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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 505

HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/1/2007 9:52:59 AM | message detail
So much for this match. Oh well.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
ZFS | Posted 10/1/2007 9:57:45 AM | message detail
Zero needs to not have dropped since 2k4/2k5 to be able to take advantage of the Square SFF, but if Ryu H can beat Riku/Roxas combined, I can't see why Zero is such an unlikely upset there considering we saw Crono/Vincent before and that resulted in a 55-45 split.

Ignoring the fact that Link is in that match, which can only be a detriment to Zero, it helps that both Vincent and Crono are much stronger than Zero was. Hayabusa didn't simply take advantage of the split fanbase between the two -- he outdid both of them combined. That speaks of his own strength as opposed to any split in the fanbase.

You'd have to assume that any SFF, or LFF whatever you want to call it, would split evenly in such a manner that hinders both of them to such a degree that they get brought down to Zero's level. Nuh uh -- ain't happening. Both of them will finish ahead of Zero without much problem there. Anything can happen in this format, but Zero finishing fourth there is a guarantee. I'd put money on that.

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let's mosey
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2007 9:59:31 AM | message detail
Replace Zero with say... Dante, who I figure would be roughly equal to Zero, is it still a guarentee?

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/1/2007 10:03:12 AM | message detail
Dante equals Zero?
Yeah, Luigi kills Yoshi.
lol bt
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ZFS | Posted 10/1/2007 10:06:06 AM | message detail
I could see Dante getting close to third there, but I have no idea where you're getting that Dante and Zero are equal.

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let's mosey
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/1/2007 10:07:48 AM | message detail
I wouldn't set them equal, but I wouldn't peg Dante too much above Zero.
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/1/2007 10:08:36 AM | message detail
46% on Luigi vs 46% on Vincent.

luigi vs vincent go go go
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2007 10:14:54 AM | message detail
Luigi/Zero was a fluke. Come on, look at the votals there. 130,000. The highest votals of the first 2 rounds by a good margin.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/1/2007 10:16:35 AM | message detail
So what? Luigi's alway been a good vote draw, dating back to Luigi/Squall. Are you saying that Zero sucks with high votals? Cause then he's definitely screwed.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/1/2007 10:21:15 AM | message detail
Additionally, you're wrong about the votals. Auron/Sub-Zero and Snake/Squall, both round 2 matches, were higher.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2007 10:21:52 AM | message detail
I'm just saying, look at Luigi's matches. He only bombs against guys like Sonic or other Nintendo characters. Going by Yoshi/Dante, I'd think Luigi/Dante would be pretty damn close. I'd take Luigi over a good chunk of the field outside of the Noble Nine and the eliltes. I think he could give Auron a run for his money.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Buzzup | Posted 10/1/2007 10:25:59 AM | message detail
Rather than taking Luigi to beat Link, it's much more logical to assume that Zero just dropped because of the shift in 2k5, like a lot of other characters did.
JustForFun1988 | Posted 10/1/2007 10:26:51 AM | message detail
To be fair, even if you peg Zero to be as strong as Luigi due to SFF, i still think Dante is slightly stronger. Dante scored 49.5% on Yoshi while Luigi scored 45.5% on Yoshi.

Btw, Zero scoring 40% on his fourpack which consist of 3 fodder isn't really awe-inspiring.
Alright i give Zero another chance, if he can do respectable against Crono next round (not losing by more than 3-4%), i think he has a slight chance of getting second.
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Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu. Alt Account of someone who is lame and stupid
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2007 10:27:18 AM | message detail
Actually, looking at it, Luigi's match against Tifa was impressive too. Yeah, he's definitely in the same boat as Yoshi in that he'll fold when up against universally recognizable characters. I have a feeling he's going to bomb with Ganondorf and The Chief in the poll.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/1/2007 10:27:45 AM | message detail
Luigi bombs against other Nintendo characters? Somebody ought to tell Kirby. Somebody ought to tell Squall that Luigi won't bomb against him, either.

I'd love for Luigi to beat Auron, but there's not a chance of that happening. And if Luigi/Dante is close, guess what? Dante's still significantly ahead of Zero.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/1/2007 10:29:31 AM | message detail
Actually, looking at it, Luigi's match against Tifa was impressive too. Yeah, he's definitely in the same boat as Yoshi in that he'll fold when up against universally recognizable characters. I have a feeling he's going to bomb with Ganondorf and The Chief in the poll.

Do you even read what you type? Tifa isn't universally recognizable here now?
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Mustache...and green...
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2007 10:30:21 AM | message detail
3 fodder? Zero's fourpack is 2 low midcarders and a high fodder character. Compare that to Dante's fourpack of 2 bottom of the barrel fodders and someone who at most is high fodder.

I still think that grouping of Knuckles/Dante/Zero/Ryu/Luigi/Yoshi has stayed the same for the most part. The only disparity comes when you throw in SFF with Yoshi and Luigi jobbing to iconic characters like Sonic and Mega Man.

If Yoshi bombs to hell next round, I'll see that as a good sign for Zero.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2007 10:31:52 AM | message detail
Luigi only "bombed" against Squall because a) expectations were high for him b) Squall jobbed against Snake the very next round

Especially given 2003 as the year of Square and the subsequent Nintendo boosts, 40% on Squall back then is pretty damn good.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ZFS | Posted 10/1/2007 10:32:19 AM | message detail
I think the fact that you have to go through all of these different characters, these different scenarios, just to try to cover for Zero not being anywhere near up to snuff to compete with Vincent and Crono should be red flag after red flag. You're having to do way too much here just to attempt getting Zero up to a semi-reasonable level where he could potentially, against all odds, compete for a spot at second. You're essentially asking Zero -- who has repeatedly shown to not be at this level -- to compete with noble nine characters.

Why

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let's mosey
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2007 10:32:59 AM | message detail
Universally recognizable as in someone that 100,000+ people are going to for the most part recognize. Tifa is not as casually recognizable as say, Yoshi or Sonic the Hedgehog.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
voltch | Posted 10/1/2007 10:34:24 AM | message detail
Zero and Magus may have fallen but how would Bass and Robo compare?
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2007 10:34:42 AM | message detail
Zero's 2k3 and 2k4 performances (and his half-decent match against Mario all things considered) suggest to me strongly that Luigi completely fluked out last year. I'll wait for Zero to impress in round 2 before feeling really confident about his chances, but everything we've seen so far makes me feel good.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2007 10:35:39 AM | message detail
Bass would be high fodder at best. Robo would be somewhere between Marle and Frog.

Protoman is the only thing from Mega Man that I can see being respectable. He could potentially be a decent midcarder.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
voltch | Posted 10/1/2007 10:37:32 AM | message detail
aww man i always though Bass looked really cool at first i thought zero was him when people talked about him then i say the match pic.
then again i didn't realise who mega man was until i saw it was rockman.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/1/2007 10:37:46 AM | message detail
Luigi only "bombed" against Squall because a) expectations were high for him b) Squall jobbed against Snake the very next round

You could at least attempt to get the matches correct. And, no, 40% on Squall who got 40% on Samus isn't very good.

3 fodder? Zero's fourpack is 2 low midcarders and a high fodder character. Compare that to Dante's fourpack of 2 bottom of the barrel fodders and someone who at most is high fodder.

Or compare Zero's fourpack of fodder with Vincent's near elite and two midcarders. The loser of Vincent's fourpack could beat all three of Zero's companions, and Vincent still nearly matched Zero's percentage. That was a pathetic first round performance.
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ZFS | Posted 10/1/2007 10:39:27 AM | message detail
Hey, BT, when you see these four polls what goes through your head

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2526
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2553

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2543
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2558


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let's mosey
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/1/2007 10:39:50 AM | message detail
Universally recognizable as in someone that 100,000+ people are going to for the most part recognize. Tifa is not as casually recognizable as say, Yoshi or Sonic the Hedgehog.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2503

Hey, would you look at that! Tifa got ninety-six thousand votes!
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Mustache...and green...
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Lopen | Posted 10/1/2007 10:42:11 AM | message detail
Why are we continuing to argue about Zero based on past years? He couldn't get 40% on Lloyd Irving, HK-47, and Jak. Can we just say lol Zero and be done with it?
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
voltch | Posted 10/1/2007 10:43:50 AM | message detail
i bet zero hasn't dropped in strength at all.
it's just everyone else got way stronger due to high vote totals.
how does zero's current votals compare to his stronger years?
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
SonicRaptor | Posted 10/1/2007 10:44:49 AM | message detail
Bass would be high fodder at best. Robo would be somewhere between Marle and Frog.

Yes, Bass just isn't that well-known of a Mega Man character while Robo gets the CT vote but nothing outside of that.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/1/2007 10:48:26 AM | message detail
Man, didn't expect this match to be quite so...consistent.

Uh...go Squall, I guess.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 83/112; Oracle - 26th
voltch | Posted 10/1/2007 10:50:08 AM | message detail
come to think of it what games is bass on?
i only know him as the badass guy in rockman x8 or something like that on the GBA.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2007 10:51:06 AM | message detail
Hey, BT, when you see these four polls what goes through your head

I mention as I have been for the last hour that Luigi bombs against recognizable characters, and had Zero been there instead he would have got something closer to 43-44% on Sonicl.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lopen | Posted 10/1/2007 10:52:31 AM | message detail
And I guess Zero just bombs against Nintendo. Lloyd Irving just siphoned all of his votes. It all makes sense now.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2007 10:52:40 AM | message detail
Bass debuted in Mega Man 7 (Rockman 7 for you crazy asians) on the SNES. He also returned in Rockman and Forte (Forte being his Japanese name) which was only realeased in North America with the GBA remake. He also appeared in Mega Man 8 IIRC.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/1/2007 10:53:27 AM | message detail
And I guess Zero just bombs against Nintendo. Lloyd Irving just siphoned all of his votes. It all makes sense now.

That whole post gave me a chuckle
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
voltch | Posted 10/1/2007 10:54:19 AM | message detail
right,thanks.
and i get the feeling zero and shadow seem to be similar to each other like sonic and megaman.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2007 10:55:15 AM | message detail
How does Zero bomb against Nintendo? We were disappointed in his match against Mario until we saw Mario go through and destroy the rest of the bracket. Zero underperforming there makes sense given how easily Mario went on to beat the crap out of Crono.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/1/2007 10:55:38 AM | message detail
Raiden > Zero has a greater chance of happening than Zero > Vincent/Crono.

Let me repeat.
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Feel my truth.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/1/2007 10:56:26 AM | message detail
I think I heard someone say Raiden > Zero !!
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 83/112; Oracle - 26th
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2007 10:57:25 AM | message detail
Well, the difference between Zero and Shadow is that Zero's standalone games were well recieved while Shadow's was basically called a steaming pile by Sonic fans.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lopen | Posted 10/1/2007 10:57:38 AM | message detail
Oh my bad, you weren't attributing that to the suckage of Zero in round 1?

What was it? Robot SFF from HK-47? Jak being one of the few entrants that has less letters in his name?
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2007 10:59:43 AM | message detail
How did Zero suck? Taking Jak = HK = Lloyd and using Lloyd's 2k5 match with Zero, you get almost perfect match results. Switch Zero and Dante, and Dante scores the same on that fourpack.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Haste_2 | Posted 10/1/2007 11:01:38 AM | message detail
Here's a Link/Zero/Crono/Vincent scenario...assuming no LFF at all...and assuming Zero is at 29% on BL.

Link - 40%
Zero - 16%
Crono - 22%
Vincent - 22%

Wish I had Excel for Morgoth's formula, so I just used x-stats and pushed the characters slightly closer together... Yeah, I assumed Crono dropped to Vincent's level...sue me. If Crono and Vincent split to the point where they lose, say, 1/3 of their strength (that's an awful lot, I think), Zero can win. But, if Zero's stronger than the numbers say, they won't need quite as much LFF.

Link - 46%
Zero - 18%
Crono - 18%
Vincent - 18%

Here's an instance of Zero squeaking by. Is it possible for Crono and Vincent to lose 4% a piece? I don't think they could quite do it, but it's possible... you could hope Zero has a extra-devoted fanbase.

For the fun of it... let's say Zero's at his 2K3/4 level and no LFF:
Link - 40%
Zero - 18%
Crono - 20%
Vincent - 20%

Zero totally can win there! Most likely, anyway.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
JustForFun1988 | Posted 10/1/2007 11:02:45 AM | message detail
Bt, just asking a question, how many percent do you think Zero will get on Crono 1 vs 1.
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Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu. Alt Account of someone who is lame and stupid
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2007 11:05:25 AM | message detail
Zero/Crono 1v1, assuming Crono's 2k6 value... 44-46%ish

Round 2, if Zero doesn't come to within 5% of Crono, I'll give up on the upset.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
satai_delenn | Posted 10/1/2007 11:11:06 AM | message detail
Raiden > Zero would be awesome. Screw my own bracket, I want this to happen. XD
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My Contest Hero: Sonic the Hedgehog.
Currently playing: Aria of Sorrow, Silent Hill 2, Super Mario RPG
Lopen | Posted 10/1/2007 11:12:26 AM | message detail
Oh, so that was the extent of his abilities? Getting 40% on three high fodder ain't nothin. Dante's four pack isn't hugely outclassed by Zero's.

Amaterasu = HK-47/Lloyd.
Mac is slightly weaker than Jak, likely. Only slightly though.
Matt sucks.

Put Zero against Dante's four pack he probably turns out 43, 45 at the most.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Haste_2 | Posted 10/1/2007 11:23:11 AM | message detail
Raiden struggled to beat Sam Fisher... Zero's gonna beat Raiden much worse than Vincent/Crono will beat Zero.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Lopen | Posted 10/1/2007 11:32:41 AM | message detail
Akuma's getting a lot more violent this last hour or so, as we approach the ASV vote. Shades of things to come or a Lloyd Irvingesque tease? I could definitely see Akuma doing better with the ASV. He scares the kiddies, but those hipsters in school will be like badass.

I of course have given up him being able to win. 3000 votes is a bit much. But I'd love to see him start cutting off votes.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
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