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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 510

Kaxon | Posted 10/4/2007 10:17:21 PM | message detail
mm > sephiroth? are you guys serious or just hopeful?

I'm pretty sure I'm the one who somehow initiated this, and it was definitely not serious when I said it. Although I can't imagine anything in the contest that would be sweeter if by some miracle it happened.

(Except maybe CATS winning the whole thing while I'm asking for miracles...)
---
R.I.P. Robert Jordan, 1948-2007
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/4/2007 10:17:55 PM | message detail
Well, Zelda gets 40% on Mega Man, then gets 45% on Snake the next time she appears, that seems pretty consistant. Then again, that doesn't account for the Nintendo boost.

Come to think of it, that's a very weird match.

TuRtLe
~~~
101/128 in the contest. Next pick: Mega Man > Knuckles
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
transience | Posted 10/4/2007 10:20:52 PM | message detail
Megaroth returns, baby
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/4/2007 10:20:59 PM | message detail
Mega Man (2005c) VS Zelda (2005c)

Mega Man has a strength of 38.79.
Zelda has a strength of 33.71.

Mega Man wins with 56.55% of the vote!
A win of 13,794 with 105,326 total votes cast.

Oh wait, nevermind. That does account for the Nintendo boost.

Damn, Snake was stronger than I thought in 2005.

TuRtLe
~~~
101/128 in the contest. Next pick: Mega Man > Knuckles
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2007 10:22:47 PM | message detail
People don't give Snake 2k5 credit because of what Bowser did to him (in the sprite round of course, but that didn't matter to many). Never mind that outside of that match, he looked golden - 55 on Zelda, whipping Sora, 43 on Mario...
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
transience | Posted 10/4/2007 10:24:29 PM | message detail
whoa, check out Mega Man here.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/4/2007 10:24:46 PM | message detail
whoa, check out KOS-MOS here.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 96/128; Oracle - 18th
transience | Posted 10/4/2007 10:25:28 PM | message detail
yeah, Knuckles/KOS is like a repeat of the Rikku match. KOS should even take the lead overnight before that morning vote flattens her.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2007 10:25:47 PM | message detail
Mega laying the smackdown on Yoshi and Knuckles as we start to draw closer into the night? oh mans

(hint I think Mega takes the night vote)
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
wavedash101 | Posted 10/4/2007 10:26:00 PM | message detail
aww KOS couldnt kept it up

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash! [no u cru]
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/4/2007 10:27:27 PM | message detail
Like I said earlier, Mega Man is a fairly consistant character, whereas Yoshi and Knux have brutal night votes. Look at any of Mega Man's matches. His trends are defined by his opponents.

TuRtLe
~~~
101/128 in the contest. Next pick: Mega Man > Knuckles
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/4/2007 10:42:57 PM | message detail
Yeah, expect Mega Man to gain until the ASV, where Yoshi and Knuckles should slightly improve. Oh, and they'll probably take the morning vote too.

TuRtLe
~~~
101/128 in the contest. Next pick: Mega Man > Knuckles
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/4/2007 10:58:04 PM | message detail
Check out all these random vote spikes for Knuckles! n_n
---
Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 96/128; Oracle - 18th
Lopen | Posted 10/4/2007 11:14:31 PM | message detail
Hmmm. So apparently when I had Mega Man getting 40% in this match it was some manner of radical thinking? Question: What's everyone expecting Samus to get tomorrow?
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/4/2007 11:15:03 PM | message detail
85%

Sorry, you can't win 'em all.
---
Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 96/128; Oracle - 18th
greatone10 | Posted 10/4/2007 11:30:05 PM | message detail
So, Magus or Knuckles, which one ranks lower this year?
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
voltch | Posted 10/4/2007 11:41:02 PM | message detail
will round 2 be as good as round1?
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
transience | Posted 10/5/2007 12:14:52 AM | message detail
hey, Mega Man's dropping like a rock. must be 3am.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
HaRRicH | Posted 10/5/2007 12:46:50 AM | message detail
Today's going to be a slow match and the first round is over...so I had a little fun and made a bracket. This bracket consists of only characters that were eliminated in the first round this contest, and they were seeded by how many votes they had. This is by no means supposed to be accurate, but when we're dealing with the generally-more-fodderific half of the contest, then give them odd seeding and strip them from this format we're seeing them to place them back in a traditional format...well, it could be fun to predict. None of these character finished over 29% this year, and by my count only fifteen of them have ever won a match before (most victories coming from either the Female, Villain, or 2k2 brackets). Now, for the bracket:



1-Rikku
16-Agent J
8-Diablo
9-Isaac
5-Pyramid Head
12-Prince of all Cosmos
4-Zidane
13-Toad
6-Tom Nook
11-Banjo
3-Crash Bandicoot
14-Wander
7-Captain Falcon
10-Matt
2-Kratos Aurion
15-Haseo

1-Ness
16-Nathan Hale
8-Laharl
9-Peach
5-Little Mac
12-Vaan
4-Sam Fisher
13-Pac-Man
6-Frank West
11-CATS
3-Axel
14-Spyro
7-Jill Valentine
10-Tommy Vercetti
2-Wesker
15-Daxter

1-Mewtwo
16-Jade Curtiss
8-Thrall
9-Geno
5-Agent 47
12-Simon Belmont
4-Marth
13-Vyse
6-Prince of Persia
11-Kerrigan
3-Pit
14-PaRappa
7-Roxas
10-Ratchet
2-Bomberman
15-Tingle

1-Ike
16-Midgar Zolom
8-Arthas
9-Chris Redfield
5-Jak
12-Guybrush Threepwood
4-Ridley
13-Miles Edgeworth
6-The Boss
11-Zelos
3-Lloyd Irving
14-Viewtiful Joe
7-Tails
10-Serge
2-Akuma
15-Rayman



Worth anything to anyone?
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/5/2007 12:51:34 AM | message detail
7-Jill Valentine
10-Tommy Vercetti
2-Wesker
15-Daxter


The sad thing is that Wesker might lose to Jill......
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/5/2007 12:53:00 AM | message detail
KOS-MOS stuck in the same poll with Megaman, Yoshi, and Knuckles.

I think the ASV will somehow bring her into the negatives
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
transience | Posted 10/5/2007 12:58:22 AM | message detail
Mega Man's trying his hardest to lose an update to Yoshi here
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
HaRRicH | Posted 10/5/2007 1:00:41 AM | message detail
None of these character finished over 29% this year, and by my count only fifteen of them have ever won a match before (most victories coming from either the Female, Villain, or 2k2 brackets).

Gotta correct myself: of the fifteen that's ever won before, eight have won matches outside of the Female/Villain/2k2 brackets...

Diablo
Ness
Fisher
Pac-Man
Vercetti
Vyse
Lloyd
Tails

...while the other seven only won matches in one of those questionable brackets:

Rikku
Crash
Peach
Jill
Wesker
Bomberman
The Boss
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
sephsblade | Posted 10/5/2007 1:03:51 AM | message detail
ZERO BANDWAGON WHERE
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I Am The Cat Who Swims On The Cake
BesaidGuy | Posted 10/5/2007 1:04:03 AM | message detail
I just went back and looked at the first contest for about the 100th time and to this day

Link as a 2 seed
Mega Man barely losing to Sephiroth
Sephiroth as a 7 seed
And Pac Man as a 1 seed


still make me giggle a little bit. What is even more funny, is that the funniest thing is not how low Sephiroth is or how close MM was, it is that Link was a 2 seed. I wish I was there that year just to see the shock on peoples faces when Sephiroth started decimating people as a 7 seed and as they watched Link murder everything in his way.
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FuturamandFFX/TheRealoSix
AndyManCan's favorite user
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/5/2007 1:04:16 AM | message detail
So I guess just about everyone who votes for Yoshi against Megaman one-on-one is still voting for Yoshi here. Geez what a dedicated 30%.

Yoshi never drops below 30% in a match, book it!
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/5/2007 1:23:36 AM | message detail
I think many of the matches where we believe/remember one SFF'ing another character is going to bite us in the ass. Not that SFF doesn't matter, but if Mega Man already stole a whole lot of votes from Yoshi one-on-one, then you'd have to think the ones who voted for Yoshi are more loyal than the others...and statistically speaking, one is much more likely to like Mega Man here than Knuckles or KOS-MOS -- the same stat goes for the number of people who think Mega > Yoshi compared to the number of people who think Knuckles/KOS-MOS > Yoshi. So...maybe seeing Yoshi stand so strong right now shouldn't be such a surprise...

...and the same thing can essentially go for Bowser/Ryu if that's a repeatable anomaly -- you essentially take what was once a 50/50 match for Ryu, then shave most of his less loyal fans until he's at 40%...and considering Bowser > Mewtwo/Toad, there are not going to be too many Mewtwo/Toad > Ryu people who voted Ryu > Bowser first.


I know this can apply to a lot of things, but I'm keeping it strictly to when we're confident there were under-performances of some sort from previous matches. Based off of that, we may want to keep an especially close eye on Ryu and Sora this round, Yoshi next round, and Auron if/when he reaches Cloud...seems like the previously-SFF'd haven't wanted to budge a lot yet this contest against those who have SFF'd them one-on-one. Many of us used that logic to agree that a character was going to be smashed (it would explain why so many people [like myself] took Knuckles to advance today), but it looks to be that those matches were signs that those characters were not about to budge much more when there were weaker characters in the poll. It may change if stronger ones jump in...but right now, I'm up for being patient about it.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/5/2007 2:15:13 AM | message detail
The 5-6 hour is absolutely murdering Megaman so far. He lost an update to Yoshi
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/5/2007 2:17:25 AM | message detail
Mega Man has been dropping for 2.5 hours. I don't feel like researching trends at this time of night, but I sincerely doubt he wins the day vote with these two sharing the poll. If MM continues to drop all day, Yoshi will look like the more deserving star of the match.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Gaddswell | Posted 10/5/2007 2:25:06 AM | message detail
So that's 2 updates now where Mega lost an update to Yoshi.

How are the hourly updates looking so far for this match?
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Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__
transience | Posted 10/5/2007 2:26:59 AM | message detail
you guys remember Mega Man, right? the guy who falls from 3-4am on?

he'll fall in the day, but not *too* hard. I think he'll end up somewhere in the 37s.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/5/2007 2:30:24 AM | message detail
Somewhere in the 37's is a good performance, but it's just a smidge more than where the Crew pegged him (and I get the feeling we were all low-balling it) and right about where the Oracle predicted him. Yoshi may outdo expectations by a fair bit more; at least he's making up for 2005.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 10/5/2007 2:32:03 AM | message detail
yeah, I'm not understanding the hype for this being a great performance. it's an average one - not good, not bad, just expected. what were people expecting, MM at 32%?
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
transience | Posted 10/5/2007 2:32:55 AM | message detail
though I guess when you compare it to Sonic's match, it looks pretty good. in those terms it's pretty good, but again, why would you compare your guy to someone who's been sucking universally so far?
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/5/2007 2:33:34 AM | message detail
Time .| Yoshi ...| Knukz ...| Mega ....| Kos-Mos
01:00 | 28.06% | 17.37% | 39.72% | 14.85%
02:00 | 26.64% | 17.50% | 40.86% | 15.00%
03:00 | 27.26% | 17.64% | 39.92% | 15.19%
04:00 | 28.38% | 20.01% | 36.70% | 14.91%
05:00 | 28.39% | 21.68% | 35.57% | 14.36%
05:30 | 30.20% | 20.80% | 33.48% | 15.52%



---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/5/2007 2:55:04 AM | message detail
.__.
---
President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
Ranked: #16th in the Character Battle 2006. (207 Points)
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/5/2007 2:57:53 AM | message detail
Alright, taking bets between who improves the most with the morning votes.
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/5/2007 2:59:38 AM | message detail
Knuckles
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Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__
transience | Posted 10/5/2007 3:02:27 AM | message detail
should be Knuckles > Yoshi > Mega Man, I think

KOS doesn't exist of course
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/5/2007 3:13:29 AM | message detail
Maybe their trends will be so similar that it's still exactly the same
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/5/2007 3:23:41 AM | message detail
So far looks like it'll be between Yoshi and Megaman. Knuckles what r u doin
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/5/2007 3:28:27 AM | message detail
Knuckles: oh yeah, it's the morning, lol I forgot
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
transience | Posted 10/5/2007 3:32:34 AM | message detail
well I think we can count Mega Man out
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
transience | Posted 10/5/2007 3:50:43 AM | message detail
...okay, Yoshi wins the morning vote.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/5/2007 3:53:17 AM | message detail
Haha. People said Megaman may drop to the 37s.

But if this keeps up he may just drop to the mid 36s.
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
transience | Posted 10/5/2007 4:31:38 AM | message detail
I think Mega Man will be all right here. the morning is going to be the worst of it - Mario and Sonic always do best at this time, better than in the day. remember Sonic yesterday and Bowser's match with Ryu.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/5/2007 5:02:43 AM | message detail
Morning vote awards ceremony

4th Place: KOS-MOS(-1.82)

*shock*

3rd Place: Megaman(-0.97)

Better luck next time Megaman

2nd Place: Knuckles(-0.28)

Even second place technically did worse, all because...

1st Place: Yoshi(+3.06)

That kind of morning dominance should be outlawed!

We presented Yoshi with a trophy only to have him eat it seconds later. Oh well
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/5/2007 6:30:15 AM | message detail
Here are the first round x-stats. While some matches are way off some of them were almost done perfectly by the x-stats.

1. Yoshi - 50.00%
2. Knuckles - 43.97%
3. Rikku - 43.34%
4. Vaan - 21.20%

1. Mega Man - 50.00%
2. KOS-MOS - 26.74%
3. Arthas Menethil - 23.68%
4. Diablo - 23.39%

1. Samus Aran - 50.00%
2. Frog - 26.48%
3. Axel - 26.38%
4. Sarah Kerrigan - 17.61%

1. Scorpion - 50.00%
2. Midna - 40.27%
3. Kratos Aurion - 36.54%
4. Agent 47 - 32.40%

1. Marcus Fenix - 50.00%
2. Kefka Palazzo - 46.51%
3. Tom Nook - 33.68%
4. Zelos Wilder - 25.41%

1. Cloud Strife - 50.00%
2. Revolver Ocelot - 22.40%
3. Jill Valentine - 20.27%
4. Midgar Zolom - 8.26%

1. Auron - 50.00%
2. Shadow the Hedgehog - 37.78%
3. Pyramid Head - 27.23%
4. Chris Redfield - 24.85%

1. Ryu - 50.00%
2. Bowser - 44.08%
3. Mewtwo - 40.73%
4. Toad - 21.83%

1. Sephiroth - 50.00%
2. Meta Knight - 24.79%
3. Princess Peach - 21.74%
4. CATS - 16.88%

1. Fox McCloud - 50.00%
2. Wario - 33.03%
3. Captain Falcon - 29.16%
4. Banjo - 22.26%

1. Mario - 50.00%
2. Big Boss - 28.43%
3. Pac-Man - 14.86%
4. Wander - 13.44%

1. Magus - 50.00%
2. Phoenix Wright - 43.70%
3. Bomberman - 43.64%
4. Crash Bandicoot - 40.79%

1. Link - 50.00%
2. Bidoof - 18.46%
3. Miles Edgeworth - 11.46%
4. Agent J - 5.88%

1. Vincent Valentine - 50.00%
2. Zelda - 43.58%
3. The Boss - 29.05%
4. Miles “Tails” Prower - 28.74%

1. Crono - 50.00%
2. Raiden - 29.49%
3. Sam Fisher - 29.18%
4. Simon Belmont - 19.68%

1. Zero - 50.00%
2. HK-47 - 35.00%
3. Lloyd Irving - 33.38%
4. Jak - 32.36%

1. Luigi - 50.00%
2. Mudkip - 37.61%
3. Pit - 28.94%
4. Tingle - 14.21%

1. Ganondorf - 50.00%
2. Vergil - 28.29%
3. Thrall - 25.62%
4. Ratchet - 22.93%

1. Master Chief - 50.00%
2. Yuna - 39.78%
3. Tommy Vercetti - 24.34%
4. PaRappa the Rapper - 17.13%

1. Liquid Snake - 50.00%
2. Alucard - 50.00%
3. Ness - 47.78%
4. Zidane - 40.62%

1. Dante - 50.00%
2. Amaterasu - 31.62%
3. Little Mac - 25.16%
4. Matt - 18.97%

1. Ada Wong - 50.00%
2. Balthier Bunansa - 46.21%
3. Frank West - 34.38%
4. Jade Curtiss - 18.02%

1. Pikachu - 50.00%
2. Tidus - 46.51%
3. Isaac - 32.46%
4. Serge - 27.56%

1. Leon Kennedy - 50.00%
2. Vivi Ornitier - 43.48%
3. Ridley - 32.00%
4. Spyro the Dragon - 20.15%

1. Kirby - 50.00%
2. L-Block - 41.03%
3. Laharl - 27.63%
4. Nathan Hale - 14.90%

1. Kratos - 50.00%
2. Donkey Kong - 40.80%
3. Marth - 33.97%
4. Prince of All Cosmos - 22.36%

1. Solid Snake - 50.00%
2. Nightmare - 27.96%
3. Vyse - 15.36%
4. Rayman - 13.65%

1. Ryu Hayabusa - 50.00%
2. Riku - 37.29%
3. Roxas - 27.84%
4. Haseo - 16.86%

1. Squall Leonhart - 50.00%
2. Aeris Gainsborough - 41.89%
3. Akuma - 39.48%
4. Geno - 31.36%

1. Sora - 50.00%
2. Lara Croft - 38.16%
3. Albert Wesker - 36.55%
4. Daxter - 16.32%

1. Duke Nukem - 50.00%
2. Gordon Freeman - 49.49%
3. Ike - 48.80%
4. Guybrush Threepwood - 27.58%

1. Sonic the Hedgehog - 50.00%
2. Sub-Zero - 45.35%
3. Prince of Persia - 31.20%
4. Viewtiful Joe - 19.33%

---
The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 33: Mega Man > Knuckles Points: 95/128
JustForFun1988 | Posted 10/5/2007 6:36:45 AM | message detail
1. Magus - 50.00%
2. Phoenix Wright - 43.70%
3. Bomberman - 43.64%
4. Crash Bandicoot - 40.79%


I know this format can't constitute anything that is conclusively related to 1 vs 1, but still Magus went from the strongest NN9 in 2002 to just breaking 56% on Phoenix wright. Quite saddening.
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Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu. Alt Account of someone who is lame and stupid
Warsola | Posted 10/5/2007 6:40:07 AM | message detail
1. Sonic the Hedgehog - 50.00%
2. Sub-Zero - 45.35%


wtfFightingGameBoost
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And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes!
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