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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 510

YoAriel33 | Posted 10/5/2007 9:16:59 PM | message detail
Bowser, you better not screw this up. I don't want to miss the first four Round 2 matches.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
swirIdude | Posted 10/5/2007 9:17:30 PM | message detail
Marcus or Ocelot guys?
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If Scorpion doesn't win...I'll make this sig go on...end of the contest. ~hochi
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
Gaddswell | Posted 10/5/2007 9:19:03 PM | message detail
Probably Marcus.
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Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__
Master Moltar | Posted 10/5/2007 9:19:12 PM | message detail
My bracket says Marcus but my heart says HANDGESTURE
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Samus/Frog/Scorpion/Midna - Bracket: Samus > Midna - Vote: Samus (115/136)
swirIdude | Posted 10/5/2007 9:19:43 PM | message detail
I LIVE ON THROUGH THIS HAND GESTURE!
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If Scorpion doesn't win...I'll make this sig go on...end of the contest. ~hochi
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/5/2007 9:20:20 PM | message detail
I'm back, and goddamn do you suck Midna. I fully expect Frog to eek out a lead overnight, but he should fall apart when the sun comes up.

At least there's no ASV today, so he doesn't completely blow the match over the course of one hour.

TuRtLe
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101/128 in the contest. Next pick: Mega Man > Knuckles
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Janus5000 | Posted 10/5/2007 9:20:25 PM | message detail
...Samus went up?
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/5/2007 9:20:55 PM | message detail
GO HANDGESTURE <3
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/5/2007 9:21:05 PM | message detail
I'm more interested in Ocelot's picture than the match itself. If he gets a real time 3D image, might we see... could we possibly see... Naked Snake?

Of course, judging by today's crappy picture, I probably shouldn't get my hopes up.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Master Moltar | Posted 10/5/2007 9:21:30 PM | message detail
More updates like that please
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Samus/Frog/Scorpion/Midna - Bracket: Samus > Midna - Vote: Samus (115/136)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/5/2007 9:22:17 PM | message detail
So, I get to within 10 brackets of the leaderboard and I immediately lose 2 matches. So I guess this means Cloud > Marcus and Auron > Bowser are confirmed, so I can get close to the leaderboard again before getting killed by Zelda advancing or something.

TuRtLe
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101/128 in the contest. Next pick: Mega Man > Knuckles
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
creativename | Posted 10/5/2007 9:23:20 PM | message detail
...did you see the Crew predictions?

No, but they're not usually particularly good are they?

The Oracle seems to have her between 43%-44%, so this is a very mild overperformance right now. Probably mostly at Midna's expense, as Midna seemed pegged between 14%-15%.


Also Midna clearly getting SFFed here. Using King Morgoth's calculator last round her % on Link was about 19-20% (pegging Scorpion at 26%-27%), this round it's looking to be 15%-16%.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/5/2007 9:23:49 PM | message detail
And damn is Samus disappointing me here.

SFF or not, Yoshi > Scorpion by a lot, Knux > Frog by a lot and KOS-MOS and Midna seem like they'd have a good match.

TuRtLe
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105/132 in the contest. Next pick: Samus > Frog
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/5/2007 9:24:48 PM | message detail
Was her % on BL based on Kratos? Because if it was, I think Kratos has dropped since his last appearance.

TuRtLe
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105/132 in the contest. Next pick: Samus > Frog
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Keno316 | Posted 10/5/2007 9:25:23 PM | message detail
After what I saw from Sub Zero last round. I don't buy Yoshi > Scorpion. At least not much by much.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/5/2007 9:25:33 PM | message detail
I think there will be a BIG L sitting there just to the bottom right of Kirby in the match pic... L-block will only get its classic appearance in sprite round, which is usually in Round 3, so L-block will win this round and maybe even the next one, you'll see!
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
creativename | Posted 10/5/2007 9:26:58 PM | message detail
The numbers I used worked out to 19%-20% for Midna and about 17% for Kratos Aurion. So a drop for Kratos. But obviously the inputs are debatable.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/5/2007 9:27:34 PM | message detail
Yoshi beat Dante and got 42% on Solid Snake. That's way better then whatever Subby was projected on Sonic.

TuRtLe
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105/132 in the contest. Next pick: Samus > Frog
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/5/2007 9:27:42 PM | message detail
Yoshi is stronger than Scorpion (no way does Scorpion go even with Dante, even before SFF); there's no rule that states Scorpion and Sub-Zero are joined at the hip. However, it's not that significant because the Round 3 match will deal with SFF in addition to innate strength.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
creativename | Posted 10/5/2007 9:28:07 PM | message detail
I don' t know about Yoshi being that much stronger than Scorpion, at least in this format. Stronger yes, but by a lot? I wouldn't think so.
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Keno316 | Posted 10/5/2007 9:29:05 PM | message detail
That's my point. This format is very different. I wouldn't be surprised to see Scorpion finish ahead of Yoshi. SFF or not.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/5/2007 9:29:36 PM | message detail
Yoshi managed almost 30% with Mega Man and Knuckles in the poll. That says a lot to me about Yoshi's strength in this format. And I'd take Yoshi outside of this format to at least 55-45 Scorpion.

TuRtLe
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105/132 in the contest. Next pick: Samus > Frog
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/5/2007 9:30:29 PM | message detail
Yeah, Yoshi is much stronger than Scorpion in this type of poll or in 1 on 1.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
creativename | Posted 10/5/2007 9:34:37 PM | message detail
I figured Frog wouldn't be able to match his %age from last round, because the competition is tougher here. I hope he can stay above 17.5% though.
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/5/2007 9:36:20 PM | message detail
Frog cut?!?!
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/5/2007 9:37:11 PM | message detail
Well, he still has all night to increase before he starts falling like a rock, I think 18-19% would seem about right to me.

And here's more proof of SFF hurting both characters and leaving uninvolved characters alone.

TuRtLe
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105/132 in the contest. Next pick: Samus > Frog
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
charmander6000 | Posted 10/5/2007 9:40:54 PM | message detail
1st round Mega Man > KOS-MOS - 26.74%
2nd round Mega Man > KOS-MOS - 26.71%

1st round Yoshi > Knuckles - 43.97%
2nd round Yoshi > Knuckles - 41.79%
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 34: Samus > Frog Points: 99/136
creativename | Posted 10/5/2007 9:53:52 PM | message detail
The Yankees could've used some insect-eating frogs at the Jake today...poor Joba.

Anyway, if Square ever got around to that Chrono Trigger remake, Frog would be having no trouble with Scorpion here! (hell, even a freakin' lousy cheap ass DS remake would be a fair boost)
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/5/2007 10:01:47 PM | message detail
I'm starting to worry Frog might not get the lead at some point tonight.

Diasppointing =(

TuRtLe
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105/132 in the contest. Next pick: Samus > Frog
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/5/2007 10:01:54 PM | message detail
I figured Frog wouldn't be able to match his %age from last round, because the competition is tougher here. I hope he can stay above 17.5% though.

I really, really doubt it. Not only is the competition certainly tougher (Scorpion >> Axel and Midna > Kerrigan), but Frog won't benefit from an inflated percentage due to a neck-and-neck match and incredible last hour rally.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/5/2007 10:03:27 PM | message detail
I think the MM>Samus bandwagon just crashed and burned.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/5/2007 10:06:44 PM | message detail
Lucky I wasn't boarding that train!
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
paraboxx | Posted 10/5/2007 10:08:46 PM | message detail
Not necessarily. Yoshi is still stronger than Scorpion, and he's bound to take away more from Samus than Mega.

That said, I know I'm not on it.
transience | Posted 10/5/2007 10:09:00 PM | message detail
hmm.. no surprises here today. Samus doing pretty good. MM still has a chance - who knows how the fanbase splits in that match - but Samus has to be the favourite just based on strength alone.

I.. uh.. I got nothing else. oh! Frog is a 3 hour kind of guy, so I expect Scorpion to just start dominating him in a couple of hours. and when the day comes? ouch.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/5/2007 10:15:25 PM | message detail
Frog isn't a 3 hour guy, he's a night guy. He was building his lead on Axel until the sun came up.

TuRtLe
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105/132 in the contest. Next pick: Samus > Frog
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/5/2007 10:16:24 PM | message detail
Mega Man beating Samus next round is doubtful IMO, but if he makes it close enough, I can see Bowser hurting Samus more than Yoshi will.

TuRtLe
~~~
105/132 in the contest. Next pick: Samus > Frog
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
transience | Posted 10/5/2007 10:16:52 PM | message detail
so, what's the consensus?

a.) Samus is much stronger than Sonic;
b.) Sub-Zero is much stronger than Scorpion.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
ZFS | Posted 10/5/2007 10:18:22 PM | message detail
Anyway, if Square ever got around to that Chrono Trigger remake, Frog would be having no trouble with Scorpion here! (hell, even a freakin' lousy cheap ass DS remake would be a fair boost)

That's probably be the best thing to happen to Chrono characters. Even a direct port would probably do wonders.

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Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/5/2007 10:20:08 PM | message detail
a.) Samus is much stronger than Sonic;

Sub-Zero is only a bit stronger than Scorpion.
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/5/2007 10:20:50 PM | message detail
I'm going with both.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Samus/Frog/Scorpion/Midna - Bracket: Samus > Midna - Vote: Samus (115/136)
ZFS | Posted 10/5/2007 10:21:28 PM | message detail
Feeling both, too.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/5/2007 10:22:31 PM | message detail
Both

Scorpion got destroyed by Zero and (I think) Auron. Sub-Zero did much better on a KH2 boosted Auron.

TuRtLe
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105/132 in the contest. Next pick: Samus > Frog
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/5/2007 10:27:12 PM | message detail
boy, Midna is really stinking it up isn't she
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 10/5/2007 10:28:05 PM | message detail
but zero is also > sub-zero

so if sub-zero was in this match instead of scorpion, what would he get? 28-30%?
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/5/2007 10:29:46 PM | message detail
I'm glad the myth has finally been disproven!

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JustForFun1988 | Posted 10/5/2007 10:32:47 PM | message detail
6 more days till Zero dissapointing match.

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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/5/2007 10:32:56 PM | message detail
Ima say both too.
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Hi
creativename | Posted 10/5/2007 10:33:36 PM | message detail
Ooh...Frog doing well now.

I think he's got a decent shot to finish above 17.5/18%.

I'm glad the myth has finally been disproven!

What myth?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/5/2007 10:34:45 PM | message detail
I could see Subby in the high 20's here. 28% or so.

Aside from 2-D fighters impressing across the bracket here, Subby's performances last year may have been legit. He's a high midcarder, probably around the area of Kratos and Ryu H

TuRtLe
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105/132 in the contest. Next pick: Samus > Frog
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/5/2007 10:34:57 PM | message detail
Yeah, poor Frog is going to get destroyed during the day. He doesn't have Kerrigan to absorb some of the percentage lost, either. If he's only getting 19-20% now, during his best time, he could conceivably lose updates, even whole hours, to Midna. Probably in the morning.
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