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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 504

GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/30/2007 9:25:49 PM | message detail
blah, boring update
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Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction:~ Squall 38.38% - Flower Girl 26.94% - Akuma 21.16% - Geno 13.52% ~ Status: ?
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2007 9:26:10 PM | message detail
So, Squall should finish at above 35%. Impressive considering he's got Aeris and potentially Geno SFFing some votes away from him.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
creativename | Posted 9/30/2007 9:26:15 PM | message detail
I don't exactly agree with the wording of this, but at heart I think it's correct. Akuma is an obscure character (relative to Ryu) from a niche series (relative to Final Fantasy). I'm pretty new to this stuff, of course, but I don't see why he'd have a better day vote than anyone but Geno here.

I agree with you...though I think Geno should have a better day vote than Akuma.

I don't think Geno can come back though, because I see Akuma getting a lot of separation overnight. Akuma should own (relatively) with the overnight vote.
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Janus5000 | Posted 9/30/2007 9:26:39 PM | message detail
Why would Akuma follow SF2 trends? By your own account, he 'sucks and is only in the crappy Street Fighters that noone has ever played.' (e.g. not SF2)

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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
ZFS | Posted 9/30/2007 9:27:05 PM | message detail
Yeah. I'm not seeing Akuma having any type of notable day vote. It should by all means be Squall's here.

I can't remember -- has any Street Fighter character done well with the day vote? As in, above average? I know it's the morning where they just collapse, but I don't think any of them have had a particularly notable day vote. I wouldn't expect it out of Akuma if the others haven't, personally.

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creativename | Posted 9/30/2007 9:27:09 PM | message detail
look at Nightmare a couple days ago - that's what I expect out of him.

Hell no! :)

Seriously, that isn't what I expect at all. I expect him to have like totally opposite trends to Nightmare.
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creativename | Posted 9/30/2007 9:28:07 PM | message detail
What's this Squall/Geno SFF talk? Did I miss something?
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/30/2007 9:28:15 PM | message detail
Can you stop mentioning Squall SFFing Geno. Its ridiculous.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
I don't like Haley Scarnato
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2007 9:28:43 PM | message detail
Why would Akuma follow SF2 trends? By your own account, he 'sucks and is only in the crappy Street Fighters that noone has ever played.' (e.g. not SF2)

Because the wording you used implies a worse day vote than normal SF2 characters. That's pretty damn bad. Akuma needs at least 1000 vote cushion to be safe from Geno.

I would love to see Geno come back and take third though. He deserves it.

TuRtLe
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87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Who Cares? | Posted 9/30/2007 9:28:55 PM | message detail
I can't remember -- has any Street Fighter character done well with the day vote? As in, above average? I know it's the morning where they just collapse, but I don't think any of them have had a particularly notable day vote. I wouldn't expect it out of Akuma if the others haven't, personally.

Let's put it this way, if you aren't increasing % on an SF entry in the morning, you suck just as bad, if not worse, with the day vote.
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Current Points: 85
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ZFS | Posted 9/30/2007 9:28:55 PM | message detail
What's this Squall/Geno SFF talk? Did I miss something?

Just Black Turtle talking again!

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let's mosey
transience | Posted 9/30/2007 9:29:04 PM | message detail
Akuma's not the same as SF2. there's no reason to compare the two there. it's certainly possible he flops in the day, but that'd be like comparing FF7 trends to CT trends. they're just two different games and two different fanbases.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
paraboxx | Posted 9/30/2007 9:29:29 PM | message detail
Akuma isn't dated and old, he's more like a modern fighting game character.

SSF2T is 13 years old this year.

Even Alpha 3 is almost 10, if you want to go that route.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2007 9:29:54 PM | message detail
That's why I said potentially.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
transience | Posted 9/30/2007 9:30:22 PM | message detail
Alpha 3's that old? yeesh, I'm older than I thought.

isn't he in those MVC games? I guess those are old, too. is any fighting game "new" besides the new Soul Calibur games?
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
ZFS | Posted 9/30/2007 9:30:45 PM | message detail
Akuma's not the same as SF2.

He isn't, but I wouldn't dare hold him to the standards of the newer fighting characters like Nightmare. He's still very much a Street Fighter character.

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let's mosey
Keno316 | Posted 9/30/2007 9:30:56 PM | message detail
AWWW YEAH AERIS!!!
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/30/2007 9:31:03 PM | message detail
Why is Squall barely gaining on Aeris now?
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Demyx is better than Axel.
I don't like Haley Scarnato
Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2007 9:31:44 PM | message detail
FF7 hate vote wearing off
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Aeris/Akuma/Geno/Squall - Bracket: Squall > Aeris - Vote: Squall (93/112)
The Real Truth | Posted 9/30/2007 9:32:28 PM | message detail
Akuma's in Marvel vs. Capcom and Capcom vs. SNK2.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2007 9:33:11 PM | message detail
The fact that Akuma's doing this bad is testament to his lack of a fanbase seperated from the most hardcore Street Fighter fans. Ryu, Chun-Li, Ken and Bison all have the old-school inconicness behind them. Street Fighter 2 was an incredibly popular game back in the day. The later incarnations, not so much. The only people who've played the other Street Fighters are the people who already support Ryu/Chunners/Bison in these things. Everything points to Akuma bombing as bad, if not worse than normal SF characters in the day.

And don't bring up Nightmare, because Soul Calibur 2 was a multiplatform release that sold incredibly well and was easily the fighting game of choice from the last gen.

TuRtLe
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87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Gaddswell | Posted 9/30/2007 9:34:00 PM | message detail
Geno's finally under 20%. Looks like this match would stay constant like this for a while as Geno drops.
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Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__
creativename | Posted 9/30/2007 9:34:06 PM | message detail
Akuma's not the same as SF2. there's no reason to compare the two there. it's certainly possible he flops in the day, but that'd be like comparing FF7 trends to CT trends. they're just two different games and two different fanbases.

I'm not convinced, to tell the truth.

I still expect Geno to make this look closer (%-wise) against Akuma with the day vote. Though I think it'll get ugly for Geno overnight, so Akuma will be safe from an actual comeback.

But if anyone can choke away a big lead against Geno, I'd say Akuma was a prime candidate.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2007 9:34:07 PM | message detail
And we all saw how much Marvel vs Capcom helped Mega Man in his match with Link

o wate

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2007 9:34:33 PM | message detail
Akuma's doing bad? That's news to me.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Aeris/Akuma/Geno/Squall - Bracket: Squall > Aeris - Vote: Squall (93/112)
paraboxx | Posted 9/30/2007 9:34:59 PM | message detail
The only Marvel game that most people haven't completely forgotten about is MvC2, which was released in 2000. Akuma was in it, but he was basically decor - he wasn't top tier (more like Low IIRC), and he didn't play any sort of role in the "storyline".

So, no, the versus games probably aren't helping him much either.
ZFS | Posted 9/30/2007 9:35:56 PM | message detail
And we all saw how much Marvel vs Capcom helped Mega Man in his match with Link

...

dammit turtle dammit

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Eggplant Lord | Posted 9/30/2007 9:37:40 PM | message detail
Heh, say Geno is announced for Brawl tomorrow.

How close would he make it? <_<

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*watches*
o_o
creativename | Posted 9/30/2007 9:37:47 PM | message detail
Akuma's doing bad? That's news to me.

He's pretty close to expectations I think, but Geno doing this well strongly implies (not proves, but implies) that Squall/Aeris are leeching from each other more than expected. So that means Akuma is kinda doing worse than expected.

Though, I've expected him to flop for years. I remember he was REALLY hyped in these topics a couple years ago, and I never bought into it.
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transience | Posted 9/30/2007 9:37:57 PM | message detail
heh, if you want to talk about old -- Geno.

Geno didn't do much vs. Squall in 2005 during the day. that could be enough to top Akuma if he flops, but I think Geno would be lucky to get back to the percentage he's at right now. he's going to come down a lot, lot more.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/30/2007 9:39:02 PM | message detail
Akuma was hyped? Must have missed it.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2007 9:39:24 PM | message detail
So, I think we can add non-SF2 SF characters to the Do Not Nominate List

Less Akuma moar Cammy is what we need!

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
creativename | Posted 9/30/2007 9:39:35 PM | message detail
but I think Geno would be lucky to get back to the percentage he's at right now. he's going to come down a lot, lot more.

I agree, I think he'll finish significantly lower than where he's at right now. Like I said, I expect this to get ugly for Geno overnight.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/30/2007 9:39:57 PM | message detail
During the Villains contest, I think, Akuma hype was extremely high.
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ZFS | Posted 9/30/2007 9:40:26 PM | message detail
Yeah. Geno's going to be coming down a whole lot more from here. He's already under 20% and still falling pretty hard each update.

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let's mosey
creativename | Posted 9/30/2007 9:40:33 PM | message detail
So, I think we can add non-SF2 SF characters to the Do Not Nominate List

But...but...Dan!!
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paraboxx | Posted 9/30/2007 9:40:53 PM | message detail
...oh yeah, I forgot about CvS2.

That wasn't as mainstream as MvC anyway, though. And even it was released in 2002.

(...dammit why is the last good Capcom fighter five years old *mutters*)
Gaddswell | Posted 9/30/2007 9:41:02 PM | message detail
Geno % increase?
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Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__
Janus5000 | Posted 9/30/2007 9:41:19 PM | message detail
did Geno just stall Akuma

because I think he did
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
creativename | Posted 9/30/2007 9:41:27 PM | message detail
During the Villains contest, I think, Akuma hype was extremely high.

Yeah, that must have been it. I remember now - people were saying he'd be stronger than Bison, and when I disagreed it didn't go over well :)
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ZFS | Posted 9/30/2007 9:41:34 PM | message detail
what what geno

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/30/2007 9:41:35 PM | message detail
In Aeris Vs. Zelda, Aeris fell an average of 9.25% in the difference between her night and ASV.

In Yuna Vs. Zelda, Yuna fell an average of 5.6% in the difference between her night and ASV.

In Yuna Vs. Chun-Li, Chun-Li fell an average of 3.6% in her night and ASV.

So if Chun-Li trends=Akuma trends, add them together and then you have......

A tie. Gee That was anti-climactic.

Although personally I expect Akuma to do worse than Aeris in the day.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2007 9:41:50 PM | message detail
Whoa EC, what happened with the Oracle? I thought you missed yesterday or something because you dropped completely off, now you're ahead of me again.

That's a good thing I suppose, I have someone with the same # of missed days to compete with

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
creativename | Posted 9/30/2007 9:42:17 PM | message detail
Wow Villains Contest memories.

That contest sucked.

This one is great though :)
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transience | Posted 9/30/2007 9:42:52 PM | message detail
Akuma talk was all over the place in 2005. that was one of the bigger arguments -- him and Chun-Li.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
paraboxx | Posted 9/30/2007 9:43:36 PM | message detail
I don't think Cammy's really worth testing either, after seeing this. I'll say she might - might - do better than Akuma...but she's still going to be Chun Li Lite, and Chun Li isn't exactly an elite herself.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2007 9:44:01 PM | message detail
Geno stalll an anomaly? Or will Geno take the night vote and lose the day vote!?

What is this sorcery!?

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2007 9:44:46 PM | message detail
Chun-Li got stuck facing a bloated Yuna. Were that match to happen again, I'd expect it to be much much closer.

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2007 9:45:43 PM | message detail
And saying Cammy there was more fanboyism than anything else. I still maintain Guile is the only untested SF character to be worth a damn, and he isn't exactly the most photogenic character...

TuRtLe
~~~
87/112 in the contest. Next pick: Squall > Aeris
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Draco1214 | Posted 9/30/2007 9:45:57 PM | message detail
Chun-Li is Ocelot level at best, and Cammy wasn't even one of the original cast members of SF2. She's arguably do worse than Akuma.
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Currently Playing: Wild Arms 3, Persona 3
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