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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 511

ZFS | Posted 10/7/2007 1:11:14 PM | message detail
also zero will beat vincent and crono by 5%

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let's mosey
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/7/2007 1:14:23 PM | message detail
That Cloud fella is some vote draw I'll tell ya.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 108/144; Oracle - 21st
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/7/2007 1:16:06 PM | message detail
I've come to the conlcusion that Cloud is pretty good with the day vote. We've only really seen him against Link the past 3 years so we assume he's bad but he's beating Marcus Fenixbox's day vote.

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Hochiminh155's Trail to Failure
swirldude has exposed me as a prediction fraud.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/7/2007 1:17:15 PM | message detail
Just for fun, Rikku had 42,830 votes in her one match at the beginning of the contest (the most of anybody eliminated in the first round) while tangling with Vaan (if you don't dig the LFF theory)...and there are several characters who made it into the second round and could still potentially have been voted for less than that in the two rounds they've been in combined. KOS-MOS avoided it by about 300 votes, so let's see who else might be in real danger of falling into this:

Meta Knight (24,453 + what he gets against Seph/Fox/Wario)
Wario (26,937 + what he gets against Seph/MK/Fox)
Bidoof (23,419 + what he gets against Link/Zelda/Vincent)

Those three seem to be in the biggest danger of it, though there are some honorable mentions like HK-47 or Vergil. Just goes to show that Rikku got really ****ed.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/7/2007 1:17:20 PM | message detail
I've come to the conlcusion that Cloud is pretty good with the day vote.

Brilliant deduction.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 108/144; Oracle - 21st
Keno316 | Posted 10/7/2007 1:18:53 PM | message detail
Who ever said Cloud wasn't? The only person that can outpower him with it is Link...but then again...ITS FREAKING LINK!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 10/7/2007 1:19:25 PM | message detail
So, uh, I only pop in occasionally... what's this LFF stuff?
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OH JEEZE!
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/7/2007 1:20:36 PM | message detail
LFF is Leech Fan Factor. It's what allowed Ryu, Ryu H., and Knuckles to win
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Hochiminh155's Trail to Failure
swirldude has exposed me as a prediction fraud.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2007 1:22:26 PM | message detail
LFF = unnecessary term for SFF in multlioption polls.

Basically what let Snake beat Sephiroth.

TuRtLe
~~~
109/144 in the contest. Next pick: Cloud > Marcus Fenix
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
HaRRicH | Posted 10/7/2007 1:23:36 PM | message detail
You don't have to thank LFF for Hayabusa's victory when he beat Riku and Roxas combined, and as I understand it LFF is partially what allowed Rikku to perform as well as she did against Knuckles...if you don't buy the theory, THEN leeching is what gave Knuckles the victory.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
Seginustemple | Posted 10/7/2007 1:25:04 PM | message detail
LFF is Leech Fan Factor. It's what allowed Ryu, Ryu H., and Knuckles to win

Yeah, it's just too bad that Ryu beat Riku and Roxas combined. You'd have to think that 100% of Roxas votes and more than 60% of Haseo's votes go to Riku in order to think that he'd beat Ryu alone.
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If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula
HaRRicH | Posted 10/7/2007 1:25:18 PM | message detail
BT, hasn't RPGGuy explained it to you several times already?
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/7/2007 1:41:05 PM | message detail
Yes, and so have I, and so have other people, but he wants to be a complete ignorant jackass and even argue against it using his same old broken reasoning. Not believing in it is one thing, but continuing to act like it's impossible because you don't want to grasp the concept behind it is just ridiculous, and is why everyone hates him.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Dilated Chemist | Posted 10/7/2007 1:44:58 PM | message detail
Acronyms are *** anyway.

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Our life is short and our days run; as fast away as does the sun. And as a vapour or a drop of rain; once lost can ne'er be found again.
MasterMoltar | Posted 10/7/2007 1:51:10 PM | message detail
LFF is this contest's WDF. The worst term to come from it so far.

Best term? _____FEAR, always brings a smile to my face.
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Remember to:
Believe
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/7/2007 1:57:50 PM | message detail
SFF is the term for one a stronger character steals votes from the a weaker character in the same fanbase.

The L in LFF stands for leeching. The easiest way to think about it is to start with three characters. Add in a weaker, optionally SFF-resistant character that shares a fanbase with one of the others. The new character will draw a disproportionate amount of his votes from the character that he shares a fanbase with, which weakens the stronger character.

This is distinct from SFF in that LFF hurts the stronger character while SFF helps; they should not be confused.
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Mustache...and green...
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Lugia2 | Posted 10/7/2007 2:00:37 PM | message detail
This is distinct from SFF in that LFF hurts the stronger character while SFF helps; they should not be confused.

I'm not so sure about that; they're really just the same thing in different formats. We all saw Ryu did with it with 3 Nintendo guys in the poll (though I thought Rikku would benefit too...). And I really should've expected Mr. "Thanks KH!" Cloud to do well in the day. I mean, really...as if he wasn't strong enough...
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VIVA LA REVOLU-er, Wii!! Thank you Nintendo, thank you very much. Lugia2-1246-5250-1185
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/7/2007 2:01:38 PM | message detail
From RPGuy96 Posted 10/7/2007 4:57:50 PM #366
This is distinct from SFF in that LFF hurts the stronger character while SFF helps; they should not be confused.

The problem with this is that you make the incredibly flawed assumption that SFF helps a character. This is quite clearly not the case.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/7/2007 2:04:05 PM | message detail
SFF helps the stronger character and hurts the weaker - just look at Link/Ganondorf. That's not a flawed assumption in the slightest.

When it comes to this format, it seems that most of the time, the harm done to the stronger character through LFF overpowers any benefit from SFF...but we haven't seen anything with a split quite a decisive as Link/Ganondorf yet.
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2007 2:04:22 PM | message detail
Marcus is really steamrolling now, he should have the lead in a couple of updates. Let's see how high he can go... and if Ocelot can fight back tonight.
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/7/2007 2:06:33 PM | message detail
No, it hurts both characters. It's just that you can't see it in a 1v1 poll because the percentage can't vanish. This is why vote totals suffer in SFF matches.

If you think otherwise, you're simply wrong.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
Just Some Person | Posted 10/7/2007 2:07:35 PM | message detail
Marcus to Round 3?

If you said that a week before the contest, it would've been laughable. But now...

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Food.
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/7/2007 2:08:21 PM | message detail
Uh, people(not me) did say it before the contest, and everyone agreed it was a possibility.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/7/2007 2:08:54 PM | message detail
No, it hurts both characters. It's just that you can't see it in a 1v1 poll because the percentage can't vanish. This is why vote totals suffer in SFF matches.

Heh, I'd argue that votals vanish in 1v1 SFF polls because of LFF - people outside the fanbase simply don't vote, because they don't have the option to vote other characters.
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 2:09:37 PM | message detail
Marcus to Round 3?

If you said that a week before the contest, it would've been laughable. But now...


I know. I can't imagine anyone predicting something like that.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Marcus/Kefka/Cloud/Ocelot - Bracket: Cloud > Marcus - Vote: Ocelot (119/144)
Just Some Person | Posted 10/7/2007 2:09:50 PM | message detail
A possibility. But a laughable possibility.

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Food.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2007 2:10:00 PM | message detail
Marcus making it to Round 3 was the second most popular pick in the Guru (although to be fair, Jill was such a decisive favorite that it's kind of negligible). After Jill bombed everything really became just kind of up-in-the-air... because really, she had no business losing that match. =/
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/7/2007 2:10:05 PM | message detail
That's what I'm saying. SFF and LFF are the same thing. The extra term is unnecessary.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
Draco1214 | Posted 10/7/2007 2:11:33 PM | message detail
Ocelot just stalled...

THROUGH THIS ARM!
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Currently Playing: Wild Arms 3, Persona 3
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2007 2:11:34 PM | message detail
Why was it laughable? People acknowledged that Marcus and Kefka could go either way. And even if Jill didn't flop, it's not as if she's THAT far from Kefka to begin with. If Marcus was good enough to beat Kefka he had a good shot at what Jill was expected to be at too
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2007 2:12:20 PM | message detail
Arguing over SFF and LFF just seems like running around in circles. I think the latter's a dumb and unnecessary term, but if others like using it and it helps them understand it better, more power to them! (now if they try to correct me with it that's quite another thing entirely)
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
Yesmar | Posted 10/7/2007 2:12:31 PM | message detail
That was a big drop off for Fenix there. Even Kefka beat him.
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"Look out-- It's Liquids and Gases!"
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2007 2:13:54 PM | message detail
...and Ocelot makes his first gain in two hours.
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/7/2007 2:14:34 PM | message detail
That's what I'm saying. SFF and LFF are the same thing. The extra term is unnecessary.

No, they aren't. Think about it this way - Link and Vincent are in a poll. Link gets 65% and Vincent gets 35%. Introduce Zelda - she gets 20% from Link and 5% from Vincent - LFF at work. But, since few people like Zelda more than Link, Link is able to SFF 15% back from Zelda. Final percentage looks like 60% for Link, 30% Vincent, 10% Zelda.

Obviously this is an extreme case, but Link is stronger relative to Vincent with Zelda in the poll than without.
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 2:16:31 PM | message detail
Arguing over SFF and LFF just seems like running around in circles. I think the latter's a dumb and unnecessary term, blah blah

Exactly how I feel about it. I guess I just have a broader definition of what SFF is, because this whole idea of LFF falls right under SFF to me.

And Fenix vindicates himself for that last update.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Marcus/Kefka/Cloud/Ocelot - Bracket: Cloud > Marcus - Vote: Ocelot (119/144)
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/7/2007 2:16:38 PM | message detail
...I understand the concept. I agree with the concept. It's still just a fancy way of saying SFF.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2007 2:17:24 PM | message detail
In the stats topic, Marcus to round 3 was an accepted upset that several people (me, Moltar and Ashe to name a few) took.

On the board, everyone was under the impression that Zelos had a better shot of beating Fenix than Fenix did beating Kefka.

TuRtLe
~~~
109/144 in the contest. Next pick: Cloud > Marcus Fenix
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/7/2007 2:19:33 PM | message detail

On the board, everyone was under the impression that Zelos had a better shot of beating Fenix than Fenix did beating Kefka.


I'm pretty sure that was just Lightning Strikes.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/7/2007 2:19:40 PM | message detail
And I should mention that it takes less of an extreme case if you're replacing rather than adding a character - it's also easier to see in the final percentages. But it's still hard, which is why we probably haven't seen it this contest yet (and maybe we won't at all).

I worked out an example for Rikku/Vaan back on day one - but it involved a pretty hefty benefit to Rikku, which means Vaan would have to have some strength. After seeing Balthier, I no longer think that's the case, and Vaan probably kept Rikku from winning. Regardless, I think it is possible for such a situation to occur, just not very likely, and I'm done arguing because I have work to do!
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2007 2:20:27 PM | message detail
On the board there are people that Zelos got JRPG SFFed by Kefka and that he's as strong as Lloyd indirectly (what). The board surprises from time to time, but on average the Stats Topic seems to have a better handle on the matches (not unsurprisingly, I hope!).
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2007 2:20:55 PM | message detail
RPGuy, I don't know how to word how completely wrong you are. Link doesn't "SFF votes away from Zelda". Look at every SFF match ever, Bowser/Kirby as an extreme example, and look at their votals. Always considerably lower than the other matches around them. SFF hurts both characters, even if one character uses the fanbase split to overperform by a landslide. Even when the split is even (Squall/Vincent, Kirby/Bowser) votals suffer.

Take Link/Vincent. Like you said, 65/35 (though I think that's giving Link too little credit). Throw in Zelda, and say she gets 10% (being more than fair considering Link/Ganon). She takes 9% of that 10% from Link's pool due to SFF.

TuRtLe
~~~
109/144 in the contest. Next pick: Cloud > Marcus Fenix
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Pondos | Posted 10/7/2007 2:21:45 PM | message detail
Marcus is now down by only 15 votes!
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Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it is too dark to read. -Groucho Marx
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2007 2:23:15 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/7/2007 2:23:35 PM | message detail
It's not going to stay close.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 108/144; Oracle - 21st
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/7/2007 2:24:23 PM | message detail
I think people just don't give a damn if there's a match between Link and Ganondorf because both characters are liked by the same fanbase so they don't feel the need to vote/cheat/rally.

It's different in 4 way polls because there's still other guys that you want to lose so you vote.
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SC2k7: 88/128, tied for 1364th
Today's Pick: Mega Man > Knux (whoops)
capatillistpiglet | Posted 10/7/2007 2:26:02 PM | message detail
Marcus in second.
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I lied
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/7/2007 2:26:06 PM | message detail
Leaaaad change.
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SC2k7: 88/128, tied for 1364th
Today's Pick: Mega Man > Knux (whoops)
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 2:26:26 PM | message detail
Comeback am complete.

My bracket rejoices.

HANDGESTURE will always live on.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Marcus/Kefka/Cloud/Ocelot - Bracket: Cloud > Marcus - Vote: Ocelot (119/144)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2007 2:26:53 PM | message detail
Marcus leads, most arduous comeback ever completed
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/7/2007 2:28:54 PM | message detail
So...Fenix will have around 2-3 hours to build up his lead, right?
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Watch out, 'cause now I'm back! ...I'm still Warsola/War13104.
I repeat, I'm not ExTha. I'm as much ExTha as the above poster.
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