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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 507

XIII_rocks | Posted 10/3/2007 5:14:47 AM | message detail
XD

Freeman gains another 47 on Ike and cuts Nukem
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Draco1214 | Posted 10/3/2007 5:16:58 AM | message detail
Looks like we're back into night vote trends, and right on time.

Just hold on, Ike...
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Currently Playing: Wild Arms 3, Persona 3
transience | Posted 10/3/2007 5:18:42 AM | message detail
the three-way potential of this match is crazy. if Ike gets 32% updates with the high vote totals of the afterschool vote.. he could probably make up a good 1500 votes. I don't know, somebody could do the math with yesterday's vote totals and compare them to that 6-8am hour if they wanted a rough estimate.

but if we're looking at regular 40-50 vote updates in Duke/Gordon's favour for the next six hours, it's not going to matter.

the
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/3/2007 5:19:09 AM | message detail
the
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
transience | Posted 10/3/2007 5:22:05 AM | message detail
whoa

what the
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/3/2007 5:22:57 AM | message detail
From transience Posted 10/3/2007 8:22:05 AM #355
what the

the the in your second last post.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/3/2007 5:27:43 AM | message detail
Gordon doing pretty well here. Perhaps HE will be the one to take advantage of this time.

I just know that this comment will be followed up by a Nukem gain
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
transience | Posted 10/3/2007 5:33:03 AM | message detail
damn you
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/3/2007 5:33:34 AM | message detail
Guys

Nukem has activated a 392 vote barrier.
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Childproof | Posted 10/3/2007 5:37:29 AM | message detail
0_o
What's going on right now? All 4 characters are getting the morning vote?
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*warned grapefruitking*
Oracle prediction: Gordie 35.39% - Ike Broflovski 28.50% - Milk 26.05% - Some Guy's Brush 10.06%
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/3/2007 5:37:43 AM | message detail
Now...in british time, this is the 13:37 update.

Surely it means MAJOR FREEMAN OWNAGE COME ON


...

No
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/3/2007 5:38:51 AM | message detail
Ugh. For a match this close it's kind of boringly consistent
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Childproof | Posted 10/3/2007 5:44:00 AM | message detail
Damnit Duke
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*warned grapefruitking*
Oracle prediction: Gordie 35.39% - Ike Broflovski 28.50% - Milk 26.05% - Some Guy's Brush 10.06%
Radix | Posted 10/3/2007 5:46:30 AM | message detail
So I wake up to find Gordon Freeman losing. Somehow I'm surprised by this :/
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"You're nothing more than lowly cookie dough! Yet you would dare defy me!?"
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/3/2007 5:54:18 AM | message detail
I don't have any clue why people were saying Ike drawing power from the SSBB site meant he wasn't gonna do anything in the day - but that him drawing from Fire Emblem would. Putting aside the fact that I'm *still* not giving Fire Emblem's Series Contest performance any credit, how does that even make sense? Smash = Day. The fact that Ike's only on the site doesn't mean much, it's not like casuals don't check it regularly, *especially* here. And of course, the day vote is not only a 'casual' demographic. It's a more Nintendo/SSBB-friendly demographic in general.

That all being said, he still seems a big underdog here. Though if he doesn't let these guys run away with it before the afterschool vote he could definitely place, assuming it hits him like the morning did...
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/3/2007 5:54:53 AM | message detail
Either Freeman take first or Ike take second. I don't want to finish with an odd number bracket.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 31: Gordon Freeman > Ike Points: 90/120
Warsola | Posted 10/3/2007 5:57:03 AM | message detail
After some of the comebacks we've had, I'd take Duke > Ike as the favorite right now by a tiny bit.
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And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes!
Childproof | Posted 10/3/2007 5:59:06 AM | message detail
and Gordon cuts the lead.... somehow
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*warned grapefruitking*
Oracle prediction: Gordie 35.39% - Ike Broflovski 28.50% - Milk 26.05% - Some Guy's Brush 10.06%
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/3/2007 6:02:14 AM | message detail
We all know nerds like Freeman own the school vote lolz
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/3/2007 6:08:54 AM | message detail
RIP Gordon, your loss is official
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Who Cares? | Posted 10/3/2007 6:09:35 AM | message detail
Hmm, as one of the few crazy enough to take Ike > Gordon (HOORAY overestimating Smash Brothers) I have to hope either Ike makes a big move with the afterschool vote or Duke holds on to first. Bleh, hard for me to get excited for this match other than that...Blast you Gordon for ruining GFNW last year! *shakes fist*
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Current Points: 93
Maximum Possible Points: 741/768
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/3/2007 6:16:14 AM | message detail
Lead over 500 for the first time. Uh-oh...were has this recent Nukem resurgence exploded from?
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/3/2007 6:22:41 AM | message detail
Now it's back to where it was before. Geez make up your mind guys
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/3/2007 6:35:45 AM | message detail
518 is the new peak lead; this has been very close W2W in the first 9 and a half hours.
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Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/3/2007 6:39:23 AM | message detail
tag KB
Master Moltar | Posted 10/3/2007 6:39:42 AM | message detail
So Guybrush dominated the night?

That's great, but doesn't answer who takes the day. Ike started to look good, but fell back into collapse mode right after the "aww yeah Going to school" vote. Gordon and Duke are going about even, but it looks like overall, Gordon slightly > Duke in the morning (what).
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Duke/Ike/Gordon/Guybrush - Bracket: Gordon > Duke - Vote: Duke (101/120)
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/3/2007 6:40:32 AM | message detail
In fact, yep - if the lead between Duke and Gordon dosn't go above 530-ish, it'll be the closest match W2W so far (I think Boss/Tails is the second)
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/3/2007 6:59:01 AM | message detail
Just 40 minutes ago the lead was the highest it ever was. Now it's the lowest
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/3/2007 6:59:30 AM | message detail
Well, the lowest since it got to 400 of course
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/3/2007 7:02:16 AM | message detail
The closest W2W match in this contest so far is Diablo/Arthas, the biggest lead was at 631.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 31: Gordon Freeman > Ike Points: 90/120
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/3/2007 7:04:13 AM | message detail
Time .| Milkem .| Ike ........| Failman | The GT
01:00 | 30.60% | 28.82% | 30.07% | 10.50%
02:00 | 31.47% | 26.65% | 29.90% | 11.98%
03:00 | 32.07% | 24.87% | 30.36% | 12.71%
04:00 | 30.75% | 25.36% | 28.40% | 15.49%
05:00 | 29.68% | 24.16% | 27.26% | 18.90%
06:00 | 30.17% | 24.12% | 29.00% | 16.72%
07:00 | 27.13% | 31.93% | 27.78% | 13.17%
08:00 | 28.71% | 30.17% | 28.24% | 12.88%
09:00 | 30.12% | 27.60% | 29.13% | 13.15%
10:00 | 29.14% | 26.71% | 30.70% | 13.45%

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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/3/2007 7:04:55 AM | message detail
The closest W2W match in this contest so far is Diablo/Arthas, the biggest lead was at 631.

Damn, that's the one. Jesus, I went through all the matches on gamefaqscontests.com to check that, you'd think I'd remember...
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/3/2007 7:11:59 AM | message detail
At least Freeman went relatively even with Duke during those two morning hours. Of course, if that's just a taste of what Ike has waiting for these guys, it'll could all just be a battle for second place. I'm hoping for a lead of a good 1500.
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/3/2007 7:21:21 AM | message detail
Ike's getting killed. And Gordon and Duke are trading off some weird updates. One hour Duke does well, then the next hour Gordon does well.
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SC2k7: 53/76, tied for 1402nd
Today's Pick: Ness > Liquid Snake
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/3/2007 7:32:15 AM | message detail
After doing some quick calculations I don't think Ike has a shot anymore. He only took off 150 votes in 18 updates this morning. That's only a gain of 8 per update. Now if you doubled that to account for votals increase, and times it by 72 updates (6 hour ASV) that's only a 1200 vote cut.

Of course Ike could just blow away his piss poor morning vote with a great ASV so who knows.
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SC2k7: 53/76, tied for 1402nd
Today's Pick: Ness > Liquid Snake
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/3/2007 7:38:56 AM | message detail
Y'know, until that last update (xx:37), Gordon and Duke had been going back and forth in 45 minute installments. Creepy.
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consolefreak | Posted 10/3/2007 7:44:31 AM | message detail
Yeah I think it's over for Ike. It's not like the ASV is right around the corner. This one's between Duke and Gordon, I'd say. And between those 2, anything can still happen.

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91/116. Today : Sora > Lara. Tomorrow : Gordon > Ike
*One_Winged_Ange*
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/3/2007 7:53:44 AM | message detail
The match is nearly on pace for 130,000 votes. Weird, I would have figured such a fodderific match would have had one of the lowest vote totals
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/3/2007 7:56:24 AM | message detail
Ike showing the same trends of Axel (other than the board vote)? Good stuff.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/3/2007 8:02:00 AM | message detail
Hmm, a six minute update...I wonder if Duke would have beaten Gordon in that one had it been five minutes. OH WELL WE'LL NEVER KNOW. NEXT UPDATE PLZ.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/3/2007 8:14:01 AM | message detail
New record high for the lead. Only this time... GORDON WON'T BE COMING BACK
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Childproof | Posted 10/3/2007 8:19:29 AM | message detail
Damnit, Guybrush. Stop making me regret switching you from 12.56% to 10.06% at the last minute
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*warned grapefruitking*
Oracle prediction: Gordie 35.39% - Ike Broflovski 28.50% - Milk 26.05% - Some Guy's Brush 10.06%
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/3/2007 8:27:49 AM | message detail
Ah, if only Ike could hold on a little better...I think he'll make a push with the afterschool vote, but it looks like he'll be down at least 2000 and that's too much to ask.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/3/2007 8:28:39 AM | message detail
Dammit, Freeman is being pathetic again. Up to 596, even Ike cut Freeman that time.

Dammit, Gordon, what happened.
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/3/2007 8:39:27 AM | message detail
Duke just dropped big time there.

I think Gordon will have a slight edge with the ASV over Duke so I'd say he's still in this.
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SC2k7: 53/76, tied for 1402nd
Today's Pick: Ness > Liquid Snake
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/3/2007 8:44:58 AM | message detail
Ike will be down about 1500 with nearly three hours before the after school vote kicks in. I'd say he's done, but Gordon better hope Ike disappoints. I doubt Duke will be giving away enough percentage for both other guys to mount decent comebacks.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/3/2007 8:55:54 AM | message detail
Good to see I was right in calling Ike a piece of trash. Shame I didn't think Duke had it in him to win this. Oh well, even with 2 points, I'll still be beating out a good chunk of the guru brackets ahead of me.

TuRtLe
~~~
95/120 in the contest. Next pick: Gordon > Duke
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Xuxon | Posted 10/3/2007 9:00:14 AM | message detail
Don't forget Guybrush has a few percentage left to give away!

Duke 27%
Gordon 28.5%
Ike 33%
Guybrush 11.5%

That would be great IMO.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/3/2007 9:01:06 AM | message detail
Personally, Ike and Duke are both doing better than I though they would...especially Ike. I had a difficult time fathoming him to break 25%...ever. Not bad at all for him...but he's still losing to Duke and Gordon simultaneously, so that doesn't mean it's particularly good either.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/3/2007 9:02:25 AM | message detail
For a guy who has nothing but one cult RPG under his belt, I wouldn't call this bad. Heck, he's slaughtering another guy from a series of cult RPG games in the same poll.
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