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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 506

YoAriel33 | Posted 10/1/2007 9:51:05 PM | message detail
*blasts Wesker's Mercenaries theme*




*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19


*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/


*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html


*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm


*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones!
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php


*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 10 Lists:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2002stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2003stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/july2006stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2006stats.htm

RPguy's Hourly Poll Updates:
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/contest.html

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://adamrose.mit.edu/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/top10

Manual Poll Updater:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php
SHINE GET 64 | Posted 10/1/2007 9:51:34 PM | message detail
Buy Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles
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GIVE ME BACK MY SON
http://i222.photobucket.com/albums/dd132/raytan7585/kelloggvscapcom.jpg
Gaddswell | Posted 10/1/2007 9:52:16 PM | message detail
Link to theme?
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Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__
wavedash101 | Posted 10/1/2007 9:52:26 PM | message detail
Not with the crappy ass screen calibration I wont

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash! [no u cru]
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/1/2007 9:56:01 PM | message detail
Gaddswell: contact me on AIM.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/1/2007 9:56:24 PM | message detail
Wesker's mercenary theme isn't that great.

But it is good. >.>

Also Wesker > SORA FOR LIFE
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ 2007. NYY. Believe
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
DpObliVion | Posted 10/1/2007 9:56:33 PM | message detail
Or I suppose I'm not that close to being on the leaderboard, if they're not updated yet....

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket 86/116
trannyscience | Posted 10/1/2007 9:56:57 PM | message detail
Wesker's percentages

:39 - 29%
:44 - 28%
:49 - 27%
:54 - 26%
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
Gaddswell | Posted 10/1/2007 9:57:22 PM | message detail
I don't have AIM....
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Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2007 9:57:26 PM | message detail
Keep in mind that I'm 0/4 so far in matches where I'm just short of the leaderboard. I have Sora > Wesker, my alt bracket is at 88 right now. Obviously too early to call anything yet, but I'm liking this start.


I'm one of the 91's not on the leaderboard. I have the same problem as you.

Wesker to round 2 sadly confirmed!

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Janus5000 | Posted 10/1/2007 9:57:27 PM | message detail
How did Lara do against Chunners during the day last year?

She gained about 5-6%.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/1/2007 9:57:41 PM | message detail
:39 - 29%
:44 - 28%
:49 - 27%
:54 - 26%
:59 - 30% SURPRISE *****ES
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Shaggy_Heru | Posted 10/1/2007 9:57:45 PM | message detail
yay today I am tied with last place on the leaderboard. first time its happened since Division 1.

though unless Lara makes a comeback I won't ever make leaderboard.

~Shaggy~
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hello - hope your life sucks - tranny
creativename | Posted 10/1/2007 9:58:45 PM | message detail
So Ada was in this Mercenaries too?

Too early to jump to conclusions, but maybe the "Balthier not as huge of a flop" train is reasonable.


Unless Kefka's Angel pic really made him a high midcarder for a match...

A lot of people thought that really helped him, and I was one of them. I think Kefka is one of the people who's hurt by pics consistently (it's almost a part of his innate strength, because he almost never gets a decent pic). I've always thought a laughing sprite would make him a lot tougher.
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www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
Keno316 | Posted 10/1/2007 9:59:17 PM | message detail
WOOO! #50 on the Leader Board!


However, I notice that whenever I seem to get on the board, I screw up the next match...So Lara damn well better win here!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
smitelf | Posted 10/1/2007 9:59:41 PM | message detail
Wesker set up my bracket the bomb
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21
Just Some Person | Posted 10/1/2007 9:59:54 PM | message detail
Oof! Albert kicks Lara in the ovaries for a gain!

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Food.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2007 10:00:50 PM | message detail
So.... do you think Baconator will do a different theme for each round's match pics like CJay used to? Or will he just recycle the same pics over and over again?

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Yesmar | Posted 10/1/2007 10:00:56 PM | message detail
So Ada was in this Mercenaries too?

Apparently, but that would have been in play in 2006. There's a whole separate secret part of the game that revolves around her in the PS2 (Wii as well?) version, so I imagine that for her, that would be more relevant.
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"Look out-- It's Liquids and Gases!"
Master Moltar | Posted 10/1/2007 10:01:10 PM | message detail
Best 1st topic stats post since lately.

And how is Wesker winning WITH THAT PIC?
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Wesker/Daxter/Lara/Sora - Bracket: Sora > Lara - Vote: Wesker (97/116)
creativename | Posted 10/1/2007 10:01:18 PM | message detail
I was hoping for more distance between Sora and Lara here, it's not looking great for Sora - though both should spike in the day.

But, this contest has been casual-friendly so far, and Lara is pretty casual. Also she's seemed to have a bit of a mini-resurgence in the past year, I've seen her in some ads (don't know what for). She might be slightly stronger than in the past.

Still, I hope that Sora can at least maintain this 15 point gap between them.
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wavedash101 | Posted 10/1/2007 10:01:45 PM | message detail
Its was in the Wii version

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash! [no u cru]
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/1/2007 10:02:00 PM | message detail
Separate Ways (Ada's 3-5 hour bonus quest) is available on the Wii version.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/1/2007 10:02:03 PM | message detail
While most of that percentage shift was probably Chun Li's doing (Lara gained I think 2% in the day against Alyx Vance, albeit at a preposterously high percentage), Lara probably has this match well in hand if she keeps it within striking range. Though the true night vote has yet to begin, if Wesker wants to make a move...

Well at least Sora's sucking right now and that's all that matters
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2007 10:02:05 PM | message detail
Still, Lara bombing here kind of helps the Squall > Sora train. Lara squeaking by in that match was based on her impressing last year.

Hmmm, more fodder for my high-seed theory?

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
smitelf | Posted 10/1/2007 10:02:57 PM | message detail
Wow is Sora sucking. KH drop? Sora sucks, Riku sucks, even Squall didn't do as well as I thought he would.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21
DpObliVion | Posted 10/1/2007 10:03:28 PM | message detail
I guess I should've realized the stats hadn't been updated when I wasn't that close on the previous day, and I only got half points on the last match.....

Dumbass....

Oh well. Wesker follows up the stall with a bit of a gain. Good job, hang in there.

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket 86/116
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/1/2007 10:03:33 PM | message detail
Holy crap, Daxter. I gave you 12%, bastard! Move your butt!
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
wavedash101 | Posted 10/1/2007 10:03:44 PM | message detail
Squall didnt do good?
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash! [no u cru]
Lopen | Posted 10/1/2007 10:04:01 PM | message detail
Squall did fine.

Sora's kinda sucking, but I seriously don't think 45% is out of the question for him. Give him time.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
trannyscience | Posted 10/1/2007 10:04:30 PM | message detail
Sora's going nowhere but up here.

and again, this early vote should be Lara's worst time -- worse than her night vote. look at some other "casual" type characters - Jak, probably Crash, hell, even Ratchet -- they all took their hardest hits early.

she doesn't have this won, that's for sure, but Wesker needs to do something, and quick.
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xyzzy
"And just to clear up any remaining confusion, tranny > icon." -Shaggy
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 10/1/2007 10:04:47 PM | message detail
A lot of people got this match right so it really hurt the ones that didn't. 9 people fell off the Top 50 today. whoWalt43210, Azp2k32, dragoncrazer, user345, zorsmobile, warrant6767, JackTheGhoul, Leonhart44 and greyfox102 did not have Squall > Aeris as yesterday's winners.

Only 2 people on the Top 50 who got the match half right survive. PhiloSOULpher and TacoAssassin also did not have Squall > Aeris as yesterday's winners.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/1/2007 10:05:39 PM | message detail
*BLASTS WESKER'S MERCENARIES THEME*

YEAH BABY.

~*ST*~
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Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=37308859
smitelf | Posted 10/1/2007 10:05:44 PM | message detail
Squall didn't do badly, but I thought he'd do better.

This is the first hour, though...Sora could still be fine...
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2007 10:05:48 PM | message detail
I think it's hilarious though. Of all the RE characters that made the field this year, the only ones that impressed completely embarassed themselves previously.

I'm trying to put a spin on this to make my Zero upset look good, but I think this is a stretch even for me.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
greatone10 | Posted 10/1/2007 10:05:48 PM | message detail
Lara Croft WILL NOT DIE!
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/1/2007 10:06:15 PM | message detail
I think Sora is doing well enough here. Lara steals casual support, and like creative stated, might have had a resurgence, and Wesker does have people who'd die for him. If he's able to hit 44%, I'd actually consider this a good performance.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lopen | Posted 10/1/2007 10:07:21 PM | message detail
I'll do it for ya. Wesker is stronger = Lloyd is stronger = POWER ZERO VOTE SIPHON.

Zero for round 3!
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Seginustemple | Posted 10/1/2007 10:07:32 PM | message detail
So you think in the day Sora will rob Lara's casual votes from her? I'd certainly think so.
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If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula
creativename | Posted 10/1/2007 10:07:39 PM | message detail
How could only 23% have correctly predicted Squall 1st in that match? That doesn't sound right at all.
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/1/2007 10:07:44 PM | message detail
Well at least Sora's sucking right now and that's all that matters
Wow is Sora sucking. KH drop? Sora sucks, Riku sucks, even Squall didn't do as well as I thought he would.

It must be cliche by this point, but geez, is it really fair to say Sora is sucking when we honestly (still) have no idea what this format does to characters? This isn't like in previous contests when we had the lolxsts to fall back on. This is a four way poll with the only previous results being the earlier matches of this contest. Our expectations are the only things "sucking" is being based on, and, as this contest has shown, our expectations have more than once been off the mark.

That said, go Sora, and just wait till the kiddies wake up!
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One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. ~ Lemony Snicket
The Real Truth | Posted 10/1/2007 10:07:55 PM | message detail
Come on Wesker don't suck.
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smitelf | Posted 10/1/2007 10:08:02 PM | message detail
Yeah, I think I'm overreacting here, I forgot how likely it is that Wesker is experiencing a rally in the wee hours.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21
HaRRicH | Posted 10/1/2007 10:08:20 PM | message detail
Leonhart44 [...] did not have Squall > Aeris as yesterday's winners.

You know it's an alt when.....
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
creativename | Posted 10/1/2007 10:08:52 PM | message detail
I'm trying to put a spin on this to make my Zero upset look good, but I think this is a stretch even for me.

Hah! :)
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BesaidGuy | Posted 10/1/2007 10:09:00 PM | message detail
Anyone else think Daxter's epically low votals will make this match appear different than it really is?
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FuturamandFFX/TheRealoSix
AndyManCan's favorite user
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/1/2007 10:09:08 PM | message detail
It must be cliche by this point, but geez, is it really fair to say Sora is sucking when we honestly (still) have no idea what this format does to characters? This isn't like in previous contests when we had the lolxsts to fall back on. This is a four way poll with the only previous results being the earlier matches of this contest. Our expectations are the only things "sucking" is being based on, and, as this contest has shown, our expectations have more than once been off the mark.

Sora sucks
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2007 10:10:55 PM | message detail
I think Daxter's low percentage is a result of Wesker being stronger than most of us gave him credit for. A lot had Daxter at 10% with Wesker in the high teens.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Master Moltar | Posted 10/1/2007 10:11:00 PM | message detail
Sora's sucking. Daxter's sucking. Lara's sucking. Everything is sucking.

Except for Wesker Mercenaries Theme, which is rocking.

*This post was sponsered by Umbrella Corporation. Remember, when you experience a zombie outbreak, call Umbrella, and we'll handle it in 3 games or less.*
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Wesker/Daxter/Lara/Sora - Bracket: Sora > Lara - Vote: Wesker (97/116)
smitelf | Posted 10/1/2007 10:11:41 PM | message detail
It must be cliche by this point, but geez, is it really fair to say Sora is sucking when we honestly (still) have no idea what this format does to characters?

I think by this point we have something to base "sucking" and "not sucking" on. Sure, the x-stats are nearly useless, but we've seen a couple dozen matches now, so what constitutes a decent performance based on the approximate level of the competition is fairly easy to see. If Sora gets >45%, that would be impressive. If he gets <40%, that would be pretty bad, IMO. Anything between those two numbers is expected.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21
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