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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 510

UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/4/2007 9:08:48 PM | message detail
Knuckles is so screwed.



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19


*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/


*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html


*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm


*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones!
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php


*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 10 Lists:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2002stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2003stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/july2006stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2006stats.htm

RPguy's Hourly Poll Updates:
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/contest.html

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://adamrose.mit.edu/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/top10

Manual Poll Updater:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php



~*ST*~
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/4/2007 9:10:22 PM | message detail
Mega Man is a BEAST
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Masa/Hiko/HeroicTronBonne/Cory/Buddha
swirIdude | Posted 10/4/2007 9:10:35 PM | message detail
I hate this topic
---
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
Gaddswell | Posted 10/4/2007 9:15:26 PM | message detail
Go for 3rd KOS-MOS!
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Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/4/2007 9:25:51 PM | message detail
aw yeah yoshi
---
Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 96/128; Oracle - 18th
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2007 9:26:12 PM | message detail
It's still pretty early in the match, but I wonder if this could turn out to be the first indication that SFF can, indeed, beat out LFF and benefit the stronger character?

Well, unlike typical situations, this SFF theoretically involves the majority of the strength in this match (y'know, like actual contest matches) and there's a decisive favorite. I mean, the odd man (girl) out is KOS-MOS...
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/4/2007 9:26:28 PM | message detail
KOS STALLS!
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Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__
Warsola | Posted 10/4/2007 9:26:39 PM | message detail
Where have all the good men gone
And where are all the gods?
Where’s the street-wise Hercules
To fight the rising odds?

Isn’t there a white knight upon a fiery steed?
Late at night I toss and I turn and I dream of what I need

I need a hero
I'm holding out for at hero 'till the end of the night
He's gotta be strong
And he's gotta be fast
And he's gotta be fresh from the fight

I need a hero
I’m holding out for a hero 'till the morning light
He’s gotta be sure
And it’s gotta be soon
And he’s gotta be larger than life
Larger than life

Doo doo doo doooo
Doo doo doo doooo
Doo doo doo doooo
Aaahhh
Aaahhh

Somewhere after midnight
In my wildest fantasy
Somewhere just beyond my reach
There’s someone reaching back for me

Racing on the thunder and rising with the heat
It’s gonna take a superman to sweep me off my feet

I need a hero
I'm holding out for a hero 'till the end of the night
He's gotta be strong
And he's gotta be fast
And he's gotta be fresh from the fight

I need a hero
I’m holding out for a hero 'till the morning light
He’s gotta be sure
And it’s gotta be soon
And he’s gotta be larger than life

I need a hero
I'm holding out for at hero 'till the the end of the night

Up where the mountains meet the heavens above
Out where the lightning splits the sea
I could swear there is someone somewhere
Watching me

Through the wind and the chill and the rain
And the storm and the flood
I can feel his approach
Like a fire in my blood

I need a hero
I'm holding out for a hero 'till the end of the night
He’s gotta be strong
And he's gotta be fast
And he's gotta be fresh from the fight

I need a hero
I'm holding out for a hero 'till the morning light
He's gotta be sure
And it's gotta be soon
And he's gotta be larger than life

I need a hero
I'm holding out for a hero 'till the end of the night
He's gotta be strong
And he's gotta be fast
And he's gotta be fresh from the fight

I need a hero
I'm holding out for a hero 'till the morning light
He's gotta be sure
And he's gotta be soon
And he's gotta be larger than life

I need a hero
I'm holding out for a hero 'till the end of the night
---
And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes!
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/4/2007 9:26:43 PM | message detail
Looks like I was right. People still aren't impressed by Mega Man. This is all SFF/LFF and stuff, of course. >_>
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/4/2007 9:26:44 PM | message detail
Gahhh. I mean, I should be happy, my bracket gets the points. But lord, Knuckles, this is terrible.

When am I going to get a new contest hero, here, seriously.


Plenty of room on the Zero bandwagon!

aww yeah

TuRtLe
~~~
101/128 in the contest. Next pick: Mega Man > Knuckles
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ZFS | Posted 10/4/2007 9:27:11 PM | message detail
aww yeah kos-mos stalling and cutting

(why am i rooting for xenosaga)

---
let's mosey
swirIdude | Posted 10/4/2007 9:27:20 PM | message detail
aww no
---
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
DpObliVion | Posted 10/4/2007 9:27:30 PM | message detail
Well, this match is boring. So....

What happens in the Master Chief/Yuna/Liquid Snake/Alucard match?

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket *LETS GO KNUX!*
wavedash101 | Posted 10/4/2007 9:27:51 PM | message detail
Sakurai said if more third parties got in, it would only amount to 2-3 including Snake...obviously this could be different a year later...there could be no new 3rd parties or there could be 4+ or whatever

If anyone else is in I expect them to be revealed before the launch for marketing and hype purposes but not until after Smash is first shown playable, which is next week i believe

---
Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash! [no u cru]
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/4/2007 9:27:59 PM | message detail
Guys, what the hell were we thinking? We forgot one very fundamental rule to these contests when we took Knuckles to win here.

This is the second round people

God, how could we have been so naive.

TuRtLe
~~~
101/128 in the contest. Next pick: Mega Man > Knuckles
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2007 9:28:29 PM | message detail
Looks like I was right. People still aren't impressed by Mega Man. This is all SFF/LFF and stuff, of course. >_>

I've already said that despite any SFF here, Mega is still impressing here. Still, there's a long way between that and upending Samus (and... *sigh* Sephiroth *sigh*)
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/4/2007 9:29:05 PM | message detail
If there wasn't LFF here, KOS-MOS would be under 10%. The only reason it seem to be helping MM is because 2 of his opponents are suffering while the third is really weak.

You *still* don't get it? Let me spell it out for you *again* - the stronger character (Mega Man) gains more percentage through SFF than he loses via LFF. Both factors are present, both hurt the weaker character(s), but, for the stronger character, SFF outdoes LFF and the result is a net benefit.

I'm not entirely convinced that this is an example of it - Yoshi and Knuckles have good reasons to go up and Mega Man to go down before the day is up - but if we don't get it here I have a feeling that we'll see it in Link/Vincent/Zelda/Bidoof.
---
Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/4/2007 9:29:20 PM | message detail
aww yeah

kh on the mm > sephy bandwagon

Alert the Sephy fanboys (that means you ExTha)

TuRtLe
~~~
101/128 in the contest. Next pick: Mega Man > Knuckles
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
transience | Posted 10/4/2007 9:29:38 PM | message detail
Well, unlike typical situations, this SFF theoretically involves the majority of the strength in this match (y'know, like actual contest matches) and there's a decisive favorite. I mean, the odd man (girl) out is KOS-MOS...

this. and no matter how bad Sonic characters have looked, I point to KOS-MOS potentially taking the lead overnight from Knuckles as evidence.
---
ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/4/2007 9:29:47 PM | message detail
You know, BT is right. Knuckles getting out of the second round? About as likely as CATS winning in the first round.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
Gaddswell | Posted 10/4/2007 9:31:16 PM | message detail
KNWITSR

(Knuckles Never Wins In The Second Round)
---
Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__
paraboxx | Posted 10/4/2007 9:31:30 PM | message detail
Heh, I just closed a topic without even trying. (Not that I've ever tried to before, or anything....)

Also - is it okay to say "what the hell, Knux" yet? Is that...is that reasonable...?
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/4/2007 9:31:32 PM | message detail
Well, unlike typical situations, this SFF theoretically involves the majority of the strength in this match (y'know, like actual contest matches) and there's a decisive favorite. I mean, the odd man (girl) out is KOS-MOS...

That's a decent point. I'm not sure if that helps or hurts leeching, but it probably increases gains due to SFF.
---
Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
JustForFun1988 | Posted 10/4/2007 9:32:07 PM | message detail
I am jumping on the mm > sephy bandwagon but regarding about the Zero > Crono/Vincent bandwagon,

No thanks.
---
Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu. Alt Account of someone who is lame and stupid
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/4/2007 9:32:40 PM | message detail
You *still* don't get it? Let me spell it out for you *again* - the stronger character (Mega Man) gains more percentage through SFF than he loses via LFF. Both factors are present, both hurt the weaker character(s), but, for the stronger character, SFF outdoes LFF and the result is a net benefit.

lol ryu h/riku/roxas?

Like, are you that deluded? Look at all the SFF matches in the first round, and how they resulted in weaker, unrelated characters impressing. CATS, Ryu, Ryu H and Haseo, Kratos, Big Boss, potentially The Boss, Ammastastasru and Danta.

TuRtLe
~~~
101/128 in the contest. Next pick: Mega Man > Knuckles
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
transience | Posted 10/4/2007 9:33:45 PM | message detail
mm > sephiroth? are you guys serious or just hopeful?

Mega Man has a good chance at Samus and always has. this match doesn't really change anything there.
---
ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/4/2007 9:34:59 PM | message detail
I think the MM > Sephy thing was something I started, which heavily depends on my Link/MM =/= SFF theory

TuRtLe
~~~
101/128 in the contest. Next pick: Mega Man > Knuckles
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
wavedash101 | Posted 10/4/2007 9:35:37 PM | message detail
lol lead for 2nd bigger than lead for first

---
Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash! [no u cru]
ZFS | Posted 10/4/2007 9:36:15 PM | message detail
this mm > sephiroth stuff is making me want to kick someone in the fundament do not want

---
let's mosey
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/4/2007 9:36:58 PM | message detail
lol ryu h/riku/roxas?

Obviously, Riku had bigger problems than Roxas. He's flat out weaker than Hayabusa, I think it's very hard to draw any other conclusions.

Like, are you that deluded? Look at all the SFF matches in the first round, and how they resulted in weaker, unrelated characters impressing. CATS, Ryu, Ryu H and Haseo, Kratos, Big Boss, potentially The Boss, Ammastastasru and Danta.

*sigh*

Almost unequivocally, the weaker character is hurt by both SFF and LFF and should look terrible no matter what the proportion is. Is that so hard to understand? The point is that the stronger character might benefit, depending on what exactly the split is (like, say, Rikku almost beating Knuckles). The weaker character looks bad. Period. The strong character *might* look better.
---
Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
Keno316 | Posted 10/4/2007 9:37:06 PM | message detail
this mm > sephiroth stuff is making me want to kick someone in the fundament do not want


Goes back to your days of Mario > Sephy, huh?
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/4/2007 9:37:09 PM | message detail
ARGATH
---
Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 96/128; Oracle - 18th
BesaidGuy | Posted 10/4/2007 9:38:19 PM | message detail
Wait till Yoshi's day vote. If he can keep this match under 1500 for the night who knows. It most likely won't happen, but if Yoshi is ANYWHERE close by tomorrow afternoon we could see some shenanigans.


Also, LOL Knux, LOL Sonic in general, LOL Smurf.
---
FuturamandFFX/TheRealoSix
AndyManCan's favorite user
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/4/2007 9:39:25 PM | message detail
The stronger character looks better in relation to the weakened SFF character, but unrelated characters are unaffected and look stronger in relation than they should. Once again, look at Ryu's match. SFF matches have low votals for a reason. In 1 on 1 matches, it doesn't matter since people who are decisively not in that fanbase have to abstain. But in this format, there are other options, meaning that SFF hurts both characters in relation to non-SFF'd characters.

TuRtLe
~~~
101/128 in the contest. Next pick: Mega Man > Knuckles
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ZFS | Posted 10/4/2007 9:40:03 PM | message detail
Goes back to your days of Mario > Sephy, huh?

I blame tran!

---
let's mosey
transience | Posted 10/4/2007 9:40:21 PM | message detail
ARGATH

brb fftpsp

Goes back to your days of Mario > Sephy, huh?

they're really not comparable - Mario's always been stronger than Mega Man.. well, since 2k5 anyways. Sephiroth has Magus in the poll. it's... possible.

MM > Sephiroth? I wish, but there's utterly no chance there.
---
ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/4/2007 9:40:37 PM | message detail
The match is over 1000 already, and Mega Man's a steady character as opposed to Yoshi and Knuckles being very day reliant. Mega Man gained on Sonic all night before losing the lead in the morning, then coming back with the evening/second night vote.

TuRtLe
~~~
101/128 in the contest. Next pick: Mega Man > Knuckles
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Haste_2 | Posted 10/4/2007 9:41:26 PM | message detail
Personally, I think LFF will only cause the stronger character in the SFF match (and assuming he SFFs the other) to have an inflated percentage is if the competition outside of that fanbase is weak.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/4/2007 9:41:41 PM | message detail
If Solid Snake can do it, why not Mega Man? Snake had to deal with both Link/Smash boost SFF and FF7/MGS SFF, whereas MM only has to deal with potential Link/MM SFF

TuRtLe
~~~
101/128 in the contest. Next pick: Mega Man > Knuckles
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ZFS | Posted 10/4/2007 9:42:15 PM | message detail
If Solid Snake can do it, why not Mega Man? Snake had to deal with both Link/Smash boost SFF and FF7/MGS SFF, whereas MM only has to deal with potential Link/MM SFF

THAT IS THE WORST COMPARISON I HAVE EVER HEARD STOP IT

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let's mosey
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/4/2007 9:42:29 PM | message detail
Like I said though, take MM''s, Yoshi's and Knuckles' legitimate strengths, remove any SFF, and KOSY here fails to break 10%

TuRtLe
~~~
101/128 in the contest. Next pick: Mega Man > Knuckles
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/4/2007 9:42:32 PM | message detail
And Bowser obviously didn't SFF Mewtwo at all and probably didn't hit Toad very much, so his LFF losses handily outweighed any SFF gains and he got demolished by Ryu. I am *not* suggesting that SFF beats LFF in any match where the two are present, I'm suggesting that it *can* happen.
---
Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
wavedash101 | Posted 10/4/2007 9:42:58 PM | message detail
woah what the heck are you saying
---
Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash! [no u cru]
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/4/2007 9:44:20 PM | message detail
LFF IS SFF JUST GIVEN A POINTLESS NAME!

I think what will illustrate my point more than anything else will be how awesome Vincent looks in his match this round. Link has both Zelda and Bidoof splitting his support, I wouldn't be surprised if Vincent comes to within 5% of Link there.

TuRtLe
~~~
101/128 in the contest. Next pick: Mega Man > Knuckles
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/4/2007 9:44:52 PM | message detail
LFF IS SFF JUST GIVEN A POINTLESS NAME!

And that is where you are completely wrong.
---
Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
transience | Posted 10/4/2007 9:45:12 PM | message detail
If Solid Snake can do it, why not Mega Man? Snake had to deal with both Link/Smash boost SFF and FF7/MGS SFF, whereas MM only has to deal with potential Link/MM SFF

wait what

what

what in the ARGATH did i just read
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/4/2007 9:46:52 PM | message detail
You're looking at it as if:

"Character A B C and D all have a slice of pie worth 25%. Character A is Link, and B is Zelda. Link steals 20% from Zelda and adds it to his own"

Whereas it's more like:

"Same situation, except Link and Zelda combine their pie to make 50%, but lose some crumbs as they jam the pieces together. Link gets a larger slice of the pie, but they both lose a little bit"

TuRtLe
~~~
101/128 in the contest. Next pick: Mega Man > Knuckles
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/4/2007 9:47:53 PM | message detail
You might try reading comprehension. I'm told it's a good thing.
---
Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/4/2007 9:48:08 PM | message detail
Okay, so I take it tranny is one of those people that thinks Samus/Snake was legit last year.

TuRtLe
~~~
101/128 in the contest. Next pick: Mega Man > Knuckles
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/4/2007 9:49:08 PM | message detail
What kind of pie are we talking about here.
---
Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 96/128; Oracle - 18th
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