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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 511

UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/7/2007 11:18:19 AM | message detail
Weekend comebacks are such a drag.

~*ST*~
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/7/2007 11:31:02 AM | message detail
2nd Comeback
Votes needed (5m): 4.77

Based on last half hour:
Votes received: 16
Lead change at: 17:20

Based on last hour:
Votes received: 10
Lead change at: 19:02

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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/7/2007 11:31:43 AM | message detail
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 10/7/2007 2:18:19 PM | Message Detail | #301
Weekend comebacks are such a drag.


Truth.
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SC2k7: 88/128, tied for 1364th
Today's Pick: Mega Man > Knux (whoops)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2007 11:44:08 AM | message detail
Wow, Ocelot is holding up better than I would have expected him to at this point. At this rate Marcus should still overtake him with room to spare... but it's the weekend. We have a second night vote. Interesting...
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/7/2007 11:47:03 AM | message detail
We really don't have a second night vote on the weekends, it's not like the poll suddenly ends later or something. The day vote is just dragged out instead of being condensed into the ASV. It's been said before, but Ocelot was losing % all the way to the end of his last match, and that was on a weekend.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2007 11:50:32 AM | message detail
We really don't have a second night vote on the weekends

*bzzzt* We're sorry, you must not have been present during Liquid/Alucard/Ness/Zidane

Ocelot lost percentage to the end of the match, sure, but that's not indicative of there being no second night vote (especially since Cloud tends to gain like crazy until the end of a match). If the RATE of loss is affected, that's also indicative of a second night vote.
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2007 11:53:01 AM | message detail
And don't miss the point of the afterschool vote 'extending' the day vote, either. It may be condensed, but it drags out the gaining nonetheless. Look at Axel for chrissakes (and he would have likely been gaining right through that final hour if he and Frog weren't so close).
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/7/2007 11:53:41 AM | message detail
So basically we normally have a second night vote then?

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2007 11:54:06 AM | message detail
Heck just yesterday we saw Frog stop going down and start going back up around 10 PM.

I think technically there was a second night vote in Ocelot's first match too. Problem is, if you look at it, it's Cloud who improved with it.
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
ZhangJunyi | Posted 10/7/2007 11:56:42 AM | message detail
...>.> Soooo... any chance of Bowser > Auron next round?

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Not changing this sig until Cena, Batista, & Lashley lose their titles. Started: 1/24/07
http://www.dailymotion.com/PrivateBiscuit01
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/7/2007 11:56:58 AM | message detail
Time | Cloud . . | Jill . . . . | Zolomy . | Ocelot
01:00 | 53.10% | 17.99% | 08.46% | 20.46%
02:00 | 57.16% | 16.92% | 05.92% | 20.00%
03:00 | 57.64% | 16.95% | 05.87% | 19.53%
04:00 | 57.10% | 16.94% | 05.82% | 20.14%
05:00 | 59.61% | 16.16% | 05.54% | 18.68%
06:00 | 58.38% | 16.25% | 06.41% | 18.96%
07:00 | 59.09% | 15.95% | 05.03% | 19.93%
08:00 | 58.70% | 16.96% | 05.87% | 18.47%
09:00 | 62.87% | 15.31% | 05.24% | 16.58%
10:00 | 62.28% | 15.21% | 05.40% | 17.11%
11:00 | 61.58% | 15.64% | 05.02% | 17.75%
12:00 | 62.37% | 15.01% | 05.33% | 17.28%
13:00 | 62.84% | 15.27% | 04.95% | 16.95%
14:00 | 63.92% | 14.36% | 04.94% | 16.78%
15:00 | 63.13% | 14.93% | 04.88% | 17.05%
16:00 | 62.77% | 14.97% | 05.33% | 16.93%
17:00 | 63.65% | 14.41% | 05.46% | 16.48%
18:00 | 64.86% | 13.84% | 04.87% | 16.43%
19:00 | 63.77% | 15.03% | 04.94% | 16.27%
20:00 | 64.92% | 15.08% | 04.53% | 15.47%
21:00 | 65.14% | 13.57% | 05.19% | 16.10%
22:00 | 64.53% | 15.23% | 04.67% | 15.57%
23:00 | 64.64% | 14.63% | 04.93% | 15.81%
00:00 | 63.75% | 15.26% | 04.70% | 16.29%

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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2007 11:57:43 AM | message detail
In summer, we've always had a second night vote, it was part of the lexicon far before 'ASV' ever even entered our minds. Nowadays we start at 12 EST instead of 1 EST, which weakens it a bit (and significantly compared to when the poll ended at 3 EST), but it's still there. It's just that the afterschool vote tends to overpower it, and our night vote is replaced by a 'night stall'.

I'd be surprised if Marcus kept gaining like this on Ocelot in the night. Though he really wouldn't have to at this rate I think...
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/7/2007 11:59:51 AM | message detail
My point is the weekend doesn't matter, we have a second night vote no matter what. You said it yourself, the only requirement for the night vote is for the rate of your gains to slow down, and I'm pretty sure that happens even during weekday matches. I have no idea why it's being brought up that the weekend night vote is going to save him.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/7/2007 12:00:03 PM | message detail
Marcus kept destroying Kefka until the end of the poll last round though. Not sure if its different on weekends.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
Yesmar | Posted 10/7/2007 12:00:03 PM | message detail
We really don't have a second night vote on the weekends, it's not like the poll suddenly ends later or something. The day vote is just dragged out instead of being condensed into the ASV. It's been said before, but Ocelot was losing % all the way to the end of his last match, and that was on a weekend.

Everybody other than Cloud was losing percentage for the *entire* match during that poll. That was most likely just due to anti-votes for Cloud wearing off throughout the entire day.

We also have plenty of indication that there is a second night vote on the weekends. Rikku gained in percentage from ~5:30 to the end of the poll (albeit Knuckles didn't stop gaining either, he just slowed down massively). Yoshi also dropped almost 1.50% in that poll from 1:00 PM to the end of it as well. Auron increased with it/Shadow dropped off, The Boss used it to build up her lead against Tails, Alucard came back against Liquid with it, etc.

To be honest, I'm surprised that Fenix is still coming back. In most cases, the day vote has worn off by now on the weekends.
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"Look out-- It's Liquids and Gases!"
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2007 12:00:28 PM | message detail
Looks like that match was pretty much the same throughout the afternoon on. Well, this match will probably be different since a couple of polar opposites have entered into it(Marcus and Kefka)
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2007 12:01:43 PM | message detail
You miss the point again, EC. My entire point is that the night vote is not overshadowed by the afterschool vote on weekends, which is what gives us an ACTUAL second night vote. It's the reason for Alucard's comeback against Liquid - it *does* exist.
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/7/2007 12:07:33 PM | message detail
1.Kefka will lead at the beginning
2. Ocelot will overtake Kefka.
3. Ocelot and Kefka build their lead over Marcus
4. Day hits.
5. Marcus overtakes Kefka

6. Marcus overtakes Ocelot

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Hochiminh155's Trail to Failure
swirldude has exposed me as a prediction fraud.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/7/2007 12:10:17 PM | message detail
Eh, I'd call this one for Marcus at this point. He's going to overtake Ocelot in a few hours, and then have another few more to pad that lead.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 108/144; Oracle - 21st
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/7/2007 12:10:42 PM | message detail
That really isn't necessary, hochi. Everybody worth their salt knew this would happen from before the contest began.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2007 12:13:03 PM | message detail
Midna
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/7/2007 12:13:52 PM | message detail
hey kh look who i'm directing that to before getting mad
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2007 12:17:41 PM | message detail
And yeah, I'm thinking things look best for Marcus now (especially with updates like that one), but the second night vote still keeps potential for it to be interesting either way. What's notable is that like the morning vote and the afterschool vote, the first night vote is not necessarily indicative of how the second night vote... for example, I don't expect Kefka to improve much because his night vote (and voting in general) is so dang front-loaded. Fenix's second night might not be nearly as pitiful as his first one. There's an element of unpredictability there.

Interesting note: if you think Kefka is getting significantly SFFed by Cloud here, then you have to think that with a comparable force (like Link), he could conceivably get second here. Which is odd to say the least given last round...
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/7/2007 12:17:59 PM | message detail
From Lady Ashe Posted 10/7/2007 3:10:42 PM #320
That really isn't necessary, hochi. Everybody worth their salt knew this would happen from before the contest began.

XFD

~*ST*~
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2007 12:18:51 PM | message detail
hey kh look who i'm directing that to before getting mad

hey what sometimes I just like saying bold unrelated nouns and articles sometimes even prepositions what what
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/7/2007 12:20:28 PM | message detail
I don't think Kefka's getting hit by too much SFF here, to be honest. Obviously there's some, you'd have to be daft to think otherwise, but the FF6 and FF7 fanbases don't strike me as extremely similar.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 108/144; Oracle - 21st
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 12:21:31 PM | message detail
I'm worth my salt.

BAROOOMPH

Believe

(BTW - Kefka's pulling sub-10% updates now. Way to go, you clown thing!)
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Marcus/Kefka/Cloud/Ocelot - Bracket: Cloud > Marcus - Vote: Ocelot (119/144)
Seginustemple | Posted 10/7/2007 12:21:47 PM | message detail
That really isn't necessary, hochi. Everybody worth their salt knew this would happen from before the contest began.

Yeah huh, what with you all having Jill in your brackets :P
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If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula
Keno316 | Posted 10/7/2007 12:22:05 PM | message detail
I think last round is more proof than anything that there isn't SFF here. At least not significant amounts.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
ZFS | Posted 10/7/2007 12:23:13 PM | message detail
I don't think Kefka's getting hit by too much SFF here, to be honest.

I agree.

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let's mosey
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2007 12:24:31 PM | message detail
Kefka's already so weak that I think the only people still voting for him have to be really big fans >_>
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/7/2007 12:24:54 PM | message detail
let's mosey
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 108/144; Oracle - 21st
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 12:25:01 PM | message detail
Interesting note: if you think Kefka is getting significantly SFFed by Cloud here, then you have to think that with a comparable force (like Link), he could conceivably get second here. Which is odd to say the least given last round...

Eh, put Link here and I take Ocelot to get second. I think Cloud's hurting both, but Kefka's getting the worse end of it.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Marcus/Kefka/Cloud/Ocelot - Bracket: Cloud > Marcus - Vote: Ocelot (119/144)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2007 12:25:30 PM | message detail
Yeah I forgot assuming significant SFF would require giving Kefka a modicum of credit, 'twas foolish for me to bring it up sorry

(I wish that was sarcasm)
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/7/2007 12:26:15 PM | message detail
Sprite Kefka would be winning today's poll !
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 108/144; Oracle - 21st
ZFS | Posted 10/7/2007 12:27:15 PM | message detail
sprite kefka would be suffering from significant sff imo

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let's mosey
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 12:27:19 PM | message detail
Oh wait, we're talking significant SFF?

I'm only talking like 1% or 2%.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Marcus/Kefka/Cloud/Ocelot - Bracket: Cloud > Marcus - Vote: Ocelot (119/144)
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/7/2007 12:28:06 PM | message detail
I have the analysis crew spot for tonight's match, but I really don't have the time to put any thought into it today like I'd want to. If someone else wants to take it, go for it, otherwise I'll still do it, just so it's not an empty spot.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2007 12:28:37 PM | message detail
no fun time for you tonite ec </3
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Marcus/Kefka/Cloud/Ocelot - Bracket: Cloud > Marcus - Vote: Ocelot (119/144)
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/7/2007 12:29:50 PM | message detail
sryplz.
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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/7/2007 12:30:35 PM | message detail
Given how much time and effort today's took, I would consider it if two in a row didn't seem just a bit unfair. <_<
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/7/2007 12:41:02 PM | message detail
Slowest comeback ever?
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
red sox 777 | Posted 10/7/2007 12:42:58 PM | message detail
Cloud/FFVII has an amazing second night vote- Cloud was outright gaining on Link the final 3 hours or so last year, and FF gained on Zelda the last 11 hours. Vincent actually managed to cut 300 votes off Sonic's lead late at night- Crono wasn't even able to stall Sonic until the last hour.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 91/128 -- T-757 (156 way)
Bracket: Megaman > KOS-MOS -- Vote: Megaman
Keno316 | Posted 10/7/2007 12:52:03 PM | message detail
Wonder how high Cloud will end up at.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/7/2007 1:06:26 PM | message detail
Cloud at over 55%? I never saw this coming! Wow, Cloud is a beast. Link has a tall order when his match comes. I doubt he gets this high of percent
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Hochiminh155's Trail to Failure
swirldude has exposed me as a prediction fraud.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2007 1:08:13 PM | message detail
Back now, and good to see Marcus closing the gap.

I'm not too worried about his "second night vote" given A) The fact he was even with Ocelot for most of the first hour B) Gears has a much older base audience than say, Kingdom Hearts.

TuRtLe
~~~
109/144 in the contest. Next pick: Cloud > Marcus Fenix
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ZFS | Posted 10/7/2007 1:09:01 PM | message detail
I think Cloud will be good here for a bit over 56%. Second impressive showing from him so far!

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let's mosey
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2007 1:09:33 PM | message detail
Cloud at over 55%? I never saw this coming! Wow, Cloud is a beast. Link has a tall order when his match comes. I doubt he gets this high of percent

but teh majical lff will be hrting link!!!!!!!11111111111111

Like I said, if you want to draw comparisons, use their round 3 matches where Link will score higher on much strong opposition.

TuRtLe
~~~
109/144 in the contest. Next pick: Cloud > Marcus Fenix
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
hochiminh155 | Posted 10/7/2007 1:10:39 PM | message detail
Like I said, if you want to draw comparisons, use their round 3 matches where Link will score higher on much strong opposition.

But Auron will be there leeching a lot of Cloud. That's no a fair comparison
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Hochiminh155's Trail to Failure
swirldude has exposed me as a prediction fraud.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2007 1:10:44 PM | message detail
A) The fact he was even with Ocelot for most of the first hour

The first hour means almost jack for trends half the time, everyone knows that. They're more indicative of the day than the night anyway...
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
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