanbase will stick with him here, but after Sub-Zero did so awesome vs. Sonic and Scorpion rocked Frog, does he even have to worry? |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 7:30:05 PM | message detail |
|
Shadow lol well, let's start with first place. I like Auron -- Shadow may be weak or flops in this format or whatever, but Auron beating him *that* hard plus his loyal fanbase tells me something. Auron nearly avoided SFF from Sephiroth and came within 2% of Bowser on Cloud in 2003. that tells me he's good the goods for this match. second place? I had both of these guys to round 4 for equal parts of the bracketmaking period, but ended up siding with Bowser because I felt his Nintendo roots would carry him through. I'm sticking with that -- Ryu's impressing more than ever, his fanbase is a bit more devoted than Bowser's, but Bowser's the stronger of the two. he's disappointed ever since that crazy 2005 where he did better than Mario on Sephiroth and came within inches of breaking the noble nine, but I think he'll be able to hang on here. I won't be surprised at all if he ends up third though.. or first. oh, and go Ryu! I guess I should address the picture quick -- he's recognizable, even if he looks kind of bad. I don't think it matters. Auron's picture worries me more, honestly. Auron's picture -- what? Bowser's not getting leeched dry Ryu won't repeat transience's prediction: Auron with 31.25%, Bowser with 28.79%, Ryu with 28.01%, Shadow with 11.95% Crew Consensus: In a 4-3 split, the Crew favors Auron > Bowser over Auron > Ryu. |
| lt4chi | Posted 10/7/2007 7:30:26 PM | message detail |
|
Shadow got screwed here..as did lots of other midcarders.we still have
fodder advancing (mainly in the bottom half),while peope like
Shadow,Mewtwo,Knuckles,etc get eliminated in first or second round.why
not use the first 2 rounds to eliminate the fodder? --- You l4ck h4tred |
