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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 506

Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/2/2007 10:48:34 AM | message detail
Mega Man > Yoshi: 65%
-Could go either way. Knuckles might have LFF as well as SFF to help him here, which would be a bonus.

Samus > Scorpion: 95%
-Yeah, Frog stands no chance. I just gave him 5% because of teh cheating.

Cloud > Marcus: 80%
-Xbox's strength has been amazing, and Ocelot barely beat Jill (and is weaker than Kefka?). Overlap hurts Ocelot here.

Auron > Bowser: 60%
-augh why did I take Bowser > Auron. Still, there are a bunch of possible upsets here.

Sephiroth > Fox: 100%

Mario > Magus: 80%
-Big Boss really impressed last round, so he definitely stands a chance of winning here. Still, I think Magus will hold up better against Mario, he's just not the type to dominate as a winner.

Link > Vincent: 100%

Crono > Zero: 100%

Ganondorf > Luigi: 90%
-Mudkip is frightening, but Ganondorf and Luigi both had great first round performances, and Ganon shouldn't score too much SFF here.

Master Chief > Yuna: 90%
-MGS impressing and females loling makes this possible...but the gap is fairly large to be overcome. Liquid barely beat Alucard, after all.

Dante > Ada Wong: 50%
-This match could go any way without surprising.

Leon > Pikachu: 35%
-I'm still fairly confident in Vivi, though Pikachu definitely looks great.

Kratos > Kirby: 100%

Snake > Ryu Hayabusa: 100%

Squall > Aeris: 80%
-I certainly shouldn't call this before the ASV, but Aeris looked about as good as expected, and Sora's looking worse. And I had Squall > Aeris to start with, so...

Sonic > Sub-Zero (getting ahead of myself here): 60%

Gordon has a hugely hyped game coming out on PC/PS3/360 right before his match, and has a very dedicated fanbase behind him. So long as the Duke's not here, Gordon has a great chance of upsetting Subby.
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/2/2007 11:12:49 AM | message detail
Hayabusa was definitely a star, no one in their right mind would've taken him to beat Riku+Roxas votes. Master Chief second for turning a debated match into a beatdown, L-Block third for most awesome 20 minute opening ever.

honestly think KH characters have dropped to their pre-KH2 levels (though perhaps not that far of a drop). If you bring Riku back down to like 24% on BL, suddenly Hayabusa beating Riku 1-on-1 makes sense. If you assume Sora = Sora 2K4, Sora getting, say, 41% by the end of today would make sense. There's just no way Wesker could get that many votes against a Sora that got 46% on Mega Man.... heck, Sora would've been expected to triple Wesker (plus a little). But, Wesker has 25% against Sora, Daxter, and Lara Croft combined.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/2/2007 11:27:34 AM | message detail
2k3: KH Boost
2k4: KH drops.
2k5: KH2 Boost
2k6: KH drops?

We should have caught this >_>
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Feel my truth.
smitelf | Posted 10/2/2007 11:30:25 AM | message detail
From Tequilla Gundam
2k3: KH Boost
2k4: KH drops.
2k5: KH2 Boost
2k6: KH drops?

We should have caught this >_>


KH2 wasn't released in North America until '06, so no.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/2/2007 11:49:40 AM | message detail
It'd also be worth a mention that Sora = Aeris according to 2k4 while Aeris doubled Sora in 2k3!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2007 12:03:10 PM | message detail
Alright, here comes Sora. Maybe he'll make this look a little better by the end.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/2/2007 12:06:45 PM | message detail
Wesker's stalling with the afterschool vote? What is this sorcery?
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transience | Posted 10/2/2007 12:09:06 PM | message detail
Wesker stalled the before-school vote too, and looked like he'd win it at first. I said what.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/2/2007 12:10:04 PM | message detail
Meh why can't my fanboyism EVER give me an extra point or two in my bracket?
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/2/2007 12:17:20 PM | message detail
Mega Man > Yoshi

I have Knuckles in my bracket, but this still has potential to be debated. We've seen Yoshi fall apart against iconic characters before, Mega Man specifically. Irregardless of who wins there, Knuckles will be much closer to Yoshi than last round.

Samus > Scorpion

I still think Scorpion is worthless and his win over a pack of losers did lilttle to convince me otherwise. It's a tossup between him and Frog as far as I'm concerned.

Cloud > Marcus

One of my upset picks pre-contest, and looking pretty damn good now that we've seen the rest of round 1. Remember, Halo has come out since Marcus/Kefka, so a hearty boost from X-Box traffic isn't out of the question here. I think he'll impress here.

Auron > Bowser

Ryu took advantage of the Nintendo SFF and a stronger than expected Mewtwo to dominate last round, but I think Bowser (despite not being the same as he was in 2k5) is enough ahead of Ryu that this should be comfortable. I figure Auron is the leader of his pack of equal characters (him, Bowser, Yoshi, Dante, Zero etc.) and probably the closest character to the Squall/Ganon/Vincent trio, so I can't see him not coming first here.

Sephiroth > Fox

Meta-Knight rode his character design and Peach apathy to his round 1 win, but now he's up against a fan favourite in Fox. I think Fox has this one in the bag.

Mario > Magus

Magus looked like crap last round, but I don't think he's fallen that far.

Link > Vincent

What will be interesting to see here is how much Zelda and Bidoof leeche off of Link. Vincent will be putting up Noble Ninish numbers here.

Crono > Zero

Damn near lock status. Zero performed at or slightly below expectations while Raiden completely bombed to all hell. Even if it was the match pic, I can't see Raiden even making this interesting. What I want to see is how close Zero comes to Crono. 1 on 1 I'd say Crono with 56%, so Zero should be within 5% of Crono for me to feel good about his chances in round 3.

Ganondorf > Luigi

Luigi is another character that falls apart against stronger, more recognizable characters (see Luigi/Sonic, Luigi/Yoshi). Ganondorf should have this one in the bag.

Master Chief > Yuna

Yuna looked more like her 2k5 self last round, but that should be enough to put over over Lalucard. It wouldn't suprise me if those 2 have a nice 3-way race though.

Dante > Ada Wong

I don't want to write Balthier completely off, but Leon and Wesker impressing makes Ada look at least somewhat legit. Unless she crumbles against Dante enough for Balthier to squeak by

Leon > Pikachu

aww yeah go bt's bracket

Kratos > Kirby

aww yeah go bt's bracket

Snake > Ryu Hayabusa

I don't want to say this, but Ryu is clearly the favourite there for obvious reasons. I'm just hoping that it was more Kingdom Hearts dropping off the map than Ryu boosting to high-midcard levels.

Squall > Aeris

I still think it's a tossup between Aeris and Sora. Remember, Sora is only "bombing" because Wesker is looking to be much stronger than most of us had him.

Sonic > Sub-Zero (getting ahead of myself here)

My only concern is that Gordon was legit last year, and Subby has dropped off the face of the earth since last year. I'll wait to see their matches before calling this one.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Haste_2 | Posted 10/2/2007 12:18:59 PM | message detail
Come on, Wesker. Make two cuts in a row. Maybe you can start cutting consistantly, and combined with a rally... yes...victory. Besides, I'm supposed to miss 4 points in this division...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/2/2007 12:21:01 PM | message detail
I hate to tell you this, but Wesker could do these kind of cuts during the rest of the poll and Lara still would beat him =(


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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/2/2007 12:21:12 PM | message detail
So RE4 Wii boosting confirmed?

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Haste_2 | Posted 10/2/2007 12:24:40 PM | message detail
Zylo, that's why I said... "rally"! It would have to be an amazing one, though... is there an RE website or something we could send word to? :[

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Crimson Dragoon | Posted 10/2/2007 12:25:51 PM | message detail
RE fansites really didn't give a crap when I tried to rally Claire last year. =\
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~FFDragon. (at Work !!) The Cream of Resident Evil Fanboyism.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/2/2007 12:26:35 PM | message detail
People wouldn't rally for Wesker. Most people have Lara in their brackets, like most people had Frog and Phoenix.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/2/2007 12:27:06 PM | message detail
You can always try this site, not sure if itwould give him more than 3 or 4 votes tough..

http://www.residentevilfan.com/forums/
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
Haste_2 | Posted 10/2/2007 12:27:14 PM | message detail
Rallying for your bracket is DESPICABLE!

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
transience | Posted 10/2/2007 12:29:17 PM | message detail
I think Wesker going from losing the day vote to Kefka to going almost even with Lara Croft tells me this is a different Wesker than before for whatever reason. Lara's no day vote god (she's quite the faded icon), but she shouldn't be Kefka level either. if it weren't for that brutal morning vote...
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/2/2007 12:29:31 PM | message detail
RE fansites really didn't give a crap when I tried to rally Claire last year. =\

But this is Wesker, you can't be a big fan of the whole series and not like Wesker. He's like the mastermind that connects everything so well.

And hopefully the RE game will have him as the main character, and hopefully the game will be an awesome game (it seems like it will either be a very good game or a horrible thing to the series), so I guess there's always next year.....
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/2/2007 12:31:45 PM | message detail
Tomb Raider is really popular in Europe no? Is this match more confirmation of the Europe morning vote?

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
consolefreak | Posted 10/2/2007 12:34:48 PM | message detail
Tomb Raider is really popular in Europe no? Is this match more confirmation of the Europe morning vote?

TuRtLe


The only time Lara was behind was during the European morning vote.

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91/116. Today : Sora > Lara. Tomorrow : Gordon > Ike
*One_Winged_Ange*
HaRRicH | Posted 10/2/2007 12:42:14 PM | message detail
...why aren't we seeing any kind of drastic changes in the ASV right now?
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MnMZero | Posted 10/2/2007 12:45:17 PM | message detail
Look at that awesome Daxter day vote
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Proud Supporter of Zero
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2007 12:45:48 PM | message detail
Well you've got Daxter there too, and we know how well the PS2 plat formers do in the ASV. He's probably diluting a bit of Sora's ASV.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
voltch | Posted 10/2/2007 12:47:50 PM | message detail
If lara goes through can she honestly beat sora through the mass SFF?
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/2/2007 12:54:09 PM | message detail
So RE4 Wii boosting confirmed?

I'm trying to avoid calling for legitimate boosts and drops in this format; perhaps RE4-specific characters are just better suited in a four-way poll? RE has always been a relatively middle-of-the-pack series on GameFAQs, but so many gamers immediately fell in love with RE4 in 2005. I'm still amazed at how many fan-favorite and gaming publication lists it appears on. It is, inarguably, the FFVII of its series.

Besides, RE4Wii wasn't that big. True, it is considered the best overall version, but sales haven't really been indicative of a significant boost. I'm not sure if it's reached 300,000 in the States.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/2/2007 12:54:25 PM | message detail
People still think Sora has a chance next round? I'd be shocked if he finishes anywhere but last, personally.

Today's match has gotten me a little worried about Lara finishing in 2nd.
consolefreak | Posted 10/2/2007 12:56:41 PM | message detail
But yeah BT, Tomb Raider is pretty big over here. I just don't think Europe really matters on gameFAQs.

People still think Sora has a chance next round? I'd be shocked if he finishes anywhere but last, personally.

Today's match has gotten me a little worried about Lara finishing in 2nd.


You would be 'shocked'? Come on now.
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91/116. Today : Sora > Lara. Tomorrow : Gordon > Ike
*One_Winged_Ange*
swirIdude | Posted 10/2/2007 12:56:50 PM | message detail
Don't be so concerned! Ashe has already called Squall > Sora a lock.
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Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/2/2007 12:58:39 PM | message detail
Yes, shocked. He's not only getting hit by the Square vote split, but he'll get hit even harder by the SFF from Squall and Aeris. Sora is going to look terrible.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/2/2007 1:09:40 PM | message detail
I'm trying to avoid calling for legitimate boosts and drops in this format

Is there a reason for that? Nobody stays consistent between years, and obviously we're seeing changes this year from last year. They may be more difficult to identify, but they're still there.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
swirIdude | Posted 10/2/2007 1:11:09 PM | message detail
The logic of a KH decline would help my Squall > Aeris pick but utterly destroy my Snake > Riku pick. I guess I can't have it both ways.
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Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
HaRRicH | Posted 10/2/2007 1:11:31 PM | message detail
Now that we're seeing some of today's match, I'm reposting and editing a post I made from last night:





Question: if this was 2k3, how would a Squall/Aeris/Sora match go?


We already know that Sora got doubled by Aeris head-to-head that year, and 2k4 suggests Sora was equal to her. It's also obvious that Squall would have hurt Sora some more, though I don't think Squall could have taken a LOT more from Sora-fans who preferred him over Aeris already...not to mention that Aeris was statistically higher than Squall that year anyway (attribute that to Samus if you wish). Would 20%-25% be reasonable for Sora in this three-way for 2k3?

[Psst, this is the part where I relate it to the next round with shaky stuff with no definitive theory. Take this as you will.]

Regardless, whatever number Sora lands at in 2k3 with those two against her...that gets to go up since KH:CoM got him some handheld-exposure (2k5 never reliably showed us what it did) and KH2 was not only rather popular but also made Sora a much more likable character in his own series. This increase in numbers for him will most likely be at Aeris's expense, since Squall is well-liked in the series as well. Aeris also didn't look like she did in 2k2/3 last year either, and I doubt FF:AC helps her much in this new SFF-fest...

...and according to today's match, head-to-head, Aeris would get at least 25.5% while Squall would get at least 35%.; if you try to jump the gun (not recommended), Aeris gets about 42% on him. Sora would take a substantial amount of that if he could get 20%-25% in 2k3, and it'd be worth mentioning that Aeris would be the only non-lead FF character of the three. That puts her in a rather difficult position, though with these three together it could really go crazy.

It would also be worth considering how well Squall's fanbase from the KH series holds up to Sora. That's something that seems very intriguing to me since KH revitalized Squall and we saw him perform horribly in 2k2 before KH came about, KH2 supposedly revitalized Sora from simply being a main character in KH, and Sora's the lead in these games Squall starred in. If the series has done Squall a lot of good (and it certainly has) and Sora can take most of that support away (very debatable), then -- if Aeris managed to hold strong -- Squall could fall to second place. Again, these three together could go crazy.

Then throw in Lara.


Any thoughts on anything I threw out there?
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/2/2007 1:15:38 PM | message detail
2k3 threeway? Well, Aeris is stronger then and Squall is weaker, so I guess they compensate each other. As for percentages...

Squall: 42%
Aeris: 43%
Sora: 15%
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
swirIdude | Posted 10/2/2007 1:17:27 PM | message detail
There are WAY too many possible scenarios in Squall/Aeris/Sora/Lara for me to be confident in ANY result (except maybe Lara not advancing). I think I'll just wait for the match!
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Squall > Sora is a lock. ~Lady Ashe
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/2/2007 1:20:41 PM | message detail
Sora's afterschool vote isn't too bad here. It's a noticeable 5% swing in updates. Granted, I thought he'd be averaging something close to 45%, but still 42-43 isn't terrible, especially considering Wesker is uhh...doing...stuff.
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CB6 - 87/116; Oracle - 21st
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/2/2007 1:35:11 PM | message detail
Sora definitely has a chance next round. That being said, I had the guy at 47% today and I was still gonna take Aeris over him... it's not really dependent so much on percentages, though today's performance shouldn't inspire CONFIDENCE.
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/2/2007 1:37:29 PM | message detail
Sora should have more than a shot next round if only because Aeris and Squall will be hurt by LFF more than Sora.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/2/2007 1:38:40 PM | message detail
And I'm *way* more inclined to say this is a product of Lara overrating (and maybe Sora struggling against fodder as per usual if you're wondering about him) than it is Wesker boosting from RE4: Wii. Seriously now, he's barely in the game. Most casuals wouldn't have a clue about him (much like his role in the other RE games, which is why he's so weak, imagine that!). Look to Leon and Ada if you wish to argue a boost, but not Wesker. I'd attribute this to RE boosting in general or even Umbrella Chronicles hype before RE4: Wii.
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
trannyscience | Posted 10/2/2007 1:38:56 PM | message detail
didn't RE4Wii sell like twice that, yo? I thought it was up near 600,000 in the states, and over a million worldwide.
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xyzzy
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consolefreak | Posted 10/2/2007 2:08:05 PM | message detail
Yes, shocked. He's not only getting hit by the Square vote split, but he'll get hit even harder by the SFF from Squall and Aeris. Sora is going to look terrible.

And how about Aeris? Will she not get hit by these things? Squall? Sora will look terrible, but so will Aeris and Squall, in comparison to Lara. How exactly would you be shocked if Squall > Sora occurred? Or Squall > Aeris > Sora > Lara? That would be a shocking occurrence?

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91/116. Today : Sora > Lara. Tomorrow : Gordon > Ike
*One_Winged_Ange*
MnMZero | Posted 10/2/2007 2:11:28 PM | message detail
I'm more worried about what Squall will do to Sora than Aeris. But if Sora can hold up somewhat against Squall, he can definitely beat Aeris. With 3 strong characters being in the poll, Sora only has to hold on to a reasonable chunk of his voters to be in position to beat Aeris.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/2/2007 2:14:03 PM | message detail
But KH, if this is Lara disappointing, then Daxter is basically neo-neo-Tanner. Daxter doing this bad and Sora disappointing makes it seem like this is all Wesker. He's doing a good 6-7% more than most of us expected.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Haste_2 | Posted 10/2/2007 2:23:09 PM | message detail
I've done a little analyzing on the bracket again... here are some conceivable upsets in my eyes that weren't really considered before the contest.

Round 2: Ganondorf > Mudkip > Luigi > Vergil... the odds of this happening is so low it's not funny, but I'm sure someone would've mentioned this if I didn't...

Round 2: Kratos > L-Block > Kirby > DK... this has been talked about already.

Round 3: Dante > Pikachu > Leon Kennedy > Ada Wong... yeah....laugh... laugh...

Round 3: Solid Snake > L-Block > Kratos > Ryu Hayabusa... yep. L-Block just needs his flat/Game Boy picture and he's set! Plus, Snake/Kratos/Hayabusa all wrapped in one = LFF among all three, maybe.

Round 3: Sonic the Hedgehog > Sub-Zero > Squall Leonhart > Aeris... we've yet to see him in action, but if Scorpion's any indication, Sub-Zero will do really well in this format. Squall and Aeris kill each other with LFF. One guru picked Sub-Zero in second in the third round.

Round 4: Master Chief > Dante > Ganondorf > Pikachu... this is assuming Pikachu pulls the upset over Leon Kennedy next round. How many had MC getting first, yet not Ganondorf in second, but rather Dante? Well, only four Gurus.

Again, these are only upsets that might as well be considered (even the slightest bit) now, contrary to opinions before the contest. If you think of another possible crazy upset, just say it!

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
SonicRaptor | Posted 10/2/2007 2:25:10 PM | message detail
Round 3: Dante > Pikachu > Leon Kennedy > Ada Wong... yeah....laugh... laugh...

It could happen, the SFF in that match would be insane and Leon & Ada would be leeching votes off of one another that Dante hadn't already taken. Pikachu just coasts along into second as a result.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
SonicRaptor | Posted 10/2/2007 2:29:27 PM | message detail
It's a shame that Daxter is doing as bad as he is (he's fodder, though nobody expected more), given that he was a much better character in the J&D series than Jak was.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/2/2007 2:33:20 PM | message detail
From Haste_2 Posted 10/2/2007 5:23:09 PM #295
Round 3: Sonic the Hedgehog > Sub-Zero > Squall Leonhart > Aeris... we've yet to see him in action, but if Scorpion's any indication, Sub-Zero will do really well in this format. Squall and Aeris kill each other with LFF. One guru picked Sub-Zero in second in the third round.

I considered Subby coming out of the fourpack of "S"s, but everyone called me stupid. D:
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/2/2007 2:35:34 PM | message detail
Looking at all the platforming characters that aren't Sonic/Nintendo/Mega Man...

Crash > Jak > Ratchet > Spyro = Rayman > Daxter. Funny how they went in order from best to worst, too. I'm a bit surprised that Ratchet managed to do better than three others...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
BesaidGuy | Posted 10/2/2007 2:38:13 PM | message detail
I have Kratos>DK. Though now, with L Block doing so well, and with Kirby and DK SFF each other in every conceivable way, Kratos>L-Block could happen very easily.


Also, I think this is a case of Wesker doing WAY better than expected during the day vote and Lara actually showing signs of previous forms and stealing away some of Sora's day vote, than of Sora bombing in any fashion.
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