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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 509

UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/3/2007 9:55:54 PM | message detail
Blargh.



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19


*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/


*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html


*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm


*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones!
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php


*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 10 Lists:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2002stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2003stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/july2006stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2006stats.htm

RPguy's Hourly Poll Updates:
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/contest.html

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://adamrose.mit.edu/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/top10

Manual Poll Updater:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php



~*ST*~
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/3/2007 9:58:31 PM | message detail
Sub Zero > Duke Nukem
---
Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 92/124; Oracle - 19th
swirIdude | Posted 10/3/2007 10:09:35 PM | message detail
I have a Winners and Losers of Round 1 message ready to go...but I think I'm going to wait until later on in the day in case this match changes.
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http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/3/2007 10:15:18 PM | message detail
So now Sonic is dominating(compared to before) the night vote? This contest makes no sense!
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Demyx is better than Axel.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/3/2007 10:15:20 PM | message detail
when was the last time ulti made an actual post in the stats topic?
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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/3/2007 10:15:48 PM | message detail
So.... Sub-Zero wins the NPH, and Sonic increases with the night vote?

What the crap?

TuRtLe
~~~
97/1240 in the contest. Next pick: Snoic > Sub-Zero
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
HaRRicH | Posted 10/3/2007 10:16:35 PM | message detail
Good question.


On topic, Sub-Zero is tearing **** up. Midna losing to Scorpion doesn't look nearly as bad right now, ha.
---
PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
transience | Posted 10/3/2007 10:17:32 PM | message detail
I've stood firm on my Midna > Ness pick for a reason! I thought that was more Scorpion than Midna, though Midna obviously disappointed.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
swirIdude | Posted 10/3/2007 10:18:10 PM | message detail
I do believe this performance has cemented the Turd of the Round award.
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http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/3/2007 10:18:41 PM | message detail
I don't know how Midna's loss looked bad before, and not now. Either you want to believe Subby and Scorp are connected, or you don't. We already knew he had pretty decent strength, so I'm not really sure why Midna keeps getting brought up.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/3/2007 10:19:06 PM | message detail
Now way can Sub be THIS strong.....


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Hi
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/3/2007 10:21:16 PM | message detail
Either you want to believe Subby and Scorp are connected, or you don't.

Who wouldn't? They're more connected than Mario and Luigi.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ZFS | Posted 10/3/2007 10:21:27 PM | message detail
So.... Sub-Zero wins the NPH, and Sonic increases with the night vote?

Sub-Zero day vote comeback imminent.

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let's mosey
Lopen | Posted 10/3/2007 10:22:10 PM | message detail
What, are you implying Sonic is the turd of the round...? He's not doing that poorly, really. Just look at PoP with respect to these guys. Sub-Zero is just a pimp.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
swirIdude | Posted 10/3/2007 10:23:41 PM | message detail
What, are you implying Sonic is the turd of the round...?

Actually I was implying that Midna is off the hook for her loss to Scorpion, but go ahead and believe that. It's right on par with the rest of LopenWorld!

*buys tickets*
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http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
Big Bob | Posted 10/3/2007 10:23:51 PM | message detail
I don't find anything wrong with Sonic's performance at all. Sub-Zero's pretty strong, and Prince probably isn't a slouch. And besides, this is Sonic's worst time anyway.
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Old-fashioned uniform?
Turn-off, ain't it?
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/3/2007 10:24:02 PM | message detail
The only way I'll feel better about this match is if Sonic and PoP take off in the day, with Sonic going over 40% and PoP going above 18%

TuRtLe
~~~
97/1240 in the contest. Next pick: Snoic > Sub-Zero
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lopen | Posted 10/3/2007 10:28:53 PM | message detail
Psh. It just seemed so foolish to consider Midna for it in the first place I automatically gave you more credit than that!
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
swirIdude | Posted 10/3/2007 10:31:49 PM | message detail
Pfft. When I pick her to win in my bracket and she fails to meet my expectations, of course I'd consider her!
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http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
Lopen | Posted 10/3/2007 10:32:42 PM | message detail
Well maybe if you took more trips to LopenWorld you wouldn't have had those expectations in the first place!
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Janus5000 | Posted 10/3/2007 10:32:58 PM | message detail
Star of the Round: Guybrush's night vote
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
swirIdude | Posted 10/3/2007 10:33:40 PM | message detail
Star of the Round: Phoenix's night vote
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http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
Lopen | Posted 10/3/2007 10:34:56 PM | message detail
Star of the Round: Master Chief's day vote. Duh.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
JustForFun1988 | Posted 10/3/2007 10:45:39 PM | message detail
With this kind of performance, i think Sub-Zero should be able to win against Squall in round 3 due to Square SFF. (Assuming Sora or Aeris get second in round 2 instead of Lara)
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Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu. Alt Account of someone who is lame and stupid
HaRRicH | Posted 10/3/2007 10:50:10 PM | message detail
Sonic's not disappointing? Sorry, but Sonic's currently getting over 8% less than any other Noble Niner has so far and he's not going to make all of that up. We've also seen Knuckles barely beat Rikku, Shadow disappoint against Auron after getting his own game, and Tails losing to The Boss...all signs of Sonic characters failing our expectations. This isn't Noble Nine material to me.

Now, granted, Sonic's match probably has the most stacked opponents and Sonic should look a lot better by the end of the match...but I still have a hard time thinking this is what makes up a Noble Niner; I'll reevaluate at the end of the match. Last year's stats say Subby should have gotten 36.15% on Sonic...and right now, when coupled with PoP (expected 29.13% on Sonic last year) and VJ (29.25% on Sonic in 2k4 plus VJ2 since then), Subby's got 34.04%. Having seen Sonic constantly get one-seeds while Sub-Zero needed the NRT last year to get a seven-seed, it's hard to think Subby's got more big-time fans than Sonic too. We've seen MK's two main ninjas kick ass so far this format, but if this match doesn't change much then I will ignore even that -- this is more than just Subby if Sonic doesn't change this dramatically.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
Keno316 | Posted 10/3/2007 10:57:04 PM | message detail
And another Subby Cut!


Heh...yeah...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/3/2007 10:57:19 PM | message detail
Go Subby go Subby go.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 92/124; Oracle - 19th
swirIdude | Posted 10/3/2007 10:59:41 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero has this one in hand.
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http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/3/2007 11:00:51 PM | message detail
Flop the Hedgehog.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 92/124; Oracle - 19th
Keno316 | Posted 10/3/2007 11:01:03 PM | message detail
EPIC CUT followed by an EPIC STALL!!!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/3/2007 11:01:12 PM | message detail
If Sonic really rocks the day, he can still finish where many people predicted (42%ish). However, that doesn't change the fact that Sub-Zero is outperforming all expectations by a good 5%+. If Master Chief is even stronger than Subby in this format, and if Halo 3 has given him any sort of boost, Sonic may have to rely on Snake pwning Chief to make it to the finals.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 10/3/2007 11:01:28 PM | message detail
epic stall aw yeah
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
JonPen1416 | Posted 10/3/2007 11:01:43 PM | message detail
This is the second time Sub-Zero was in the last match of the round, and the second time he impressed in said match. Maybe he just dominates the Last Match of the Round factor that helped Master Hand and Pac-Man. <_<
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"Even beasts know when to give up." ~Raphael Sorel
voltch | Posted 10/3/2007 11:02:13 PM | message detail
sonic and megaman,blue just isn't the color in vogue at the moment.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/3/2007 11:02:27 PM | message detail
Subby STALL
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Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__
HaRRicH | Posted 10/3/2007 11:02:57 PM | message detail
Now, having complained about all that...if this is actually ALL Subby (and, really, even if it isn't), he has a chance to make a great upset happen. Subby > Sonic shouldn't ever happen, but there's a distinct possibility that he could beat whichever two of Squall/Aeris/Sora for second in the third round.
---
PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
HaRRicH | Posted 10/3/2007 11:05:34 PM | message detail
Before the contest, I never expected any NN'er to fall below 45%. Expectations have changed now that we've seen practically all of the first round, but 42% would still be disappointing to me and makes me fear for him reaching the championship.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
transience | Posted 10/3/2007 11:06:56 PM | message detail
VOLTCH WHY DO YOU POST STUFF LIKE THIS AHHHHHHH
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
transience | Posted 10/3/2007 11:07:10 PM | message detail
VOLTCH'D
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
ZFS | Posted 10/3/2007 11:07:51 PM | message detail
sonic and megaman,blue just isn't the color in vogue at the moment.

i love you

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let's mosey
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/3/2007 11:08:34 PM | message detail
It's also possible that Prince is just handing Sub-Zero percentage, thereby giving us an inaccurate reading of them both. Kirby got 61.70% against Prince last year. Call me crazy, but I can easily see someone like Sub-Zero matching or surpassing that.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/3/2007 11:09:11 PM | message detail
Voltch, when are we going to get Disney Contest IV? Ariel needs to defend her crown!
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 10/3/2007 11:09:41 PM | message detail
I've been discussing Sub/Kirby with KH - I'd take Sub-Zero. Sub-Zero > Zero too.. maybe. I have a lot of faith in Sub-Zero (and always have!). shame I didn't pull the trigger on Sub-Zero to round 4, but who knew the leeching would do so much damage?
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/3/2007 11:09:55 PM | message detail
Thing is, assuming Sub-Zero is actually being *helped* rather than hurt by PoP (dubious in itself), it's not exactly assured that Kirby wins against Subby in a match...
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/3/2007 11:10:10 PM | message detail
I'd take Sub-Zero to easily best Prince on Kirby.

If I was feeling particularly frisky, I'd even say Subby gives Kirby a run for his money.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 92/124; Oracle - 19th
HaRRicH | Posted 10/3/2007 11:10:58 PM | message detail
Took over two hours for Sonic to get a 1,000-vote lead on Sub-Zero...ha. Impressive.

Speaking of impressive, yesterday Ike did two things: he was the character who had the highest percentage yet didn't advance (28.76%, second place being Rikku's 27.14%) and managed the most votes for a Nintendo character that didn't advance (37,086, second place being Mewtwo's 34,197). Granted, there is a huge difference between getting third place to Yoshi/Knuckles or Ryu/Bowser compared to Duke/Gordon, but those are still nice numbers for somebody thriving off of FE and "minimal" SSBB-hype.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/3/2007 11:11:50 PM | message detail
Hmm... I certainly wouldn't take Sub-Zero over Kirby (or any of those Nintendo guys that clog up the upper midcard, really). I'd actually like to see him against Chief again, especially if those last little bits of Halo hate are starting to dissipate.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
HaRRicH | Posted 10/3/2007 11:13:29 PM | message detail
Kirby
Kratos
Sub-Zero
Zero


Go.

I didn't even mean to put them in alphabetical order !!
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/3/2007 11:13:41 PM | message detail
Thing is, assuming Sub-Zero is actually being *helped* rather than hurt by PoP (dubious in itself), it's not exactly assured that Kirby wins against Subby in a match...

Yeah, that's one of the weird things about this contest. It's really more of a gut call than anything.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
wavedash101 | Posted 10/3/2007 11:14:09 PM | message detail
Subby needs to pull more "match on day of game release" antics

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash! [no u cru]
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